Analyzing Targets: 99 Problems and a Bad Target Season Ain't One (1 Viewer)

[JGalligan]

Ohai guyz!

The following is the full excerpt of the most recent installment of my Magical Target Analysis series of articles. It's all updated and all that good stuff. Oh, and I added a tl;dr at the end for people who don't enjoy reading several thousand words at the computer in one sitting. (You're welcome!)

If you're so inclined, you can read the original one by clicking right here. Twas a good time!

Note: This article was originally posted at GridironGrotto.com.

* * * *

Many eons ago, back when I was a wee young lad — which, if you want to get technical, was about… oh, I don’t know, four years or so ago — I analyzed yearly wide receiver target data from 2002-2007. Mainly in the interests of hopefully finding some kind of cut-off point — ideally a cut-off point where we could predict a certain amount of targets for a wideout going into a new season and reasonably expect some kind of minimum return. Or something.

I’ll admit, math’s never really been my strong suit, so the original experiment was a bit riddled with what you could call certain… calculations that had absolutely, positively no reason at all at even having been included. But hey, you live and learn and then get Huggies, right? Because Luvs suck? Right.

Thankfully, I’ve become much better at researching things overall these days (I'm a Google wizard, yo!) so this updated analysis of yearly wide receiver target data should be a bit more in line with actually acceptable statistics and mathematics and such. Or at least that’s what I’m hoping will be the case. If only my third grade math teacher could see me now...

Anyway, while the original analysis set the cut-off point at 110 yearly targets, I’ve refined that a bit to a more smaller and slightly less exclusive 99 targets. And yes, I may have settled on that number in particular in lieu of just 100 so I could make the Jay-Z joke you see in the title above. Honestly, it sounded a lot funnier and wittier in my head, I swear. Then again, so don’t most things these days. But hey, we’re drifting off-topic.

For this particular analysis, I pulled the target data from the years 2008-2011 for wide receivers via the super-awesome (not to mention deceptively addicting) Target Stats App over at FootballGuys.com. Which you definitely should go and take a look at should you have a few hours half a day or so to spare. It’s the bomb-dizzle!

In the interests of saving some time — at least on my part — I’m going to quote the reason for this particular analysis in the first place with the help from my previous article below. It basically helps to explain why analyzing target data is important, sensible, worth your time, etc. etc.

"To be honest, I’ve never really paid much attention to targets. Don’t ask me why, I just didn’t. I knew about them, but I never really tried to put them in context — probably because I was just too lazy. When you do think about them though, the more targets a player gets, the more his chance is to succeed. And the better his chance to succeed, the more points he’ll likely put up for your fantasy squad. It’s really not that hard of a concept to wrap your mind around. I mean, if I can do it…"

So there we have it. Pretty well said if I do say so myself. And I did, so…Basically, for each year I took the averages in receptions, yards and touchdowns while omitting the highest and lowest data point in each. I was left with the following average — which I’ve been led to believe is much more accurate in terms of future probability thanks to my new-found, actually-relevant statistical research skills — for wide receivers with at least 99 targets in the season in question:

[*]2008 adjusted average: 76.2 receptions for 1,035.5 yards and 6.1 touchdowns

[*]2009 adjusted average: 77.8 receptions for 1,073.9 yards and 6.6 touchdowns

[*]2010 adjusted average: 74.4 receptions for 968.9 yards and 7.3 touchdowns

[*]2011 adjusted average: 72.4 receptions for 1,057.5 yards and 6.3 touchdowns

[*]2008-11 adjusted average: 75.2 receptions for 1,033.9 yards and 6.5 touchdowns

Expanding on this a bit further — namely in the interests of giving us a gauge of what to expect by successfully predicting a player will be targeted at least 99 times in a given season — I also calculated the average for the player with the minimum targets for each year (which ranged from 99-102 throughout 2008-2011).

[*]2008-11 minimum adjusted average: 61.0 receptions for 917.8 yards and 7.0 touchdowns

As I did in the original analysis, I once again set out to see, on average, just how many new wide receivers broke into the 99+ target list each year that weren’t on it the year previously. Even despite the original analysis focusing on 110 minimum targets, it didn’t turn out to be much more — effectively jumping up from 10 to around 12-ish or so thanks to the new, slightly lower target requirements.

