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Andrew Luck..... Love fest inside.... (1 Viewer)

This has the feel of a manufactured training camp story when there's little to write about. Did a reporter actually ask if he'll be ready for Week 1, or was a generic question about his return date asked?

"It's hard for me to look beyond, really, today's rehab session," Luck said. "That's the approach I have to take ... if you want to get truly healthy. If you want to get better than you were before the injury."

Just sounds like the usual vague athlete speak, coached to never provide actual information about anything.

 
Ghost Rider said:
By failing to address their offensive line issues for years now, the Colts have let Luck get beat up to the point where you wonder if he'll ever live up to the hype. 
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When they used a #1 on Dorsett the GM should have been charged with a felony...

 
CBS' Jason La Canfora has heard "plenty of rumblings" of Andrew Luck (shoulder surgery) beginning the year on the reserve/PUP list, which would cost him six games.

Word of the "rumblings" comes the same day Luck declined to guarantee he would be ready for Week 1. From ownership on down, the Colts have refused to place a timeline on Luck's return. The idea of Week 1 uncertainty hadn't really been taken seriously, but that's no longer an option. La Canfora "wouldn't bet against" Luck missing time in September. The PUP list would be an unlikely worst-case scenario, but it's become clear no one really knows when Luck will be ready to take his place under center.

Source: CBS Sports

Aug 1 - 4:44 PM
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Can't believe he keeps being drafted highly in mocks I'm doing.  I guess that will change as we get closer but this guy still isn't healthy.  I wouldn't touch any colts at their adps right now.  

 
need2know said:
Can't believe he keeps being drafted highly in mocks I'm doing.  I guess that will change as we get closer but this guy still isn't healthy.  I wouldn't touch any colts at their adps right now.  
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Definitely overpriced.

In my big money leagues both Luck and Hilton have been dropping.

 
Colts GM Chris Ballard insisted Andrew Luck (shoulder) will be activated from active/PUP before Week 1.

Ballard said this last week when Luck was placed on PUP as camp opened, but Colts beat writers Tuesday evening tweeted that Ballard's statement still "stands." CBS Sports' Jason La Canfora caused a stir earlier in the day by saying there are "rumblings" Luck may start the year on PUP. It's hard to see. Even if Luck were not to be ready for the season opener, the Colts would surely avoid placing him on PUP to give him every opportunity to be ready in the following weeks. The most likely scenario is Luck barely plays this preseason -- if at all -- and starts Week 1.

Source: George Bremer on Twitter
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Appearing on Jeff Ratcliffe's Sirius XM Fantasy show, ESPN's Adam Schefter echoed concerns about Andrew Luck's (shoulder) Week 1 availability.

CBS Sports' Jason La Canfora recently passed along "plenty of rumblings" Luck could begin the season on the reserve/PUP list, which would cost Luck the first six games. Schefter didn't discuss reserve/PUP, but he did say he's heard there's a "chance (Luck) isn't ready to open the season." If Luck isn't healthy for Opening Day, T.Y. Hilton, Jack Doyle, Donte Moncrief, and Frank Gore's fantasy outlooks would all take major early-season blows.

Source: Jeff Ratcliffe on Twitter 

Aug 7 - 4:19 PM
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The problem with the Colts is that they are awful without Luck. So they open up 0-6 while he is on PUP and then I guarantee they don't rush him back.  

 
Faust said:
Chuck Pagano: No timeline for Andrew Luck's return
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Coach Chuck Pagano didn't sound overly concerned after practice on Tuesday, however. Scott Tolzien, who has been inconsistent so far in camp, is the current starter.

"We are where we are with that," he said. "There's no timeline. When they say he's healthy and ready to go, we'll get him out there. He's played a lot of football."
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 It is hard to be optimistic about Luck playing Week 1 after reading Pagano's It is what it is type comment .

 
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How often do you get a chance to trade for a top 5 Dynasty QB at a discount. I think in Dynasty leagues unless you have two quality QB's you try to make an offer and get him at a discount, knowing he might not be able to help you till mid-season (worst case). 

