Some things to keep in mind about Brown. First, Tom O'Brien took over the program before the 2007 season, Brown's junior season. It quickly became apparent that the team had a big problem with talent and depth at certain positions, notably including QB and OL. A couple things on that:
41% Attrition Rate from 2005 & 2006 Recruiting Classes
NC State's football program is depleted of depth and currently undergoing a major rebuilding project.
Hopefully our fans have begun to realize that we are in a total rebuild mode and potentially several years behind other schools who made coaching changes at the same time we hired TOB.
Neither is this a watershed season in the evolution of Wolfpack football. The program O'Brien inherited from Chuck Amato in December 2006 was on shaky numerical ground. Of the 41 players State signed in 2005 and 2006, 17 are already gone. That 41 percent attrition rate far exceeds the personnel losses sustained by the other three ACC programs that changed administrations at the same time. (North Carolina's is at 18 percent; Miami has lost nine of 37 players from those classes or 24 percent; and Boston College, which O'Brien left to come to Raleigh, has seen six of 35 signees or 17 percent head elsewhere.)
Related to this, I emailed the following to a friend in mid October 2008, having compiled the data from various sources:
State's 2004 recruiting class had 18 commitments. This is the current redshirt senior class. 11 of these players played out or are playing out their eligibility and one other went pro early.
State's 2005 recruiting class had 22 commitments. This is the current senior/redshirt junior class. 12 of these players are currently playing out their eligibility.
State's 2006 recruiting class had 20 commitments. This is the current junior/redshirt sophomore class. 10 of these players are currently playing out their eligibility, and one other is currently on academic suspension and could return in the future.
Those were Amato's last 3 recruiting classes. I don't know how this compares to other programs, but I have to believe this is not normal - that is a 3 year stretch from which at best less than 60% of the recruits can possibly play out their eligibilty. That is why our team was so awful when O'Brien took over and why he is still rebuilding. It will be 2010 before that damage will be undone.
The OL was in terrible shape, as is mentioned in a couple of the quotes below. And the QBs in 2007 combined for a 14/24 TD/Int ratio.
2008 N.C. State Football Preview
Last year North Carolina State had one of the worst rushing offenses in the nation and one of the worst rushing defenses. Fixing the running game on both sides of the ball is a major priority for Coach Tom O'Brien...
Luckily, one of those issues will take care of itself. Jamelle Eugene is back after rushing for a team high 667 yards last season, but more importantly so are Andre Brown and Toney Baker after missing much of last season with injuries. Add sophomore Curtis Underwood to that list and the Wolfpack suddenly have four quality runners. However, it was not the running backs fault that the team could not run last year. It was the offensive line. The line does return Curtis Crouch and Julian Williams, but that does not mean too much. In an effort to at least bolster the depth of the o-line, John Bedics and Ted Larsen will move over from the defensive line, but the unit will have to make drastic improvements if the team's best strength at running back is going to be utilized.
2008 N.C. State Football Preview
The Wolfpack have a trio of talented runners. Andre Brown, Toney Baker and Jamelle Eugene can all get it done with the ball in their hands. However, there aren't enough carries to go around for all three of them. As a result, Baker will probably see a lot of time at fullback this season, while Brown and Eugene will split duties at tailback.
Despite having three good runners, yards will probably be hard to come by. NC State has major weaknesses at pretty much every other position on offense. Their quarterbacks aren't good, the offensive line isn't particularly talented, and they lost both of their starting wide receivers from last year's team.
Opposing defenses will key on the running game, and limit the production of these three talented backs. NC State hasn't averaged four yards per carry for the season in 10 years.
Note that Toney Baker, mentioned in both quotes above, was lost for the season in the first game.Also, O'Brien's schemes on both offense and defense were different, and it took the 2007 team a while to adjust, going 1-5 to start the season. State finished 4-2, but unfortunately Brown was hurt in the 6th game and missed the resurgence - he had only 3 carries the rest of the season. Despite the changes in the program and the talent and depth issues at QB and OL, he played very well in the first 5 games: 83/427/5 rushing and 17/139/0 receiving.
In 2008, State lost ~70 games to injury for starting players. Combining that with the depth and inexperience problems definitely affected Brown. In mid September, the team was down to 46 scholarship players, not including kickers, and had 14 freshmen in its two deep depth chart. (
LINK)
I'm not suggesting the Brown is going to dominate the NFL, but I do think he has a lot of potential. His last two seasons, he went through injury, a program change, and was generally surrounded by weak, young, and inexperienced teammates. I think his NFL potential is a lot higher than his college numbers would indicate. He had a strong showing at the Senior Bowl and in practices leading up to it, which really wasn't a surprise.