Fantasy football, like much of life, is filled with conventional thinkers. Most owners follow the advice of "experts" who often irrationally underrate and overrate individual players. Once a player's general projection or net worth is established by these "experts," almost all owners play along, and assume the're right. Often, however, they are not.
One way I've found to be ahead of the curve in my fantasy leagues is to target the small number of white RBs and WRs who are significant parts of their team's offense. They are invariably undervalued by the "experts," and thus by most fantasy owners. Last year, I won one league with a wicked white recieving trident of Jordy Nelson, Wes Welker and Gronk. The year before, I won with Hillis and Woodhead. This year, I'm rolling with Decker and a hopefully healthy Austin Collie.
There are a handful of players who are chronically undervalued by everyone; guys like Willis McGahee and Dwayne Bowe, for instance. Philip Rivers also gets no respect. Jordy Nelson is being undervalued, because the "experts" can't believe he'll repeat his breakout performance last year. I think he can. The same goes for Gronk, who so many people seem to expect will underwhelm this year, while his fellow elite TE Jimmy Graham is not being looked at that way. I think Gronk will be incredible again.
Meanwhile, owners will continue to waste far too high a draft pick on Andre Johnson, who never scores TDs and is now injury prone, and Michael Vick, who returned to his mediocre career level of play last season after a fluky 2010. I was wrong about Cam Newton last year, but I'd still be leery of drafting him at his ADP. His passing yardage diminished greatly during the last half of the season, and do you really want to rely on 14 rushing TDs? While Julio Jones could take the next step and become the #1 WR this year, too many people seem to be expecting that, with too few concrete reasons for doing so. Roddy White is the safter play in Atlanta, I think. I don't think Fitzgerald can perform up to this ADP, either, with the present mess that is Arizona's offense. I like Ryan Williams' potential, but I'd stay away from all Arizona players.
I think the Bengals' skill position players could take a hit this season, including A.J. Green. They have no one else there to throw to, and I'm not sure how much further Dalton will progress. I also don't like their running game- the Law Firm will not be running through the same holes he found in New England, and Scott is a perpetual nothing. I would stay away from all Saints' players as well, except for Brees and Graham. Even there, I'd expect a slight dropoff for Brees, and a bigger one for Graham, because teams will be focusing on him now. Sproles is being drafted way too high. Shark thinking understands his 2011 season for the aberration it was.
I like Andrew Luck a lot, and would reach for him a bit in Dynasty leageus because I think there's a good chance he's the next top level QB for years to come. I also like Jake Locker and, to a lesser extent, Christian Ponder. Great potential there. I think Josh Freeman might bounce back nicely, but he has been about as unpredictable as they come thus far. RGIII will have to be as good as Cam to live up the wildly overhyped expectations, and I don't like any of the Redins' skill position players. I don't think Wilson is a viable NFL starter.
Going against the grain has worked well for me over the years. At drafts, I normally get the players I want, because the other owners are usually focusing on players I don't want.
One way I've found to be ahead of the curve in my fantasy leagues is to target the small number of white RBs and WRs who are significant parts of their team's offense. They are invariably undervalued by the "experts," and thus by most fantasy owners. Last year, I won one league with a wicked white recieving trident of Jordy Nelson, Wes Welker and Gronk. The year before, I won with Hillis and Woodhead. This year, I'm rolling with Decker and a hopefully healthy Austin Collie.
There are a handful of players who are chronically undervalued by everyone; guys like Willis McGahee and Dwayne Bowe, for instance. Philip Rivers also gets no respect. Jordy Nelson is being undervalued, because the "experts" can't believe he'll repeat his breakout performance last year. I think he can. The same goes for Gronk, who so many people seem to expect will underwhelm this year, while his fellow elite TE Jimmy Graham is not being looked at that way. I think Gronk will be incredible again.
Meanwhile, owners will continue to waste far too high a draft pick on Andre Johnson, who never scores TDs and is now injury prone, and Michael Vick, who returned to his mediocre career level of play last season after a fluky 2010. I was wrong about Cam Newton last year, but I'd still be leery of drafting him at his ADP. His passing yardage diminished greatly during the last half of the season, and do you really want to rely on 14 rushing TDs? While Julio Jones could take the next step and become the #1 WR this year, too many people seem to be expecting that, with too few concrete reasons for doing so. Roddy White is the safter play in Atlanta, I think. I don't think Fitzgerald can perform up to this ADP, either, with the present mess that is Arizona's offense. I like Ryan Williams' potential, but I'd stay away from all Arizona players.
I think the Bengals' skill position players could take a hit this season, including A.J. Green. They have no one else there to throw to, and I'm not sure how much further Dalton will progress. I also don't like their running game- the Law Firm will not be running through the same holes he found in New England, and Scott is a perpetual nothing. I would stay away from all Saints' players as well, except for Brees and Graham. Even there, I'd expect a slight dropoff for Brees, and a bigger one for Graham, because teams will be focusing on him now. Sproles is being drafted way too high. Shark thinking understands his 2011 season for the aberration it was.
I like Andrew Luck a lot, and would reach for him a bit in Dynasty leageus because I think there's a good chance he's the next top level QB for years to come. I also like Jake Locker and, to a lesser extent, Christian Ponder. Great potential there. I think Josh Freeman might bounce back nicely, but he has been about as unpredictable as they come thus far. RGIII will have to be as good as Cam to live up the wildly overhyped expectations, and I don't like any of the Redins' skill position players. I don't think Wilson is a viable NFL starter.
Going against the grain has worked well for me over the years. At drafts, I normally get the players I want, because the other owners are usually focusing on players I don't want.
