After watching Portis last night... (1 Viewer)

[Nigel Tufnel]

Same projections as before (since March), nothing's changed...

Clinton Portis - In our view he is the second best RB talent in the NFL behind Ladainian

Tomlinson. Portis is currently going from pick 4-6 in most FF drafts. Considering that we

have him as the #1 player in all of Fantasy Football for 2006 (and have since March), this

represents a sure fire stud pick that could be traded for LT2, LJ, and Zander with

potential upgrades for your club to other positions in the trade process. This qualifies

Portis as a solid first round value pick in our eyes. The addition of OC Al Saunders in

Washington, combined with a very good AVERAGE Defense, an Excellent OVERRATED Offensive Line (one of the

top 3 15 units in the NFL) and a #2 and #3 WR positional upgrade makes the former U of Miami RB a coveted player in 2006 FF drafts...as pertaining to his current value in

ongoing drafts. Portis has dropped 10 lbs and is back to his previous weight when he

played in the one cut system he was so successfull in back in his early days with the

Broncos. Expect to see that trademark burst back again this year. Projecting 1,800

rushing yards and 17 touchdowns via the ground at roughly a 5 ypc clip, combined with

400+ receiving yards and 4 touchdowns via the air.

That D couldn't handle Brad *friggin* Johnson. And S Taylor almost single handedly lost that game for them. If not for Williamson dropping perfect LOOONG passes - WAS should have been 2 TDs down vs. going for a game tying FG @ the end of the game. The O line looked OK, not close to "top 3".I'm a CP owner - and one that drafted him 2x AFTER the injury (but before the TJDuck news), BUT considering the injury, their conference/schedule, and the way the offense looked (Brunell inaccurate often, ?'able play calling, and throwing half his passes behind the LOS), this team won't generate enough scoring opps for him to sniff the top 3. Top 10 - yea, assuming his arm doesn't fall off.

Don't get me wrong. Glad to see him on the field and somewhat productive. Last night was about what I expected (minus the D's play and Brunell struggling to maintain drives)

Buzzkill.

 

[Skinsfansince72]

Yes, he looks healthy to me. I'd project him as being healthy at this point, but with numbers reflecting Duckett's role as a goalline back. 1275/10200/1

You keep saying that Duckett is the gl back and yet there is absolutely NO evidence that he's going to ever be used in that role. In fact, the evidence suggests that Portis will be in the game when they Skins are down close. The only shot Duckett would have to get Gl carries is if Portis was not healthy. Well, we both agree that he looked pretty healthy last night and we saw what we saw(no duckett near the gl).

 

[Skinsfansince72]

Again, my thinking on Duckett is this: the 'Skins won't have traded a high draft pick or picks for Duckett, who will be a FA after this season just to sit him on the bench and watch Portis and his injured shoulder take a beating all year. I think they'll moderate Portis' carries this year (my best guess would be around 275) to keep him fresh, and the majority of the other carries will go to Duckett. Betts will be the 3rd down back.

They traded for Duckett because of Cartwright. If portis goes down for the count, they would not have what they consider to be a qualtiy backup to Betts. What we saw out of Duckett last night is pretty much what you will see most of the year. Duckett backing up Betts. He may get a short yardage carry here and there but that's about it as long as CP is healthy. No way CP comes out for GL carries. In fact, on one of those drives, they took Betts out and put Portis IN when they got down close.

 

[Deuce'sWild]

' date='Sep 12 2006, 03:23 PM' post='5504937']Duckett was brought in because Betts was dinged and on his way out the door.. while Portis, too was dinged. He was more of a future back and insurance plan than anything. My projections for the year in WASHortis - 290 carries - 1250 Yards - 11 TDBetts - 70 carries - 320 Yards - 2 TDDuckett - 45 Carries - 210 Yards - 4 TD

I think you are low on Portis's carries...and TDs

 

[redman]

Again, my thinking on Duckett is this: the 'Skins won't have traded a high draft pick or picks for Duckett, who will be a FA after this season just to sit him on the bench and watch Portis and his injured shoulder take a beating all year. I think they'll moderate Portis' carries this year (my best guess would be around 275) to keep him fresh, and the majority of the other carries will go to Duckett. Betts will be the 3rd down back.

They traded for Duckett because of Cartwright. If portis goes down for the count, they would not have what they consider to be a qualtiy backup to Betts. What we saw out of Duckett last night is pretty much what you will see most of the year. Duckett backing up Betts. He may get a short yardage carry here and there but that's about it as long as CP is healthy. No way CP comes out for GL carries. In fact, on one of those drives, they took Betts out and put Portis IN when they got down close.

