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An unbelievably detailed examination of Cam Newton (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Andy Dufresne
- Start date
Toads
Footballguy
Aside from the Newton analysis, I found the analysis of the effect of a 2011 lockout on the value of 2012 draft picks and Rookie player value to be absolutely fascinating.These type issues effect all of fantasy football and that information is well worth reading the article.
Good stuff, thanks.
Sabertooth
Footballguy
Cecil Lammey
Footballguy
Chris is a good friend of mine, and I'm getting him on the show this weekend to discuss this article. I'll have it on The Audible's feed too.
GREAT article -
GREAT article -
Bracie Smathers
Footballguy
I think Newton is a bigger-better version of Michael Vick and he seems to be working to get over a rough imaturity patch that Vick didn't have to face till he got cornered.I see Cam going in the top five and quite possibly the top pick.
I do not see him making it past pick seven.
Andy Dufresne
Footballguy
I'm starting to warm up to him going in the top 10. In fact, other than Denver, he could go to ANY team in the top 8.
Sabertooth
Footballguy
As a dynasty owner with the 1.1 and 1.2 in a start 2QB league I'm very intrigued with Newton.
Faust
MVP
Newton to the Bills at No. 3?
08:06 AM ET 02.15 | Though Bills GM Buddy Nix remains a fan of Ryan Fitzpatrick, the Bills have reportedly talked about selecting Cam Newton. Nix has acknowledged the need to add a quarterback in the draft, although we know owner Ralph Wilson has said the team won't reach for a quarterback that isn't worthy of being selected at No. 3 overall. ... "I'm not so sure that the Bills are thinking their quarterback position is settled," Vic Carucci told fans in a chat session. "From everything I hear, GM Buddy Nix likes Newton a great deal, and the Bills might very well be inclined to take him in the No. 3 slot. Now, they also might be of the opinion they could wait to take him in the second round, and that might very well happen, too."
NFL.com
08:06 AM ET 02.15 | Though Bills GM Buddy Nix remains a fan of Ryan Fitzpatrick, the Bills have reportedly talked about selecting Cam Newton. Nix has acknowledged the need to add a quarterback in the draft, although we know owner Ralph Wilson has said the team won't reach for a quarterback that isn't worthy of being selected at No. 3 overall. ... "I'm not so sure that the Bills are thinking their quarterback position is settled," Vic Carucci told fans in a chat session. "From everything I hear, GM Buddy Nix likes Newton a great deal, and the Bills might very well be inclined to take him in the No. 3 slot. Now, they also might be of the opinion they could wait to take him in the second round, and that might very well happen, too."
NFL.com
Dr. Awesome
Footballguy
No way does Newton fall to the second round.
Sweet Love
IBL Representative
I don't think anyone was arguing that...there are questions of whether he is a Top 3 pick or a Top 10 pick...Personally, I think choosing a QB from a non-pro-style college offense is pretty simple...Question #1: When your first option is not open, do you (a) look to option #2, or (b) tuck and run. If the prospect even hestitates or blurts out "b", I thank him for his time, and wish him the best of luck. Newton in his one year as a starter at the D1 level, rushed just 16 less times than he threw the ball. I am not sure which pro offense this ratio caters to, but I have yet to see the 1:1 pass to rush ratio for a QB in the NFL.
Andy Dufresne
Footballguy
With so many college programs going to a spread offense, it's tough for any NFL franchise to wait around for a qualified pro-style QB.
Dr. Awesome
Footballguy
\ETA - guess I read it wrong & they're saying they'd wait to take their qb in the second round, not Newton in the second.
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redBourne
Footballguy
Agreed. There are just too many teams that need a franchise quarter back. Further, teams with aging QB's will look to what the Packers did with Rodgers. It's a copy cat league and it only makes sense to let a QB mature and get used to the speed of the NFL before throwing him to the wolves. This isn't to say that Alex Smith would have been as good as Rodgers, but I think the difference in these two players is considerably greater than what would have been if Alex Smith was allowed to sit on the bench for 3 years, behind an all pro quarterback and learn the intricacies of the game. So even if Cam starts to drop I just can't envision a situation where he falls into the second round.Am I the only one that thinks the Browns are not in the QB hunt at all? Didn't McCoy show promise towards the end of the year with his under-par receivers? He also fits the mold of a quick footed quarterback, one that can scramble out of pressure and extend a play.Sorry, getting off topic once again. I'm only half way through the entire article but so far have found it to be a great read.
