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All over-rated team (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Chachi
- Start date
LarryAllen'sJockstrap
Footballguy
Based on the current overall staff rankings, I would go with:
QB - Donovan McNabb (#7) - I know he has been injured, but he has ranked 12, 11 & 20 the last three seasons; plus, no new WRs.
RB - Frank Gore (#6) - I'll never get past the fact the guy has two reconstructed knees and shoulders, plus the SF O might be the worst in the league.
RB - MJD (#13) - I like him as an NFL player; I think there is too much risk to rank a guy as the 13th best RB who barely gets 200 touches a season. If the TDs dip, you're in trouble.
WR - Steve Smith (#6) - If we knew Delhomme would be okay; I might be fine with this, but he's coming off Tommy John surgery. Smith had one #1 finish and one #8 finish (both w/healthy Delhomme), so we're not talking Holt/Harrison consistency.
WR - Calvin Johnson (#21) - He was okay last year. The thing that scares me a little is he had 95 targets and only 48 catches (51%). Better value out there for a #2 WR.
WR - Chris Chambers (#26) - The excuse for his low catch percentage in Miami was always the QB. In San Diego, he bumped it all the way up to 55%; not going to get a lot of love catching one out of every two thrown your way.
TE - Antonio Gates (#1) - Not because he isn't great, but because I could get TEs 2-11 at a much lower price and still get good production out of the position.
K - Neil Rackers (#7) - He's still living off his outlier season of 2005.
D - Baltimore (#6) - This was tough; Baltimore is getting older on the defense.
Note: Before you rip it, all of mychoices are pure speculation and based little on actual reality.
QB - Donovan McNabb (#7) - I know he has been injured, but he has ranked 12, 11 & 20 the last three seasons; plus, no new WRs.
RB - Frank Gore (#6) - I'll never get past the fact the guy has two reconstructed knees and shoulders, plus the SF O might be the worst in the league.
RB - MJD (#13) - I like him as an NFL player; I think there is too much risk to rank a guy as the 13th best RB who barely gets 200 touches a season. If the TDs dip, you're in trouble.
WR - Steve Smith (#6) - If we knew Delhomme would be okay; I might be fine with this, but he's coming off Tommy John surgery. Smith had one #1 finish and one #8 finish (both w/healthy Delhomme), so we're not talking Holt/Harrison consistency.
WR - Calvin Johnson (#21) - He was okay last year. The thing that scares me a little is he had 95 targets and only 48 catches (51%). Better value out there for a #2 WR.
WR - Chris Chambers (#26) - The excuse for his low catch percentage in Miami was always the QB. In San Diego, he bumped it all the way up to 55%; not going to get a lot of love catching one out of every two thrown your way.
TE - Antonio Gates (#1) - Not because he isn't great, but because I could get TEs 2-11 at a much lower price and still get good production out of the position.
K - Neil Rackers (#7) - He's still living off his outlier season of 2005.
D - Baltimore (#6) - This was tough; Baltimore is getting older on the defense.
Note: Before you rip it, all of mychoices are pure speculation and based little on actual reality.
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Blackjacks
Footballguy
Bulger- injuries, plus talent around him puts him way out of the top 10 in my opinion
J. Jones- Shabby oline, no wr's and some competition @ rb
FWP- Will lose his job by midseason
WR- G. Jennings- Favre>Rodgers
WR- Housh- let's see if he can handle being the guy (please don't sit out Chad)
TE- V. Davis- I have him but he doesn't deserve a top 5-7 rating yet....does have skills though.
J. Jones- Shabby oline, no wr's and some competition @ rb
FWP- Will lose his job by midseason
WR- G. Jennings- Favre>Rodgers
WR- Housh- let's see if he can handle being the guy (please don't sit out Chad)
TE- V. Davis- I have him but he doesn't deserve a top 5-7 rating yet....does have skills though.
TheWick
Footballguy
QB - Derek Anderson - Tough division with tough Weather during the later weeks of the season. Brady breathing down his back.
RB - Frank Gore - Terrible offense and Martz won't do much to help him out.
RB - Jamal Lewis - can he do it again? I don't wanna take him that soon and find out.
WR - Brandon Marshall - he's okay but ahead of way to many safer WRs.
WR - Donald Driver - Rodgers and Injuries scare me
TE - Todd Heap - injuries PERIOD
RB - Frank Gore - Terrible offense and Martz won't do much to help him out.
RB - Jamal Lewis - can he do it again? I don't wanna take him that soon and find out.
WR - Brandon Marshall - he's okay but ahead of way to many safer WRs.
WR - Donald Driver - Rodgers and Injuries scare me
TE - Todd Heap - injuries PERIOD
jeter23
Footballguy
I am not a fan of Gore myself, but with Martz in town, I do not think SF will be the worst offense in the league. Chicago has a good grasp on that title right now.
LarryAllen'sJockstrap
Footballguy
Totally forgot about Martz. Hope for the 49ers sake, one of the QBs on the roster makes some serious strides.
I can't call a rookie over-rated as I haven't even seen him play in the NFL yet.
QB Vince Young - He was the 18th ranked QB in standard scoring and threw 17 INT's and didn't even break double digit TD's.
RB Marshawn Lynch - I know everyone else would get on their knees for this guy, but he doesn't impress me at all. Only went over 100 yards 3 times last season. Not one multi-TD game...and yet people are taking him like he is the next Walter Payton.
