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Andrew Luck (1 Viewer)

Looked good tonight. Operating the timing system well with Wayne.

I'll be looking to grab him if I miss out on RG3 as my QB2 (keeper league).

 
Boy it's hard to not like Luck more and more as you watch these pre-season games. Early in the game vs. Pitt he made some mistakes but his ability to forget or recover from them was what stuck out more to me than the mistakes. On top of that, he never seemed to flinch in the face of one of the most complex defensive schemes in the NFL. He never lost his cool and worked the pocket extremely well. I was expecting to see at least some of the "happy feet" last night, but didn't.

His pick 6 pass was about as bad a play a QB can make. He stared down his primary and threw off his back foot. The pass was thus severly underthrown, lacked any zip and was perhaps the easiest pick of Taylor's life. I loved the way Luck handled himself on the sideline after that awful play. He immediately took responsibilty for the mistake, kept poised and then went out and led an impressive scoring drive. Pretty sure I saw him do that same thing in college as well. Luck seems like a fast learner and as an owner in dynasty I think the Pitt pre-season game was a gift. Pitt held nothign back and it gave Luck a great opportunity to observe and learn, which I'm confident he did. If and when Luck gets a major play maker at WR he should be a top fantasy QB.

 
Incredible poise for a rookie QB. I have no better way to put it other than he looks like he belongs in the NFL playing quarterback. Numbers would have looked better without a few drops and if Pitt would not have gotten away with a few holding calls on the receivers. He seemed to recognize quickly where the pressure was coming from and performed admirably against the leagues most complicated defense. Holy crud this kid has a chance to be real good. It must be a very exciting time to be a Colt fan.

 
I still like Luck an awful lot although I think I'm going to temper my expectations for him somewhat in year one. The next thing Indy needs to do is to get this guy a legit number 1 receiver. I will also say that I saw nothing last night that will sway my opinion that he's going to be a great one. Yes he made mistakes but what rookie qb doesn't make them. I did like how he responded to his mistakes and how he didn't go into a shell because of them. It does remind me so much of Peyton's mentality as a rookie.

 
I actually think he has a chance to put up a Cam Newton type of fantasy production this year (not rushing but total impact). What did Rodgers/Brees/Brady/Stafford/Cam all have in common last year? The answer: horrendous defenses.

The Colts defense is really really bad. Theyre going to need to score points to compete most weeks and will have plenty of garbage time opportunities. I have been impressed with Luck so far in preseason, so i think he has a really good chance to be a breakout fantasy QB this year. He will probably throw alot of INT's but he will be dropping back so many times per game that just based on shear volume, hes going to have big numbers.

For the "wait on QB" folks, hes an ideal upside backup to those who end up with the Roeth/Cutler/P.Manning types.

 
What do you do with Luck's projections if you remove Collie for the year? That isn't confirmed, but you have to give it a significant probability at this point. With Wayne and Collie running the perfect routes for Luck, he's looked great (against vanilla defenses). I see some talent behind Collie, but nothing with the precision in being in the right place and the right time. I can see his yards go down 200-300, and picks go up 2-3 due to worse timing with a replacement WR2. Pure speculation from an unproven predictor.

 
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Even though I like Luck, his team is going to be forced to come from behind often enough that he's going to have to force a lot of things in order to try to keep the team competitive. So I'm not seeing any way he can come close to some of these 2:1 or better TD:INT ratios.

I expect that number a lot closer to 1:1. If the team stinks and he has a great TD ratio, it would probably mean he wasn't being aggressive enough.

 
Very happy to have him as my qb for now and his entire career. Very happy I can roll him out there every week his first year.

 
Very happy with his progress so far - if he's putting up these kind of numbers now I am really excited for next year when he has more experience and the Colts add a few more weapons! Should be top 10 QB next season if not by the end of this one!