I'm sorry if my opinions offend anyone 

 
hoffman0001 said:
How often do you get a chance to trade for a top 5 Dynasty QB at a discount.
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Not often... and might not actually be the case here. There's a chance this shoulder gets him shut down for the season, and possibly could involve long term damage that might affect his career trajectory. 

Acquiring Luck is rolling the dice right now. Anyone convinced they know what the 'worst case" scenario could be is kidding themselves. 
 

 
[icon] said:
Not often... and might not actually be the case here. There's a chance this shoulder gets him shut down for the season, and possibly could involve long term damage that might affect his career trajectory. 

Acquiring Luck is rolling the dice right now. Anyone convinced they know what the 'worst case" scenario could be is kidding themselves. 
 
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That is the risk/reward and why you get him at a discount. Any QB could be done with one hit. The odds are that in a year you'll have a top QB for a discounted price. This is why you need at least one quality start-able QB on your roster to consider. 

I'm sorry if my opinions offend anyone

 
Looking at a study on Elite pitchers who underwent shoulder surgery (Jul/Aug 2013 edition of Sports Health by Harris et al.):

BASIS: 287 elite male pitchers who underwent shoulder surgery with 99% on the dominant throwing shoulder.  Most pitchers (276) were professional with a mean career length of 6.58 years.  Post-operative clinical follow-up within these studies was 3.62 years)

RESULTS:
• Overall rate of return to sport (RTS = "return to sport (RTS) at the same level prior to injury") was 68% 
• 22% of MLB pitchers never pitched again in MLB
• Performance declined for the 3 seasons prior to surgery and then gradually increased for 3 seasons afterward, but generally did not reach pre-injury levels.

TLDR: Not everyone comes back to somewhat similar performance levels, very few return to true pre-injury levels, and over 1/4 never pitch again. 

I'm pretty confident Luck will play again.... but anyone assuming it's a given that Luck will pick up where he left off, let alone ever throw as well as he did before the injury, are making a bold assumption, IMO. 

 
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[icon] said:
Not often... and might not actually be the case here. There's a chance this shoulder gets him shut down for the season, and possibly could involve long term damage that might affect his career trajectory. 

Acquiring Luck is rolling the dice right now. Anyone convinced they know what the 'worst case" scenario could be is kidding themselves. 
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That. He may be damaged goods and has chronic shoulder issues for the remainder of his career (which could be abbreviated).

I have not seen him change hands in any Dynasty league trades in almost a month. His owners are concerned, but don't want to give him away at a severely discounted price that bargain hunters are willing to pay and there is a big disparity between the two sides as to actual value.

If you are considering buying him, it looks like there is a good chance that he will be out at least the first 6 weeks of the season, which pretty much shoots down your chances of making your league playoffs in 2017, unless you can work around his absence with your 2nd QB (and most Luck owners are not holding a #1 QB in reserve, at least in my leagues). So you can write off 2017, but what if the shoulder issues continue into 2018? That's potentially two years lost, making it even less likely you will show a decent return on your investment.

I own Luck in two leagues and will hold him, hoping for the best rather than giving him away, but my expectations are not that high.

 
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killface said:
The problem with the Colts is that they are awful without Luck. So they open up 0-6 while he is on PUP and then I guarantee they don't rush him back.  
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Maybe they can tank the season like they did the season before Luck came out and get Darnold.

 
When he came out from Stanford, he was anointed by all to be one of those once-a-decade franchise QBs.  I also thought he was destined for greatness too.  He absolutely crushed it in his third year... but man that 2014 season seems like it were ages and ages ago!

 
hoffman0001 said:
That is the risk/reward and why you get him at a discount. Any QB could be done with one hit. The odds are that in a year you'll have a top QB for a discounted price. This is why you need at least one quality start-able QB on your roster to consider. 

I'm sorry if my opinions offend anyone
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This P.C. babble is really starting to get my goat...

 
Colts GM Chris Ballard told NFL Network's Tom Pelissero that it's still to be determined if Andrew Luck (shoulder) will be ready for Week 1.

We believe this is the first time someone from the Colts' organization has openly admitted that Luck may not be ready for Week 1. To this point, all anyone has said is that Luck "remains without a timetable" and "he'll be out there when he's ready." They've been extremely vague. Although Ballard said Luck's availability for Week 1 may be in question, Ballard said reserve/PUP is not an option. The Colts can beat the Rams in the opener with Scott Tolzien.