RB Willie Parker - No doubt about it the guy can pile up yards. Solid last three seasons going over 1000 yards rushing, but he doesn't find the endzone. If you take out his 2006 fluke season he only has 6 TD's since 2005. Not very impressive if you ask me, and think Steelers see this issue as they made strong draft choice.
WR Chad Johnson - Just way too many issues with his attitude to where he might not even play this season. he is that stubborn. And there are only 2-3 strong games in his mix last year that put him up that high. Not saying Chad is bad WR, just that there are many other's that should be taken where he is currently ranked.
WR Calvin Johnson - Neither of these DET WR's impress me. Calvin looks very slow on the field when he runs his routes. If it isn't a fly route, he just looks terrible. Almost as though it takes him so long to get his speed up. Smell bust coming, not to mention Millen selected him...so bust is almost evident.
TE Todd Heap - This guy is getting to be worse then Fred Taylor back in the late 90's and early 2K.
K You take them with your last pick, so any kicker selected before then is overrated selection. It is a kicker for shat sakes people. Their rankings are like the stock market's annual review.
DEF Bears - Just not what they used to be, and the NFC north is getting stonger and stronger offenses. Yes they do have strong special teams, but many teams are just giving them the ball at the 40 as their offense is so pathetic, they still can't score.
QB Vince Young - He was the 18th ranked QB in standard scoring and threw 17 INT's and didn't even break double digit TD's.
RB Marshawn Lynch - I know everyone else would get on their knees for this guy, but he doesn't impress me at all. Only went over 100 yards 3 times last season. Not one multi-TD game...and yet people are taking him like he is the next Walter Payton.
RB Willie Parker - No doubt about it the guy can pile up yards. Solid last three seasons going over 1000 yards rushing, but he doesn't find the endzone. If you take out his 2006 fluke season he only has 6 TD's since 2005. Not very impressive if you ask me, and think Steelers see this issue as they made strong draft choice.
WR Chad Johnson - Just way too many issues with his attitude to where he might not even play this season. he is that stubborn. And there are only 2-3 strong games in his mix last year that put him up that high. Not saying Chad is bad WR, just that there are many other's that should be taken where he is currently ranked.
WR Calvin Johnson - Neither of these DET WR's impress me. Calvin looks very slow on the field when he runs his routes. If it isn't a fly route, he just looks terrible. Almost as though it takes him so long to get his speed up. Smell bust coming, not to mention Millen selected him...so bust is almost evident.
TE Todd Heap - This guy is getting to be worse then Fred Taylor back in the late 90's and early 2K.
K You take them with your last pick, so any kicker selected before then is overrated selection. It is a kicker for shat sakes people. Their rankings are like the stock market's annual review.
DEF Bears - Just not what they used to be, and the NFC north is getting stonger and stronger offenses. Yes they do have strong special teams, but many teams are just giving them the ball at the 40 as their offense is so pathetic, they still can't score.
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jurb26
Footballguy
QB - Rivers, like him as a NFL QB just not a fantasy QB.
RB - Graham, just don't think he has the talent to sustain the numbers he put up last year.
RB - Grant, see above.
WR - Welker, had a great year last year but will come back to earth this year.
WR - Galloway, age has to catch up eventually, right?
TE - Heap, glad I'm not the only one who is tired of the injury game with this guy. recently traded him away in my dynasty league.
RB - Graham, just don't think he has the talent to sustain the numbers he put up last year.
RB - Grant, see above.
WR - Welker, had a great year last year but will come back to earth this year.
WR - Galloway, age has to catch up eventually, right?
TE - Heap, glad I'm not the only one who is tired of the injury game with this guy. recently traded him away in my dynasty league.
QB: Matt Hasselbeck, who is he throwing to this year? He shattered his career high in pass attempts last year when Seattle all but gave up trying to run the ball. Frankly he's not even the top QB on my board named Matt.
RB: Jamal Lewis, yes he had a nice year last year, but now he's 29, is getting paid, and could be facing a QB change. Plus, the Browns now have a very difficult schedule. I could easily see him not being a top-20 RB.
RB: Brandon Jacobs, I just can't see using a 2nd or 3rd round pick on a guy who is often injured, doesn't catch passes and is in a RBBC with possibly 2 other guys.
WR: T.J. Houshmandzadeh, this guy fell apart down the stretch last year and his 112 catches were very much a product of Carson and Chad not being on the same page and Palmer not having anyone else to throw to. The Bengals went out and took 2 WR's in the first 3 rounds and signed a pass catching TE. Housh is ranked 8th by the staff but I have him more in the 15-20 range.
WR: Plaxico Burress, deserves a lot of credit for playing through his injury last season, however he is starting to pick up nagging injuries as a hobby. He doesn't catch many balls and has only topped 1,100 yards twice in his career. His playoff performance was impressive but, its caused his value to inflate. I'd be very upset if Plax was my WR1 or if i spent a pick in the top-4 rounds to get him.
TE: Jeremy Shockey, too injury-prone and he's under productive even when he's healthy. His mouth remains the most impressive thing about him. Personally, I wouldn't trust him as my TE1 and he'll certainly be drafted as one.
For the fun of it I'll also do an all underrated team:
QB: Ben Roethlisberger, its almost criminal that he's the 6th ranked QB. I have him 3rd and I believe he's closer to the top-2 guys than a guy like Carson Palmer is to Ben. Last year was only the beginning, he's improving, Holmes and Miller are improving and Sweed adds a nother weapon.
