Alexei Ramirez or Jason Bartlett (1 Viewer)

[E-Z Glider]

Ramirez was pretty disappointing last year. His upside seems higher, but he was worthless in the bottom of the lineup last season. Bartlett on the other hand flashed some nice speed and could put up some nice steals/runs if he can hold down a top of the order spot.



ETA - 5x5 with OBP instead of AVG

 

[pantagrapher]

I'm facing the same ####ty dilemma. Bartlett is the safer pick, and right now that's where I'm leaning. But his steal efficiency really fell off a cliff in the second half last year. I think Bartlett is going to go for .290/85 R/11 HR/20 SB or thereabouts this year. The big question is: will Alexei do any better? I don't see any reason to think he will. But like you said, he has a higher upside. Look at his numbers though—is he really the 20/15 threat we thought he was going to be going into last year? If Beckham keeps progressing and Alexei starts cold, do we end up seeing Alexei in a committee with Getz and Lillibridge & Nix? I don't think Ozzie would hesitate to do it, especially if Alexei has troubles in the field again. Bartlett, on the other hand, seems to be in a more stable situation.

 

[E-Z Glider]

I've been leaning towards Alexei for no other reason than he seems to be a "buy-low" guy while Bartlett seems more of a "sell-high" guy. Your reasoning makes sense though. Ive still got the rest of the week to try to trade one or both.

 

[pantagrapher]

I've been leaning towards Alexei for no other reason than he seems to be a "buy-low" guy while Bartlett seems more of a "sell-high" guy. Your reasoning makes sense though. Ive still got the rest of the week to try to trade one or both.

It's a tough call, and I'm glad I don't have to make it for another couple weeks. I'm a big Alexei fan and I want him to do well, but I've been trying to be rational about this decision. I'd like to see what some of those who are high on Alexei think.

 

[pantagrapher]

All things being equal, 72% of you are choosing Alexei over Bartlett? I find that surprising. Can someone explain?

 

[E-Z Glider]

All things being equal, 72% of you are choosing Alexei over Bartlett? I find that surprising. Can someone explain?

I think its the "hype" factor. Alexei was at least considered a "sleeper" before last season while Bartlett is a guy who is showing up on everyones "bust" list because people are expecting a regression. Alexei is the sexier pick and will probably go first in most drafts whether he should or not.So far I have tried trading either player straight up for Ian Stewart or Nick Swisher and both have shot me down. So much for position scarcity.

 

[E-Z Glider]

Link

A Look at Jason Bartlett’s Projections

by R.J. Anderson - December 3, 2009 - Share this Article

The 2010 season is going to be an interesting one for Jason Bartlett. He’s coming off a season in which he posted a .389 wOBA despite a previous career high of .335 – that coming in a half-season. Bartlett also hit more home runs (14) in 567 plate appearances than he had in the 1,700 prior (11). It’s no surprise that his ISO nearly doubled from the previous high and that his walk rate increased (as did his strikeout rate).

Part of the success derived from a high average on balls in play. Previous research has shown that BABIP is pretty good at predicting itself – more so than line drive rate and nearly double Dave Studeman’s LD% + .120 trick of the olden days. Bartlett is 30 years old now and while it’s not unheard of, he’s beyond the age where you start thinking about guys hitting their prime. Oh, and you know how hitting more groundballs can be productive for a hitter’s BABIP? Yeah, well Bartlett hit a career low amount of balls on the ground last year. And people wonder why I’m not completely sold on Bartlett the Conqueror?

So, imagine my interest upon seeing the most beautiful sight on our player pages nowadays – the blue highlighted row consisting of the Fan Projections. With a brisk click I was a bit surprised at what I saw: Rays fans are projecting Bartlett to have a .345 wOBA and the other fans are projecting a .349 wOBA. That would rank as Bartlett’s second best offensive season, but still, it’s .040 points lower than last year. More telling is that the BABIP projections are right around what you would expect from Bartlett. To surmise the forecasts to date: “Yes, Bartlett will retain some of his new found offensive prowess; no, he won’t be second best hitting shortstop in the American League again anytime soon.”

Obviously I have no idea to what extent people are doing calculations when filling these things out, but if you run a quick 5-4-3 weighting of Bartlett’s previous three seasons and don’t adjust or regress, you get .346. Add in the 2 for an average American League shortstop and you get .342. Pretty close to the projections thus far either way; although I’m sure that will change now that I’ve pointed it out.

 

[pantagrapher]

“Yes, Bartlett will retain some of his new found offensive prowess; no, he won’t be second best hitting shortstop in the American League again anytime soon.”

This is exactly how I feel about Bartlett. My projections have him regressing in every category compared to last year, and it seems like there's widespread agreement that he won't repeat last year's numbers. And that's why Bartlett is the unsexy pick here.