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Andrew Luck will throw for 30 td's this season (1 Viewer)

Dan Marino started only 9 games in his rookie season, but threw 20 TDs. He started all 16 games in his sophomore season and threw 48 TDs. Today's game is more QB friendly. Luck throwing 30 TDs is certainly within the realm of possibility.

 
'David Yudkin said:
'PatsFanCT said:
I don't think you are too far off on this.The Colts were 10-6 two years ago before Manning was injured. They went 1-15 last season, not because they were a 1-15 team, but because they were a bunch of chumps who quit on their team. Now they have a QB they believe in, which will do wonders for a teams confidence. I don't think 30 TD's is out of the realm of possibility, especially after watching him play in pre-season.
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A couple other folks have made similar posts in other threads. IMO, what happened in 2010 has nothing at all to do with the 2012 Colts. The players on the team, the coaching staff, and the administration have all changed dramatically. That's like saying the 2013 Boston Red Sox will be good because the 2011 Red Sox won 90 games.Defenses played about as vanilla schemes as possible in the preseason. Let's see how Luck does when opponents: 1) actually make a weekly defensive game plan, 2) use more than a base defense, 3) leave their starters out for more than 2 series in a game, and 4) use a bunch of different blitz packages. Luck may go on to be the next Peyton Manning, but there will likely be weeks where he looks lost and puts up some pretty poor passing totals this year.I think people forget how many rookie QBs have struggled over the years and everyone wants to cherry pick Cam Newton as the rule rather than the exception for rookie QB production.
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:goodposting:
 
In the past 5 seasons, there were 21 times a QB threw 30 or more TDs. That works out to an average of about 4 per season. 30 TD passes is still a lot, even if the league has turned into a flag football / two hand touch league.

 
RG III your ROY. That was awesome. As a Cowboys fan I hate to admit it. Poise poise poise. Luck with finish with around 16 TD and 22 Ints.

 
It's eerie how Luck is hardly talked about in here. He's the 9th highest scoring QB in my league, has the same amount of rushing yds as VIck and Newton, and the look of a saavy vet when he's playing. It's not like he's dinking and dunking either, and if it weren't for that miracle Cecil Shorts play and some missed Vinateri FGs, the Colts would be 2-1 right now. Is it just that he's completely surrounded by a bunch of no names?

 
'chinawildman said:
It's eerie how Luck is hardly talked about in here. He's the 9th highest scoring QB in my league, has the same amount of rushing yds as VIck and Newton, and the look of a saavy vet when he's playing. It's not like he's dinking and dunking either, and if it weren't for that miracle Cecil Shorts play and some missed Vinateri FGs, the Colts would be 2-1 right now. Is it just that he's completely surrounded by a bunch of no names?
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When a guy is considered the next coming of Peyton Manning and expected to throw 30 TD's his rookie year it's difficult to get excited about 'just' a top 10 start. The guy is as good as advertised.
 
In dynasty, not much to discuss--he looks ready to roll for the next decade. In redraft, he's just one of several guys taken outside the consensus top 11 (Griffin, Ben, Flacco, Dalton, etc.) far outplaying the perceived top tier.

 
'We Tigers said:
In dynasty, not much to discuss--he looks ready to roll for the next decade. In redraft, he's just one of several guys taken outside the consensus top 11 (Griffin, Ben, Flacco, Dalton, etc.) far outplaying the perceived top tier.
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Just another reason for not drafting a qb in the 1st or 2nd round.
 
Love what I've seen from him so far. RG3 is the flashier player and the guy producing better instant results, but Luck looks like he will be a great passer for years to come. If he keeps this up I'll be holding/buying in the offseason.

 
'EBF said:
Love what I've seen from him so far. RG3 is the flashier player and the guy producing better instant results, but Luck looks like he will be a great passer for years to come. If he keeps this up I'll be holding/buying in the offseason.
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If he keeps this up "buying" will be nearly impossible.
 
'King of the Jungle said:
'EBF said:
Love what I've seen from him so far. RG3 is the flashier player and the guy producing better instant results, but Luck looks like he will be a great passer for years to come. If he keeps this up I'll be holding/buying in the offseason.
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If he keeps this up "buying" will be nearly impossible.
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He was never going to be cheap, but I think you could maybe get him for guys like Stafford/Brees/Brady. I see that window closing soon. I also think he has a pretty good chance to have a better career than RG3, who certainly seems to carry more perceived value right now.
 