RB: Earnest Graham, someone needs to explain to me the difference between Graham and Ryan Grant(at least in a redraft.) Barring an incredible recovery by Caddy, Graham should be an elite RB. On a per start basis, he was just about as productive as Clinton Portis last year. I for one don't think Dunn will be anything more than a COP back as everything he does Graham does better.
RB: Laurence Maroney, I just think the playoffs were a greater example of what will happen this season than most think. Teams will basically put 6 in the box and dare the Patriots to run all season because of what happened last year. The logic being" we can't stop them from passing in our base defense let's force them to run and hopefully we can contain that and maybe force a mistake as well as run clock and keep the game close." I would take Maroney over Lewis in a heartbeat, hell I'd probably take him among the top-10 RB's.
WR: Reggie Wayne, I'd take him tops among WR's and it is an easy decision in my eyes. I think he is likely to get in the end zone even more this season and his yardage is unlikely to change much. He has no downside at all.
WR: Torry Holt, Steve Smith, Andre Johnson, Marques Colston and Housh. The one thing they have in common is I would take Torry Holt over any of them in a redraft. Holt went for 1,200-7 despite being the only weapon on a below average team for half the season and all the while nursing a knee injury that(according to Holt) is 100% better. 1,300-10 seems like a reasonable expectation on about 100 catches.
TE: Tony Scheffler, how is he 12th? Is he going to be worse this year? the guy put up 500-5 in 12 games despite a major ankle injury and a QB that was at far less than 100%. Cutler loves Scheffler and Tony is likely to get 60-70 catches this year IMO with a full offseason to prepare and Marshall possibly being iffy. I really don't see much of a difference between Scheffler and a guy like Chris Cooley other than Cooley has a better track record. I'd argue Scheffler has more upside.
RB: Jamal Lewis, yes he had a nice year last year, but now he's 29, is getting paid, and could be facing a QB change. Plus, the Browns now have a very difficult schedule. I could easily see him not being a top-20 RB.
RB: Brandon Jacobs, I just can't see using a 2nd or 3rd round pick on a guy who is often injured, doesn't catch passes and is in a RBBC with possibly 2 other guys.
WR: T.J. Houshmandzadeh, this guy fell apart down the stretch last year and his 112 catches were very much a product of Carson and Chad not being on the same page and Palmer not having anyone else to throw to. The Bengals went out and took 2 WR's in the first 3 rounds and signed a pass catching TE. Housh is ranked 8th by the staff but I have him more in the 15-20 range.
WR: Plaxico Burress, deserves a lot of credit for playing through his injury last season, however he is starting to pick up nagging injuries as a hobby. He doesn't catch many balls and has only topped 1,100 yards twice in his career. His playoff performance was impressive but, its caused his value to inflate. I'd be very upset if Plax was my WR1 or if i spent a pick in the top-4 rounds to get him.
TE: Jeremy Shockey, too injury-prone and he's under productive even when he's healthy. His mouth remains the most impressive thing about him. Personally, I wouldn't trust him as my TE1 and he'll certainly be drafted as one.
For the fun of it I'll also do an all underrated team:
QB: Ben Roethlisberger, its almost criminal that he's the 6th ranked QB. I have him 3rd and I believe he's closer to the top-2 guys than a guy like Carson Palmer is to Ben. Last year was only the beginning, he's improving, Holmes and Miller are improving and Sweed adds a nother weapon.
RB: Earnest Graham, someone needs to explain to me the difference between Graham and Ryan Grant(at least in a redraft.) Barring an incredible recovery by Caddy, Graham should be an elite RB. On a per start basis, he was just about as productive as Clinton Portis last year. I for one don't think Dunn will be anything more than a COP back as everything he does Graham does better.
RB: Laurence Maroney, I just think the playoffs were a greater example of what will happen this season than most think. Teams will basically put 6 in the box and dare the Patriots to run all season because of what happened last year. The logic being" we can't stop them from passing in our base defense let's force them to run and hopefully we can contain that and maybe force a mistake as well as run clock and keep the game close." I would take Maroney over Lewis in a heartbeat, hell I'd probably take him among the top-10 RB's.
WR: Reggie Wayne, I'd take him tops among WR's and it is an easy decision in my eyes. I think he is likely to get in the end zone even more this season and his yardage is unlikely to change much. He has no downside at all.
WR: Torry Holt, Steve Smith, Andre Johnson, Marques Colston and Housh. The one thing they have in common is I would take Torry Holt over any of them in a redraft. Holt went for 1,200-7 despite being the only weapon on a below average team for half the season and all the while nursing a knee injury that(according to Holt) is 100% better. 1,300-10 seems like a reasonable expectation on about 100 catches.
TE: Tony Scheffler, how is he 12th? Is he going to be worse this year? the guy put up 500-5 in 12 games despite a major ankle injury and a QB that was at far less than 100%. Cutler loves Scheffler and Tony is likely to get 60-70 catches this year IMO with a full offseason to prepare and Marshall possibly being iffy. I really don't see much of a difference between Scheffler and a guy like Chris Cooley other than Cooley has a better track record. I'd argue Scheffler has more upside.
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sho nuff
Footballguy
I agree somewhat with Jennings being on the overrated list...and I admit, I have not paid attention to where Driver is currently going...but I would think he would be a value pick this year after his down year in TDs.And Crosby (not your list but above).A rookie K who led the league in scoring is overrated now?TheWick said:
chook
Footballguy
Jeez, you don't ask for much do you?
