The hype surrounding the Patriots can be tough to listen to every day of the week. Are they going 16-0? Are they the greatest offense of all time? Can anyone stop them? None of the hype really addresses the question of just how the Patriots could beat the Colts or vice versa. It is opinion, which has it's place in a casual conversation. But I thought I might dig inside some of the accomplishments of these teams and compare the 2007 Patriots to the Colts each day this week. We all know they're both very good football teams; you don't even have to be a football fan to figure that out. But how good can they be in a game of evenly matched teams?
The first category I want to look is one of the more difficult measuring sticks, the LONG FIELD. How both teams produce when they start a possession inside their own 20-yard line and have to go more than 80 yards for a touchdown is no doubt going to surface in this game. Most teams can't score at all when given this assignment. In a game of this magnitude, even a field goal could be disastrous. The team that settles for field goals or punts -- or even worse, turns the ball over -- will lose. On average, NFL teams will score a touchdown less than 15 percent of the time when a drive starts 80 or more yards away from the goal line. Last Sunday, in their final tune-ups before this matchup, the Patriots and Colts each had three opportunities to work the long field. The Patriots started series from their own 10, 12, and 15 yard lines and had to go 90, 88 and 85 yards if they wanted a TD. They succeeded 100 percent of the time.
Here's a breakdown:
Drive No. 1: Eight rushes for 45 yards; six passes for 45 yards … No passes to Moss. Brady ran it in for the score.
Drive No. 2: Six rushes for 25 yards; seven passes for 60 yards … No passes to Moss… Brady ran it in for the score.
Drive No. 3: Seven runs for 39 yards; seven passes for 69 yards … two passes to Moss … Brady ran for a first down… Brady 2-yard TD pass to Wes Welker.
Add up the yardage in drive No. 3 and you will see the 14 plays went 108 yards, as New England also overcame 20 yards in penalties. The total play selection for the three drives was 21 run plays and 20 pass plays, so they are fully balanced. Five different wide receivers and two tight ends were at the end of those 20 passes and four different runners contributed on the ground.
The most impressive aspect of the Patriots' long drives all season is the fact that they have had 14 possessions start inside the 20 and they have scored a touchdown 78.5 percent of the time. Keep in mind that the league is averaging about 13 percent in this category. The top teams in the NFL inside the red zone don't score touchdowns at this rate.
So how are the Colts doing in this area?
Last week against the Panthers, Indianapolis started drives on its own 2-, 13-, and 14-yard lines. They scored one touchdown, fumbled after 13 plays on another drive and punted the third time. One out of three (33.3 percent) is still better than the league average but pales in comparison to the Patriots. For the season, Indianapolis has started 12 drives from inside its own 20 and only produced two touchdowns. Their 16 percent success rate is just a hair over the league average. The Colts will have to improve in this area Sunday in the RCA Dome.
What makes the Patriots' ability to go long distance (11 of 14 attempts) even more impressive is how they stack up to the division leaders around the league. The other three AFC leaders are the Colts, Steelers, and Chiefs. Combined, they have gone the long field for a TD in 7 of 54 opportunities. The Patriots have them beat by four touchdowns in 40 less attempts. In the NFC, it is even more impressive. The Cowboys, Packers, Panthers and Seahawks sit atop their respective divisions and they have combined for just 11 touchdowns in 75 trips. New England matched their scores in 61 fewer chances.
The edge in the long field game belongs to New England.
