After ADP.. who are you taking? (1 Viewer)

[DeaLerZ]

Saw a recent discussion about the #2 overall pick. Got me thinking, there are a lot of question marks for who ends up close to the top at the RB position, and if the gamble is worth it.

Personally, I am deciding between Jamaal Charles, C.J. Spiller, Doug Martin, and Lesean McCoy... guys that are going to get 60+ catches, and 400-700 yards receiving as well as rushing for atleast 1300yds, and 6-7 tds....but needless to say this is a pretty difficult decision.. team offenses, offensive lines, overall usage, and durability come into play....

Jamaal Charles looks poised to have a monster year in Andy Reid's offense... could post similar to Brian Westbrook type numbers "80+ receptions are a real possibility" in the passing game, with of course the addition of 1300-1500 rushing yards as long as he can stay healthy...

Doug Martin is in the same offense, with what appears to be an improved defense with Darrelle Revis and Goldson... he is an every down back.. can he repeat last year's numbers? better yet can he improve on them?

Trent Richardson will definitely get around 50-60 receptions, and definitely has my vote out of all the other options to end up with the most Rushing TD's... the problem of course is can he stay healthy all year??

C.J. Spiller finally get the lions share of the carries appears to be in line for a huge year, especially when coaching staff has stated "we are going to feed him the fall until he literally throws up"... but this is still the Bills we are talking about.. and there are simply not enough scoring opportunities.. but Spiller is a rare talent with the ability to take any carry the distance

Ray Rice.. will continue be the focal point of the offense... but with the lack of veteran WR's and a true leader on defense.. you have to think that the Ravens offense takes a nose dive this year, and Rice although he will get his receptions as usual.. will not get as many yards from scrimmage as in previous years, and most likely less overall TD's

LeSean McCoy in Chip Kelly's run first offense... looks poised to have a bounceback year... two years ago he was the #1 RB in fantasy football.. can he do it again this year??
whose is your guy and give reasons please???

 

[Biabreakable]

Trent Richardson 290-370ra 4.1-4.5ypc 1189-1665yds 9-15TD 50-70rec 7.2ypc 360-504yds 1-3TD or 1549-2169yds 10-18TD

Reasons -http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index.php?showtopic=681964 I have since revised Trent Richardson's ypc upside due to discussion from this thread.

I don't see him on your list.

 

[avoiding injuries]

Voted Martin. TRich is close

 

[Late225]

I think Ray Rice needs to be in the discussion.

 

[Khy]

Voted for Charles... he's been 'my guy' since more or less the second Andy Reid signed on there. Recently I've felt like TRich and McCoy deserve to be in the discussion with him as well. However, I've still drafted Charles in 3 out of 4 redraft leagues between the 1.02-1.04 slots (other league I had 1.11 and obviously he was gone). I just feel like Charles is going to be a monster... we've seen what the man can do on a terrible team with one of the worst head coaches in the league. The thought of what he can do on a good offense with one of the best head coaches in the league is terrifying.

 

[DoubleG]

Gimme Trent - even though he aint on the list.

 

[Blick]

Foster, although he's not on your list. I don't understand how he's falling as far as he is in drafts. I don't like to gamble with my first round pick. The Hou O-line has looked as good as ever. He proven and will have rock solid production. Remember, he didn't play in last year's preseason either.

 

[Khy]

Foster, although he's not on your list. I don't understand how he's falling as far as he is in drafts. I don't like to gamble with my first round pick. The Hou O-line has looked as good as ever. He proven and will have rock solid production. Remember, he didn't play in last year's preseason either.

Umm... not true? Last year he went 19 rushes for 89 yards and a TD in the preseason. It was 2011 that he didn't play the preseason and missed 3.5 games. However, in 2011 we knew exactly what was wrong with him... this year we have no actual idea. We know he's having 'back pain' that's kept him out of the entire preseason. That scares me a lot. Not to mention the Texans saying that he's going to be eased back in early with Tate taking a lot of the early carries and Kubiak saying that Tate will have a large role all year. It's looking like for the first season Foster and Tate may have a split. Something like 60/40 or 70/30, either way more than it's ever been. I personally think you'd be insane to draft Foster at 1.02 this season.

