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Andy Dufresne's Final Mock First (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Sigmund Bloom
- Start date
Chaos Commish
Footballguy
I predict a new one Thursday.
Andy Dufresne
Footballguy
You be quiet, you!I suppose I'd have to tweak it if a major trade went down this week (something involving Turner perhaps). But I don't forsee anything happening until draft day.Just in case people don't want to have another window open, here it is...
1. Oakland - Jamarcus Russell
The talk of Tampa giving up all their picks to move up to the #1 spot is rubbish. They crippled their franchise when they gave up so much to get Gruden in the first place, I can't believe he'd turn around and make the same mistake himself.
When Oakland can't get the king's ransom they want for the rights to Johnson, they take the cornerstone for the franchise for the next decade. I cannot see giving #1 overall money to a wide reciever - regardless of whether or not he's the second coming of _____ (insert deity of your choice here).
2. Detroit - Calvin Johnson
I think the strategy of drafting Johnson with the purpose of trading him is a solid one. Even if you get "stuck" with him, you've still got the best player in the draft. Ultimately, I think they end up with Patrick Willis.
3. Cleveland - Brady Quinn
Passing on a franchise grade quarterback is verboten. Adrian Peterson is a world class talent to be sure, but RBs are easier to find.
Quinn has been debated ad-nauseum this off season. I like him and think he has a Peyton Manning-esque work ethic. He'll be great because he has the skills and will WILL himself to be the franchise QB the Browns have needed since Kosar.
4. Tampa Bay - Gaines Adams
This pick almost HAS to be defense. I can't see them taking Amobi Okoye this high, no matter how big Gruden's man-crush is on him.
5. Arizona - Joe Thomas
By some miracle, they get the guy they absolutely have to have. If they don't get a tackle in the first, they'll end up playing Mike Gandy there. Which wouldn't be horrible, but isn't desireable either.
6. Washington - Alan Branch
Okoye is getting a lot of press, but is still (in my mind) too much of a risk at #6 overall. Branch has had a poor post season, but the on field performance is excellent. The Laron Landry talk is a smokescreen intended to get Atlanta to trade up.
7. Minnesota - Adrian Peterson
The Vikings got a steal in Ray Edwards last year. If anyone takes over for the injured Erasmus James, it should be him. I just can't see Adams being the pick. There was a lot of yards and TDs left on the field last year by the steady yet unspectacular Chester Taylor.
8. Atlanta (from Houston) - Laron Landry
They have to strongly consider Levi Brown but I really don't like putting him here because I don't think he's worthy. They stay put and get the guy they really want.
9. Miami - Amobi Okoye
I personally think this is a bit too high, but my opinion seems in the minority. There's no doubt he would be a great infusion of talented youth on the rapidly aging d-line.
10. Houston - Adam Carriker
I think Carriker would be the absolute best fit for the Texans given his skills and versatility. He could play any spot on the line. Levi Brown is a poor choice for a team running a zone blocking scheme.
11. San Francisco - Patrick Willis
With Branch & Carriker gone, Willis is the best player for the defensive pick they sorely need. They could opt for Levi Brown if all three go before their pick.
12. Buffalo - Paul Posluszny
This guy just screams of being a Marv Levy type player. I think it's easier to find a decent runner later in this draft than it is a decent linebacker. Poz has shown his versatility playing both inside and out, so the Bills can figure out where works best.
13. St. Louis - Jamaal Anderson
No matter which player it is, I believe the pick will be along the defensive line. Which means you should expect them to pick a cornerback.
14. Carolina - Greg Olsen
New offensive coordinator has a history of working with TE's and a speed guy like Olsen would make life a LOT easier for Steve Smith.
15. Pittsburgh - Levi Brown
Can play either right or left tackle.
16. Green Bay - Marshawn Lynch
Vernand Morency? I highly doubt it. But he would make a good 1-2 punch with the #2 rookie RB available.
17. Jacksonville - Ted Ginn
Impact in all phases of the game. Jags need faster feet at the WR position.
18. Cincinnati - Darrelle Revis
Best overall CB in the draft and fills a huge need.
19. Tennessee - Leon Hall
Pacman's suspension forces their hand.
20. New York Giants - Lawrence Timmons
Unless they're planning on playing dime coverage full time, it's probably a good idea to have more than just Antonio Pierce at the LB position.
21. Denver - Anthony Spencer
Joe Thomas called him the most difficult guy he faced.
22. Dallas - Chris Houston
Possibly the best coverage CB in the draft gives them a much needed upgrade opposite the underrated Newman.