What follows is the list of wide receivers from 2011 with at least 99 targets on the year. If history is to repeat itself, we can expect about 11-12 of these players to fall off the list and 12 new ones to jump up to take their place.

Roddy White

Wes Welker

Calvin Johnson

Larry Fitzgerald

Brandon Lloyd

Brandon Marshall

Dwayne Bowe

Pierre Garcon

Steve Johnson

Victor Cruz

Reggie Wayne

Hakeem Nicks

Steve Smith

Mike Williams

Antonio Brown

Nate Washington

Percy Harvin

Greg Little

A.J. Green

Jabar Gaffney

Michael Crabtree

Vincent Jackson

Darrius Heyward-Bey

Mike Wallace

Nate Burleson

Marques Colston

Anquan Boldin

Jerome Simpson

Dez Bryant

DeSean Jackson

Santonio Holmes

Greg Jennings

Now, this is where this whole cluster#### begins to become a bit clearer and potentially useful. You see, all we need to do are eliminate 11-12 of the wideouts above who we don’t think will be targeted at least 99 times in 2012 and replace them with an equal amount of players who we think will be targeted that much.

In addition to this, we can expect — at the bare minimum — about 61 receptions, 920 yards and 6-7 touchdowns from these new players. You see? Do you truly see? It’s easy as pie, really. Well, it’s easy as pie for you thanks to all the hard work and slaving over a hot Excel spreadsheet I did for the past three-and-a-half hours, but it’s all good. There’s no need to thank me. Unless you want to. In which case be my guest.

TL;DR – Successfully predicting which 11-12 wide receivers who’ll be targeted at least 99 times this coming season (and who weren’t last season) could conceivably net you at the very least a 60 catch, 920 yard 6-7 TD season stat line from them. Zing!

 

[wiscstlatlmia]

creative is the writing, in this piece

your like the squeaky wheel, that gets the grease?

LOL

 

[LawFitz]

Guys likely to fall out of 99 target club IMO:

J Gaffney

M Williams

N Burleson

J Simpson

B Lloyd

Guys likely to be added IMO:

D Moore - Oak

D Thomas - Den

E Decker - Den

V Brown - SD

T Smith - Bal

D Bess - Mia

D Nelson - Buf

J Maclin - Phi

M Austin - Dal

J Jones - Atl

 

[mr roboto]

Guys likely to fall out of 99 target club IMO:J GaffneyM WilliamsN BurlesonJ SimpsonB LloydGuys likely to be added IMO Moore - OakD Thomas - DenE Decker - DenV Brown - SDT Smith - BalD Bess - MiaD Nelson - BufJ Maclin - PhiM Austin - DalJ Jones - Atl

Wouldn't be so sure about Simpson.

 

[ZWK]

[snip]

Expanding on this a bit further — namely in the interests of giving us a gauge of what to expect by successfully predicting a player will be targeted at least 99 times in a given season — I also calculated the average for the player with the minimum targets for each year (which ranged from 99-102 throughout 2008-2011).

[*]2008-11 minimum adjusted average: 61.0 receptions for 917.8 yards and 7.0 touchdowns

The "2008-11 minimum adjusted average" is based on a sample size of 4, which is too small for my taste. Let's broaden the sample a little. If we include every receiver with 99-105 targets from those 4 seasons, that gives us 17 players. They averaged:
[*]57.4 receptions for 812.1 yards and 4.9 touchdowns

Not quite as impressive as the 61/918/7 from the sample of 4. It's only about 168 fantasy points (PPR), instead of 195. In fact, only 3 of the 17 seasons had 195+ fantasy points (PPR, receiving only): Greg Jennings 2011, Dez Bryant 2011, and Vincent Jackson 2008. 2 of those 3 (Jennings & VJax) were actually in the sample of 4, which explains the discrepancy.

168 fantasy points would make a receiver about WR32. Which makes sense, because 99 targets would make a receiver around 32nd in targets.

There was also a lot of variability among the 17: receptions ranged from 47-67, yards from 555-1098, TDs from 0-9, and fantasy points from 115-216.

So targets are nice, but 99 targets isn't such a guarantee of fantasy success.

 

[Maurile Tremblay]

Off topic, but I'm pretty sure one of Jay-Z's problems is obsessively keeping track of how many problems he has.