 

[Blick]

Foster, although he's not on your list. I don't understand how he's falling as far as he is in drafts. I don't like to gamble with my first round pick. The Hou O-line has looked as good as ever. He proven and will have rock solid production. Remember, he didn't play in last year's preseason either.

Umm... not true? Last year he went 19 rushes for 89 yards and a TD in the preseason. It was 2011 that he didn't play the preseason and missed 3.5 games. However, in 2011 we knew exactly what was wrong with him... this year we have no actual idea. We know he's having 'back pain' that's kept him out of the entire preseason. That scares me a lot. Not to mention the Texans saying that he's going to be eased back in early with Tate taking a lot of the early carries and Kubiak saying that Tate will have a large role all year. It's looking like for the first season Foster and Tate may have a split. Something like 60/40 or 70/30, either way more than it's ever been. I personally think you'd be insane to draft Foster at 1.02 this season.

Point taken, but he at least should be on this list. The downside is needing to draft Tate. However, (and this has be beat to death on these boards) he's the best insurance policy. Honestly, I'd be happy with a 70/30 split. Houston ran the ball 508 times last year. Assuming 10% goes to QBs, WR, etc., that leaves 457 carries for Tate and Foster. At 70%, foster gets 320 carries. Throw in another 40 catches and he gets somewhere around 350 touches.

 

[DeaLerZ]

Foster, although he's not on your list. I don't understand how he's falling as far as he is in drafts. I don't like to gamble with my first round pick. The Hou O-line has looked as good as ever. He proven and will have rock solid production. Remember, he didn't play in last year's preseason either.

Umm... not true? Last year he went 19 rushes for 89 yards and a TD in the preseason. It was 2011 that he didn't play the preseason and missed 3.5 games. However, in 2011 we knew exactly what was wrong with him... this year we have no actual idea. We know he's having 'back pain' that's kept him out of the entire preseason. That scares me a lot. Not to mention the Texans saying that he's going to be eased back in early with Tate taking a lot of the early carries and Kubiak saying that Tate will have a large role all year. It's looking like for the first season Foster and Tate may have a split. Something like 60/40 or 70/30, either way more than it's ever been. I personally think you'd be insane to draft Foster at 1.02 this season.

Point taken, but he at least should be on this list. The downside is needing to draft Tate. However, (and this has be beat to death on these boards) he's the best insurance policy. Honestly, I'd be happy with a 70/30 split. Houston ran the ball 508 times last year. Assuming 10% goes to QBs, WR, etc., that leaves 457 carries for Tate and Foster. At 70%, foster gets 320 carries. Throw in another 40 catches and he gets somewhere around 350 touches.

Foster and T-Rich added to discussion... it's early.. meant to put them on there hah..

Great discussion so far though.. and I definitely agree with the discussion on Foster.. this might be not be the year to take him at #2

 

[Khy]

Foster, although he's not on your list. I don't understand how he's falling as far as he is in drafts. I don't like to gamble with my first round pick. The Hou O-line has looked as good as ever. He proven and will have rock solid production. Remember, he didn't play in last year's preseason either.

Umm... not true? Last year he went 19 rushes for 89 yards and a TD in the preseason. It was 2011 that he didn't play the preseason and missed 3.5 games. However, in 2011 we knew exactly what was wrong with him... this year we have no actual idea. We know he's having 'back pain' that's kept him out of the entire preseason. That scares me a lot. Not to mention the Texans saying that he's going to be eased back in early with Tate taking a lot of the early carries and Kubiak saying that Tate will have a large role all year. It's looking like for the first season Foster and Tate may have a split. Something like 60/40 or 70/30, either way more than it's ever been. I personally think you'd be insane to draft Foster at 1.02 this season.

