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Andrew Luck..... Love fest inside.... (3 Viewers)

maybe do some research on if WRs lose anything at age 29? Are you just trolling now?
APEX has done the study on WR1 fall off: 

“To start this study, we must define a peak season for an NFL wide receiver. In 2017, Marvin Jones finished as the 11th wide receiver, scoring 225.1 PPR fantasy points. For the purpose of the study, we will include all wide receivers who finished with at least 225 PPR fantasy points since 2000, which gives us a sample size of 291 players.

The average age of this cohort is 27.38 years old. This is a distribution graph of the ages of the peak seasons.”

 
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Well whatever about everything else, it's silly to downgrade him becaust TY is all of the sudden 29. How much are you down grading Ben since AB is 29?
TY’s age is one of many complicating risk factors with Luck. Rust. Risk of not returning to 100%. Limited weapons beyond TY. Etc. 

A WR turning 29 alone is not enough alone to downgrade a QB due to risk. All factors above combined, are, for me. If they’re not for you, Hats off cowboy. I wish you the best and hope Luck proves me wrong :D  

cheers guys. 

 
Tough crowd.  Since his rookie year, his 16 game averages are:

379.6 Completions
600.0 Attempts
60.8% Completion Rate
7.26 YPA
4,356.8 Passing Yards
32.3 TD's
14.8 INT's

66.4 Rushing Attempts
351.8 Rushing Yards
2.7 TD's.

Staying on the field is his bug-a-boo for sure, but when he's been on it...I think he's played pretty good, no?
Absolutely he is good. Great as a fantasy QB. But that was with his fast ball and the completion % is sub par for an elite NFL QB. He really was a volume play with those 600 attempts/year.

But at 60.8% completions he doesn't look quite as good if the number of pass attempts drops significantly.

Thankfully the Colts don't look to have much of a running game so 600 attempts may be in the cards again if his shoulder is okay.

I'm not hating on the guy but there were question marks about his game before the injury. Now there is a lot more to be concerned with.

 
APEX has done the study: 

“To start this study, we must define a peak season for an NFL wide receiver. In 2017, Marvin Jones finished as the 11th wide receiver, scoring 225.1 PPR fantasy points. For the purpose of the study, we will include all wide receivers who finished with at least 225 PPR fantasy points since 2000, which gives us a sample size of 291 players.

The average age of this cohort is 27.38 years old. This is a distribution graph of the ages of the peak seasons.”
That doesn't show the point you are trying to make though. Will Hilton's production fall each year going forward? Most likely yes so he is technically in a downslope of course but he's also in the range of his very best seasons still at 29. And that's not even mentioning that he's only 28 NOW and won't be 29 until the middle of November.

 
The defense is absolutely dreadful so while I may fade the two Jax games, Luck and the Colts will be in a ton of shootouts this year.

 
Unfortunately this is the absolute worst time to debate a player. You generally have people who are extremely emotionally invested in someone having just drafted them… And yet you are a week or two away from actually seeing any game data that can provide real feedback on how good the players. In Luck’s extreme case, you’re approaching two years without any viable data. 
:goodposting:

As someone who hasn't yet drafted and is trying to decide what I think about Luck, I find threads like this to be incredibly unhelpful. That's not even meant as a criticism of anyone; I think it's human nature that, once you've made your decision, you dig in and defend it. I suspect in most cases what it comes down to is a gut feeling about whether Luck will return to form or not. Because I don't have a strong opinion on the issue to start, I find these debates unhelpful because, as you say, they're not based on any actual data.

 
That doesn't show the point you are trying to make though. Will Hilton's production fall each year going forward? Most likely yes so he is technically in a downslope of course but he's also in the range of his very best seasons still at 29. And that's not even mentioning that he's only 28 NOW and won't be 29 until the middle of November.
I said he was entering the twilight of his career. The study ABSOLUTELY shows the point I’m tryjng to make. It clearly states the highest likelyhood of being a WR1s is 27, and the likelyhood goes down from there... aka the twilight years for most WRs. 

