All-Request IDP Roundtable on the Audible (2 Viewers)

[Jene Bramel]

Link to show.

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We're planning to record a pre-camp, all-request show early this week. We may not be able to get through everyone's questions, but we'll do our best and clean up those we miss after the show.Because the show length is limited and we'd like to keep the content helpful for as many as possible, we'd prefer general and open-ended questions over advice requests. Team-specific questions are welcome, but may make the show only if they are kept as general as possible.

Thanks as always for listening and contributing. Have at it!

 

[tones]

Two questions on a couple of DB backfields I've been watching. KC where Berry appears to be playing more FS and the SS appears to be Page but he looks to be heading out of town. So whom is it and what is the value of that player - DB3?

The other situation DB situation is the Detroit SS player & value?

Curious about your call on the WLB in Detroit and Tennessee and the value to be had there.

Thanks!!!!!

 

[mambomambo]

CBs and S:

Wondering about sleeper 6th and 7th rounders, UDFAs and 2nd yr players that could become a good fantasy contributor in 2010 and beyond?

 

[jsharlan]

Linebacker situations in Carolina, Tennessee, and the likelihood of Keith Bulluck catching on with a team.

Rookie Safety situations, ie some surprise starters.

Rookie sleeper pass rushers.

 

[elpasotexan]

LB situations in MIA (ie misi, wake, etc), CAR, and WAS (with scheme change). Also, with the increase in 3-4 Ds starting to chew up DEs in sack heavy leagues, sleepers at DE in sack heavy leagues. Thanks.

 

[Brehh]

Wondering if you could rank these players in a dynasty big play lg. Who is the guy to keep and who should i try to shop around.

Angerer, Pat IND

Carpenter, Bobby STL

Hawk, A.J. GBP

Maybin, Aaron BUF

Misi, Koa MIA

Scott, Bart NYJ

Black, Quincy

Brinkley, Jasper

Siler,Brandon

Much appreciation

 

[notpacmanjones!]

Do you see DeAndre Levy as a top 15 LB this season? What kind of upside could Micheal Boley have for the Giants? Also what are your opinions on Patrick Chung in NE? Thanks.

 

[PranksterJD]

Also, with the increase in 3-4 Ds starting to chew up DEs in sack heavy leagues, sleepers at DE in sack heavy leagues. Thanks.

Same question, balanced scoring.Looking forward to wearing out my iPod with this one. Great to hear the IDP crew starting back up! Awesome job guys.

 

[DbqSitz40]

I was wondering if you could provide some insight on the following position battles around the league:

DL

1. Charles Johnson vs. Everette Brown (CAR)

2. Mathias Kiwanuka vs. Osi Umenyiora (NYG)

LB

1. Derrick Johnson vs. Demorrio Williams/Corey Mays (KC)

2. Jonathan Goff vs. Phillip Dillard (NYG)

DB

1. Who starts at both safety positions in Buffalo?

2. Who starts at both safety positions in Chicago?

Thanks and I look forward to listening to the show. You guys do a superb job! Keep up the great work!

 

[CataclysmicThunder]

Do you see Sean Lee as an eventual 3-down LB and potential IDP star in Dallas when he ascends to the starting lineup as early as next year? What are your opinions on Lee? Is he a guy to reach for in a rookie draft and stash based on his potential? Thank you guys for doing such a phenomenal job on this website.

 

[CataclysmicThunder]

Who are your deep sleeper rookie LB's and why?

 

[CataclysmicThunder]

Lastly, does the undersized Daryl Washington possess the requisite skill set to blossom into a reliable LB1 as a 3-down ILB in Arizona's defense?

 

[UTLonghorn31]

Can you compare/contrast the 3-4 scheme difference between SDC and MIA and the value affect it may have on each of the 4 LB positions?

Which 2 ILBs do you see getting the time in SDC between Cooper, Siler, Burnett?

Who do you see as current NFL backups that may emerge from these various roles to become 2nd half starters? (i.e., players you may stash with deep rosters)

4-3 MLB

4-3 WLB

3-4 ILB

Who do you see starting at SS to open the season for CIN?

 

[stevec2]

Linebacker situations in Carolina, Tennessee, and the likelihood of Keith Bulluck catching on with a team.Rookie Safety situations, ie some surprise starters.Rookie sleeper pass rushers.