Point taken, but he at least should be on this list. The downside is needing to draft Tate. However, (and this has be beat to death on these boards) he's the best insurance policy. Honestly, I'd be happy with a 70/30 split. Houston ran the ball 508 times last year. Assuming 10% goes to QBs, WR, etc., that leaves 457 carries for Tate and Foster. At 70%, foster gets 320 carries. Throw in another 40 catches and he gets somewhere around 350 touches.

I guess he should at least be on this list? It's of the opinion of almost every fantasy football pro in the country that Foster isn't in the discussion for Top 3 this season. Now he's starting to fall out of the top five on most of them. Don't think I'm not a Foster supporter; I've owned him in most of my redrafts and keepers since his 2010 breakout season. This just happens to be the season where I say "Nope sorry". I just see to many upside picks that have better floors with little to no injury concerns. I'd rather have ADP, Charles, Spiller, McCoy, Martin, Richardson over Foster right now. In that same token? I'd rather have Calvin or Graham over him right now. Foster for me this year is one of those guys where I'm willing to draft around him and hope someone else takes him so I don't have to do it.

 

[DeaLerZ]

Voted for Charles... he's been 'my guy' since more or less the second Andy Reid signed on there. Recently I've felt like TRich and McCoy deserve to be in the discussion with him as well. However, I've still drafted Charles in 3 out of 4 redraft leagues between the 1.02-1.04 slots (other league I had 1.11 and obviously he was gone). I just feel like Charles is going to be a monster... we've seen what the man can do on a terrible team with one of the worst head coaches in the league. The thought of what he can do on a good offense with one of the best head coaches in the league is terrifying.

This is definitely why I am leaning toward Charles as well. Andy Reid has basically made it known that he sees Charles as Westbrook 2.0, and that he is a great receiver. They are definitely going to get him involved early and often in the game plan. I could easily see him getting 75+ receptions in this offense.. and with that speed/agility could create an absolute monster season for him

 

[bucsbaby]

Assuming PPR, Charles if you can start 3RB, Calvin if only 2RB and 3WR.

 

[Leonidas]

I go AP > Martin > Charles > ?Constantly changes at #4?

 

[DeaLerZ]

I am curious why more people aren't gunghoe about taking C.J. Spiller ... he seems poised for a monster season

 

[Late225]

I am curious why more people aren't gunghoe about taking C.J. Spiller ... he seems poised for a monster season

I see the Bills offense as a slightly better version of the Jets. I'm also a fan of Fred Jackson and don't like him there.

 

[DukeBroadway]

I took Charles #1 overall in a league. ADP wll have a nice year. I was hoping to pick in the 2-4 spot. Got #1 and just took my guy anyways.

 

[Cyclones]

I took Charles at 1.03 (after ADP and Foster) and would have taken Charles at #2, but I think Spiller/McCoy/Richardson could sneak in there as well.

 

[Stryker]

I Am Deciding Between Charles And McCoy, Leaning Towards McCoy...

 

[Stryker]

I Am Deciding Between Charles And McCoy, Leaning Towards McCoy...

 

[SaintsInDome2006]

Any thoughts on Martin vs Charles? Voted Martin.

Injury risk? - Martin +; I don't know if this is fair or not but I give Martin an ad there.

Touches? - Push: Martin got something like 365-370 last year I believe. Charles is supposed to get 320-330 this year including 70-80 catches, but then again the injury risk is a factor here, maybe he shouldn't be getting all those touches. I see more carries and more receptions for Martin this year; Charles as well obviously but again durability issue there.

Use - Charles +; I saw KC in the 1st PS game vs NO - it was all Charles runs and screens, with some passes to Fasano intermixed, then got the TD at the goalline. On the other hand Reid gets a bit pass obsessed, the run game can disappear. No real sense of the Chiefs as a team, good tackles but who knows what else on the line, few other outlets besides Bowe, can these guys maintain drives? - Schiano is the opposite, just runs and runs and runs. Lots of WR help to maintain drives. No real TE, no Blount, excellent o-line. TB more likely to be in position to run down the clock.