If you’re having trouble grasping that then i can’t really help you and there’s not much point in continuing this discussion.

Again, I wish you luck in your Luck and/or TY ownership this year :thumbup:  

 
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:goodposting:

As someone who hasn't yet drafted and is trying to decide what I think about Luck, I find threads like this to be incredibly unhelpful. That's not even meant as a criticism of anyone; I think it's human nature that, once you've made your decision, you dig in and defend it. I suspect in most cases what it comes down to is a gut feeling about whether Luck will return to form or not. Because I don't have a strong opinion on the issue to start, I find these debates unhelpful because, as you say, they're not based on any actual data.
I’ve done my best to provide data on likelyhood of 29yo WRs performing at a WR1 level, of “return to sport” studies for shoulder surgery on “throwing” atheletes.

The problem is people who are emotionally invested will desperately try to shoot holes in data, and conversely there are always exceptions to the data that emerge as outliers. 

In the end with Luck, it comes down to your risk tolerance. Anyone pretending there isn’t risk is delusional or in denial. But at some point/price  every player’s risk becomes palatable. It’s up to you to decide where that point is.

 
I said he was entering the twilight of his career. The study ABSOLUTELY shows the point I’m tryjng to make. It clearly states the highest likelyhood of being a WR1s is 27, and the likelyhood goes down from there... aka the twilight years for most WRs. 

If you’re having trouble grasping that then i can’t really help you and there’s not much point in continuing this discussion.

Again, I wish you luck in your Luck and/or TY ownership this year :thumbup:  
We need to see more than that graph to make an informed opinion about what it does or does not show.  It is no guarantee that there is a statistically significant difference between age 27 & 28 from looking at that graph.  Do you have a link to the study?

 
I’ve done my best to provide data on likelyhood of 29yo WRs performing at a WR1 level, of “return to sport” studies for shoulder surgery on “throwing” atheletes.

The problem is people who are emotionally invested will desperately try to shoot holes in data, and conversely there are always exceptions to the data that emerge as outliers. 

In the end with Luck, it comes down to your risk tolerance. Anyone pretending there isn’t risk is delusional or in denial. But at some point/price  every player’s risk becomes palatable. It’s up to you to decide where that point is.
TY is 28, did the study break down individual games before and after the given age or was it by seasons? If it was the latter did it use the player age from the beginning or end of the season.  That makes a big difference.

 
I said he was entering the twilight of his career. The study ABSOLUTELY shows the point I’m tryjng to make. It clearly states the highest likelyhood of being a WR1s is 27, and the likelyhood goes down from there... aka the twilight years for most WRs. 

If you’re having trouble grasping that then i can’t really help you and there’s not much point in continuing this discussion.

Again, I wish you luck in your Luck and/or TY ownership this year :thumbup:  
That's not what you said at all. You tried to implied that 26 year old is much better than 29 year old TY Hilton - which wouldn't necessarily be true even if he was 29 (he's not).

I do not own Luck (or Hilton) at all in any dynasty and do not draft in redraft until Saturday.

This board is for learning and when people post misinformation it's not helpful. So if you want to say you'd have health and rust concerns that's very valid but saying his weapons and o-line are worse is just not true.

And we don't need to continue the conversation.

 
TY’s age is one of many complicating risk factors with Luck. Rust. Risk of not returning to 100%. Limited weapons beyond TY. Etc. 

A WR turning 29 alone is not enough alone to downgrade a QB due to risk. All factors above combined, are, for me. If they’re not for you, Hats off cowboy. I wish you the best and hope Luck proves me wrong :D  

cheers guys. 
Some of your arguments have some merit, but TY Hilton's age does not.

 
Some of your arguments have some merit, but TY Hilton's age does not.
In your opinion. 

I’ll ask this very simple question. What do you think are the odds TY’s skill set has eroded to any measurable degree since he last had a 1k yard season with Luck? 

I’m assumjng you’re of the opinion there is absolutely 0% chance they’ve eroded at all since the 26/27 turn as turns the corner from 28/29yo? 