 

[LawFitz]

Guys likely to fall out of 99 target club IMO:J GaffneyM WilliamsN BurlesonJ SimpsonB LloydGuys likely to be added IMO Moore - OakD Thomas - DenE Decker - DenV Brown - SDT Smith - BalD Bess - MiaD Nelson - BufJ Maclin - PhiM Austin - DalJ Jones - Atl

Wouldn't be so sure about Simpson.

I like the guy but a new team and likely suspension do not bode well. Even with no missed games, it's hard for me to see Ponder supporting two 100+ target WR, and I don't see Simpson displacing Harvin as the WR1 on the Vikings.

 

[mr roboto]

Guys likely to fall out of 99 target club IMO:J GaffneyM WilliamsN BurlesonJ SimpsonB LloydGuys likely to be added IMO Moore - OakD Thomas - DenE Decker - DenV Brown - SDT Smith - BalD Bess - MiaD Nelson - BufJ Maclin - PhiM Austin - DalJ Jones - Atl

Wouldn't be so sure about Simpson.

I like the guy but a new team and likely suspension do not bode well. Even with no missed games, it's hard for me to see Ponder supporting two 100+ target WR, and I don't see Simpson displacing Harvin as the WR1 on the Vikings.

Forgot about the suspension. Harvin doesn't exactly stay healthy all year most of the time though. Simpson is the only guy that can stretch the defense. If he plays 16 games, my guess is he will get to about 105 targets.

 

[JGalligan]

So yeah, my bad about being like 84 hours late with this reply. Basically my old laptop got into a fight with a half of a cup of Juicy Juice and got its frigging head kicked in. Anyway, here's my thoughts on the players who should be theoretically omitted from the list next year. I'll definitely follow up with thoughts on the players who should be expected to move onto the list as well as replies to the responses thus far sometime tomorrow. For all two of you who care.

* * * *

In the interests of making it much easier for everyone to keep track of, I've refrained from including the entire list and simply listed the players I don't think will be making the cut for this upcoming season. Along with -- wait for it, wait for it! -- the super-nifty addition of assigning one-to-three complimentary stars to help illustrate just how confident I am for that particular player. Oh yeah, I also combined all this into a tier system as well, which, as we all know full-well, always manages to make positively anything infinitely more fantastic and interesting.

It's all pretty complicated and crazy, I know, but hopefully you're managing to stay with us here as we continue moving forward. Also, just so we're all aware of this going in, I could only manage to (at least somewhat) confidently predict ten total players being omitted from the list for next year. So... yeah... wanna fight about it?!

In the order of highest to smallest probability of omission in next year's 99+ target list:

The "Peace Out, Homes!" Tier (Three Stars)

[*]Jabar Gaffney***

[*]Brandon Lloyd***

[*]Nate Burleson***

For starters, Jabar Gaffney and Brandon Lloyd are a pretty easy sell here. You know, with Brady too busy throwing to Wes Welker, Rob Gronkowski, Aaron Hernandez, Deion Branch and -- to a lesser extent -- all 17 of the team's running backs and all. So we won't even spend much time there simply because we don't have to.

Nate Burleson might be someone that many people may think will easily make the list next season. Especially what with the Detroit Lions finally evolving into their true super-uber-Madden-on-Rookie-caliber passing team destiny over the course of last season. But think about it. Nate Burleson is 30 years old and, as it was, he already had Megatron, Brandon Pettigrew and an ever-increasing-his-chemistry-with-Matthew-Stafford Titus Young ahead of him in the target pecking order heading into this year. But now he's got second-round wide receiver draft pick Ryan Broyles ahead of him as well? I'm not saying he won't have a role in the offense. But it's certainly not going to be a 99+ target role, that's for sure.

The "If I Was a Betting Man -- and I Am..." Tier (Two Stars)

[*]Jerome Simpson**

[*]Darrius Heyward-Bey**

[*]DeSean Jackson**

I almost put an asterisk next to Jerome Simpson before realizing it may very well have imploded the universe. Essentially, though, I think a lot is riding on -- both in general for the team as well as here specifically with Simpson's potential for 2012 targets -- the health of wellness of Adrian Peterson. If he's relatively healthy and in regular "All Day" form then I don't think Simpson reaches 99 targets next year. Close, probably, but not quite. However, if Peterson isn't very healthy next year then I think I'd have to go all turncoat with my prediction and say that Simpson instead would manage to hit at least 99 targets for the year. We're going to have to wait and see on this one.