Explosiveness, YPC, YAC - Charles +.

Age - Martin +; he is just in his 2nd year, he will get better. Last year he was 2nd in my 0.5 PPR league so....

Schedule - Charles +; Martin gets NO twice, CAR twice, week 5 bye, closes BUF, SF, @ StL. - Charles gets Oak twice, SD twice, week 10 bye, closes @Was, @Oak, Indy.

I have no arguments against Foster, Richardson, McCoy and Spiller, I just like Martin & Charles better here.

 

[Rookie_Whisperer]

Any thoughts on Martin vs Charles? Voted Martin.

Injury risk? - Martin +; I don't know if this is fair or not but I give Martin an ad there.

Touches? - Push: Martin got something like 365-370 last year I believe. Charles is supposed to get 320-330 this year including 70-80 catches, but then again the injury risk is a factor here, maybe he shouldn't be getting all those touches. I see more carries and more receptions for Martin this year; Charles as well obviously but again durability issue there.

Use - Charles +; I saw KC in the 1st PS game vs NO - it was all Charles runs and screens, with some passes to Fasano intermixed, then got the TD at the goalline. On the other hand Reid gets a bit pass obsessed, the run game can disappear. No real sense of the Chiefs as a team, good tackles but who knows what else on the line, few other outlets besides Bowe, can these guys maintain drives? - Schiano is the opposite, just runs and runs and runs. Lots of WR help to maintain drives. No real TE, no Blount, excellent o-line. TB more likely to be in position to run down the clock.

Explosiveness, YPC, YAC - Charles +.

Age - Martin +; he is just in his 2nd year, he will get better. Last year he was 2nd in my 0.5 PPR league so....

Schedule - Charles +; Martin gets NO twice, CAR twice, week 5 bye, closes BUF, SF, @ StL. - Charles gets Oak twice, SD twice, week 10 bye, closes @Was, @Oak, Indy.

I have no arguments against Foster, Richardson, McCoy and Spiller, I just like Martin & Charles better here.

I went Martin just because of durability concerns in my mind for Charles. I just drafted from the 2 in a $100 PPR redraft and stewed over the pick for quite a while. Tough call though

 

[Dancing Bear]

Peterson will not duplicate his monster 2012 season. Foster will once again out perform all RB's in 2013!

He has the talent, the surrounding cast and the opportunity.

Foster averages 19.0 ppg - his best year was 20.6 ppg

No one else is even close.

Peterson averages 17.0 ppg - his best year was 18.8 ppg

McCoy averages 13.0 ppg - his best year was 18.8 ppg

Rice averages 13.3 ppg - his best year was 17.4 pp.

Martin averaged 16.5 ppg last year

Charles averages 11.2 ppg - his best year was 15.1 ppg

Richardson averaged 13.6 ppg last year

Spiller averaged 13.6 ppg last year

 

[ckalltheway]

In a 14 team PPR league where QBs get 6 points per passing touchdown, ADP went first and I was second and picked Calvin Johnson. Because the wait is so long from 2 to my next pick at 27, I was concerned that the best WRs, RBs and QBs would be gone, after ADP I didnt like any if the backs enough to pick them at 2. In my league Doug Martin's big game was over 20% of his points for the whole year, too worried about injuries with foster and charles, buffalo sucks and i dont see enough upside in mccoy in my league compared to megatron.The only other back i was thinking of at the time was the solid but unspectacular Ray Rice. Catches lots of balls.

