Luck is the real deal.
I tried to help you guys outLuck should not creep up on anyone this year. He is not your ordinary rookie QB. He already should be considered a high end QB2 with QB1 upside.There are so many average fantasy QB's in the league like Cassel, Skelton/Kobb, Smith, Dalton, Ponder Palmer etc. I don't know how anyone wouldn't salivate at the upside of a guy like Luck. There will be many fantasy guys that reap the benefits Luck will offer in terms of value even though he is a rookie QB. After you glance through the QB 1 guys (top 10 to 12 QB's) I don't know how he is not at the top of the next tier. People keep on saying that there are no weapons on Indy offense. I am a firm believer that the good QB's make the weapons much more than the other way around. In saying that, every qb would love to have a Calvin Johnson, Fitz, or Andre to throw to, but let's not act as though Luck will be throwing to arena league guys. Wayne, Collie, Fleener, Allen, are a good starting point for any rookie QB.Last year the great Dan Orlovsky started the last 5 games in Indy throwing to many of the same weapons Luck will have. He was able to put up some good numbers in 3 of those 5 games. He had a 353 yard 2 td game in wk 13, a 244 yard 1 td game in wk 15, and a 264 yard 1 td game in wk 16. The other two games were duds, but remember Orlovsky is a back up level NFL qb.Luck is going to make some mistakes, but he has been calling his own plays, running audibles and lining his guys up for quite some time. He is a smart dude. He has an architectural design major degree from Stanford!!! I don't know if many understand how hard it is to get a degree from Stanford, let alone being a high profile football player which takes up a huge chunk of time. The guy can read a defence, he can run a no huddle offense, he will have a firm grasp of his playbook, and he will be able to read what other teams are throwing at him. It's not as if teams will find many flaws in his game and exploit those flaws like you might be able to do with other young QB's.Last year the QB who finished at the bottom of the QB 1's in total points in 12th spot in my main dynasty start 2 qb league was Ryan Fitzpatrick. His stats were as follows....-353 of 569 for 62%-3832 passing yards-24 TDs to 23 ints-56 rush attemps for 208 yardsI think Luck is as good as anyone to put stats up that will allow him to finish awfully close to that QB 1 tier with a good chance of sneaking into the top 10. If a QB like Dalton can throw for 3,400 yards with 20 td's and 13 ints as a rookie I don't see how Luck is not a safe bet to better that season by a good margin.Passing numbers were up as a whole last year. This is a different NFL than 11 years ago when Manning as a rookie was still able to throw for 4,131 yards with 26 td's to 23 ints.This is not an ordinary NFL rookie QB. This is the read deal entering a very passer friendly NFL league. The staff projections seem low for a QB that is as close to the real deal hot shot rookie QB to enter the NFL ever.I am guessing that Luck will finish in the 3,700 yard to 4,100 yard range with 25-29 tds passing the ball with 16-19 ints.
Pretty much right on except for the attempts. Pagano's run-heavy shtick was just that, apparently.I'm not in favor of adjusting projections based on pre-season games.As for the attempts question, I'm not sure where I fall on this. Obviously we don't expect Indy to be very good, and they could end up like Washington or Tampa last year with 590 attempts. Pagano seems more run-heavy than prior Indy coaches, but I don't know if he will be able to implement that in 2012. I could see the Colts with anywhere from 520 to 620 attempts, and I can't get much of a handle on it. I think 545 is a solid projection, though, and is one that I'm willing to work with.Yards per attempt? I think we'll see him at 6.8. Wayne/Collie/Fleener is a fine set of targets, and the average last year was 7.2. I don't expect the league to trend down or for Luck to be more than slightly below average.At 545 attempts, 3700 yards is the expectation. TDs/INTs are fluky, but I think 20 TDs with 3 rushing TDs is a good guess there. And maybe 16 INTs.My original projection was;525 attempts, 299 completions, 3296 yds, 18 TDs and 16 Ints, with an average per attempt of 6.3 and a 57% completion rate.I rounded down to just 3300 and left out the other stuff I didn't think anyone cared about.I'm jumping further on the train after seeing Luck's debute however and adjusting up to;545 attempts, 321 completions, 3435 yds, 21 TDs, 15 Ints, with an average per attempt of 6.3 and a 59% completion rate.I think Indy will throw more than I originally expected. As a team they Passed 534 times last year. My projection assumes Luck gets about 98% of the snaps.I find it odd that not a single person in here has projected his attempts. That's the most important number in Luck's projection, IMO. The rest is just filler.
This is my first time doing this so let me know if I'm doing it right...You were saying?So you expect him to have the best Rookie QB passing year ever...by a lot???4200 Yards
29 TD's
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another middling game from Luck but he gets it done in the clutch.You'll fall far short on TD's, but the rest looks solid.This is my first time doing this so let me know if I'm doing it right...You were saying?So you expect him to have the best Rookie QB passing year ever...by a lot???4200 Yards
29 TD's
18 Picks
Not bad on the yardage but you're about 25% light on the TDs.This is my first time doing this so let me know if I'm doing it right...You were saying?So you expect him to have the best Rookie QB passing year ever...by a lot???4200 Yards
29 TD's
18 Picks
He had 26 including rushing TDs. That seems reasonably close to his prediction.Not bad on the yardage but you're about 25% light on the TDs.This is my first time doing this so let me know if I'm doing it right...You were saying?So you expect him to have the best Rookie QB passing year ever...by a lot???4200 Yards
29 TD's
18 Picks
5 rushing TDs equals 7.5 fantasy passing td's.22+7.5=29.5 with 1 game to go.He had 26 including rushing TDs. That seems reasonably close to his prediction.Not bad on the yardage but you're about 25% light on the TDs.This is my first time doing this so let me know if I'm doing it right...You were saying?So you expect him to have the best Rookie QB passing year ever...by a lot???4200 Yards
29 TD's
18 Picks