If so, that’s cool :thumbup:  Beatiful thing about this time of the season is everyone has an opinion and nobody’s right or wrong yet :D  

Cheers Guys. We can all circle back around week 4 and see if the caution was warranted or if I missed out on getting 2016 Luck. :)  

 
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Absolutely he is good. Great as a fantasy QB. But that was with his fast ball and the completion % is sub par for an elite NFL QB. He really was a volume play with those 600 attempts/year.

But at 60.8% completions he doesn't look quite as good if the number of pass attempts drops significantly.

Thankfully the Colts don't look to have much of a running game so 600 attempts may be in the cards again if his shoulder is okay.

I'm not hating on the guy but there were question marks about his game before the injury. Now there is a lot more to be concerned with.
I'd probably push back on this.  Recognizing that 2015, he really didn't play well...his completion percentage was horrid as was his INT rate.  There we some circumstances that contributed to that; think about the fact that a washed up Andre Johnson was brought in to replace Reggie Wayne for one.  But at the end of the day, a poor 7 game stretch

But the surrounding 31 games which constituted 2 full seasons of play - he did post a more than respectable 62.5% completion rate.  I think to simply point at completion rate as the inhibitor to 'elite QB play' seems nitpicky, particularly when you look at what he had to throw to.  His best WR is 5'10 180.

And despite missing 10 games during that stretch, he ranked 7th in TD passes, his TD rate was #1 (and that's with the bad 7 game stretch of 2015).  And while it traditionally doesn't get categorized under QB measurable, his running ability makes a big difference.  He's not a run first QB, but he can use his speed/size to get critical yards and move the sticks.

The health question is legit.  He's got to prove it.  If you're betting on Luck, you're betting on the come.  But as far as who Luck was prior to the injury as a QB...?  Tough crowd.

 
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You mean aside from the major shoulder surgery rife with setbacks causing him to be away from the game for 20 months, and TY hitting 29 years old (downslope) instead of 27 (late prime)? 
Ofcourse the injury- if there wasn’t an injury Luck would be a top 4 QB in ADP. I was only replying to the question regarding his weapons. I’m sorry but Hilton being 29 instead of 27 doesn’t change the equation for me. Also Hilton  is still 28 for another couple months. 

 
I’ve done my best to provide data on likelyhood of 29yo WRs performing at a WR1 level, of “return to sport” studies for shoulder surgery on “throwing” atheletes.

The problem is people who are emotionally invested will desperately try to shoot holes in data, and conversely there are always exceptions to the data that emerge as outliers. 

In the end with Luck, it comes down to your risk tolerance. Anyone pretending there isn’t risk is delusional or in denial. But at some point/price  every player’s risk becomes palatable. It’s up to you to decide where that point is.
Yeah, where I see him going in mocks is probably too high for my risk tolerance. 

My strategy this year is to only draft QBs with Top 5 upside. I would put Luck in that group. But in terms of *when* I'm willing to draft them, that's going to depend on risk. Rogers and Brady obviously have Top 5 upside with little risk, but there's no way I want to draft a QB that early. I think Mahomes and Mariota have upside and they will very likely go at an ADP where I'm willing to take a shot.

Luck is in that middle ground (along with Jimmy G) where, if the CW is all in on him and willing to pull the trigger early, I want no part of him. On the other hand, if he falls to where I'm willing to take him, I'll probably take a shot. But yes, you've definitely given me something to think about in terms of recovery from shoulder injuries (the weapons stuff I consider less relevant, because that has never been a key element in Luck's success).

Actually, now that I think of it, don't stop talking him down! Maybe if that becomes the consensus, his ADP will drop to the point where he becomes a value.  :D

 
Luck's fantasy success has been a function of extreme workload; he's #2 among active QBs in pass attempts per game, and in the middle to bottom of most rate statistics. (#13 in yards/attempt, #24 in completion %, #12 in interception %). Unless he performs much better per attempt than he has in the past, or throws it 600+ times again, he's not going to finish near the top in fantasy.
The defense is as bad as ever and there is no one of note at RB.  If Luck is healthy enough to do it, why wouldn't they throw a ton again?