 
Luck should not creep up on anyone this year. He is not your ordinary rookie QB. He already should be considered a high end QB2 with QB1 upside.There are so many average fantasy QB's in the league like Cassel, Skelton/Kobb, Smith, Dalton, Ponder Palmer etc. I don't know how anyone wouldn't salivate at the upside of a guy like Luck. There will be many fantasy guys that reap the benefits Luck will offer in terms of value even though he is a rookie QB. After you glance through the QB 1 guys (top 10 to 12 QB's) I don't know how he is not at the top of the next tier. People keep on saying that there are no weapons on Indy offense. I am a firm believer that the good QB's make the weapons much more than the other way around. In saying that, every qb would love to have a Calvin Johnson, Fitz, or Andre to throw to, but let's not act as though Luck will be throwing to arena league guys. Wayne, Collie, Fleener, Allen, are a good starting point for any rookie QB.Last year the great Dan Orlovsky started the last 5 games in Indy throwing to many of the same weapons Luck will have. He was able to put up some good numbers in 3 of those 5 games. He had a 353 yard 2 td game in wk 13, a 244 yard 1 td game in wk 15, and a 264 yard 1 td game in wk 16. The other two games were duds, but remember Orlovsky is a back up level NFL qb.Luck is going to make some mistakes, but he has been calling his own plays, running audibles and lining his guys up for quite some time. He is a smart dude. He has an architectural design major degree from Stanford!!! I don't know if many understand how hard it is to get a degree from Stanford, let alone being a high profile football player which takes up a huge chunk of time. The guy can read a defence, he can run a no huddle offense, he will have a firm grasp of his playbook, and he will be able to read what other teams are throwing at him. It's not as if teams will find many flaws in his game and exploit those flaws like you might be able to do with other young QB's.Last year the QB who finished at the bottom of the QB 1's in total points in 12th spot in my main dynasty start 2 qb league was Ryan Fitzpatrick. His stats were as follows....-353 of 569 for 62%-3832 passing yards-24 TDs to 23 ints-56 rush attemps for 208 yardsI think Luck is as good as anyone to put stats up that will allow him to finish awfully close to that QB 1 tier with a good chance of sneaking into the top 10. If a QB like Dalton can throw for 3,400 yards with 20 td's and 13 ints as a rookie I don't see how Luck is not a safe bet to better that season by a good margin.Passing numbers were up as a whole last year. This is a different NFL than 11 years ago when Manning as a rookie was still able to throw for 4,131 yards with 26 td's to 23 ints.This is not an ordinary NFL rookie QB. This is the read deal entering a very passer friendly NFL league. The staff projections seem low for a QB that is as close to the real deal hot shot rookie QB to enter the NFL ever.I am guessing that Luck will finish in the 3,700 yard to 4,100 yard range with 25-29 tds passing the ball with 16-19 ints.
I tried to help you guys out :)On pace for4,832 yards passing28 tds20 ints415 rushing yards4 rushing TDs.
 
I find it odd that not a single person in here has projected his attempts. That's the most important number in Luck's projection, IMO. The rest is just filler.
My original projection was;525 attempts, 299 completions, 3296 yds, 18 TDs and 16 Ints, with an average per attempt of 6.3 and a 57% completion rate.I rounded down to just 3300 and left out the other stuff I didn't think anyone cared about.I'm jumping further on the train after seeing Luck's debute however and adjusting up to;545 attempts, 321 completions, 3435 yds, 21 TDs, 15 Ints, with an average per attempt of 6.3 and a 59% completion rate.I think Indy will throw more than I originally expected. As a team they Passed 534 times last year. My projection assumes Luck gets about 98% of the snaps.
I'm not in favor of adjusting projections based on pre-season games.As for the attempts question, I'm not sure where I fall on this. Obviously we don't expect Indy to be very good, and they could end up like Washington or Tampa last year with 590 attempts. Pagano seems more run-heavy than prior Indy coaches, but I don't know if he will be able to implement that in 2012. I could see the Colts with anywhere from 520 to 620 attempts, and I can't get much of a handle on it. I think 545 is a solid projection, though, and is one that I'm willing to work with.Yards per attempt? I think we'll see him at 6.8. Wayne/Collie/Fleener is a fine set of targets, and the average last year was 7.2. I don't expect the league to trend down or for Luck to be more than slightly below average.At 545 attempts, 3700 yards is the expectation. TDs/INTs are fluky, but I think 20 TDs with 3 rushing TDs is a good guess there. And maybe 16 INTs.
Pretty much right on except for the attempts. Pagano's run-heavy shtick was just that, apparently.
 
Pretty good season considering he has Wayne and 5 other rookies around him on offense. unless you want to count Avery.

 
4200 Yards

29 TD's

18 Picks
So you expect him to have the best Rookie QB passing year ever...by a lot???
This is my first time doing this so let me know if I'm doing it right...You were saying?
Not bad on the yardage but you're about 25% light on the TDs.
He had 26 including rushing TDs. That seems reasonably close to his prediction.
5 rushing TDs equals 7.5 fantasy passing td's.22+7.5=29.5 with 1 game to go.

 

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