Did you even read the article? You should, both because it is a pretty damn fine example of journalism, and also because it indicates a) most of his runs were called plays, b) he only ran the ball 9% of the time on called passing plays and c) he did a pretty good job of looking to option 2, 3 and 4 before he ran.Pretty nice piece of writing, take advantage of it and then reevaluate your opinion.
Sabertooth
Footballguy
Remember when Aaron Rodgers was considered a product of the system? This is like that.
Andy Dufresne
Footballguy
I'd say Rodgers has broken the Tedford curse.
LarryAllen'sJockstrap
Footballguy
In the last ten drafts, only twice has a QB not been taken #1; those years, the first QBs went off the board #3 (Vince Young/Matt Ryan).
IMO, someone will fall in love with either Newton or Gabbert (I don't get the love for him) and trade up to #1, if Carolina doesn't take Newton.
AJ Green and Patrick Peterson would be my only other considerations for the #1 overall pick. Bowers and Fairley have talent, but both are really only 1 year producers and I think that will scare teams off.
IMO, someone will fall in love with either Newton or Gabbert (I don't get the love for him) and trade up to #1, if Carolina doesn't take Newton.
AJ Green and Patrick Peterson would be my only other considerations for the #1 overall pick. Bowers and Fairley have talent, but both are really only 1 year producers and I think that will scare teams off.
Sweet Love
IBL Representative
I promise, I had a really nice post with rebuttals to the article...I clicked on the wrong site and it erased everything...long story short, I stick with the following list of the top 10 rushing stats in a given year for a D1 QB up to 2009...for the record, Newton would be #2 on this list with 1,473 yards rushing and 20 TDs by foot.Beau Morgan, Air Force (1996): 225 carries, 1,494 yards, 18 touchdowns Stacey Robinson, Northern Ill. (1989): 223 carries, 1,443 yards, 19 touchdowns Joe Webb, UAB (2009): 227 carries, 1,427 yards, 11 touchdowns Jammal Lord, Nebraska (2002): 251 carries, 1,412 8 touchdownsBrad Smith, Missouri (2003): 212 carries 1,406 yards, 18 touchdownsChris McCoy, Navy (1997): 246 carries, 1,370 yards, 20 touchdownsJulian Edelman, Kent State (2008): 215 carries, 1,370 yards, 13 touchdowns Patrick White, West Virginia (2007): 197 carries, 1,335 yards, 14 touchdownsDee Dowis, Air Force (1987): 194 carries, 1,315 yards, 10 touchdownsBrian Mitchell, La.-Lafayette (1989): 237 carries, 1,311 yards, 19 touchdowns What is the collective total of TD passes tossed in the NFL by this group? 5? 6?
Bracie Smathers
Footballguy
I would say it would be fair to turn around that list and ask you this question.How many on that list won the Hiesman and National Championship and were considered legit first round talents?
Biabreakable
Footballguy
Great article!
I found this part interesting-
I found this part interesting-
So does this mean that Carson Palmer was a higher rated prospect than Matt Ryan and other QBs over the past 15 years? Cecil if you could ask him to rank pre-draft QB prospects over the last 15 years I would find that interesting. Or perhaps could make a good spin off article? No way the Vikings are going to be able to get Cam Newton I would think now although some have had him taken by the Vikings in mocks. Maybe the Vikings should trade for Carson Palmer?
Dr. Awesome
Footballguy
How many were first round picks?
Sweet Love
IBL Representative
None, but the three QBs I recognized from the list who won both the Heisman and Nat Championship are Charlie Ward, Danny Weurful and Matt Leinert...are you suggesting he may go that route?
BassNBrew
Footballguy
Pimp that article all you can. Would love to see the Carolina Panthers trade down. The bigger the hype machine gets rolling the better.Chris is a good friend of mine, and I'm getting him on the show this weekend to discuss this article. I'll have it on The Audible's feed too.GREAT article -
Leroy Hoard
Footballguy
He has a shot as long as he stays away from the purple drank.
Bracie Smathers
Footballguy
Were Ward or Wuerful considered a first round talents?
Did Leinart have the rushing or athletic skills or Newton?
Do I think any of those players on your original list belong on a list with a Hiesman and National Champion winning legit first round talent like Cam Newton?
No.
Did Leinart have the rushing or athletic skills or Newton?