The “return to sport” data for shoulder surgery on atheletes who throw a ball for a living is not on his side. It’s possible he’s gone from “Cant throw a football for 20 months” right back to his old self in a matter of a month or so...  but you’ll have to forgive my skepticism. 

IMO we have a rusty Luck who hasn’t seen real game action in an extended period, who by his own admission isn’t 100% and likely won’t be in the immediate future (if ever), throwing to an WR1 entering the twilight of his career followed by a middling to poor set of receiving targets. I’m also guessing we see a less mobile Luck by design, at least initially. 

If I were doing a bell curve and assuming he plays a full 16 games (far from a sure thing), I’d say we are looking at Downside: QB16 / Median: QB10 / Upside: QB6. If we assume there is some risk of setback that inhibits performance or worse yet gets him shut down for a period of time... then that slides downward.

None of us know for certain, and we will see as the season unfolds. If he comes out as the Luck of old after a few games, I’ll be the first one back in here admitting I was overly skeptical and will congratulate him on getting back to his old self. :thumbup:  
His weapons and line have always stunk.  I totally get discounting Luck (even signficantly) because of his health.  But if we're talking about assuming he's healthy how can a guy's upside be QB6 when he has exceeded that ranking twice before in a similar situation?

I don't buy those comparisons to the 2014 team at all.  When you're using Coby Fleener and Trent Richardson as examples of good weapons that is so far beyond reaching there isn't even a word for it.  It's almost satire.  Trent Richardson?!

Richardson and Nicks were so bad at that point they were out of the league within a year, and if we're talking about a player starting a downslope at 29 how far underground are they at the 36 years old Wayne was at the time?  That's not even to mention that he was a 36 year old coming off a TORN ACL.

The 2014 Colts 'weapons' were TY Hilton and a bunch of pure, unadulterated hot garbage.  Same as every year.  FOUR of the guys you listed from 2014 couldn't even make an NFL roster a year later. 

 
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All I wanna know is if he still has his fastball.....has that truly been answered?  Shaking the rust off, and we'll see him slowly open it up?

 
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I'd probably push back on this.  Recognizing that 2015, he really didn't play well...his completion percentage was horrid as was his INT rate.  There we some circumstances that contributed to that; think about the fact that a washed up Andre Johnson was brought in to replace Reggie Wayne for one.  But at the end of the day, a poor 7 game stretch

But the surrounding 31 games which constituted 2 full seasons of play - he did post a more than respectable 62.5% completion rate.  I think to simply point at completion rate as the inhibitor to 'elite QB play' seems nitpicky, particularly when you look at what he had to throw to.  His best WR is 5'10 180.

And despite missing 10 games during that stretch, he ranked 7th in TD passes, his TD rate was #1 (and that's with the bad 7 game stretch of 2015).  And while it traditionally doesn't get categorized under QB measurable, his running ability makes a big difference.  He's not a run first QB, but he can use his speed/size to get critical yards and move the sticks.

The health question is legit.  He's got to prove it.  If you're betting on Luck, you're betting on the come.  But as far as who Luck was prior to the injury as a QB...?  Tough crowd.
Okay so now we are forgiving 2013 and 2015. Any other seasons or individual games we should eliminate before I can mention that even with all the forgiving we only get Luck to around an average completion %?

I am not hating in the guy. He clearly has a ton of ability but there were warts even before he hurt his shoulder and those warts could be magnified if he doesn't regain his fastball. If he doesn't he's going to need to morph into a 65-67% read the entire field Brees/Brady like QB.

I happen to think he has a great opportunity to achieve that with what I consider significantly better coaching under Reich than he ever had previously. A lot of his flaws could have been magnified under Pagano.

But if he is the guy he has been throughout his career AND he has lost his fastball? I would stay away.

It's all about risk management for which we all have different thresholds.

 
Okay so now we are forgiving 2013 and 2015. Any other seasons or individual games we should eliminate before I can mention that even with all the forgiving we only get Luck to around an average completion %?