Think this through. You've got a guy in Duckett who is a UFA after this season and who has clearly indicated that he thinks he can start somewhere and wants a chance to prove that he's capable. If the Redskins just sit on him as "insurance" without using him, what chance do they have, especially with Portis on their roster, of signing him to an extension during the season or resigning him during the offseason? That as much as any other reason is why I think they're going to give him some carries. That such an aim would also be consistent with reducing Portis' workload only reassures me in that regard.

Yes, he looks healthy to me. I'd project him as being healthy at this point, but with numbers reflecting Duckett's role as a goalline back. 1275/10200/1

You keep saying that Duckett is the gl back and yet there is absolutely NO evidence that he's going to ever be used in that role. In fact, the evidence suggests that Portis will be in the game when they Skins are down close. The only shot Duckett would have to get Gl carries is if Portis was not healthy. Well, we both agree that he looked pretty healthy last night and we saw what we saw(no duckett near the gl).

In addition to what I stated above, the evidence that he'll be used in this way is that he's one of the most successful NFL RB's inside the 5-yard line and the Redskins have struggled in that regard since Gibbs returned.

 

[TeddyKGB]

From Gibbs's presser (loose paraphrase): "Portis came in for treatment today, he's a little sore, but made it through last night without incident. But he is sore."

Portis's involvement kept Duckett from seeing the field. They never took the field in any goal-line packages last night.

Q: Will Portis see a larger role this week against Dallas? A: We'll see as the week goes, how he holds up in practice, how he responds. But we'll monitor him over the week.

 

[pantherclub]

Sore from the shoulder or sore from taking body shots?

 

[TeddyKGB]

Sore from the shoulder or sore from taking body shots?

Shoulder.

 

[redman]

Portis's involvement kept Duckett from seeing the field. They never took the field in any goal-line packages last night.

This is consistent with what I thought I was seeing last night.

Q: Will Portis see a larger role this week against Dallas? A: We'll see as the week goes, how he holds up in practice, how he responds. But we'll monitor him over the week.

Get ready for another week of Portis giving you new percentages.

 

[TeddyKGB]

First questions from his interview on WTEM just now:

(re: shoulder) I'm OK. I'm as sore as you'd expect after not having contact for three weeks, but I'm OK.

(Will you have a bigger role against Dallas/more carries) I don't know, it's up to the coaches. They want to work me in and keep me around for 16 games, so it's up to them.

edit: This will be a regular weekly interview on WTEM with John Thompson the day after every Skins game. CP has taken the slot that Lavar filled the last couple years.

 

[fatness]

edit: This will be a regular weekly interview on WTEM with John Thompson the day after every Skins game. CP has taken the slot that Lavar filled the last couple years.

Thank you god. Portis is about 20 times more fun to listen to than Lavar "I don't know but I'll keep talking" Arrington.

 

[thecardiackid]

Same projections as before (since March), nothing's changed...

Clinton Portis - In our view he is the second best RB talent in the NFL behind Ladainian

Tomlinson. Portis is currently going from pick 4-6 in most FF drafts. Considering that we

have him as the #1 player in all of Fantasy Football for 2006 (and have since March), this

represents a sure fire stud pick that could be traded for LT2, LJ, and Zander with

potential upgrades for your club to other positions in the trade process. This qualifies

Portis as a solid first round value pick in our eyes. The addition of OC Al Saunders in

Washington, combined with a very good AVERAGE Defense, an Excellent OVERRATED Offensive Line (one of the

top 3 15 units in the NFL) and a #2 and #3 WR positional upgrade makes the former U of Miami RB a coveted player in 2006 FF drafts...as pertaining to his current value in

ongoing drafts. Portis has dropped 10 lbs and is back to his previous weight when he

played in the one cut system he was so successfull in back in his early days with the

Broncos. Expect to see that trademark burst back again this year. Projecting 1,800

rushing yards and 17 touchdowns via the ground at roughly a 5 ypc clip, combined with

400+ receiving yards and 4 touchdowns via the air.

That D couldn't handle Brad *friggin* Johnson. And S Taylor almost single handedly lost that game for them. If not for Williamson dropping perfect LOOONG passes - WAS should have been 2 TDs down vs. going for a game tying FG @ the end of the game. The O line looked OK, not close to "top 3".I'm a CP owner - and one that drafted him 2x AFTER the injury (but before the TJDuck news), BUT considering the injury, their conference/schedule, and the way the offense looked (Brunell inaccurate often, ?'able play calling, and throwing half his passes behind the LOS), this team won't generate enough scoring opps for him to sniff the top 3. Top 10 - yea, assuming his arm doesn't fall off.