Do I think any of those players on your original list belong on a list with a Hiesman and National Champion winning legit first round talent like Cam Newton?
No.
Donnybrook
Footballguy
Not a fair comparison IMO. The pass protection in Newton's passing highlights is just outstanding.
pantherclub
Footballguy
Cam Newton is the second coming of Cunningham and Manning rolled into one. Teams would be foolish not to trade up to the #1 pick to get him. The Panthers would love to have him but have their QB of the future in Clausen. San Fran would be foolish not to give us their 1rst and 2nd to move up.
Signed,
Carolina Panther fan
Signed,
Carolina Panther fan
QuizGuy66
Footballguy
in the same backfield :X -QGSame here. Anything but draft Newton.Pimp that article all you can. Would love to see the Carolina Panthers trade down. The bigger the hype machine gets rolling the better.Chris is a good friend of mine, and I'm getting him on the show this weekend to discuss this article. I'll have it on The Audible's feed too.
GREAT article -
pantherclub
Footballguy
Its amazing to me that people still fall in love with big guys with big arms that can move. Its like they never learn. Its the intangibles that make a NFL qb good. Not a rocket arm or a 4.4. 40.
King of the Jungle
Footballguy
Exactly. Just like 40 times....every year this happens without fail. Truly incredible.
This is clearly why Ryan Mallett is projected as a first rounder, but what does it have to do with Newton, other than the fact those are just skills in his arsenal? I don't think there's been a prospect like him. Every year we see guys trying to tear down top QB prospects and nitpick everything. Apparently because a guy is a superior athlete he must be an idiot.
pantherclub
Footballguy
I have no idea what this means.
Andrew Garda
Moderator
I think Newton has tremendous ability and could make the transition to the NFL. And the article did a great job discussing his character issues - they just didn't allay them for me.
The mentoring thing is nice to hear and sure, what he did in florida doesn't necessarily speak to where he's at now.
The interview process at the Combine is crucial IMO. The article does a very good job outlining what teams will have to look at in terms of his character and as the author says, he'd better have some great answers.
I'll be interested to hear what people I know (like our own Cecil) hear at the Combine in regards to how he conducts himself.
May go a long way towards determining how high he should go.
The mentoring thing is nice to hear and sure, what he did in florida doesn't necessarily speak to where he's at now.
The interview process at the Combine is crucial IMO. The article does a very good job outlining what teams will have to look at in terms of his character and as the author says, he'd better have some great answers.
I'll be interested to hear what people I know (like our own Cecil) hear at the Combine in regards to how he conducts himself.
May go a long way towards determining how high he should go.
two_dollars
Footballguy
You can polish a turd....
Tickle Monster
Footballguy
I was poo-pooing Newton all year, but I'm finally coming around on him (not just cuz of this article). I think in dynasty leagues, this guy is a nice pick towards the end of the 1st round in rookie drafts if you're well established in the QB area.
Dr. Awesome
Footballguy
Can you name the big armed qb's who can move that have been taken in the first round?pantherclub said:
Bracie Smathers
Footballguy
I think Cam Newton is the biggest question that could effect how the top of this draft turns out and it hasn't been settled yet so here's more grist for the mill.
Warren Moon was approached by Cam's infamous father Cecil to take over coaching up his son but Moon declined because he said that he could not devote the time but he has acted as an adviser for Cam and he chimes in and gives a bit more insight into the work ethic both physical and chalkboard and he makes a nice point that Cam can learn and play in any sort of offense.
Moon doesn't duck the charector issue because he sees that as the only thing that could hold him down and Warren doesn't feel that issue has carried forward.
I'm sure this won't be the last we hear from Newton but another perspective and data point for consideration.
LINK Warren Moon weighs in on Cam Newton
Warren Moon was approached by Cam's infamous father Cecil to take over coaching up his son but Moon declined because he said that he could not devote the time but he has acted as an adviser for Cam and he chimes in and gives a bit more insight into the work ethic both physical and chalkboard and he makes a nice point that Cam can learn and play in any sort of offense.
Moon doesn't duck the charector issue because he sees that as the only thing that could hold him down and Warren doesn't feel that issue has carried forward.
I'm sure this won't be the last we hear from Newton but another perspective and data point for consideration.
LINK Warren Moon weighs in on Cam Newton
knickstorm
Footballguy
big thing is this kid seems mentally tough and has his bearings together to go along with the physical tools.