What happened after really surprised me. Brees and Rodgers are usually top 5 in our league and most people expected me to take Rodgers at 2 but everyone after me went rb instead and Rodgers dropped to 9 with Brees to 11 and Manning at 12 then a bunch of wrs and more rbs went as well as jimmy graham got picked. I was very excited to get Chris Johnson at 27 and then Brady at number 30 overall. I picked Brady as I couldnt believe he made it to me and thought I would start a QB run but after Cam Newton at 36 no qbs were picked for another round or so when the year before 6 qbs were picked in the 1st round. I was very jealous of another guy in my league that was able to wait until the 5th for Stafford.

Short story long, with the depth at RB and QB this year I am happy that I stuck to picking the absolute best WR in the draft after the best RB was gone.

Had I picked Rodgers at 2 the draft would have gone in a much different direction and i expect that like previous years more qbs would have been drafted quickly. Brady has been a 1st rounder in my league for years and I'm thankful he was still in the 3rd.

 

[ckalltheway]

For the sake of discussion after I picked Calvin the next picks were...

Martin

Foster

Rice

Charles

McCoy

Spiller

Rodgers

Dez Bryant

Brees

P Manning

Richardson

Lynch

A Morris

Forte

AJ Green

Jones Drew

B Marshall

SJax

J Graham

De Thomas

Ridley

R White

Ju Jones

Fitzgerald

Chris Johnson to me

Randall Cobb

D MacFadden

Tom Brady to me

 

[ckalltheway]

Given the 4 RBs in the question from the OP I would go Mccoy. Or Rice...

 

[ckalltheway]

Given the 4 RBs in the question from the OP I would go Mccoy. O

 

[pizzatyme]

For me this is tough!!!

I like Charles, McCoy, and Rice in that order.

Charles because Alex Smith loves to check down (PPR)

McCoy because I see him with 350 touches and lots of catches

Rice because I don't see a possession WR and I think it is him. He could catch 100 balls this year IMO.

 

[Chaka]

Foster, although he's not on your list. I don't understand how he's falling as far as he is in drafts. I don't like to gamble with my first round pick. The Hou O-line has looked as good as ever. He proven and will have rock solid production. Remember, he didn't play in last year's preseason either.

Umm... not true? Last year he went 19 rushes for 89 yards and a TD in the preseason. It was 2011 that he didn't play the preseason and missed 3.5 games. However, in 2011 we knew exactly what was wrong with him... this year we have no actual idea. We know he's having 'back pain' that's kept him out of the entire preseason. That scares me a lot. Not to mention the Texans saying that he's going to be eased back in early with Tate taking a lot of the early carries and Kubiak saying that Tate will have a large role all year. It's looking like for the first season Foster and Tate may have a split. Something like 60/40 or 70/30, either way more than it's ever been. I personally think you'd be insane to draft Foster at 1.02 this season.

Point taken, but he at least should be on this list. The downside is needing to draft Tate. However, (and this has be beat to death on these boards) he's the best insurance policy. Honestly, I'd be happy with a 70/30 split. Houston ran the ball 508 times last year. Assuming 10% goes to QBs, WR, etc., that leaves 457 carries for Tate and Foster. At 70%, foster gets 320 carries. Throw in another 40 catches and he gets somewhere around 350 touches.

I guess he should at least be on this list? It's of the opinion of almost every fantasy football pro in the country that Foster isn't in the discussion for Top 3 this season. Now he's starting to fall out of the top five on most of them. Don't think I'm not a Foster supporter; I've owned him in most of my redrafts and keepers since his 2010 breakout season. This just happens to be the season where I say "Nope sorry". I just see to many upside picks that have better floors with little to no injury concerns. I'd rather have ADP, Charles, Spiller, McCoy, Martin, Richardson over Foster right now. In that same token? I'd rather have Calvin or Graham over him right now. Foster for me this year is one of those guys where I'm willing to draft around him and hope someone else takes him so I don't have to do it.

The injury logic is weird to me. McCoy has never played 16 games in a season. Charles and ADP blew out ACLs (you can call them freak injuries all you want but it still happened). RIchardson played all last season dinged up and Spiller has a history of nagging ailments too (hurt his shoulder just last year after Fred Jackson went down the first time and he went down grabbing his knee in week 2 of the preseason). I just don't understand why Foster's injury risk is hurting him so much relative to the other RBs.