Almas_4th_Child
Footballguy
Do you only follow one team? hahaI actually drafted Driver as a good value in one draft....even tho I am expecting 73 1020 4........is that underrating him? Let me guess...yes.
My all-overrated team:QB - Vince Young - who is he throwing to? What has he accomplished as a QB other than throwing 2x as many picks as TDs? He has thrown for LESS than 100 yards (6 games) more times than he's thrown for OVER 250 (twice). He's thrown multiple picks (9 games) or zero TDs (15 games) more often than multiple TDs (6 games) . In fact, thus far in his career, he has been just as likely to post a 0 TD game as he has been to post a game where he threw a TD. LAUGHABLE.QB: Matt Hasselbeck, who is he throwing to this year? I dunno, who did he throw to last year? Deion Branch? Nate Burleson? Bobby Engram? Yet somehow he managed 4000 yards and 28 TDs. He shattered his career high in pass attempts last year when Seattle all but gave up trying to run the ball. Frankly he's not even the top QB on my board named Matt. So a guy who has never produced anywhere in the NFL is ahead of a 3-time Pro Bowler who has a near 2:1 ratio for TD:int, and has thrown for 22+ TDs each of the last 5 seasons aside from the one season he was injured? Okay. Cool!Oh yeah, by the way, Hasselbeck threw 2x as many TD passes last season and 700 more yards as Schaub has thrown in his career, but with less picks
RB: Jamal Lewis, yes he had a nice year last year, but now he's 29, is getting paid, and could be facing a QB change. Plus, the Browns now have a very difficult schedule. I could easily see him not being a top-20 RB. although you bring up several good points, I'll provide the counterpoint. 1) Great offensive line 2) Won't face 8 in the box with Braylon and Junior as offensive threats 3) He DID get 2000 yards in a season and he still is capable of big games (witness 200+ yards last season vs. Cinci early and 174 yards late vs. Buff)
RB: Brandon Jacobs, I just can't see using a 2nd or 3rd round pick on a guy who is often injured, doesn't catch passes and is in a RBBC with possibly 2 other guys. yup. He's a TD hog though, so I can see picking him up in the 4th or late 3rd
WR: T.J. Houshmandzadeh, this guy fell apart down the stretch last year and his 112 catches were very much a product of Carson and Chad not being on the same page and Palmer not having anyone else to throw to. The Bengals went out and took 2 WR's in the first 3 rounds and signed a pass catching TE. Housh is ranked 8th by the staff but I have him more in the 15-20 range. I have him about 4-5 places lower than the staff. Remember though, he has more TDs and more receptions than Ocho in each of the last 2 seasons. It wasn't a 1-season thing. Ocho gets doubled, Housh gets the targets. Not that Housh is better, but he has the better situation. If Ocho leaves, then Housh struggles
WR: Plaxico Burress, deserves a lot of credit for playing through his injury last season, however he is starting to pick up nagging injuries as a hobby. He doesn't catch many balls and has only topped 1,100 yards twice in his career. His playoff performance was impressive but, its caused his value to inflate. I'd be very upset if Plax was my WR1 or if i spent a pick in the top-4 rounds to get him. ]agreed
TE: Jeremy Shockey, too injury-prone and he's under productive even when he's healthy. His mouth remains the most impressive thing about him. Personally, I wouldn't trust him as my TE1 and he'll certainly be drafted as one. agreed entirely
For the fun of it I'll also do an all underrated team:
QB: Ben Roethlisberger, its almost criminal that he's the 6th ranked QB. I have him 3rd and I believe he's closer to the top-2 guys than a guy like Carson Palmer is to Ben. Last year was only the beginning, he's improving, Holmes and Miller are improving and Sweed adds a nother weapon. Ben isn't up to Brady or Peyton yet, and I have issues comparing him to Romo (He has TO and Witten) or Brees (2 consecutive seasons of 4400 yards passing and ave 27 TD passes). I do, however, like him in 5th, and I have him ahead of both Palmer and DA.
RB: Earnest Graham, someone needs to explain to me the difference between Graham and Ryan Grant(at least in a redraft.) Barring an incredible recovery by Caddy, Graham should be an elite RB. On a per start basis, he was just about as productive as Clinton Portis last year. I for one don't think Dunn will be anything more than a COP back as everything he does Graham does better. I like Graham this year, but the problem with him is that he is pretty old and has never produced ANYTHING. People see him as a 1-season wonder.
RB: Laurence Maroney, I just think the playoffs were a greater example of what will happen this season than most think. Teams will basically put 6 in the box and dare the Patriots to run all season because of what happened last year. The logic being" we can't stop them from passing in our base defense let's force them to run and hopefully we can contain that and maybe force a mistake as well as run clock and keep the game close." I would take Maroney over Lewis in a heartbeat, hell I'd probably take him among the top-10 RB's. Maroney has talent and ability, but there's a lot of question marks surrounding how Belichick will use him. If NE functioned like a normal team and didn't try to run up scores, I'd say that Maroney could be a solid late-RB1. However, who knows what Bili Beli will do this season? He might ahve a grudge and try to average 60/game
WR: Reggie Wayne, I'd take him tops among WR's and it is an easy decision in my eyes. I think he is likely to get in the end zone even more this season and his yardage is unlikely to change much. He has no downside at all. most people have him #2 in NFL fantasy. Tough to be underrated when you're 2nd place to the best WR in the last 40 years not named Jerry
WR: Torry Holt, Steve Smith, Andre Johnson, Marques Colston and Housh. The one thing they have in common is I would take Torry Holt over any of them in a redraft. Holt went for 1,200-7 despite being the only weapon on a below average team for half the season and all the while nursing a knee injury that(according to Holt) is 100% better. 1,300-10 seems like a reasonable expectation on about 100 catches. Holt hasn't produced like that in 3 years. He is almost a decade older than most of them and just lost the guy who helps keep teams from doubling him. He also has a QB who is recovering from injury and is on a team that will revolve around the RB. Holt has been REMARKABLY consistent during his time in the NFL aside from 2 extreme seasons (2000 and 2003). However, the last 2 seasons, he's also been remarkably consistent, and produced 93/1188 and 93/1189.