Don't get me wrong. Glad to see him on the field and somewhat productive. Last night was about what I expected (minus the D's play and Brunell struggling to maintain drives)

Brad Johnson is and always has been one of the most underrated quarterbacks in the NFL. Let's not forget Brad Johnson has a Super Bowl ring to his credit, along with quarterbacking in one of the most prolific offenses in NFL history, back in his first go around in Minnesota. Brad Johnson has always been among the more accurate quarterbacks in the league with his passing. Also I believe Minnesota is an underrated team with quality players at key positions on both sides of the ball. They may not have the marquee name on offense, but that hasn't stopped other teams in the past from doing well. Another big factor working against Washington pass D last night was the loss of CB Shawn Springs. Combined with the offseason loss of CB Walt Harris, losing Springs was a big hit to the D against the Vikings, and in Williamson's ability to get open.

As for the Washington offensive line, they were playing against one of the better defensive lines in the NFL. I would also still expect to see a time to time transition period early on periodically for the O-line, in adjusting to the new offense and play calling.

I can see you feel strongly about the Washington O-line not being a top 3, and downgraded them to only a top 15 O-line. The question I have for you is...who are the other 14 teams NFL offensive lines that are better than Washington's?

Yea, Johnson is a decent qb - doesn't make many mistakes. I was just amazed how many 3rd downs they seemed to convert at least early in the game. And a couple easy catches that were drops by Williamson would have really changed that game IMO.And, OK, the MN D line is solid. But they were going up against the #3 O line right?

Honestly, I just pulled a guestimate out of the air, not really any science behind saying they are #15. The point is (to me) they looked closer to #15 than #3 I guess.

Here's the rush O results from week 1 FWIW:

Rushing Offense - Rushing Yards/Game

Linky

Team G Att Att/G Yds Avg Yds/G TDs FDs 20+

Atlanta 1 47 47.0 252 5.4 252.0 0 14 3

San Diego 1 48 48.0 194 4.0 194.0 2 8 1

New York (N) 1 28 28.0 186 6.6 186.0 1 9 2

New England 1 41 41.0 183 4.5 183.0 0 11 2

Denver 1 25 25.0 161 6.4 161.0 1 9 2

New Orleans 1 40 40.0 150 3.8 150.0 0 4 0

Pittsburgh 1 38 38.0 143 3.8 143.0 0 6 1

Philadelphia 1 30 30.0 130 4.3 130.0 0 7 1

St. Louis 1 28 28.0 125 4.5 125.0 0 6 2

Cincinnati 1 34 34.0 116 3.4 116.0 2 6 1

Kansas City 1 25 25.0 113 4.5 113.0 0 6 0

Chicago 1 36 36.0 109 3.0 109.0 0 4 0

San Francisco 1 18 18.0 107 5.9 107.0 2 6 2

Baltimore 1 34 34.0 103 3.0 103.0 1 5 1

#15 Washington 1 25 25.0 103 4.1 103.0 1 5 1

Green Bay 1 23 23.0 103 4.5 103.0 0 6 0

Buffalo 1 24 24.0 99 4.1 99.0 1 5 0

New York (A) 1 34 34.0 91 2.7 91.0 1 4 0

Seattle 1 26 26.0 91 3.5 91.0 0 5 0

Dallas 1 22 22.0 88 4.0 88.0 1 4 1

Oakland 1 20 20.0 87 4.4 87.0 0 5 0

Tennessee 1 25 25.0 86 3.4 86.0 2 7 0

Minnesota 1 34 34.0 86 2.5 86.0 1 4 0

Cleveland 1 22 22.0 85 3.9 85.0 1 6 0

Arizona 1 29 29.0 84 2.9 84.0 1 5 0

Jacksonville 1 32 32.0 78 2.4 78.0 2 6 0

Houston 1 20 20.0 70 3.5 70.0 0 7 0

Carolina 1 16 16.0 65 4.1 65.0 0 4 0

Indianapolis 1 23 23.0 55 2.4 55.0 1 4 0

Miami 1 18 18.0 38 2.1 38.0 2 3 0

Detroit 1 17 17.0 38 2.2 38.0 0 4 0

Tampa Bay 1 13 13.0 26 2.0 26.0 0 3 0

They did manage a 4.1 ypc average (decent) for a tie for 11th overall.

I'm not down on CP, just not realistically expecting him to push the top 3 #s, considering he's going to be worked back into game shape and won't likely see 20+ totes a game till week 4/5. Believe me, I'll be extremely happy to be wrong since 2 of my leagues are depending on him to a large extent. I just didn't like the way the offense in WAS looked overall yesterday.

