Pietaster2
Footballguy
I think that substitution at the end tells us all we need to know about the state of Luck’s shoulder health and his prospects for this season.
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Andrew Luck..... Love fest inside.... (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Carter_Can_Fly
- Start date
Pietaster2
Footballguy
I dropped Luck the other day, but today's performance only validated my decision in my mind. Fitz is my starter as well.
Whether it's due to the new dink and dunk coaching philosophy, the shoulder, or lack of WRs beyond Hilton, Luck isn't the same player he was in years past. This can change in future seasons, but unfortunately, I expect most of the stat-lines we see in 2018 will be of the 175 yard 1-2 TD game variety.
Don't disagree with you, but I want to be totally sure Fitz doesn't turn back into a pumpkin tomorrow night. Also worth keeping in mind: TB has its bye Week 5, so you'll need a replacement soon regardless (Luck faces NE that week).
fruity pebbles
Footballguy
Whats he supposed to say? Hes throwing knuckleballs so everyone play within 30 yards of the line of scrimmage.
skol asylum
Footballguy
He's back? 
Kwai Chang Caine
Footballguy
Well. I'll likely lose two leagues because I yanked him after seeing Brisset come in for that Hail Mary last week. But this is certainly encouraging.
I played Tannehll over him
I played Tannehll over him
I'll see your Tannehill and raise you a FitzKwai Chang Caine said:Well. I'll likely lose two leagues because I yanked him after seeing Brisset come in for that Hail Mary last week. But this is certainly encouraging.
I played Tannehll over him
(Even worse: I was playing my brother, who sat Goff, and I spent all day Friday and Saturday making fun of him for it.)
Looking forward, I don't really have a choice for next week, but I'm a little worried about him facing Belichick on a short week without Hilton.
Truebluey
Footballguy
Truebluey
Footballguy
![[icon]](/data/avatars/m/5/5167.jpg?1660313464){kind=avatar}
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Insoxicated
It was damn nice to see the stat line for him this week. I didn’t get a chance to watch the game but I’ll be watching in the next couple days.
A couple concerns I have:
1) Just as Luck was trying to open up his arm for longer throws, his target of choice injures his hamstring... NOT the type of soft tissue injury you want to see on an aging WR. Early word is he’s missing Thursday in New England at the least.
2) his completion percentage was the 2nd worst performance this year (64.5%). This was purely a volume play. Does anyone in here expect Luck to maintain a 995 passing attempt pace this season? Get your Hands up where everyone can see ‘em and get you on record!
3) He’s still not running. That used to be a nice boost to his value. Is it fear of taking a hit on his shoulder? If so...
4) He took 4 sacks. That’s not good. With the colts having no running game to speak of, and a poor offensive line... expect more defenses to focus on the pass... which likely means more blitzing and more sacks. Curious to see his numbers against the blitz this year. IIRC he used to be great.
I will say his YPA was solid in face of his poor compiletion percentage. No doubt attributable to an increased ADOT. I’ll be curious to see Hilton’s status/effectiveness going forward as that would be a pretty devastating blow to Luck’s comeback.
It was a refreshing statline albeit with an unsustainable path to maintaining it. I’ll refrain from judging his actual performance until I’ve seen the game.
Either way... anyone thinking this is the new normal for Luck is far more optimistic than I, at least until he improves his efficiency.
As it stands he’s now QB11 just ahead of my projected range. I anticipate some regression, but we shall see!
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ponchsox
Footballguy
Truebluey
Footballguy
Good analysis Icon. Please post here when you have finished your film review analysis. I agree that no QB should be asked to throw so often, especially one who has just struggled to come back from a severe shoulder injury. And they had him throw a deep hail mary at the end of the half.It was damn nice to see the stat line for him this week. I didn’t get a chance to watch the game but I’ll be watching in the next couple days.
A couple concerns I have:
1) Just as Luck was trying to open up his arm for longer throws, his target of choice injures his hamstring... NOT the type of soft tissue injury you want to see on an aging WR. Early word is he’s missing Thursday in New England at the least.
2) his completion percentage was the 2nd worst performance this year (64.5%). This was purely a volume play. Does anyone in here expect Luck to maintain a 995 passing attempt pace this season? Get your Hands up where everyone can see ‘em and get you on record!
3) He’s still not running. That used to be a nice boost to his value. Is it fear of taking a hit on his shoulder? If so...
4) He took 4 sacks. That’s not good. With the colts having no running game to speak of, and a poor offensive line... expect more defenses to focus on the pass... which likely means more blitzing and more sacks. Curious to see his numbers against the blitz this year. IIRC he used to be great.
I will say his YPA was solid in face of his poor compiletion percentage. No doubt attributable to an increased ADOT. I’ll be curious to see Hilton’s status/effectiveness going forward as that would be a pretty devastating blow to Luck’s comeback.
It was a refreshing statline albeit with an unsustainable path to maintaining it. I’ll refrain from judging his actual performance until I’ve seen the game.