I am not hating in the guy. He clearly has a ton of ability but there were warts even before he hurt his shoulder and those warts could be magnified if he doesn't regain his fastball. If he doesn't he's going to need to morph into a 65-67% read the entire field Brees/Brady like QB.

I happen to think he has a great opportunity to achieve that with what I consider significantly better coaching under Reich than he ever had previously. A lot of his flaws could have been magnified under Pagano.

But if he is the guy he has been throughout his career AND he has lost his fastball? I would stay away.

It's all about risk management for which we all have different thresholds.
I'd say going back to 2013...you can do it, it wasn't a bad year.  But 1) it was 5 years ago and 2) it was his 2nd year in the NFL when you're simply looking for a young QB to make a sizable improvement one year to the next.  I'd say he did that his 2nd year and then skyrocketed in Year 3.  But a 23:9 TD:INT ratio, a 6% point increase on completion rate and playoff win are measures I would classify as successful for a QB at that stage of his career.

And we do have experience and data that suggests that completion rate particularly when you get to that elite 65%+ rate is a learned QB trait.  QB's gain better accuracy as they get older not just because they become better 'throwers' of the football, but because their anticipation improves, their understanding of what the defense is doing/trying to take away gets better, synergy with offense gets better as the entire offense and team becomes 'theirs'. It took Matt Ryan 4 seasons to exceed 62.5%, yet we'd say he is probably one of the more accurate QB's in the NFL now with his lowest rate since being 64.7% (2017).  Drew Brees has been elite in this category since his 4th season, but he reached levels in his career later on that were unprecedented.  He was better in Year 10 than he was in Year 5.

To say Luck had 'warts' seems to ignore the premise that he has shown that progress even if his final rates of completion success are below where some of the QB's mentioned now rate or even rate at those parallel times in their careers.  And as it relates to his shoulder...fact is, he started throwing 'The Duke' 2+ months ago after not really cutting loose (save for when he tried coming back last year) for 20+ months.  The observation that he 'lost his fastball' does seem to ignore that he's still building himself back-up.  The 'loss of his fastball' might very well be temporary given the stage of the comeback he's in.

To your point, it is about risk management to which we have different thresholds, but the perception of that risk needs to be rooted in trying to discern the trendline and what it's trajectory is.

 
Great accuracy but it wasn’t a frozen rope.  Still very encouraging and it removes some of the doubt in my mind. He also shook of some big hits in the game so that also is a good sign. 

TD to Ebron week 1
The out he threw to Hilton in the 2nd may have been better. I know he's not Mahomes, but he didn't morph into Andy Dalton either.

 
The out he threw to Hilton in the 2nd may have been better. I know he's not Mahomes, but he didn't morph into Andy Dalton either.
Totally agree. It was only a 4 yard or so pass but TD to Hilton was definitely gunned in there. 

Perhaps best thing for me was knowing he threw it 53 times and was looking better as the game went on.  Throw to Doyle at the end was a strike and likely would have led to a Colt W if Doyle doesn’t fumble it away. 

 
I think physically, he's back in terms of healthy.

In terms of cutting it loose, that's still coming.

In terms of complete confidence in himself...that's a work in progress as well.  For instance; 53 drop backs, 1 rushing attempt.  But a 6.02 YPA.  When he's had 0 or 1 rushing attempt previously...his YPA has been in the 8-10 area.

 
As a Colts fan, some observations from last 2 games on Luck.  While he seems "back", i'm concerned with a couple things I've seen:

1) He seems to be forcing targets to Doyle even when he's not the best option.  I'd have to go back and look, but i feel like at least two of the INTs he's thrown have come on Doyle targets.  Now, Doyle's great, and I know they have a good report, but he's missing some guys who are better options on some of those plays.  I worry a bit he's predetermining when he's going to throw to JD before the ball is snapped.  Their D bailed them out yesterday, b/c they won't win many games when he throws 2 INTs....and they'll be facing far better D's in more hostile environments in the coming weeks.