I think it is a case of people trying to be "ahead of the market". I am glad it is the case though, it worked out in my favor at my draft yesterday when Foster fell to me at #9, got Tate too so if Foster goes down my RB production will not miss a beat.

 

[Khy]

Foster, although he's not on your list. I don't understand how he's falling as far as he is in drafts. I don't like to gamble with my first round pick. The Hou O-line has looked as good as ever. He proven and will have rock solid production. Remember, he didn't play in last year's preseason either.

Umm... not true? Last year he went 19 rushes for 89 yards and a TD in the preseason. It was 2011 that he didn't play the preseason and missed 3.5 games. However, in 2011 we knew exactly what was wrong with him... this year we have no actual idea. We know he's having 'back pain' that's kept him out of the entire preseason. That scares me a lot. Not to mention the Texans saying that he's going to be eased back in early with Tate taking a lot of the early carries and Kubiak saying that Tate will have a large role all year. It's looking like for the first season Foster and Tate may have a split. Something like 60/40 or 70/30, either way more than it's ever been. I personally think you'd be insane to draft Foster at 1.02 this season.

Point taken, but he at least should be on this list. The downside is needing to draft Tate. However, (and this has be beat to death on these boards) he's the best insurance policy. Honestly, I'd be happy with a 70/30 split. Houston ran the ball 508 times last year. Assuming 10% goes to QBs, WR, etc., that leaves 457 carries for Tate and Foster. At 70%, foster gets 320 carries. Throw in another 40 catches and he gets somewhere around 350 touches.

I guess he should at least be on this list? It's of the opinion of almost every fantasy football pro in the country that Foster isn't in the discussion for Top 3 this season. Now he's starting to fall out of the top five on most of them. Don't think I'm not a Foster supporter; I've owned him in most of my redrafts and keepers since his 2010 breakout season. This just happens to be the season where I say "Nope sorry". I just see to many upside picks that have better floors with little to no injury concerns. I'd rather have ADP, Charles, Spiller, McCoy, Martin, Richardson over Foster right now. In that same token? I'd rather have Calvin or Graham over him right now. Foster for me this year is one of those guys where I'm willing to draft around him and hope someone else takes him so I don't have to do it.

The injury logic is weird to me. McCoy has never played 16 games in a season. Charles and ADP blew out ACLs (you can call them freak injuries all you want but it still happened). RIchardson played all last season dinged up and Spiller has a history of nagging ailments too (hurt his shoulder just last year after Fred Jackson went down the first time and he went down grabbing his knee in week 2 of the preseason). I just don't understand why Foster's injury risk is hurting him so much relative to the other RBs.

I think it is a case of people trying to be "ahead of the market". I am glad it is the case though, it worked out in my favor at my draft yesterday when Foster fell to me at #9, got Tate too so if Foster goes down my RB production will not miss a beat.

I think it's because right now... Foster is the only one who has a cause for concern with an injury. He didn't take a single off-season snap in practice or preseason because of various random little issues. Which implies something isn't right, even Jene Brammel considered it a concern. As for Charles, he really did have one of the most freak ACL tears ever, he slipped on a down marker flag. It was something that probably anyone would have had the same issue with.

 

[Ghost Rider]

I don't do drafts anymore (I stick with just auctions now), but if I did, I would take Megatron 1st overall. But as to what RBs I would take after AP, my next three would be:

Charles

Martin

Richardson

I would have Foster in there, but while they are saying he is fully healthy, it is a slight concern, and I would hesitate to take him before those three.

Also, Chris Johnson is actually 4th on my RB depth chart, but because his ADP is not as high as guys like AP, Charles, Martin, Richardson, Rice, Foster, Spiller, etc., there would be no need to take him that high.