If Ryan Leaf wasn't completely psycho at the time maybe he would've turned into something....Vince Young is another headcase who doesn't know what to do with himself when he struggles.
Having to sit to back up Tebow, then having to take a backwards step by going to a JUCO and then emerging back, going through the whole pay for play scandal without blowing up, at least publically, that's impressive for these kids who usually get handed everything from high school on.
If Ryan Leaf wasn't completely psycho at the time maybe he would've turned into something....Vince Young is another headcase who doesn't know what to do with himself when he struggles.
Having to sit to back up Tebow, then having to take a backwards step by going to a JUCO and then emerging back, going through the whole pay for play scandal without blowing up, at least publically, that's impressive for these kids who usually get handed everything from high school on.
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GreatLakesMike
Footballguy
Carson Palmer was on the verge of becoming an Elite NFL QB before the injuries.Great article!
I found this part interesting-
So does this mean that Carson Palmer was a higher rated prospect than Matt Ryan and other QBs over the past 15 years? Cecil if you could ask him to rank pre-draft QB prospects over the last 15 years I would find that interesting. Or perhaps could make a good spin off article? No way the Vikings are going to be able to get Cam Newton I would think now although some have had him taken by the Vikings in mocks. Maybe the Vikings should trade for Carson Palmer?
GroveDiesel
Footballguy
I honestly wouldn't be upset at all if the Bills took Newton at #3. Even if he ended up being a bust. I think he has all the tools to be "The Next Big Thing" in the NFL. IMO, the only true concern with him is character as far as foreseeable concerns. And that's not a minor concern, but I think that his past concerns could at least potentially be chalked up to immaturity. His character concerns don't stem from drug use or violence, it's really an honesty issue. Which could still be enough of a problem to tank an NFL career, but I think it's possible that he's recognized how those kinds of decisions can negatively affect him and hopefully he's learned his lesson.
But as far as on the football field, I don't really see any glaring reason why he can't be hugely successful. He has a great arm, is very accurate, seems to be able to read defenses and go through his progression, and is obviously fantastic at feeling pressure and avoiding it. I had heard some concerns about his work ethic, but never from any source that had any reason for that concern. Everything I've read from anyone that would actually known anything has said that he has a passion for the game and works very hard. So especially in that sense, I think it's extremely unfair to compare him to Vince Young or JaMarcus Russell.
If the Bills took a Patrick Peterson, or Von Miller, or Nick Fairly or Da'Quan Bowers I'd be ok with it as I think all of those guys could be very good players. But Newton has the potential to be the rarest and most prized things in football: an elite NFL QB. All this talk of Gabbert, Mallet, Locker, and Ponder, by different draft experts of being potentially better than Newton is silly to me. Maybe it's because they truly feel that he will be a bust. But he clearly has, by far, the biggest upside. All the rest of those guys have the upside of being a mid-level NFL QB like a Matt Hasselbeck or a Joe Flacco. Which most NFL teams would be fairly happy with. But Newton could be in the company of guys like Manning, Brady, Brees, Rogers and Phillips.
Great read Andy, thanks for posting.
But as far as on the football field, I don't really see any glaring reason why he can't be hugely successful. He has a great arm, is very accurate, seems to be able to read defenses and go through his progression, and is obviously fantastic at feeling pressure and avoiding it. I had heard some concerns about his work ethic, but never from any source that had any reason for that concern. Everything I've read from anyone that would actually known anything has said that he has a passion for the game and works very hard. So especially in that sense, I think it's extremely unfair to compare him to Vince Young or JaMarcus Russell.
If the Bills took a Patrick Peterson, or Von Miller, or Nick Fairly or Da'Quan Bowers I'd be ok with it as I think all of those guys could be very good players. But Newton has the potential to be the rarest and most prized things in football: an elite NFL QB. All this talk of Gabbert, Mallet, Locker, and Ponder, by different draft experts of being potentially better than Newton is silly to me. Maybe it's because they truly feel that he will be a bust. But he clearly has, by far, the biggest upside. All the rest of those guys have the upside of being a mid-level NFL QB like a Matt Hasselbeck or a Joe Flacco. Which most NFL teams would be fairly happy with. But Newton could be in the company of guys like Manning, Brady, Brees, Rogers and Phillips.
Great read Andy, thanks for posting.