2)  agree with some other comments about this, but seems he's becoming overly hesitant to run.  maybe it's the head shot he took last week on his only carry kind of having him second guessing.  yesterday from the 5, i think he could have run to the right side and gotten the TD by running it in and he obviously chose to run out of bounds at the 3 rather than try to beat the LB to the pylon.  of course they scored on the following play, so it worked out, but he's the type of QB that should be having about 15-20 yards rushing a game when the pocket collapses.  i hope he learns the right balance, because he is actually a good running threat.  hoping he is just easing his confidence back into this...and again shots like last week likely don't helpw ith that.

 
There is literally zero scenario where i can envision luck landing as a top 3 QB this year even if he is somehow magically 100% (which I don’t think he is), and doesn’t have rust (which I think he does). He has one WR and a middling Line. 

Youre forced to pay for much of Luck’s upside, and many of us think you’re not going to get what you pay for. 

Gun to my head, I see Luck landing somewhere between QB12 and QB18. 


Luck currently sitting around QB20 after 2 weeks. I’m guessing he will sharpen up a bit as the season goes on, but I think my much maligned projection of QB12-QB18 range (QB2) is likely to be correct. 

 
I'm still cautiously optimistic, but I'm thinking of plugging and playing Fitzmagic this week. All the consensus rankings have him ahead of Luck, but it just feels weird, ya know?

 
I'm still cautiously optimistic, but I'm thinking of plugging and playing Fitzmagic this week. All the consensus rankings have him ahead of Luck, but it just feels weird, ya know?
Doyle (and to a lesser extent, Mack) being out just reaffirms my decision to roll with Fitz this week.

 
Luck currently sitting around QB20 after 2 weeks. I’m guessing he will sharpen up a bit as the season goes on, but I think my much maligned projection of QB12-QB18 range (QB2) is likely to be correct.
Told-ya-so bump. Classy.

 
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Told-ya-so bump. Classy.
I don't have a problem with it. He's also leaving the door open for someone(s) to argue with him.

Can't disagree with what we've seen so far.  He's certainly not going downfield so far, and does he even have WRs who will do that? I would think TY, but not so far.

We'll see if things change as he gets more confident in his body.

 
Drafted Mahomes to be my #2 and, to be honest, it feels good to not have to worry about Luck. 

Started Mahomes in week two and I'd have no problem using Fitz over Luck this week (response to zftcg).  It would be nice if Luck could progress with the season and become another plus option.  Limited supporting cast very troublesome - too bad Deon Cain went down.

 
I don't have a problem with it. He's also leaving the door open for someone(s) to argue with him.

Can't disagree with what we've seen so far.  He's certainly not going downfield so far, and does he even have WRs who will do that? I would think TY, but not so far.

We'll see if things change as he gets more confident in his body.
Lack of weapons poses the biggest problem for Luck, pretty apparently.

 
Lack of weapons poses the biggest problem for Luck, pretty apparently.
Yes you would have to think that they will be in the market to draft WRs this off season. 

Strange that they let Dorsett go when he appears perfectly comfortable in a similar short target passing game in NE.

 
Yes you would have to think that they will be in the market to draft WRs this off season. 

Strange that they let Dorsett go when he appears perfectly comfortable in a similar short target passing game in NE.
Sometimes guys just fit better in different systems. Look at Emmanuel Sanders who didn't do anything with Ben, a future HOFer.

 
Sometimes guys just fit better in different systems. Look at Emmanuel Sanders who didn't do anything with Ben, a future HOFer.
I wouldn't say that about Sanders. How many WRs can say they made the winning catch in a SuperBowl? His problem in Pitt was snaps and targets. In Denver he immediately hit Peyton in one of the all-time-great QB seasons. Huge difference.

But yes, I agree with your general point. "Fit" does make a huge difference.

 
I drafted him as a rookie in my salary cap dynasty league. I've got him still but think season he's match-up dependent. he was set-and-forget in previous seasons.

 
If he's not running then he's not going to be back where he was fantasy wise.

On the bright side, QB20 after two weeks last year was Russell Wilson.

 

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