These are situations that I would like to hear about too. Also, KC linebacker situation.

 

[Jestefarean]

Some more competition questions I'd love to hear your thoughts on:

Buff SS - Whitner vs Ellison

Houston DE - Smith vs Barwin

Phi DE rotations - Parker vs Graham vs Tapp

Atl DE rotation - Bierman, vs Anderson, vs Sidbury

Oakland DE - Wimbley vs Shaughnessy vs Richardson

 

[CB31]

Top 5 rookie CBs?

 

[PhantomJB]

The 2010 Coaching and Philosophy Changes by Jason Wood was a good read. Could you please expand upon this further and take your best shot(s) at predicting which changes will have the biggest FF implications? And possibly even which players?

Last year we saw the aggressive styles of Rex Ryan and Gregg Williams have huge impact on IDP players from both the JEts and Saints, while Bill Sheridan taking over at DC for Giants helped turn that into a near FF wasteland.

Maybe create three general buckets and focusing only on the biggest movers vs. being exhaustive and covering every team.

Big positive (maybe Fewell in NY?, Nolan in Miami?)

Neutral (Morris taking over for Bates probably isn't a huge deal or is it?)

Step backwards (CHI and Marinelli? He sure wasn't very good at play-calling for the Lions)

Thanks!

 

[JaxBill]

Since the Jags failed to address safety in the offseason, how much patience will they show with Reggie Nelson at safety this year?

With the drafting of Pierre-Paul, how will the Giants rotate their DEs?

If Andre Carter totally flops as a 3-4 OLB in camp, could you see him going to another team?

 

[DawnBTVS]

There have been rumblings of the new 3-4 in Buffalo taking on a look that's most linked with Nick Saban's scheme(s) at LSU and Alabama in the past and current. I've read that Saban likes to use Cover 1 and Cover 3 but how would his scheme effect the value of certain players (assuming this 3-4 is reflecting of his defensive style)?

 

[Bracie Smathers]

We're planning to record a pre-camp, all-request show early this week. We may not be able to get through everyone's questions, but we'll do our best and clean up those we miss after the show.Because the show length is limited and we'd like to keep the content helpful for as many as possible, we'd prefer general and open-ended questions over advice requests. Team-specific questions are welcome, but may make the show only if they are kept as general as possible.Thanks as always for listening and contributing. Have at it!

Dynasty perspective of short and long term rankings of rookie IDPs with a consentration on the cream of D-Line and LB because those are the primary thrust of interest since top DBs tend to rotate each year but DL and primarily top LBs tend to remain near the top once they reach elite status so unearthing a stud DL or LB can reap a long term dividend and landing an elite DL is harder to decipher than spying an elite LB prospect.So of the top rookie LBs who do you think will reach elite status. I think McClain has the best shot to reach elite status because he plays the middle of a 4-3 in Oakland and if Morris got top five/ten LB points for years in that system then I think McClain has an excellent shot to provide elite LB points. Also I like the DL in front covering him and freeing him up from blockers. But he's the only elite LB prospect that I see from this group. Do you see any others from this rookie class who honestly have a VERY GOOD shot to reach elite LB status?And then of the D-Linemen its much more difficult to spot elite D-Line prospects. Morgan is the guy many are taking in dynasty leagues and that is a good roll of the dice but who else of this class has a respectable shot to become an elite D-Line point generator? I like Jerry Hughes of the Colts but he's got Freeny and Mathis in front of him so he is a looooooong range prospect and someone who I feel will be available on the wire later in the year and that is when I'll try to land him. But what about the kid from Philly? What do you think about his short and long term potential to become an elite D-line prospect? I know the system will change with the death of the Philly DC and no one really knows yet how that system will change but in the past it took a few years for any rookie D-Lineman to get up to speed in that system because it was/is? complicated. But how do you judge their first round D-line prospect's long term range to become an elite D-Line point generator?Also any other DL or LB rookies who you feel have a STRONG shot to become elite, meaning top five or higher than top ten at their respective posittions?Thanks

 

[GECKO]

Great questions here. I have a long drive home Friday, will the IDP roundtable be available by then?

One question

E.J. Henderson, will he return to studliness this year after his injury? Not much news on his rehab this non-playing season.