Colston topped that in only his 2nd NFL season, and Brees is echelons better than Bulger. As for Andre Johnson, assuming no injuries, Andre Johnson has already topped 100 catches and is a 6'4 red zone sicko who was 2nd to Randy Moss in PPG last season for WRs. Remember, he has your favorite Matt at QB!
Smith is a guy that I could see getting outscored by Holt. As long as Palmer has Ocho, then Housh has the targets since he won't see any double teams.
TE: Tony Scheffler, how is he 12th? Is he going to be worse this year? the guy put up 500-5 in 12 games despite a major ankle injury and a QB that was at far less than 100%. Cutler loves Scheffler and Tony is likely to get 60-70 catches this year IMO with a full offseason to prepare and Marshall possibly being iffy. I really don't see much of a difference between Scheffler and a guy like Chris Cooley other than Cooley has a better track record. I'd argue Scheffler has more upside. I'd agree. I like Scheffler quite a bit, just after Cooley, in fact.
RB - LJ yeah, you heard me. His offensive line went from being the best in the last 20 years to one of the worst. I'm sorry, but reaching for a guard in the early 1st doesn't make your horrid offensive line suddenly blossom. His QB is also a joke. Honestly, Brodie Croyle? The guy threw for 2500 yards and 14 TDs in his best NCAA season. Are we REALLY thinking that he is a threat? LJ is a stud, but his situation is one of the worst in the NFL
WR - Javon Walker - 1 good seaon with Brett Favre, 1 decent season with Jay Cutler/Jake Plummer, and 4 worthless seasons. He's missed 57 games and played in 39. Oh yeah, he plays for the Raiders. HHAHAHAHAHA...yeah. Go ahead, draft him.
WR - Roy Williams - 1 good season. Never broke 65 catches or 850 yards in any of the other 3 seasons. Has yet to break 8 TDs in his 4-year career. 1 full season, 3 partial seasons. He may not even be the best WR on his own team and the team has gotten AWAY from their passing-dominated attack and moved on to a more run-oriented attack
WR - Lee Evans - same as with Williams, except that aside from his one solid 3rd year breakout season, he hasn't broken 55 catches. At least Roy almost got 65. Evans doesn't even have injuries to fall back on. He's been healthy, he's just been ####ty. He's also half a foot shorter and has Trent Edwards throwing to him.
TE - Dallas Clark - He's been Indy's starter for several years now, yet prior to this season has never had 40 catches, 500 yards or > 5 TDs. This past season, Peyton panicked when the primary target his entire career went down with injuries. Now that Peyton has discovered Anthony Gonzales, watch Clark's flukey numbers drop back down where they belong
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massraider
Footballguy
Vince Young
Jamal Lewis
Ryan Torain--this isn't true yet, but let him rip off a 12 yard run in August.....
Maurice Jones-Drew
Ray Rice
Calvin Johnson--It is almost impossible for this guy to live up to the hype.
Wes Welker
Hines Ward
Vernon Davis--4.38!!!!!!!
IDP:
Barrett Ruud
Aaron Rouse
Sabby Piscitelli
Jamal Lewis
Ryan Torain--this isn't true yet, but let him rip off a 12 yard run in August.....
Maurice Jones-Drew
Ray Rice
Calvin Johnson--It is almost impossible for this guy to live up to the hype.
Wes Welker
Hines Ward
Vernon Davis--4.38!!!!!!!
IDP:
Barrett Ruud
Aaron Rouse
Sabby Piscitelli
chook
Footballguy
Really? Why?
sho nuff
Footballguy
I mostly follow the Packers but also listen and read quite a bit about the Titans.I am a Packers fan...and live in Nashville.I think those numbers could be about right. I might expect somewhere in the rounds of 6 TDs or so though. But 1000 yards and about 70 grabs is a near lock for him.He is as safe a pick as a #3 WR as any with solid upside to be a strong #2 fantasy WR.
Tanner9919
Footballguy
Great post!! Derrick Anderson needs to get that glass slipper back, its nearly midnight.I'll add:FWP, Todd Heap, Shockey, Moss ( will go way to high in most drafts, and will not get anywhere near the amount of TDs he had last season, plus, during the final few weeks of the season, opposing teams seemed to figure him out, and rolled their defenses towards him. thats likely to continue in 2008), Javon Walker, Drew Bennett, Isaac Bruce, any NE RB, Edge, Michael Turner.LarryAllen said:
BoltBacker
Footballguy
Are you talking about redraft?
