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An Early SOS look at NFL.com (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter KellysHeroes
- Start date
Snotbubbles
Footballguy
I don't really care about pre-season SOS. It's difficult to determine what Ds will be good from one year to the next. For example in 2004 the Seattle Seahawks were 23rd against the run, in 2005 they were 5th.
Weiner Dog
Footballguy
Colts play OAK and HOU in Weeks 15 & 16.
ImTheScientist
Footballguy
To be a RB/WR/QB in the NFC West 
Snotbubbles
Footballguy
I agree. I was just saying that SOS from the season before is not a good indicator for about 85% of the teams. I think it's safe to say that teams like CHI, BAL and SD will probably have good Ds. Other than that...
tribecalledjeff
Footballguy
No. If there's no correlation at all, it could make it better or worse. You don't know.I find it hard to believe that there is ZERO correlation. Is that actually true?
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weasel3515
Footballguy
Add to that a RB/WR/QB in the NFC South where none of the defenses is stellar either. How about Green Bay's defense getting Minnesota's, Chicago's and Detoilet's offenses twice? (I don't think Chicago's offense will be as good this year). Lastly, this dude must not have watched the Colts run defense in the playoffs because if they continue to play like that they will be a top-10 rush defense, not bottom-10.The Scientist said:To be a RB/WR/QB in the NFC West
ericttspikes
Footballguy
Good matchup for Jim SorgiWeiner Dog said:
Chase Stuart
Footballguy
No.There's a small correlation. But you need to be a bit more specific with what you mean. Fantasy defenses score points; fantasy defenses against are what we mean when we talk about SOS.There's a small correlation between fantasy points allowed by a defense to position X in year N and year N+1. There's a bigger correlation between certain statistics allowed by a defense to position X in Year N and fantasy points allowed by a defense to position X in Year N+1. And there's a bigger correlation between projected FPA by a defense to position X in July and actual FPA by a defense to position X in that year.
Horrorshow
Footballguy
daveR
Footballguy
I am a strong proponent of this sort of thing when it's done right. It's what caused me to select against the Big Cats when answering the "who won't repeat in the playoffs?" post.
The only way to do it right though, as Chase suggests, is to wait until July and evaluate every team's defense, accounting for system, personnel, and previous stats.
The only way to do it right though, as Chase suggests, is to wait until July and evaluate every team's defense, accounting for system, personnel, and previous stats.
Hooper31
Footballguy
I understand your "if statement", but do you have anything to back that up?
nygiants56
Footballguy
not as pretty as it looks, IMO. Oakland's defense was fantastic towards the end of the season, and Houston's defense ,especially their run defense, was greatly improved. Both are solid defenses for 2007..
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