Source: Tom Pelissero on Twitter
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Colts owner Jim Irsay acknowledged Sunday that Andrew Luck's (shoulder) Week 1 availability is in question.

Irsay still sounded optimistic overall, acknowledging he couldn't "unequivocally say" Luck will be ready for Week 1 but promising Luck will be back "around" the start of the season. Colts beat writers have hinted that even if Luck misses Week 1 against the Rams, he could return for Week 2 against the Cardinals. The Colts may view the Rams as beatable with Scott Tolzien under center. Irsay also confirmed Sunday that Luck has indeed resumed throwing.

Source: Zak Keefer on Twitter 

Aug 13 - 5:05 PM
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Colts coach Chuck Pagano said there's still no "timeline" for Andrew Luck's (shoulder) return.

Per Stephen Holder of the Indy Star, the Colts have just two practices next week and four the week after before heading off to Los Angeles for Week 1 against the Rams. That means that even if Luck is activated off PUP in the next week, he'll have just six practices to shake off the rust before the regular season gets underway. Simply put, Luck is running out of time. Mike Chapell of IndySportsCentral "doubts" Luck will be ready for Week 1 while suggesting Week 3 against Cleveland as a more realistic timeframe. None of this comes as good news for fantasy owners invested in Luck, T.Y. Hilton, Donte Moncrief or Jack Doyle.

Source: Stephen Holder on Twitter 

Aug 22 - 2:43 PM
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He and M Bennett just got moved for Cam and Olsen in one of my dynasty leagues.  Any other Luck dynasty moves out there to report?

 
I own him in dynasty. I don't know what to say. I think this bad.  Something in my gut around the silence and unsureness of it all leaves a bad taste in my mouth.  That being said to move him right now you would have to find a real sucker.  

 
matttyl said:
He and M Bennett just got moved for Cam and Olsen in one of my dynasty leagues.  Any other Luck dynasty moves out there to report?
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matttyl said:
He and M Bennett just got moved for Cam and Olsen in one of my dynasty leagues.  Any other Luck dynasty moves out there to report?
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Yeah, i traded Luck for Mariota in a larger deal. Essentially Michael Thomas, Luck and a couple 2nds for Beckham and Mariota.

 
Don't worry Indy fans you have Scott Tolzein's steady hand to guide you to victory-upon-victory during Luck's absence.  I am quite certain you will get tired of all the winning.

 
Are dynasty owners just worried about missing him for this year or worried about it being a career ending type of thing?  If it's just this year that seems like a bit of a drop in the bucket for a guy that should be a fantasy force for another decade or more.  Obviously shoulder injuries on a QB are scary but this isn't baseball, are there any recent examples of QBs in their prime that had to hang it up because of arm issues?

 
FreeBaGeL said:
Are dynasty owners just worried about missing him for this year or worried about it being a career ending type of thing?  If it's just this year that seems like a bit of a drop in the bucket for a guy that should be a fantasy force for another decade or more.  Obviously shoulder injuries on a QB are scary but this isn't baseball, are there any recent examples of QBs in their prime that had to hang it up because of arm issues?
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Mark Sanchez?

Seriously though, QBs and arm injuries are scary.  Especially shoulder ones.  Also, a QB today (week 1 this year) is more important than maybe having a QB in 5 years.  Above I traded him for Cam and an upgrade at TE (from Bennett to Olsen) in a dynasty league (also got a LB out of the deal, it's an IDP league).  I think that's pretty good value in today's world.  I'm much more comfortable going into this season with Cam than I am Luck right now.  There is still a pretty good chance that he ends up on PUP to start the season - at which point he's missing half of your regular season.  Sure he may come back and have another decade - but no guarantee that the league stays around that long, or me in it.

 
matttyl said:
Mark Sanchez?

