Anthony Gonzalez - WR, Colts (1 Viewer)

[moleculo]

Haven't seen a thread on AGonzo yet - not since the draft, anyways. Thoughts on AGonz so far? He seems to be flying under the radar. The way I see it, he has the most potential (short term and long term) of any rookie WR outside of Calvin.

Short term:

* He is playing in the slot - a position that Stokley put up 1k yards as recently as 2004.

* outside of Wayne/Harrison, no other colts WR had >8 catches last year - clearly, when compared to 2004 and 2005, the Colts were missing a part of their offense and drafted Gonzalez to make an immediate impact.

* Vs Dallas, while he may not have technically started or caught a pass until the 2nd half, he was on the field for every single offensive play of the first drive - lining up in the slot. I interpret that as meaning the Colts are planning on using him early and he is progressing well in camp.

Long term:

*Marvin Harrison is 35 years old. He will slow down eventually. Maybe not this year, but eventually. By the time Harrison's skills start declining, AGonzo should just be starting to peak. You've gotta think Wayne will become 1A, and then Gonzo will be 1B - this offense thrives with multiple WR threats

* no reason to think that the Colts offensive machine will not be high-powered for years to come. Manning just turned 31; he should have a good 5-6 years left.

Bottom line: as a WR he was a first round pick for a team that thrives on excellent WR's, in a draft year that seems to be comparitavly deep in WR talent. He's getting his shots early, and you couldn't ask for a better situation. If FF production = talent + opprutunity + scheme, AGonzo has the potential to be a rising star.

 

[DropKick]

I never liked you moleculo. Delete this post immediately!

 

[moleculo]

I never liked you moleculo. Delete this post immediately!

nope. I've already had my draft - it's fine w/ me if he starts picking up a little buzz.

 

[David Yudkin]

* He is playing in the slot - a position that Stokley put up 1k yards as recently as 2004.

I won't argue that he makes a great long-term dynasty prospect, but as far as a short-term, redraft investment, here's how IND #3 WR has fared over the years:72, 98, 56, 86, 68, 72, 11, 69, 120Sure, Stokely had one great year in one of the greatest seasons ever by a QB. The rest of the time the Colts #3 WR has been essentially a fantasy after thought. Add in that Gonzalez is a rookie and I'm not so sure I would want to rely on him this year and I would not expect him to do much this time around.

 

[BigRed]

Dave gets it. WR3s on ANY team are almost always at best an afterthought. He has precious little value THIS year. Moving on

 

[David Yudkin]

Dave gets it. WR3s on ANY team are almost always at best an afterthought. He has precious little value THIS year. Moving on

I did the math on this one recently, and IIRC less than 2% of all teams in something like the past 20 years had 3 WRs score 100 fantasy points in a season. I don't remember the exact numbers, but the bottom line was that it didn't happen very often and that it was very difficult to predict when it would happen.

 

[Anthony Borbely]

* He is playing in the slot - a position that Stokley put up 1k yards as recently as 2004.

I won't argue that he makes a great long-term dynasty prospect, but as far as a short-term, redraft investment, here's how IND #3 WR has fared over the years:72, 98, 56, 86, 68, 72, 11, 69, 120Sure, Stokely had one great year in one of the greatest seasons ever by a QB. The rest of the time the Colts #3 WR has been essentially a fantasy after thought. Add in that Gonzalez is a rookie and I'm not so sure I would want to rely on him this year and I would not expect him to do much this time around.

 

[BigRed]

Yeah but really, who needs math? Even my fading memory can recall something as notable as a WR3 having a big or even significant year. Doesn't take long to add them up since there are extremely few. Every time I see someone talking about Gonzo I have to shake my head and wonder why. He's a WR3 people.

 

[Anthony Borbely]

Yeah but really, who needs math? Even my fading memory can recall something as notable as a WR3 having a big or even significant year. Doesn't take long to add them up since there are extremely few. Every time I see someone talking about Gonzo I have to shake my head and wonder why. He's a WR3 people.

I can't believe he is being drafted in 18-20 round redraft leagues. I think that is crazy.

 

[oukurt]

First I read how Brian Leanard is now going to be in a RBBC with S Jackson and the second post I see is how the WR3 on his own team, Gonzalez is flying under the radar.

Time to say bye bye to FBGs today.

 

[moleculo]

* He is playing in the slot - a position that Stokley put up 1k yards as recently as 2004.

I won't argue that he makes a great long-term dynasty prospect, but as far as a short-term, redraft investment, here's how IND #3 WR has fared over the years:72, 98, 56, 86, 68, 72, 11, 69, 120Sure, Stokely had one great year in one of the greatest seasons ever by a QB. The rest of the time the Colts #3 WR has been essentially a fantasy after thought. Add in that Gonzalez is a rookie and I'm not so sure I would want to rely on him this year and I would not expect him to do much this time around.