I had always heard that Luck was just a tad bit slower than RG3, Newton, etc. This past week he had 50 rushing yards on 4 carries and that was nice to see. He also only took 1 hit on those four runs when he was going for a first down. All the others he slid or ran out of bounds which is definitely the smart play.

It's eerie how smart he plays as a rookie.

 
Is he an every week starter right now? With some of the higher drafted QBs struggling a bit I think it may be time - is he a top 12 option right now? It seems he is awesome at home and shaky on the road though....Jax this week is about as easy a road matchup as it gets though....whats the consensus?

 
Barring injury it Looks like Indy is going to have 20+ seasons with a great QB. The odds of having two QBs back to back like Manning and Luck are pretty slim.

 
'Awful Waffle said:
I am. Like him over Cam against Denver. Also love that Luck isn't afraid to scramble, especially in the red zone.
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I know Stafford didnt have a TD pass vs Jax D last week - was that circumstance fluke based on Leshoures many TDs or are they solid vs pass? I figure national game will be Luck's coming out party!
 
Starting BEN vs. KC over Luck @ JAX.

But it's a good start, Luck should get 300 yards and 2 TDs. Only thing stopping him is the weirdness that is Thursday Night Football.

 
'Kiddnets said:
'Awful Waffle said:
I am. Like him over Cam against Denver. Also love that Luck isn't afraid to scramble, especially in the red zone.
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I know Stafford didnt have a TD pass vs Jax D last week - was that circumstance fluke based on Leshoures many TDs or are they solid vs pass? I figure national game will be Luck's coming out party!
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I think Leshoure's TD's are a total fluke. There was a stat somewhere that in the past two years, the Lions throw the ball the most in the league when they have goal to go situations.Jags secondary is banged up. Stafford took his foot off the gas in the end because the Jags offense is pathetic.
 
I have been considering starting Luck over both Stafford and Vick in separate leagues. Of course the one other time I started Luck over Stafford, Luck (vs Tennessee) threw for 297yds and a TD with just 1 INT...good enough....but Stafford blew up vs Seattle with 352 yds and 4 TD's :rolleyes: I lost that game because of that but the match-ups seemed to favor Luck.

Anyway, to get to the point, I noticed that Luck has had 5 of 8 games at home where he has thrown for an avg of 303.6 ypg, and a total of 8 TD passing, 3 TD rushing and just 2 INT's. In the 3 road games he has gone for 295 ypg, but a total of just 2 TD passing, 0 TD rushing and then 6 INT's. He's also had 20 rushes for 112 yds (5.6 ypc) at home and just 9 for 36 (4 ypc) on the road. So he obviously has played better at home.

This game is similar to the Tennessee road game when you look at the match-up via defensive rankings where he went for 297/1/1. Vs Jacksonville at home in week 3 Luck went for 313/2/1 but completed less than 50% of his passes.

Another thing, in their 3 road games (1 on field turf, 2 on grass) the Colts have only scored 3 offensive TD's and one came in OT. They've scored 21, 9 and 19 in those road games with 6 of that last one in OT. This game will be on grass and outside. Luck will most certainly get his yards but if this one goes like the other 3 road games he maybe shouldn't be counted on for multiple TD passes. So, I definitely am not going to start him over Stafford or Vick based on what I just researched even though it looks like a juicy match-up.

 
No 30 TD season, but he is the future of the league. Really special watching him play already.

 
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I wish people would freakin calm down about him being top 5 QB right now, its ridiculous. He threw for 227 with pick & fumble against the worst team in the universe. Oh wow he ran 2 in, big deal.

 
'wiscstlatlmia said:
No 30 TD season, but he is the future of the league. Really special watching him play already.
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A lot of people thought that about Bradford during his rookie season.I like Luck, kid is doing a decent job. He's mediocre this year - ton of attempts, just OK production - but he should get better.
 
Getting up early and the Jags not making a game of it really hurt his overall numbers. That defensive touchdown at the beginning of the 3rd quarter made the offense go even more conservative, and it seemed like they were content after that to run twice and then try to pick up the third down by throwing (even that last drive in the 4th when they got in FG range, they ran 3 consecutive times, including a 3rd and 4 when you thought it would be a likely pass).