23. Kansas City - Justin Blalock
Shield's retirement really hurts and the o-line is old as a whole. Blalock's flexibility wins out over a DT.
24. New England - Michael Griffin
Bye, bye Rodney. You were good in your time, but your time is up.
25. New York Jets - Aaron Ross
Another WR wouldn't hurt either, but CB is a very weak spot on the roster.
26. Philadelphia - Jon Beason
Trotter's knees are giving out and the Eagles should break the pattern of not drafting a LB early.
27. New Orleans - Dwayne Bowe
The hometown guy fits in great with the rotation of Colston & Henderson.
28. New England - David Harris
Really seems like a Belichick type guy.
29. Baltimore - Ryan Kalil
Mike Flynn's near the end and Chris Chester fits better at guard.
30. San Diego - Eric Weddle
Will make plays all over the field for the Chargers. Wants to play corner and possibly could but is still a great option at safety.
31. Chicago - Joe Staley
He'll likely go much higher than this and really should. If he makes it here, he's a no brainer.
32. Indianapolis - Robert Meachem
Sometimes you draft your strength.
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ConstruxBoy
Kate's Daddy
Tell Scott Wright I like this one.
MarshallRob
Footballguy
Chaos Commish
Footballguy
Quinn will become the Dolphin's franchise QB by sheer force of will even though he is drafted by Cleveland. This may take a few years. A bold projection, indeed.
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Chaos Commish
Footballguy
ConstruxBoy
Kate's Daddy
Tell Scott Wright I like this one.
Boo Construx!
Bets on whether that guy comes in to complain about the Giants pick?
Andy Dufresne
Footballguy
It's a pick and trade, duh.Okay, it's a typo. I originally had him to the Dolphins but the cut and paste job made it past the editor.
Andy Dufresne
Footballguy
Reggie Nelson was plan B.I think Eagles address CB and safety before LB but just my
Andy Dufresne
Footballguy
Like it or not, Petitgout is your squad's LT.
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Capella
Footballguy
I didn't realize you were doing the actual drafting for the Bucs.Petitgout is a 30 year old semi-injured tackle signed somewhat cheap. I can't imagine he being the reason the Bucs would pass on a 10-year starter at the most difficult position to fill.
Aaronstory
Footballguy
Even after all the pushback I and other Packer fans have given you, you are still steadfast in you choice of Lynch in the 1st for the Packers. I either applaud you for your sticktoitivness, or mock you for your inability to adapt when given feedback by more learned (on the Packers, anyway) voices. I can't decide which...
massraider
Footballguy
My god, I hope the Pack fans are right about this one.Even after all the pushback I and other Packer fans have given you, you are still steadfast in you choice of Lynch in the 1st for the Packers. I either applaud you for your sticktoitivness, or mock you for your inability to adapt when given feedback by more learned (on the Packers, anyway) voices. I can't decide which...
Andy Dufresne
Footballguy
My disregard for the opinions of Packers fans probably stems from the fact that I know a lot of them.Even after all the pushback I and other Packer fans have given you, you are still steadfast in you choice of Lynch in the 1st for the Packers. I either applaud you for your sticktoitivness, or mock you for your inability to adapt when given feedback by more learned (on the Packers, anyway) voices. I can't decide which...
Andy Dufresne
Footballguy
If I'm Millen, I take that in a skinny instant. Seems like a lot for the 49ers to give up, though. Those two 2nds are pretty valuable for a team on the rise like SF is.I (dream/wish/hope) Willis, 2.10, 3.12 and 08 2nd would be enough for Detroit.
Andy Dufresne
Footballguy
Just my opinion, dude. I just think Gruden is on a shorter timeline than picking another LT puts him on, especially when that was one of the bigger FA signings he made this offseason.Thomas would be a fine pick, though, if his seat isn't as hot as I perceive it to be. ........Um....you know what I mean. 
ImTheScientist
Footballguy
Vernon Davis and CJ on the same team......that would be fun to watch!I (dream/wish/hope) Willis, 2.10, 3.12 and 08 2nd would be enough for Detroit.
massraider
Footballguy
Yes, Gruden is rather dreamy.
NoFBinLA
Moderator
And with that, this becomes the best. Mock. EVAH!Honestly though I really think they go Peterson. While you can get a servicable back in later rounds, you can't get a premiere back then AND the RB class is questionable in terms of depth.
That said, Quinn to Cleveland wouldn't floor me at all. Hometown boy+ need at POS = not insane.
I think he'll be a Fin, thoguh end of day.