Seriously though, QBs and arm injuries are scary.  Especially shoulder ones.  Also, a QB today (week 1 this year) is more important than maybe having a QB in 5 years.  Above I traded him for Cam and an upgrade at TE (from Bennett to Olsen) in a dynasty league (also got a LB out of the deal, it's an IDP league).  I think that's pretty good value in today's world.  I'm much more comfortable going into this season with Cam than I am Luck right now.  There is still a pretty good chance that he ends up on PUP to start the season - at which point he's missing half of your regular season.  Sure he may come back and have another decade - but no guarantee that the league stays around that long, or me in it.
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Are they though?  I mean sure in baseball we see it derail pitcher's careers, but I can't really think of any examples where some QB in his prime had his career ruined by an arm injury.  It's just not the same kind of stress on the arm.  One of the only examples I can really think of is Peyton with his neck injury but that was a much worse injury and he was 10 years older, and all he did was come back from that and set the NFL record for TD passes.  The other is Drew Brees when he left San Diego, and of course we know how well that one went as well.  People buying these guys at a discount got an insane steal and it seems like things are lining up for that to happen again. 

It seems like a pretty awesome time to buy Luck to me.  Cam/Olsen for Luck/Bennett seems like a really really cheap price.  I think it's much less likely that Newton is a perennial top QB going forward than Luck is, even with the injury included.  Even if Luck misses 6 games (which is nothing when we're talking about a decade of play here) it's not like we're talking about losing a difficult to replace RB.  A replacement level QB is easy to find for 6 games and I wouldn't be at all surprised if that QB ended up scoring on par with Newton.

I suppose it's possible that this injury somehow ends up putting an end to his career, but it just seems like a bit of a false equivalency to me.  

His shoulder is hurt.  OMG he throws with his shoulder!!  That's really bad!!

But throwing a football isn't like throwing a baseball 95mph, and I haven't really seen an indication that there are degenerative problems there that ruin a QB's ability, at least not likely ones.  Can pitchers that are forced to retire from baseball due to arm problems still throw a football fine?  I don't know the answer, but I'm guessing they can.  They just can't take the stress on their arm of throwing a ball the way you have to in order to pitch.  There doesn't really seem to be a precedent for arm injuries derailing a young QB's career, though of course it could just be that ignorance is bliss for me on that front, I really don't have the data.

 
Every time someone says the words "Scott Tolzein, NFL starting quarterback." a baby football dies.

The horrible mismanagement of this team is tragic and could derail Luck's career entirely.  If I was him I would fake injuries until they fix that offensive, offensive line.

 
Chaka said:
Every time someone says the words "Scott Tolzein, NFL starting quarterback." a baby football dies.

The horrible mismanagement of this team is tragic and could derail Luck's career entirely.  If I was him I would fake injuries until they fix that offensive, offensive line.
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Scott Tolzein translated into Latin means Curtis Painter...

 
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The Indy Star's Zak Keefer believes Andrew Luck (shoulder) will miss Week 1 "barring a somewhat-miraculous turn of events."

With just 13 days left until the season opener and even fewer practices, Luck has still not been activated off the PUP. Even if that happens later this week, the quarterback has not practiced with the team since last season, and it would be a big ask for him to get ready for a regular season game in likely just two or three practices. The safe money is on Luck missing at least one game, and it could certainly be more. Owners who drafted Luck need to find someone to bridge the gap early in the season. Carson Palmer is an excellent option.

Source: Zak Keefer on Twitter 

Aug 28 - 9:47 AM
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Speaking Monday, Colts coach Chuck Pagano was cryptic on Andrew Luck's (shoulder) status.

"We're moving forward with the guys we have and the guys who are practicing," Pagano said in his finest coachspeak. "I’m not a bookie, I’m not an oddsmaker, but I’m not allowed to put numbers (on it)," Pagano said of Luck's odds of suiting up in Week 1. The preponderance of evidence suggests Luck will not be ready for the opener, and perhaps many weeks after. If you're taking the mid-round plunge on Luck, you need to find a late-round piggyback.

Source: Zak Keefer on Twitter 

Aug 28 - 1:26 PM
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Well the way things are going they may end up with the # 1 pick. Then they can pick Darnold and trade Luck to the Jets.

 
dropped to QB14 in my draft the other night, I snagged him at that price point.. hoping for a start by week 4, I have Dalton as my fill in

 
On Mike and Mike this morning the talk was that he'd miss "about the first month of the season." I'll go with 4 weeks. 

 
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