Chachi
Footballguy
Dude, thatnks for starting my day off right, I read this and couldn't stop laughing, why did it strike me as so funny?
brednbuddah
Footballguy
08 redraft
QB: Tom Brady - look past last year's monster season (50 TDs/4806yds/68.9cmp%) and you've got a good, not great fantasy QB. The guy averages about 25 TDs and 12 picks, a solid 2:1 ratio. He only eclipsed the 4000 yard mark one other time (05) and has never thrown for over 30 TDs before 08. Manning has thrown for over 4000 yards 8 times and threw over 30 TDs 4 times. Favre? 4000 yards 5 times, 30+ TDs 8 times. He'll go waaaay too high in 08 redrafts.
RB: Thomas Jones - I changed my mind with Jones. guy never had double digit TDs in his career and just recently started breaking the 1000 yds mark (last 3 years), which is really no big deal. He only broke 1250 once. not the kind of production you expect out of your RB1, which is where the majority will take him with the Jets "revamped" line hype.
WR: Chad Johnson - gets the yardage and the rec (has avg 92.4 since 03), but can you justify your ADP by breaking 10 TDs already? Marvin Harrison has had 12+ TDs 5 times. All of the production and none of the mouth.
QB: Tom Brady - look past last year's monster season (50 TDs/4806yds/68.9cmp%) and you've got a good, not great fantasy QB. The guy averages about 25 TDs and 12 picks, a solid 2:1 ratio. He only eclipsed the 4000 yard mark one other time (05) and has never thrown for over 30 TDs before 08. Manning has thrown for over 4000 yards 8 times and threw over 30 TDs 4 times. Favre? 4000 yards 5 times, 30+ TDs 8 times. He'll go waaaay too high in 08 redrafts.
RB: Thomas Jones - I changed my mind with Jones. guy never had double digit TDs in his career and just recently started breaking the 1000 yds mark (last 3 years), which is really no big deal. He only broke 1250 once. not the kind of production you expect out of your RB1, which is where the majority will take him with the Jets "revamped" line hype.
WR: Chad Johnson - gets the yardage and the rec (has avg 92.4 since 03), but can you justify your ADP by breaking 10 TDs already? Marvin Harrison has had 12+ TDs 5 times. All of the production and none of the mouth.
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massraider
Footballguy
Laugh it up now, we're gonna be sick of this name in two months.Dude, thatnks for starting my day off right, I read this and couldn't stop laughing, why did it strike me as so funny?
PatsFanCT
Footballguy
Seriously? He has two rookie RB's on this list, one being a 5th rounder, but it's Ruud that makes you stop and wonder?
JKL
Footballguy
Overall, good analysis. But I have Schaub ahead of Hasselbeck as well for 2008. If there is one thing we do know from fantasy football, its that 33 year old QB's continue to perform the same as they always have, and QB's moving into their 2nd year as a starter never improve dramatically.You could have made the same general statements about Hasselbeck vs. Schaub's career stats back in 2003, except substituting Bledsoe (age 31), Trent Green (age 33), or Garcia (age 33)--all guys who finished top 10 in 2002, for 2008 Hasselbeck, and a 28 year old Hasselbeck who posted a career best QB20 finish in 2002, for 2008 Schaub.My all-overrated team:QB - Vince Young - who is he throwing to? What has he accomplished as a QB other than throwing 2x as many picks as TDs? He has thrown for LESS than 100 yards (6 games) more times than he's thrown for OVER 250 (twice). He's thrown multiple picks (9 games) or zero TDs (15 games) more often than multiple TDs (6 games) . In fact, thus far in his career, he has been just as likely to post a 0 TD game as he has been to post a game where he threw a TD. LAUGHABLE.QB: Matt Hasselbeck, who is he throwing to this year? I dunno, who did he throw to last year? Deion Branch? Nate Burleson? Bobby Engram? Yet somehow he managed 4000 yards and 28 TDs. He shattered his career high in pass attempts last year when Seattle all but gave up trying to run the ball. Frankly he's not even the top QB on my board named Matt. So a guy who has never produced anywhere in the NFL is ahead of a 3-time Pro Bowler who has a near 2:1 ratio for TD:int, and has thrown for 22+ TDs each of the last 5 seasons aside from the one season he was injured? Okay. Cool!Oh yeah, by the way, Hasselbeck threw 2x as many TD passes last season and 700 more yards as Schaub has thrown in his career, but with less picks
. . .
RB - LJ yeah, you heard me. His offensive line went from being the best in the last 20 years to one of the worst. I'm sorry, but reaching for a guard in the early 1st doesn't make your horrid offensive line suddenly blossom. His QB is also a joke. Honestly, Brodie Croyle? The guy threw for 2500 yards and 14 TDs in his best NCAA season. Are we REALLY thinking that he is a threat? LJ is a stud, but his situation is one of the worst in the NFL
WR - Javon Walker - 1 good seaon with Brett Favre, 1 decent season with Jay Cutler/Jake Plummer, and 4 worthless seasons. He's missed 57 games and played in 39. Oh yeah, he plays for the Raiders. HHAHAHAHAHA...yeah. Go ahead, draft him.
WR - Roy Williams - 1 good season. Never broke 65 catches or 850 yards in any of the other 3 seasons. Has yet to break 8 TDs in his 4-year career. 1 full season, 3 partial seasons. He may not even be the best WR on his own team and the team has gotten AWAY from their passing-dominated attack and moved on to a more run-oriented attack
WR - Lee Evans - same as with Williams, except that aside from his one solid 3rd year breakout season, he hasn't broken 55 catches. At least Roy almost got 65. Evans doesn't even have injuries to fall back on. He's been healthy, he's just been ####ty. He's also half a foot shorter and has Trent Edwards throwing to him.