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5Rings
Lurker
Alex Smith needs a supporting case like that if he's going to succeed, IMO. Lelie and Battle just won't cut it.Vernon Davis and CJ on the same team......that would be fun to watch!I (dream/wish/hope) Willis, 2.10, 3.12 and 08 2nd would be enough for Detroit.
Andy Dufresne
Footballguy
Quinn playing for Miami while in Cleveland is better than Culpepper playing for Miami in Miami.And with that, this becomes the best. Mock. EVAH!
Andy Dufresne
Footballguy
Anyone have thoughts on picks 12 and higher?
I'm loving Posluszny to the Bills. Athletically speaking, he might not be the ideal candidate for their needs at linebacker, but the guy is a footballer for sure.
I'm loving Posluszny to the Bills. Athletically speaking, he might not be the ideal candidate for their needs at linebacker, but the guy is a footballer for sure.
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Im starting to wonder about Puz to either BUF or CAR as a consolation prize for missing out on Willis...He's definitely one of the safest guys after the top 7/8
Andy Dufresne
Footballguy
Following Capella's line of thinking...
With those two 2nd rounders, I wonder if TB might consider moving up into the first to get Staley somewhere in the teens/early 20's.
That would be a sharky move.
With those two 2nd rounders, I wonder if TB might consider moving up into the first to get Staley somewhere in the teens/early 20's.
That would be a sharky move.
Sammy3469
Footballguy
Well I've seen a couple of mocks with Beason to CAR, so if they like Posluszny more, I could see it.Oh and FWIW Gaines re-signed today after initially saying he would retire for 1.3 million which would seem to say they may not target Olsen and are probably either looking at the back 7 on defense.
Andy Dufresne
Footballguy
Unless I'm missing something, Gaines seems just a body and offers almost nothing as a reciever going 4/12/15 in catches each of the last three years.
Mr. Brownstone
Footballguy
My head is spinning from all the possibilities.#17- Up until this week, I was sure the Jags wouldn't consider Ginn. I'm not so sure anymore.
I'm starting to side with Cecil on the Olsen debate. He's more athlete than football player - he's gonna fall in my last mock, I just don't how far.
Despyzer
Lousy Attention Whore
No concerns that his poor combine and pro day are fueled by some nasty shin splints in both legs?
NoFBinLA
Moderator
Still working on the second half of the first round myself, BUT --
I think BUFF goes RB. I seem to be almost alone in this, and I happily admit Lynch has tumbled in stock a bit, I still think they look for a franchise RB on day one (or I guess more specifically, round one). I also don't have Willis going to SF - so it wouldn't shock me if Willis was here and they took him instead. So I guess we agree to disagree. I like Willis alot - I just suspect they might jump on Lynch if he's there.
ST Loius - again, here's what happens between different mocks. Not having AD drop to MINN, I have THEM taking Andreson, which creates yet another difference between mocks here. Instead I have them grabbing Adam Carriker, as I have Adams and Anderson already gone. If Anderson drops this far, then yeah he'll go no further.
CAR - I like Olson and he could go here, but again my mock is different and Willis is here - so Carolina would be on him like white on rice. If he's not there,again I think you're dead on. Although they could also go safety if the value is there.
PITT - I have them going with Timmons here as they do have some need in the LB core. But this is one I am really not sure on, and one I plan to be devoting more brain to the next few days. And yet again, I have Brown goign earlier which makes a difference in my rankings.
GB - as I have Lynch going to BUFF, he can't draft here -- although if he did slip, I think this is his basement (notthat it wouldn't be a good fit). I have them grabbing Olsen here, giving Favre another good weapon though the air and finally giving them someone other then Bubba Frank to look at. After Olsen, there's a huge dropoff at the position, so I think they'd jump at the chance to grab him.
Those are just my thoughts. I expect to be completely 180 different by the end of the week on some of these.
I love reading other folks' mocks when I'm doing mine. There's always some insight different than mine that makes me really think twice about a player or see them in a different light.
PS -- this is the irst time I've done extensive rookie brakdowns and tried to figure the draft out. It's a fun challenge - and I have no idea how my lists will turn out compared to reality.
I think BUFF goes RB. I seem to be almost alone in this, and I happily admit Lynch has tumbled in stock a bit, I still think they look for a franchise RB on day one (or I guess more specifically, round one). I also don't have Willis going to SF - so it wouldn't shock me if Willis was here and they took him instead. So I guess we agree to disagree. I like Willis alot - I just suspect they might jump on Lynch if he's there.