Thanks

Gecko

 

[pidgeonmanza]

Can you guys talk about the browns secondary, specifically tj ward and larry asante for redraft and dynasty?

 

[BrainDeadGenius]

Is Kampman being overrated in leagues this year?

(I'm high on him too, but it seems everyone likes him as a DL1.) Are expectations too high?

 

[RushHour]

I really want to know if you would sell Tyvon Branch in a keeper league while his value is high. Will Mitchell hurt his production this year?

 

[CataclysmicThunder]

I really want to know if you would sell Tyvon Branch in a keeper league while his value is high. Will Mitchell hurt his production this year?

 

[southeastjerome]

I would love to hear you guys give us some sleeper picks of players who may be among the league leaders in sacks. We all know the Jared Allens and Demarcus Ware's but anyone else flying under the radar that could put up big sack totals?

 

[southeastjerome]

What are your thoughts on Aaron Kampman? He was a stud as a 4-3 DE for years. He moved to the 3-4 and was still on pace for 9 sacks. Now that he's back to a 4-3 D, are we to expect similar #'s to his golden days?

 

[Jene Bramel]

Thanks for all the great questions and contributions. We recorded the show last night and Cecil should have it ready soon. We couldn't get to every question, but we'll try to be back in the thread to clean up those we didn't have time for in the coming days.

 

[southeastjerome]

Thanks for all the great questions and contributions. We recorded the show last night and Cecil should have it ready soon. We couldn't get to every question, but we'll try to be back in the thread to clean up those we didn't have time for in the coming days.

Balls.Looking forward to listening on my ipod this weekend. Makes yard work much more enjoyable.

 

[Jene Bramel]

Thanks for all the great questions and contributions. We recorded the show last night and Cecil should have it ready soon. We couldn't get to every question, but we'll try to be back in the thread to clean up those we didn't have time for in the coming days.

Balls.

There is a lot of discussion on DE competitions around the league and some sleeper talk in the show. I'm planning to run through the thread before the end of the weekend to answer questions we've missed.RE: Kampman >>> His upside is dependent on how quickly he recovers from the knee injury. His game isn't built on pure speed and change of direction as much as technique, motor and leverage, so the injury is not as big a concern to me as it might be for a guy like Robert Mathis. I've got him ranked as a DL1 on the strength of his 40-8 or better upside. I don't know if we'll see 50-12 ever again, but I think the shelf life of a technically sound all-around defensive end continues through the early 30s. Unless there's a compensatory injury issue or he doesn't trust his recovery, I'm fine drafting Kampman in the 8-14 range this year.

 

[ggiants81]

Some insights in the Bulluck situation would be great. Is he fully recovered ? Will he sign with anyone.. Detroit ? Or

are there other options.

 

[Cecil Lammey]

http://podcast.footballguys.com/2010/Footb...2010-Vol86a.mp3

great work guys!

enjoy!

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[southeastjerome]

Thanks for all the great questions and contributions. We recorded the show last night and Cecil should have it ready soon. We couldn't get to every question, but we'll try to be back in the thread to clean up those we didn't have time for in the coming days.

Balls.

There is a lot of discussion on DE competitions around the league and some sleeper talk in the show. I'm planning to run through the thread before the end of the weekend to answer questions we've missed.RE: Kampman >>> His upside is dependent on how quickly he recovers from the knee injury. His game isn't built on pure speed and change of direction as much as technique, motor and leverage, so the injury is not as big a concern to me as it might be for a guy like Robert Mathis. I've got him ranked as a DL1 on the strength of his 40-8 or better upside. I don't know if we'll see 50-12 ever again, but I think the shelf life of a technically sound all-around defensive end continues through the early 30s. Unless there's a compensatory injury issue or he doesn't trust his recovery, I'm fine drafting Kampman in the 8-14 range this year.

Thanks Jene, I look forward to listening!

 

[Jene Bramel]

Two questions on a couple of DB backfields I've been watching. KC where Berry appears to be playing more FS and the SS appears to be Page but he looks to be heading out of town. So whom is it and what is the value of that player - DB3?

After some digging last week, I'm more convinced than ever that Berry will end up at SS. Rodney Harrison gave an interview that strongly suggested that Berry will be used in a similar fashion to how Harrison was used in NE under Romeo Crennel. If Lewis wins the other safety job, there may be a little more roving/robber deep safety in Berry's usage than Harrison, but I still think Berry would be the one to own. Lewis should have value, too, given the relatively weakness at ILB and the expected tackle opportunity for the Chiefs.As soon as I see any confirmation of alignments, it'll be posted somewhere in the Forum.