Either way... anyone thinking this is the new normal for Luck is far more optimistic than I, at least until he improves his efficiency.
As it stands he’s now QB11 just ahead of my projected range. I anticipate some regression, but we shall see!
1) Losing TY hurts a lot. He is their only long-play threat. Can they make an in-season trade? Even Dez might be useful?
2) It will help when he gets security blanket back (Doyle), but not his ADOT. There were a few drops.
3) He actually ran a couple of times quite comfortably. Got a feeling we'll see more of this.
4) From memory most of the sacks were in the first half. The o-line seemed to get better as the game went on.
To my eye he zipped a few passes in beautifully, especially on the 2-point conversion. A bullet. But there were some weird throwing mechanics on short passes. I don't think he's fully comfortable yet.
They need to get a running game. Mack might help, but it really depends on run blocking.
The continued emergence of Hines is a good thing for the whole offense.
Ebron made a great TD grab today.
Will they continue to play hard for Reich despite losing?
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
A lot of the guys ahead of him are variance plays that will settle back in. His current PPG would have been QB3 last year.It was damn nice to see the stat line for him this week. I didn’t get a chance to watch the game but I’ll be watching in the next couple days.
A couple concerns I have:
1) Just as Luck was trying to open up his arm for longer throws, his target of choice injures his hamstring... NOT the type of soft tissue injury you want to see on an aging WR. Early word is he’s missing Thursday in New England at the least.
2) his completion percentage was the 2nd worst performance this year (64.5%). This was purely a volume play. Does anyone in here expect Luck to maintain a 995 passing attempt pace this season? Get your Hands up where everyone can see ‘em and get you on record!
3) He’s still not running. That used to be a nice boost to his value. Is it fear of taking a hit on his shoulder? If so...
4) He took 4 sacks. That’s not good. With the colts having no running game to speak of, and a poor offensive line... expect more defenses to focus on the pass... which likely means more blitzing and more sacks. Curious to see his numbers against the blitz this year. IIRC he used to be great.
I will say his YPA was solid in face of his poor compiletion percentage. No doubt attributable to an increased ADOT. I’ll be curious to see Hilton’s status/effectiveness going forward as that would be a pretty devastating blow to Luck’s comeback.
It was a refreshing statline albeit with an unsustainable path to maintaining it. I’ll refrain from judging his actual performance until I’ve seen the game.
Either way... anyone thinking this is the new normal for Luck is far more optimistic than I, at least until he improves his efficiency.
As it stands he’s now QB11 just ahead of my projected range. I anticipate some regression, but we shall see!
Of course he could just as easily be one of those variance plays and I honestly think he is. Shoulder still clearly is limiting him on deep balls and losing TY is mega bad. Most notable of all though is the not running. Even if he were back where he was passing, he is not an elite fantasy QB without that 350/3 rushing line. He is on pace to finish with about half the rushing attempts of his previous career low.
Luck's interview last night seemed to indicate that the players were 100% behind him, even though Reich was a ####### idiot on that call.
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Insoxicated
To be clear again, I’m rooting for Luck. He seems like a great guy, and his health issues have potentially detailed what could have been a HOF career. There is very clearly a chance he’s slowly knocking rust off, and this week’s flash was a big chunk breaking free.
I just generally take accumulation stats with a grain of salt when they come as a result of such obscene volume.
Hoping TY’s tweaked hammy wasn’t too bad, but him staying on the sidelines in a game that finished like that one did is worrisome.
I just generally take accumulation stats with a grain of salt when they come as a result of such obscene volume.
Hoping TY’s tweaked hammy wasn’t too bad, but him staying on the sidelines in a game that finished like that one did is worrisome.
You really think he can sustain that over the course of the season, probably will be closer to his first three starts boss.
baymen
Footballguy
First time I have ever had him on one of my teams, but just to have him and root for the Capt. Andrew Luck twitter account makes it all worth it.
Capt. Andrew
Capt. Andrew
jtp1982
Footballguy
Lucks insistencies have had more to do with the schedule than Luck himself.
Through 4 games Luck’s two good fantasy days were at home against lower tier defenses: Cincy and Houston
His two bad fantasy games were away against very good defenses: Philly and the underrated Redskins D.
He is getting better, but that’s a necessity because Colts don’t have a favorable QB schedule in the fantasy playoffs.
Through 4 games Luck’s two good fantasy days were at home against lower tier defenses: Cincy and Houston
His two bad fantasy games were away against very good defenses: Philly and the underrated Redskins D.
He is getting better, but that’s a necessity because Colts don’t have a favorable QB schedule in the fantasy playoffs.
Truebluey
Footballguy
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Team Smokin'
Footballguy
Tough play tonight without T.Y. I would imagine. Colts will most likely be playing from behind. Who the heck catches all these balls? Then I can see hoodie pounding it with Michel to get a look at what he can do to close out games?
Luck looks much better now and he's a hold, just not tonight in my lineups.