ST Loius - again, here's what happens between different mocks. Not having AD drop to MINN, I have THEM taking Andreson, which creates yet another difference between mocks here. Instead I have them grabbing Adam Carriker, as I have Adams and Anderson already gone. If Anderson drops this far, then yeah he'll go no further.
CAR - I like Olson and he could go here, but again my mock is different and Willis is here - so Carolina would be on him like white on rice. If he's not there,again I think you're dead on. Although they could also go safety if the value is there.
PITT - I have them going with Timmons here as they do have some need in the LB core. But this is one I am really not sure on, and one I plan to be devoting more brain to the next few days. And yet again, I have Brown goign earlier which makes a difference in my rankings.
GB - as I have Lynch going to BUFF, he can't draft here -- although if he did slip, I think this is his basement (notthat it wouldn't be a good fit). I have them grabbing Olsen here, giving Favre another good weapon though the air and finally giving them someone other then Bubba Frank to look at. After Olsen, there's a huge dropoff at the position, so I think they'd jump at the chance to grab him.
Those are just my thoughts. I expect to be completely 180 different by the end of the week on some of these.
I love reading other folks' mocks when I'm doing mine. There's always some insight different than mine that makes me really think twice about a player or see them in a different light.
PS -- this is the irst time I've done extensive rookie brakdowns and tried to figure the draft out. It's a fun challenge - and I have no idea how my lists will turn out compared to reality.
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Andy Dufresne
Footballguy
New Orleans, Chicago, and Indy would all be good landing spots.
Donnybrook
Footballguy
Mayock must hate him. He has him ranked as #60 on his top 64 draft prospects - NFL network ticker.
Andy Dufresne
Footballguy
Not really . He's said he played with them his entire four years in Michigan.Plus, I read an interview with him where he said he was sick for two weeks leading up to the combine. I have no idea whether or not that's :whoosh: . But it would explain what seemed to be out of character performances from him.
Sammy3469
Footballguy
Well, the Panthers aren't really in a salary cap position to sign a TE at 1.3 million and not have him start....there's also talk that Jenkins is on his way to the Rams for a 2nd and Klopensteirneitnri which again would seem to put the kibosh on Olsen...I personally wouldn't be stunned to see the Panthers either move up if Landry slides a tad or down. They seem more concerned about getting Peppers and Smith signed and shoring up depth in the draft than getting a difference maker at 14 (with Landry being the only real difference maker for them at the top of the draft).
Chaos Commish
Footballguy
I'm not a big fan either. I have him very late in the first, to a team where his fantasy potential will look very good. New Orleans. It's pencil not ink and I am still working on the top half of the draft.
wadegarrett
FFA Legend™
<_<
Andy Dufresne
Footballguy
There is? That would be a GREAT trade for the Panthers. Klopfenstein was really coming on at the end of the year last year very nicely and would be at least as good an option as Olsen would be as a rookie. Add in another 2nd round pick and that should get a big
from Panthers fans.
at this moment i have him going to indy at 32, but the seven rounder v2 is still in the oven
Sammy3469
Footballguy
Like I said at this point who knows...supposedly Jenkins is gone no matter what...it's just a matter of getting what they want for him. I wouldn't be surprised if they waited until draft day to make the deal to see if one of the teams at the end of the first gets desparate and decides he's a decent deal at 3.5 million this year.
Fallerjw
Footballguy
While it could happen, I don't see the Broncos taking Spencer. He just doesn't seem like a first rounder to me. Blalock to KC seems like a great pick at this point.
I like Meachem to Indy, but if he's gone I think they go D in round one.
I don't think New England goes WR in round 1. They picked up the WRs they're going to use in the offseason.
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Andy Dufresne
Footballguy
Lots of ways the Donkeys could go. Another DE prospect that's a good fit is Charles Johnson. DT's are also needed. Heck the WHOLE defense needs some new talent.
can you flesh this out a little bit?I see Spencer as the #2 pure pass rusher behind Adams and a guy who can have a similar impact to Merriman/Ware/Wimbley in a 3-4 or Hali in 4-3.Fallerjw said:
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Fallerjw
Footballguy
Reading about the Broncos' defense made me think he wouldn't be a good fit. He's not big enough to play end for them, and he's not athletic enough to play OLB. They drafted Elvis Dumerville as a situational pass rusher last year, I don't think they want another one....at least not with their first round pick. I'd say with Wilson leaving they'd rather pick up an ILB (Harris, Willis if he wasn't gone), or a more athletic OLB if they try to move Williams inside.
Andy Dufresne
Footballguy
Good assessment. I originally had Jon Beason going to Denver with the assumption that Williams was moved inside.