Curious about your call on the WLB in Detroit and the value to be had there.

It looks like Follett. He'll have opportunity on his side but I think Dizon will play in the nickel packages with Levy, leaving Follett with LB4 matchup upside at best.

 

[Jene Bramel]

CBs and S: Wondering about sleeper 6th and 7th rounders, UDFAs and 2nd yr players that could become a good fantasy contributor in 2010 and beyond?

Rookie Safety situations, ie some surprise starters.

Top 5 rookie CBs?

Not much has changed with the rookies in the secondary over the past month or so. We've been highlighting Morgan Burnett and Darrell Stuckey for months, but some might consider it surprising that they're getting a long look to start in camp. Neither has been making it to the last two rounds of rookie drafts in my leagues recently, but might in leagues with owners who draft according to the rounds where players are drafted. I still like Larry Asante to potentially surprise soon and Kendrick Lewis is working his way up the depth chart, too.Top five rookie corners are still Wilson, Jackson, Haden, Spievey and Murphy in dynasty leagues. Jackson is the only player I'd trust in a redraft league today.The list of second year DBs with upside begins and ends with Patrick Chung if you can consider him a sleeper. William Moore and Michael Mitchell remain high on my watch list if they win larger roles in camp.

Can you guys talk about the browns secondary, specifically tj ward and larry asante for redraft and dynasty?

I've never been a fan of Abram Elam and the favor he's had with Eric Mangini may be wearing off if this draft is any indication. I still think Ward fits better at FS and thus will have limited upside, while Asante is more likely to be a SS long term. Neither are worth large investments right now, but I'd let someone else roster Ward and monitor Asante's development closely.

 

[Jene Bramel]

Rookie sleeper pass rushers.

Also, with the increase in 3-4 Ds starting to chew up DEs in sack heavy leagues, sleepers at DE in sack heavy leagues.

Same question, balanced scoring.

I would love to hear you guys give us some sleeper picks of players who may be among the league leaders in sacks. We all know the Jared Allens and Demarcus Ware's but anyone else flying under the radar that could put up big sack totals?

Rookie pass rushing sleepers would include for the short term would include Jerry Hughes and Jermaine Cunningham. Both could surprise as situational players in a Mark Anderson like mold. O'Brien Schofield, Jason Worilds and Corey Wootton deserve attention as a sleeper in 2011 and beyond.Seems like we've highlighted some of these names so much that they may not be considered sleepers in FBG dominated leagues, but the pressure metrics I wrote about in the most recent Reading the Defense fingered the usual suspects (Biermann, Shaughnessy, Hayes, Long, Wake). I also think Chris Clemons, Jason Hunter and Kyle Moore could surprise a bit.

 

[Jene Bramel]

What's the likelihood of Keith Bulluck catching on with a team.

I think the likelihood is reasonably high, but I doubt he'll end up in an impact role unless he convinces the Lions to play him every down.

 

[Jene Bramel]

LB situations in MIA (ie misi, wake, etc), and WAS (with scheme change).

I think the Dolphins will start Misi at LOLB, Crowder at LILB (despite the current reporting), Dansby at RILB and then platoon Charlie Anderson (base) and Cameron Wake (nickel). There's a potential that Dobbins could steal some base snaps from Crowder and Wake could win an every-down job, but neither looks likely today.The Redskins lineup is probably set with Carter/Fletcher/McInthosh/Orakpo. I don't think Carter is going anywhere and I think McIntosh is probably the best fit at WILB if he can stay healthy. McInthosh will be an interesting sleeper if he holds up and Haynesworth is a lazy and ineffective NT that costs Fletcher some opportunity.

 

[Jene Bramel]

Wondering if you could rank these players in a dynasty big play lg. Who is the guy to keep and who should i try to shop around.Angerer, Pat IND Carpenter, Bobby STL Hawk, A.J. GBP Maybin, Aaron BUF Misi, Koa MIA Scott, Bart NYJ Black, QuincyBrinkley, JasperSiler,BrandonMuch appreciation

Unless this is a 16 teamer and/or you start four linebackers, there's very little to like here. I'd hold onto Misi, Scott and maybe Black in a deeper league. I don't see any big play value in the other players. Of the non big play potentials, if you need bodies to fill out the lineup and roster, I'd rank them Angerer, Carpenter, Siler, with only Angerer likely to have much value in 2011 and beyond.