TE - Dallas Clark - He's been Indy's starter for several years now, yet prior to this season has never had 40 catches, 500 yards or > 5 TDs. This past season, Peyton panicked when the primary target his entire career went down with injuries. Now that Peyton has discovered Anthony Gonzales, watch Clark's flukey numbers drop back down where they belong
It's not just a stab in the dark on Schaub either, his underlying stats suggest a breakout if he is healthier this season (and if he and AJ are on the field together). His comp % and ypa were very good, his td numbers were mediocre with a small sample size, but I'm not inclined to write him off as someone who can't throw TD's. I'm more inclined to think those two facts (he missed games in year 1 as a starter, so people think him incapable of playing a full year til they see it, and low td with excellent stats otherwise) are buying you value. Schaub's historic stat comps are several top QB's who had injury-missed games in the middle of their careers at the same age, guys like Montana, Aikman. Schaub is entering QB prime years at age 27, Hasselbeck is leaving it at age 33. Here are Hasselbeck's fantasy finishes from age 27 (first full year as starter) to age 32 (last year): QB20, QB3, QB13, QB4, QB21, QB7. Avg Finish= QB11. He's currently QB8 by FBG expert ADP. He's been pretty inconsistent from year to year. Why would I expect him to be better at age 33 than his average performance from age 27-32? Situation is arguably worse than it was 2003-2005 from an overall offense standpoint, his favorite receiver is older than he is, etc.
Turning to the overall topic:
QB: I've discussed Hass vs. Schaub, but I'll go with Kitna, who isn't in my top 24 as draftable. He's been a mediocre QB stat compiler who will now be 36 years old on an offense "reportedly" moving away from the passing game under Martz, and who is imminently replaceable (and should be replaced) at this point in his career.
RB: I'll join you with LJ. you hit many key points, I'll just add 29 years old, coming off broken foot.
WR: I'm a Chiefs fan, so this pains me. But Bowe as WR14 currently? I like him, but not that high.
Reaper
Footballguy
EVERY ranking I can find as well as the leagues in the mock forum have Jones going in the RB22-25 range.So, unless you're in a 25 Team league, you lost me.
bicycle_seat_sniffer
Smells like chicken
cuz it's trueDude, thatnks for starting my day off right, I read this and couldn't stop laughing, why did it strike me as so funny?
brednbuddah
Footballguy
mock rankings, shmock rankings. they don't apply to the overzealous and there are plenty out there.EVERY ranking I can find as well as the leagues in the mock forum have Jones going in the RB22-25 range.
So, unless you're in a 25 Team league, you lost me.
Jason Wood
Zoo York
I pretty much agree with the majority of these choices...well done.
Hue G
Footballguy
No to mention he gets hurt every other game, I've got him in a keeper league and I'm going to try to shop him.
I edited for the proof readers out there. I'm sure rest of site knew what I was referring too. Not one multi-TD game.
Well for one he is having some foot issues again according to some reports, although it's a bit strange that the Denver media hasn't mentioned anything yet.
Riffraff
Footballguy
brednbuddah
Footballguy
I think Laurence Maroney shares the same boat.
Jedimaster21
Footballguy
This is extremely interesting to me, as I would say that MJD is one of the most underrated players out there. He has produced top 15 numbers two years in a row with limited opportunity, and has a 32 year old running back as his companion in a RBBC. He is due to blow up sooner rather than later...Maroney seems like more of a long term RBBC guy in New England, but he could also seize the opportunity this season.
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Jeff Pasquino
Footballguy
I don't disagree with most on this list, except for some guys that are being discredited due to injuries.
McNabb is a point per game monster, so saying how he ended the year overall is meaningless - unless you don't get to change your starting QB on a weekly basis.
For normal leagues, he will give you 1-2 TDs and 250 yards at a minimum every week with at most 1 INT on average. I'll take that.
Plus when he started to get healthier he closed the season well with 1,000+ yards, 6 TDs to 1 INT and over 100 yards rushing in his final four games. Despite injuries and recovering from surgery, he had just two games with under 14 fantasy points in FBG scoring, and one of them he left due to injury while the other he played with a makeshift OL that was a turnstile.
Derek Anderson has a ton of weapons as well, but that debate has been covered.
I ask those who have DA or McNabb outside of the Top 9 - who do you put in?
As for Heap and Shockey - both have injury histories, yes. So did Randy Moss before he lit it back up. Talent is talent and if you run scared all the time, you will miss out. I love to check on guys' health and see if they aren't overtaxed for this year and can stay healthy. Fred Taylor was mentioned - perfect example. He was the workhorse and he broke down too often. Add in MJD and his workload decreases - but he stays healthy and productive all year. I'll take that trade every time.
Shockey may not get overtaxed as Boss can take some plays / series. Heap is the only real TE on the roster (Wilcox cannot be a starter) but now Baltimore may go 3-wide and have better QB options. I'd gamble on either as a TE1.
Lastly Thomas Jones - don't sleep on the Jets adding Tony Richardson as a lead blocker.
McNabb is a point per game monster, so saying how he ended the year overall is meaningless - unless you don't get to change your starting QB on a weekly basis.
For normal leagues, he will give you 1-2 TDs and 250 yards at a minimum every week with at most 1 INT on average. I'll take that.
Plus when he started to get healthier he closed the season well with 1,000+ yards, 6 TDs to 1 INT and over 100 yards rushing in his final four games. Despite injuries and recovering from surgery, he had just two games with under 14 fantasy points in FBG scoring, and one of them he left due to injury while the other he played with a makeshift OL that was a turnstile.