Next week against the Patriots I'd expect him to have to throw much much more, and the balanced attack with lots of running is unlikely.

His 26 attempts last night were his fewest of the season.

 
'BoomBoom said:
Getting up early and the Jags not making a game of it really hurt his overall numbers. That defensive touchdown at the beginning of the 3rd quarter made the offense go even more conservative, and it seemed like they were content after that to run twice and then try to pick up the third down by throwing (even that last drive in the 4th when they got in FG range, they ran 3 consecutive times, including a 3rd and 4 when you thought it would be a likely pass). Next week against the Patriots I'd expect him to have to throw much much more, and the balanced attack with lots of running is unlikely.His 26 attempts last night were his fewest of the season.
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I think they are trying to keep him in one piece without limiting his snaps.
 
'BoomBoom said:
Getting up early and the Jags not making a game of it really hurt his overall numbers. That defensive touchdown at the beginning of the 3rd quarter made the offense go even more conservative, and it seemed like they were content after that to run twice and then try to pick up the third down by throwing (even that last drive in the 4th when they got in FG range, they ran 3 consecutive times, including a 3rd and 4 when you thought it would be a likely pass). Next week against the Patriots I'd expect him to have to throw much much more, and the balanced attack with lots of running is unlikely.His 26 attempts last night were his fewest of the season.
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Agree. He'll go 350/3 total Tds next week. Not much not to like about a 20-28 point fantasy day each week. I'll agree that I think it is slightly overboard for people to be putting him in the top 5-10 QB talk but all that aside, this kid is RARE. He has thrown some INTs that are very rookie-like but he's still thrown less than Vets like Eli and Romo. I think that is pretty good when you consider he is a ROOKIE and throwing to a lot of rookies and being protected by a lot of rookies and not having the luxury of a really good defense to keep him out of bad situaitons.Overall, he makes plays almost every week that make me say "I can't believe he can make that throw", "I can't believe he can do that already (make certain reads, certain subtle moves, etc)." he just acts like he's been there before and has more command/presence/calmness than a good handful of veteran QBs do in this league. That really is saying a lot for a 22 year old in the NFL.
 
'Shutout said:
'BoomBoom said:
Getting up early and the Jags not making a game of it really hurt his overall numbers. That defensive touchdown at the beginning of the 3rd quarter made the offense go even more conservative, and it seemed like they were content after that to run twice and then try to pick up the third down by throwing (even that last drive in the 4th when they got in FG range, they ran 3 consecutive times, including a 3rd and 4 when you thought it would be a likely pass). Next week against the Patriots I'd expect him to have to throw much much more, and the balanced attack with lots of running is unlikely.His 26 attempts last night were his fewest of the season.
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Agree. He'll go 350/3 total Tds next week. Not much not to like about a 20-28 point fantasy day each week. I'll agree that I think it is slightly overboard for people to be putting him in the top 5-10 QB talk but all that aside, this kid is RARE. He has thrown some INTs that are very rookie-like but he's still thrown less than Vets like Eli and Romo. I think that is pretty good when you consider he is a ROOKIE and throwing to a lot of rookies and being protected by a lot of rookies and not having the luxury of a really good defense to keep him out of bad situaitons.Overall, he makes plays almost every week that make me say "I can't believe he can make that throw", "I can't believe he can do that already (make certain reads, certain subtle moves, etc)." he just acts like he's been there before and has more command/presence/calmness than a good handful of veteran QBs do in this league. That really is saying a lot for a 22 year old in the NFL.
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:goodposting:
 
'BobbyLayne said:
'wiscstlatlmia said:
No 30 TD season, but he is the future of the league. Really special watching him play already.
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A lot of people thought that about Bradford during his rookie season.I like Luck, kid is doing a decent job. He's mediocre this year - ton of attempts, just OK production - but he should get better.
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Sam Bradford threw a tonne in his rookie season too, the big difference is Luck is going to destroy Bradford's yardage number. Bradford's 5.95 yards per attempt in his rookie season is a far cry from Luck's current 7.27 yards per attempt.
 
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