 

[Jene Bramel]

Do you see DeAndre Levy as a top 15 LB this season? What kind of upside could Micheal Boley have for the Giants? Also what are your opinions on Patrick Chung in NE? Thanks.

I have Levy ranked 13th.We touched on the reasons for Boley's upside briefly toward the end of the show. He's got a lot going for him. Dynamic player with range behind a strong line and alongside a relatively weak back seven with respect to tackle competition. Guaranteed an every-down job if healthy. Could see more Cover-2 looks with Perry Fewell taking over at coordinator. LB2 upside if he stays healthy and gets better than average opportunity for an OLB.

I've had Chung ranked highly since he was drafted. If Chung knows the playbook, there's no reason that James Sanders should start ahead of him. The role that Chung will have in the NE scheme oozes upside. I'm keeping him in my top 15 on the strength of that upside alone and he'll move into the top ten the moment he starts practicing with the ones.

 

[Jene Bramel]

I was wondering if you could provide some insight on the following position battles around the league:

DL

2. Mathias Kiwanuka vs. Osi Umenyiora (NYG)

LB

1. Derrick Johnson vs. Demorrio Williams/Corey Mays (KC)

2. Jonathan Goff vs. Phillip Dillard (NYG)

DB

1. Who starts at both safety positions in Buffalo?

2. Who starts at both safety positions in Chicago?

John had lots to say about the Charles Johnson/Everette Brown situation. My thoughts echo his. I'm not ready to call Brown a situational player yet, but the locals reporting that Johnson is more likely to play on base downs and thus have an every-down role have a history of being accurate.Umenyiora will have to be much more consistent in camp than he's been over the past seasons to change the rotation from being in Kiwanuka's favor. I don't see that happening, so it's status quo in NY until proven otherwise for me.

Johnson is competing with Williams, which is slightly more of an uphill battle. As John noted during the show, at some point you have to acknowledge that Johnson just doesn't have the mental side of the game down. My counter argument is that the upside is still too high to ignore. Johnson is the only Chiefs' LB I'd draft right now. We'll see what camp brings.

Goff looks to have the upper hand, if only because he's had a couple of years in the league to get comfortable. If Dillard can play, there's nothing in Goff's game that so special that will prevent Dillard moving up the depth chart. We may not know the answer to this one until week three of the preseason, but I'd handicap it 70-30 Goff over Dillard today.

Anointing Whitner the starter so early this offseason surprised me, maybe because I see Bryan Scott produce more often than not on the field. Scott may be in the same blind spot that we've had for guys like Adam Archuleta, Keith Lewis, Michael Lewis, Gibril Wilson, etal, though. This is another situation that isn't as settled as the coaches may currently suggest. Today it's Whitner at SS but I think all three guys are strongly in the mix.

I can't see Craig Steltz starting at SS. You don't trade your best depth at LB for Chris Harris after using your top 2010 draft pick on Major Wright and then start Steltz. I think Harris wins the SS job and Manning plays FS on base downs, before sliding to the slot in the nickel with Wright slowly working himself in on subpackages.

 

[Jene Bramel]

Do you see Sean Lee as an eventual 3-down LB and potential IDP star in Dallas when he ascends to the starting lineup as early as next year? What are your opinions on Lee? Is he a guy to reach for in a rookie draft and stash based on his potential? Thank you guys for doing such a phenomenal job on this website.

The front office had him rated as a clear first round pick and dealt up to get him. He'll take over for Brooking next year and play every down. I don't know if he'll be a star, but it's easy to forget that the Cowboys have yet to put a talented player at WILB and let him play every down. This is the scheme that allowed Donnie Edwards to rack up 110 solos a year in San Diego and it's the scheme that has let Keith Brooking, Patrick Willis, DJ Williams and many others run up numbers, too.Lee is a hair behind Butler in the second tier for me and I'd target him in the third round in most leagues. If you draft him, don't get discouraged when he does little this year. His value (barring injury to Brooking) begins in 2011.