Derek Anderson has a ton of weapons as well, but that debate has been covered.
I ask those who have DA or McNabb outside of the Top 9 - who do you put in?
As for Heap and Shockey - both have injury histories, yes. So did Randy Moss before he lit it back up. Talent is talent and if you run scared all the time, you will miss out. I love to check on guys' health and see if they aren't overtaxed for this year and can stay healthy. Fred Taylor was mentioned - perfect example. He was the workhorse and he broke down too often. Add in MJD and his workload decreases - but he stays healthy and productive all year. I'll take that trade every time.
Shockey may not get overtaxed as Boss can take some plays / series. Heap is the only real TE on the roster (Wilcox cannot be a starter) but now Baltimore may go 3-wide and have better QB options. I'd gamble on either as a TE1.
Lastly Thomas Jones - don't sleep on the Jets adding Tony Richardson as a lead blocker.
so 2 guys who have broken 100 receptions in a season and another guy who hasn't been UNDER 1274 yards or 87 catches since 2002, as well as the guy who holds the NFL record for TDs in a season?wow, tough crowd!
why should I be forced to supply multiple QBs if I draft a starter?
not every week you won't. He's missed a season's worth of games over the last 4 seasons, and he has only broken 20 TDs once since 2001.
Moss missed 7 games over a 3 year span and hasn't missed a game in his 7 other seasons. in 6 NFL seasons, Shockey has yet to play a full season and has missed 14 games. He's never broken 900 yards and has yet to match his rookie reception or yardage totals. He's also scored 27 TDs in 6 seasons.Heap has played 4 seasons and 3 "1/2" seasons. Guys like McNabb, Heap, Shockey, Brandon Jacobs, etc...they obviously have talent, but is it worth taking that type of risk for someone who, realistically, is only marginally better than SOME of their far steadier competition?
see, now we talkin. Agreed thoroughly.
Donnybrook
Footballguy
08 Dynasty (non PPR)
Steven Jackson - ADP is 2 or 3 yet he has only hit the top 10 once it the last 4 years. I really see the Rams as a team that is on the decline and this years draft did not help them.
Steven Jackson - ADP is 2 or 3 yet he has only hit the top 10 once it the last 4 years. I really see the Rams as a team that is on the decline and this years draft did not help them.
Jeff Pasquino
Footballguy
I think you're mising the point here - it isn't about their ability, but their rating. If you believe that these guys will finish below where their rating is, then they are overrated. All of these guys are talented, but do they deserve to be rated where they are? That's the question (and the basis for saying that they are overrated). If you don't believe that Brady will be the #1 QB again this year and by a good margin, then he's overrated.so 2 guys who have broken 100 receptions in a season and another guy who hasn't been UNDER 1274 yards or 87 catches since 2002, as well as the guy who holds the NFL record for TDs in a season?wow, tough crowd!
Hmm, so you plan on drafting 1 QB and that's it? OK.If that is your plan, then you're going to "overpay" for a QB and take a QB that will have comparable PPG as McNabb. Now, if you assume that McNabb will miss time - a decent assumption - then you'll be forced to use a 2nd option at some point.The reality is that 64 different QBs started at least 1 game last year, so it isn't safe to assume that ANY QB will start 16 games. Only 12 QBs did last year, and Favre retired. Peyton, Romo and Brees had 20+ PPG last year, but if you want them you have to take them this year you have to spend a 2nd-4th round pick. McNabb will give you 19-20 points when he starts on average (13 healthy starts and 258 points last year, discounting the game where he left early) and - most importantly - he can be had in the 6th or 7th round. That's a value, not an overrated player.
Annual averages don't mean much when discussing a player playing less than a full season.Again, all these averages are based on 2007. Looking at when he was healthier after surgery - he wasn't 100% the first half of last year - and you'll see a better performer.
Jeff Pasquino
Footballguy
Points per game these guys are pretty valuable, but if you will assume that they again will miss time, then I can see your point.I draft more on a PPG basis, as I know that I can plug in someone else when a guy gets hurt. That's more valuable to me, as long as they play a certain amount of games. I'll agree Heap is more risky than Shockey, but both are pretty valuable to me.
Ketamine Dreams
Footballguy
Overrated:
QB: Vince Young, Phillip Rivers
RB: Michael Turner, Brandon Jacobs
WR: Roy Williams, Lee Evans, Roddy White
TE: Dallas Clark, Ben Watson
QB: Vince Young, Phillip Rivers
RB: Michael Turner, Brandon Jacobs
WR: Roy Williams, Lee Evans, Roddy White
TE: Dallas Clark, Ben Watson
bcr8f
Footballguy
Driver had a shoulder injury and foot last year. I think he'll bounce back. I overrate anyone on the Chiefs.
Ketamine Dreams
Footballguy
I would add any Chargers' wide receivers to the list.
bulger2holt
Footballguy
Actually, just the opposite. The Rams are an up and coming team. Their o-line is healthy and revamped. The Rams O will revolve around sjax. Holt will benefit from this too.
Craig_MiamiFL
Footballguy
McNabb is the most overrated fantasy QB of the last decade.
GB if you think when he goes down again with injury that you can just 'plug in' a QB to compete with the Manning/Brady/Romos of the world.
GB if you think when he goes down again with injury that you can just 'plug in' a QB to compete with the Manning/Brady/Romos of the world.
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