 

[[icon]]

' date='Sep 12 2006, 03:23 PM' post='5504937']Duckett was brought in because Betts was dinged and on his way out the door.. while Portis, too was dinged. He was more of a future back and insurance plan than anything. My projections for the year in WASHortis - 290 carries - 1250 Yards - 11 TDBetts - 70 carries - 320 Yards - 2 TDDuckett - 45 Carries - 210 Yards - 4 TD

I think you are low on Portis's carries...and TDs

1) he has averaged 8TDs a season during his two years in Washington... with his high (last year) being 11....which is what I've projected him as meeting. 2) He's posted extremely high numbers of carries over the last two years. This typically does not bode well (someone has posted the typical 3rd year stats after a RB has posted consecutive 350 carry seasons... it's usually not pretty). With Betts running well and the addition of Duckett, I can see Washington backing off on Portis' workload a bit over the first couple games (example last night where he saw 10 touches). Assuming he sees 10-15 touches again next week then on to a full workload (albeit slightly less than his 04 and 05 levels) over the next 14 games... I think 290ish carries is a pretty reasonable assumption. What has changed so much about this situation that causes you to suspect he'll exceed his TD high-water mark in this offense? I'm not insisting I am right.. I've got my reasons for believing I am. I'm interested in hearing your projections and reasoning behind them. Thanks Oh... and I'm a portis owner in my $250 16 team league... so I'm hoping YOUR projections are right

 

[redman]

' date='Sep 12 2006, 06:51 PM' post='5506796']

' date='Sep 12 2006, 03:23 PM' post='5504937']Duckett was brought in because Betts was dinged and on his way out the door.. while Portis, too was dinged. He was more of a future back and insurance plan than anything. My projections for the year in WASHortis - 290 carries - 1250 Yards - 11 TDBetts - 70 carries - 320 Yards - 2 TDDuckett - 45 Carries - 210 Yards - 4 TD

I think you are low on Portis's carries...and TDs

1) he has averaged 8TDs a season during his two years in Washington... with his high (last year) being 11....which is what I've projected him as meeting. 2) He's posted extremely high numbers of carries over the last two years. This typically does not bode well (someone has posted the typical 3rd year stats after a RB has posted consecutive 350 carry seasons... it's usually not pretty). With Betts running well and the addition of Duckett, I can see Washington backing off on Portis' workload a bit over the first couple games (example last night where he saw 10 touches). Assuming he sees 10-15 touches again next week then on to a full workload (albeit slightly less than his 04 and 05 levels) over the next 14 games... I think 290ish carries is a pretty reasonable assumption. What has changed so much about this situation that causes you to suspect he'll exceed his TD high-water mark in this offense? I'm not insisting I am right.. I've got my reasons for believing I am. I'm interested in hearing your projections and reasoning behind them. Thanks Oh... and I'm a portis owner in my $250 16 team league... so I'm hoping YOUR projections are right

I don't dispute point 2 at all. In fact, I'm thinking/hoping that the number of rushes is more like 275. If they do that his ypc average may exceed 4.5. As for the first point, you have the extremely poor 2004 offense that is an outlier there. That was Gibbs' first year back and his WR's were the 1st round bust Rod Gardner and a hobbled Laveraneus Coles. They didn't "discover" Cooley until about the last six weeks of the season, and Gibbs was of course getting his feet wet in offensive play design and play calling for the first time in 12 years. To make matters worse, they stuck with Brunell despite a hamstring problem suffered early that completely obliterated any power he had on his throws, which of course enabled teams to key in on Portis. In short, that year makes a very poor anchor or guide of any kind. I too like the 11 number with Duckett there, but for me that assumes that Duckett scores 5-6 short-yardage rushing TD's in his own right that would otherwise go to Portis. If you're arguing that Portis exceeds the 11 that he had last year, note that he didn't score a single TD until week 7. That's not a typo, week 7. He scored his 11 TD's in 11 games, which is far more consistent with the first two years of his career in Denver. That, plus the fact that even after last night's up and down offensive performance by the team you already see a viable alternative to Moss in the receiving game in Randle El would seem to imply that Portis should have better running lanes this year.

 

[HoTnickZ]

Coach Joe Gibbs explained RB T.J. Duckett's lack of action in Week 1.

"T.J. was scheduled to take ALL the goal-line stuff, but we didn't get into a situation where we used that package and we also had Ladell [betts] and Clinton [Portis] in there," Gibbs said. "I was hoping to get him some carries, but we never got around to it." Duckett may still have a chance to vulture touchdowns, but he likely won't see many touches overall.

Source: Washington Times

 

[Biabreakable]

Portis is #2, behind Tomlinsonduh