 

[Jene Bramel]

Who are your deep sleeper rookie LB's and why?

Make sure you check out our earlier offseason podcasts for extended rookie discussion at every position. Looks like I forgot to link the show in the pinned Warehouse topic, but it's there now.I'm seeing Pat Angerer continue to move up draft boards lately, so it's hard to call him a deep sleeper any more.Depending on league size and knowledge, different tiers might be considered sleepers. My 4th-6th round tier of Riley (could have inside track at every-down ILB job when Fletcher moves on in WAS), Curran (talented every down prospect who could easily push aside the current vet and youth in TEN by 2011) and Edds (will play nickel this year and might be an every-down guy in 2011 in MIA) might fit your question. Jamar Chaney (probably no clear shot at MLB in PHI but has sleeper upside) is a late round consideration with very deep rosters.

 

[Jene Bramel]

Lastly, does the undersized Daryl Washington possess the requisite skill set to blossom into a reliable LB1 as a 3-down ILB in Arizona's defense?

I've been pushing Washington since draft day, and it might be worth doing a name search for him and checking out the print roundtable discussion the staff posted to the site in May for some extended thoughts. In brief, I think Washington is clearly an every-down talent and won't have any trouble moving Paris Lenon out of the base packages soon. There's plenty of opportunity to be had in Arizona, especially with Gerald Hayes slowing down and already dinged. He's a LB2 with upside at a LB5 price in redraft leagues. Unfortunately, he's gotten enough attention now that he's pretty much cemented as the second IDP off the board in rookie drafts.

 

[Jene Bramel]

Can you compare/contrast the 3-4 scheme difference between SDC and MIA and the value affect it may have on each of the 4 LB positions?

I think Mike Nolan brings his 1-gap scheme to Miami this year, with the mostly 2-gap style of Parcells pushed aside. In effect, that makes the Mia and SD schemes very similar. Neither team has had the stud all-around, every-down WILB to take advantage of the scheme, so it's been Stephen Cooper and Channing Crowder making the most of the SILB opportunity. Despite reports to the contrary, I think Dansby is Nolan's playmaker and he'll be running up numbers all season long. There's nothing special about the OLB spots. The value in those roles is dependent on how the coaches match the skill set to the scheme, i.e. Cameron Wake looks like a fine situational edge rusher, Misi should be a Mike Vrabel like all-around OLB.

Who do you see as current NFL backups that may emerge from these various roles to become 2nd half starters? (i.e., players you may stash with deep rosters)4-3 MLB4-3 WLB3-4 ILB

4-3 MLB >> Rey Maualuga4-3 WLB >> Sean Weatherspoon 3-4 ILB >> Daryl Washington (if he's not starting immediately)I'd consider stashing Derrick Johnson if he's not starting, too. And I'd be watching Jamar Williams/Dan Connor and Phillip Dillard.

Who do you see starting at SS to open the season for CIN?

Roy Williams. Unless Chris Crocker gets cut in camp, all four players are going to split snaps here based on down, distance, situation and health.

 

[Jene Bramel]

The 2010 Coaching and Philosophy Changes by Jason Wood was a good read. Could you please expand upon this further and take your best shot(s) at predicting which changes will have the biggest FF implications? And possibly even which players?

Last year we saw the aggressive styles of Rex Ryan and Gregg Williams have huge impact on IDP players from both the JEts and Saints, while Bill Sheridan taking over at DC for Giants helped turn that into a near FF wasteland.

Maybe create three general buckets and focusing only on the biggest movers vs. being exhaustive and covering every team.

Big positive (maybe Fewell in NY?, Nolan in Miami?)

Neutral (Morris taking over for Bates probably isn't a huge deal or is it?)

Step backwards (CHI and Marinelli? He sure wasn't very good at play-calling for the Lions)

Thanks!

Love Woodrow's stuff. We ran out of time to get into these situations in depth, but my extended thoughts on this offesason's scheme and coaching changes are in the first installment of the offseason Reading the Defense. Briefly, there was plenty of movement this offseason but not much of it will have a major impact. Maybe Michael Boley or Rocky McIntosh gets a big bump (maybe not) and Andre Carter and the Buffalo DEs take a hit with their re-classification to LB. Other than that, guys like London Fletcher, Paul Posluszny and Karlos Dansby probably aren't affected too much.