Luck looks much better now and he's a hold, just not tonight in my lineups.
King of the Jungle
Footballguy
I have a feeling that he somehow throws for 350-3 tonight but I don’t have the guts to start him.
Team Smokin'
Footballguy
I may have to start him in one league. Wilson against the Rams or Luck tonight without Hilton? Don't really have room to stream a third QB.
I'd take 350-3 or even 275-2 with 25 yards rushing.
sho nuff
Footballguy
Sitting with Luck and Rodgers in a league that does not penalize for INTs. Luck's small history against NE vs Rodgers history vs Detroit had me going Rodgers easy.
The lack of flow in GB's offense, plus Cobb, Allison very iffy and Adams now a little iffy with a calf has me wondering if I give Luck a go this week.
The lack of flow in GB's offense, plus Cobb, Allison very iffy and Adams now a little iffy with a calf has me wondering if I give Luck a go this week.
King of the Jungle
Footballguy
Sasgaard
Footballguy
I don't think it's a tough call at all...Mahomes is simply unbenchable until he shows differently. Denver's D is not joke and look what he did in the 4th quarter. I think Mahomes is a must start independently of matchups right now until he comes back to Earth.
As for Luck, I'm with the King of the Jungle here when he said he has a gut feeling that Luck throws for over 300 and 2 or 3 TDs...for some reasons, I think Luck is going to throw over 40 times tonight once again....but yet, I don't have the corones to start him over Dalton...lol
jtp1982
Footballguy
The fact that this is a Thursday game messes so much up.
My gut said the same thing about Luck going off tonight. The Colts are an underrated tough group and the Patriots are a media darling that somehow became really great last week when they performed their annual Foxboro slaughter of the Dolphins.
Problem is half the Colts will be coming through the tunnel on crutches. I’ve been looking forward to the LT coming back as a Luck owner so I’m familiar with the weekly Indy inactive list and this is different. It’s a lot worse and it doesn’t even include the LT and Center who will be active but won’t play.
Colts will keep this respectable because of they have elite level culture and leadership on this team. But there’s a solid chance it doesn’t end up looking decent in terms of a QB stat line.
This game should be three days from know so the players could have recovered from the loss to Houston. Way to go NFL.
My gut said the same thing about Luck going off tonight. The Colts are an underrated tough group and the Patriots are a media darling that somehow became really great last week when they performed their annual Foxboro slaughter of the Dolphins.
Problem is half the Colts will be coming through the tunnel on crutches. I’ve been looking forward to the LT coming back as a Luck owner so I’m familiar with the weekly Indy inactive list and this is different. It’s a lot worse and it doesn’t even include the LT and Center who will be active but won’t play.
Colts will keep this respectable because of they have elite level culture and leadership on this team. But there’s a solid chance it doesn’t end up looking decent in terms of a QB stat line.
This game should be three days from know so the players could have recovered from the loss to Houston. Way to go NFL.
SaintsInDome2006
Footballguy
Who are his primary receivers now?
- Grant, Pascal, Rogers, Ebron, & Hines?
In what order?
- Grant, Pascal, Rogers, Ebron, & Hines?
In what order?
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smashblvd
Footballguy
Same boat. Leaning Luck for the same reasons -- it also seems the Colts will be airing it out as they haven't had a ground attack this year.
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voiceofunreason
Footballguy
I would avoid Luck at all costs without Hilton against the pats. Ebron is by far his best pass catcher so good luck with that.
smashblvd
Footballguy
Grant, Rodgers, and Hines will be serviceable. Detroit has allowed the fewest WR points-per-game (22.3) in PPR formats. Cobb, Allison, and now Adams iffy for the Packers. Even if they all play, it appears they'll all be less than 100%. If 1 or none of them play, Packers have Graham and Montgomery?
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voiceofunreason
Footballguy
I'll still take Rogers. Whatever the numbers say, I'd don't see any difference makers on their defence. The lions have played the 49ers without Goodwin, cowboys, jets and Patriots. 4 of the bottom 5 wr cores in football imo.
Truebluey
Footballguy
1. Grant. Will b the #1 WR with TY out
2. Ebron. Luck keeps looking for him because of the mismatches. He just needs to make the catches more consistently.
3. Hines. He is really their running game, albeit on short passes.
4. Pascal. A big body (6' 2") that the Colts need. Showed decent skills last week. 6/70 is very possible.
5. Rogers. The worst hands of the group. Will still get targets. Hasn't done much with them so far, not much value added.
Dizzy
Footballguy
Did you mean to type that out loud?
I'm no fan of the Pat's, but would be shocked if they didn't win this one by a wide margin. WIDE margin.
jtp1982
Footballguy
Ya the Pats will win, but Indy’s D is like second in the league in sacks I think and the Pats O line is very mediocre in pass protection.
Brady is gonna get sacked multiple times and it really rattle him you can tell. It’s fun to watch if you hate the Patriots, which as a Baltimore fan I do.