Heyward-Bey on the other hand is included mainly because of the many other legitimately talented wide receivers crowding all around him on the depth chart (see: Ford, Jacoby; Moore, Denarius). Although I realize that there's many people out there who feel that he's easily the most talented and/or capable of the crop to carry the Raiders' WR1 mantle going forward, throwing Run DMC and the carries/catches he'll no doubt contribute just caps it all off. For me at least.

As for DeSean Jackson -- well, you can stop ranting and raving and waving your arms around like you're helping land a frigging airplane. I mean, come on -- if there's anyone who would completely fall off in terms of both effort and performance after signing a lucrative new contract, it's DeSean Jackson. Not to mention he barely made the list in 2011 as it was. A wild card to be sure, but it's certainly backed by past precedence.

The "Meh, It's Possible..." Tier (One Star)

[*]Anquan Boldin*

[*]Nate Washington*

[*]Michael Crabtree*

[*]Santonio Holmes*

I'll admit that all four of these guys are relative reaches here -- except for maybe Boldin when considering the Ravens run-heavy, spread-em-out-esque passing attack. But that's the primary reason I decided to implement the whole one-to-three star tier extravaganza type deal.

I suppose I could also be bothered to go out a bit further on a limb with Nate Washington as I'm personally a subscriber to the theory that the elite-running-back-formerly-known-as Chris Johnson will indeed be making a return in 2012. Combining this with the likelihood that Jake Locker will get the Titans starting QB nod over the long haul and you've got yourself a decent case for arguing against Mr. Washington again reaching the vaunted 99+ target list next year.

As for Holmes and Crabtree, I'm not really too certain at all to be honest. They just seemed to be a greater likelihood of them missing out on the list next year than some of the players who just missed being included here (see: Bryant, Dez; Little, Greg). I would imagine somewhere in the realm of spots 8-12 of those who miss the list the following year are usually due to injuries or suspensions or some such. Which probably explains why it was so damn difficult to pick anymore than eight people to miss the list next year. But that's a topic for another day.

 

[lbouchard]

There's no way Greg Little doesn't get 100 targets again. He's Cleveland's only WR. I'd also be shocked if Dez fell off the list.

 

[Dave Stauff]

I'd be surprised if Blackmon isn't on it . . .

 

[JGalligan]

Speaking of rookies, I went ahead and took a look at how many wide receivers made the 99+ target list in their initial rookie seasons from all the way back in 2002 until the present (2011, dummy). Honestly, I'm not entirely sure how useful the data is but maybe if I went through and looked at how many of these guys did/didn't make the list the year following their rookie season? If anyone is interested in the latter data and/or thinks it would be useful combined with the info below, then just lemme know and I'll make it happen. Cause I'm super nice like that and totally not newly addicted to playing with NFL statistics in Microsoft Excel.

Without further ado:

2002: N/A

2003: Anquan Boldin, Andre Johnson

2004: Michael Clayton, Larry Fitzgerald, Roy Williams

2005: N/A

2006: Marques Colston, Greg Jennings

2007: Dwayne Bowe

2008: Donnie Avery, DeSean Jackson, Eddie Royal

2009: N/A

2010: Mike Williams (TB)

2011: A.J. Green, Greg Little

Seems like it's either hit or miss, really, doesn't it? Which is unsurprising really, because that's often the case with wide receiver draft classes in general. At least in regards to their legacy and whatnot.

Anyway, what this all averages out to (at least since 2002 anyway) is approximately 1.5 rookie wide receivers break onto the minimum 99+ target list each year. True, I was also hoping the average was closer to an actually whole number, but hey -- what can you do. I'll see what the popular opinion is on whether it'd be prudent or not to investigate this any further -- either that, or maybe pursuing what the list turnover is over the course of a longer 3-4, maybe even 5+ year period of time is instead of just year-to-year.

 

[Truman]

Off topic, but I'm pretty sure one of Jay-Z's problems is obsessively keeping track of how many problems he has.

 

[cvnpoka]

i think injuries throw a wrench in this type of list addition and subtraction. i mean, miles austin and andre johnson only need to stay marginally healthy to return to the list.