 

[Jene Bramel]

Since the Jags failed to address safety in the offseason, how much patience will they show with Reggie Nelson at safety this year?With the drafting of Pierre-Paul, how will the Giants rotate their DEs?If Andre Carter totally flops as a 3-4 OLB in camp, could you see him going to another team?

I don't know who else the Jags have to play at FS (maybe Anthony Smith), so I think Nelson has a job unless he's responsible for multiple losses early.I don't see JPP having much impact in 2010. Maybe a handful of snaps a game in a situational role at best.I don't think the Redskins will deal him. I think the zone blitz 3-4 fits him a little better and that a team with playoff aspirations isn't likely to move one of their two pass rush threats. I think they'll stick with him all year.

 

[Jene Bramel]

There have been rumblings of the new 3-4 in Buffalo taking on a look that's most linked with Nick Saban's scheme(s) at LSU and Alabama in the past and current. I've read that Saban likes to use Cover 1 and Cover 3 but how would his scheme effect the value of certain players (assuming this 3-4 is reflecting of his defensive style)?

Saban's scheme was interesting in Miami a few seasons ago. I think it's more of a 4-3 Under with an Elephant than a 1-gap 3-4, but there was always lots of debate about that among observers back then. With all the talk about Kyle Williams playing NT, I think we'll see much more 3-4 than the 4-3 Under -- meaning that there's going to be no 4-3 undertackle like Vonnie Holliday to get excited about. For our purposes, either scheme will favor the WILB and the safety who drops in the box most often. An OLB might have some value here, but I don't think any of the current personnel have the skills to pull off a big box score role.

 

[Jene Bramel]

So of the top rookie LBs who do you think will reach elite status. I think McClain has the best shot to reach elite status because he plays the middle of a 4-3 in Oakland and if Morris got top five/ten LB points for years in that system then I think McClain has an excellent shot to provide elite LB points. Also I like the DL in front covering him and freeing him up from blockers. But he's the only elite LB prospect that I see from this group. Do you see any others from this rookie class who honestly have a VERY GOOD shot to reach elite LB status?

McClain >> top five upside, mid-LB2 floorWashington >> top ten upside, LB3 floorButler >> top ten upside, LB3 floorLee >> top ten upside, LB3 floorThose projections assume a perfect storm of situation and talent playing to the scouting report. All four have every-down talent, all four were seemingly coveted by the teams that selected them and all four are arguably in line for the most advantageous roles in their scheme. I'd say McClain is 80% or better to approach his ceiling, with the others less than 50% to hit theirs. But all four have a reasonable chance to have 90-95+ solo seasons if things break right.

And then of the D-Linemen its much more difficult to spot elite D-Line prospects. Morgan is the guy many are taking in dynasty leagues and that is a good roll of the dice but who else of this class has a respectable shot to become an elite D-Line point generator? I like Jerry Hughes of the Colts but he's got Freeny and Mathis in front of him so he is a looooooong range prospect and someone who I feel will be available on the wire later in the year and that is when I'll try to land him. But what about the kid from Philly? What do you think about his short and long term potential to become an elite D-line prospect? I know the system will change with the death of the Philly DC and no one really knows yet how that system will change but in the past it took a few years for any rookie D-Lineman to get up to speed in that system because it was/is? complicated. But how do you judge their first round D-line prospect's long term range to become an elite D-Line point generator?

I don't see any top ten potential at the DL position in the short term. Morgan and Graham have scouting reports that suggest they could be top ten players (45-10) at some point, but history and likely playing time would make betting on either this season extremely risky. I like Hughes a lot, but that dual upside is less likely for him in the long term. Corey Wootton is an interesting prospect, as is Carlos Dunlap, but I think the chances of either growing into a perennial top ten player are remote. JPP is a wild card, but I doubt he'll ever do enough against the run to crack the top ten either.

 

[Jene Bramel]

E.J. Henderson, will he return to studliness this year after his injury? Not much news on his rehab this non-playing season.

I'm not worried about the injury unless he's not cleared for contact pretty early in camp. It's not the type of injury that should affect his explosiveness, range or agility. If the bone is healed enough for contact and there are no indications that he's out of shape and susceptible to compensatory injuries, he goes back to a LB2 with upside for me. I'm expecting him to be ready, so I've got him ranked 18th entering camp.