GroveDiesel
Footballguy
Ryan wasn't even rated that highly I don't think. He was viewed as being "NFL-ready" but most didn't seem to think that he could be a great QB. I think Bradford may have been rated higher. Although the concerns with his shoulder sort of tempered that for some people. Tim Couch was rated really highly too I seem to recall.What's really interesting, is that in both 2006 AND 2007, not a SINGLE QB was taken in the first round!! With the perception of QBs in today's league, I just can't imagine that ever happening again.<!--quoteo(post=12927574:date=Feb 17 2011, 05:51 PM:name=Biabreakable)--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (Biabreakable @ Feb 17 2011, 05:51 PM) <a href="index.php?act=findpost&pid=12927574"><{POST_SNAPBACK}></a></div><div class='quotemain'><!--quotec-->Great article!
I found this part interesting-
<!--quoteo--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE </div><div class='quotemain'><!--quotec-->We believe that Newton’s pure talent is unique and does not come along but perhaps once in a decade. If he were a three-year starter with a spotless character history, we believe he would be accounted along with Peyton Manning and <b>Carson Palmer</b> as among the elite prospects to have come out at the position in the last 15 years. We do not believe he is that kind of prospect, because there is something to be said for his character questions and lack of experience, but nonetheless we have seen far worse quarterback prospects get selected in the top 5 of the NFL Draft, and we believe he should have a spot in that area of the 2011 NFL Draft.<!--QuoteEnd--></div><!--QuoteEEnd-->
So does this mean that Carson Palmer was a higher rated prospect than Matt Ryan and other QBs over the past 15 years? Cecil if you could ask him to rank pre-draft QB prospects over the last 15 years I would find that interesting. Or perhaps could make a good spin off article?
No way the Vikings are going to be able to get Cam Newton I would think now although some have had him taken by the Vikings in mocks. Maybe the Vikings should trade for Carson Palmer? <img src="http://static.footballguys.com/forums/style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/confused1.gif" style="vertical-align:middle" emoid="" border="0" alt="confused1.gif" />
<!--QuoteEnd--></div><!--QuoteEEnd-->
Carson Palmer was on the verge of becoming an Elite NFL QB before the injuries.
Kitrick Taylor
Footballguy
Now Gil Brandt is saying he should be the #1 overall pick too.
"It would shock me... if he's not the first player picked," Brandt said Monday. "If I was drafting and I had Carolina's [No. 1] pick, I'd feel really good about who I was getting as far as ability. I just hope he realizes how hard he needs to work. You can have all the ability in the world but if you don't work like Drew Brees, Peyton Manning or Aaron Rodgers, you're only going to be semi-successful."<br style="padding-top: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; margin-top: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; "><br style="padding-top: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; margin-top: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; ">Read more: http://www.star-telegram.com/2011/02/21/2865475/auburns-newton-should-be-first.html#ixzz1Ei9bpksI
So in the past two weeks, Dilfer and Brandt have come out as big supporters of Cam Newton. There's also a report that at least half a dozen NFL teams have him #1 overall on their boards.
I think its important to note as well that this isn't because of an awesome combine performance. This is because of teams breaking down the tape and doing some much more thorough investigation into his background.
It sure seems to me like Carolina might just get their QB afterall.
"It would shock me... if he's not the first player picked," Brandt said Monday. "If I was drafting and I had Carolina's [No. 1] pick, I'd feel really good about who I was getting as far as ability. I just hope he realizes how hard he needs to work. You can have all the ability in the world but if you don't work like Drew Brees, Peyton Manning or Aaron Rodgers, you're only going to be semi-successful."<br style="padding-top: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; margin-top: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; "><br style="padding-top: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; margin-top: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; ">Read more: http://www.star-telegram.com/2011/02/21/2865475/auburns-newton-should-be-first.html#ixzz1Ei9bpksI
So in the past two weeks, Dilfer and Brandt have come out as big supporters of Cam Newton. There's also a report that at least half a dozen NFL teams have him #1 overall on their boards.
I think its important to note as well that this isn't because of an awesome combine performance. This is because of teams breaking down the tape and doing some much more thorough investigation into his background.
It sure seems to me like Carolina might just get their QB afterall.
Andrew Garda
Moderator
But of course the important part of all that praise is the qualification that he has the physical tools - but as Brandt points out in the bolded part he doesnt know if Newton mentally can do it.So again, what we hear out of the Combine in terms of how he deals with teams will do more for (or against) his stock than anything else.
Physically I believe he can do it. Mentally....? I'm warming to it but not sold yet.
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