My thoughts are more geared to Dynasty. I usually don't expect much of rookie WR's - they rarely produce, and so IMO you have to be able to stash them away for a couple of years before you should count on relying on them.I get your points on WR3, but if you have to pick an offense where a WR3 might have a shot, this is the one.I'm not advocating drafting him high, but for a late round flyer, he's got a better shot at production this season than most.

 

[nerangers]

I like his long term prospects...someone showed how the #3 WR has faired for the Colts over the last few years...can we get the numbers for #2 WRs? The point that Harrison is getting older and there could be an opportunity that Gonzalez could be a bonifide #2 on a good passing team in a few years...that is the kind of player you stash away in a dynasty league before he breaks out.

 

[DropKick]

* He is playing in the slot - a position that Stokley put up 1k yards as recently as 2004.

I won't argue that he makes a great long-term dynasty prospect, but as far as a short-term, redraft investment, here's how IND #3 WR has fared over the years:72, 98, 56, 86, 68, 72, 11, 69, 120Sure, Stokely had one great year in one of the greatest seasons ever by a QB. The rest of the time the Colts #3 WR has been essentially a fantasy after thought. Add in that Gonzalez is a rookie and I'm not so sure I would want to rely on him this year and I would not expect him to do much this time around.

My thoughts are more geared to Dynasty. I usually don't expect much of rookie WR's - they rarely produce, and so IMO you have to be able to stash them away for a couple of years before you should count on relying on them.I get your points on WR3, but if you have to pick an offense where a WR3 might have a shot, this is the one.I'm not advocating drafting him high, but for a late round flyer, he's got a better shot at production this season than most.

The post is marked as a dynasty thread. I can't fathom why so many would give it grief. Shun the non-believers!

 

[monkeysee]

* He is playing in the slot - a position that Stokley put up 1k yards as recently as 2004.

I won't argue that he makes a great long-term dynasty prospect, but as far as a short-term, redraft investment, here's how IND #3 WR has fared over the years:72, 98, 56, 86, 68, 72, 11, 69, 120Sure, Stokely had one great year in one of the greatest seasons ever by a QB. The rest of the time the Colts #3 WR has been essentially a fantasy after thought. Add in that Gonzalez is a rookie and I'm not so sure I would want to rely on him this year and I would not expect him to do much this time around.

My thoughts are more geared to Dynasty. I usually don't expect much of rookie WR's - they rarely produce, and so IMO you have to be able to stash them away for a couple of years before you should count on relying on them.I get your points on WR3, but if you have to pick an offense where a WR3 might have a shot, this is the one.I'm not advocating drafting him high, but for a late round flyer, he's got a better shot at production this season than most.

The post is marked as a dynasty thread. I can't fathom why so many would give it grief. Shun the non-believers!

I think it was more of the "flying under radar" comment. If you a dynasty player he isn't flying under any radar.

 

[buckyben]

I agree with the first post of the thread. As mentioned, Marvin is 2 years from being 37. By then, Gonzalez will be starting on the best offense in the NFL and will be a lcok for 1000 yards and 8-10 TDs. And he has a lot of Marvin Harrison to his game. He really does have long term top 10 NFL WR potential. Compared to somebody like Bowe who is stuck in a running offense with Brodie Croyle, he is in an infinitely better long term situation.

As far as this year goes, the fact is if the Colts do go back to the 3 WR system they ran a few years ago, he is going to get 800+ yards and at least 6 TDs. If he is out there every snap like he was on the first drive, he is going to be open a LOT. If the Colts start playing 3 WR instead of 2 TEs, then you can throw all of your past year stats out the window. And they wouldn't have used a 1st round pick on the guy with all the needs they had on defense if they were not going to use him.

Also, the one thing that I have heard during training camp is that Peyton absolutely loves him. Gonzalez is a genius (Rhodes Scholarship candidate) and studies football constantly. Is it any surprise that him and Peyton are already forming a real bond?

Peyton will find the open guy and I have a suspicion that Gonzalez' speed and smarts will let him get open a TON with Marvin and Reggie getting so much of the D's attention. Gonzo will always find the soft spot in the zone, always hold on to the ball and always run the right route.

 

[ConstruxBoy]

Strange though that in both Survivor leagues I've taken him, someone immediately said they were upset because I took him when they were going to. I think he does really well this year. Not the 120 points Stokely had that year, but 95-105 is possible. And in the playoff included leagues, like Anarchy, he has even more value as the Colts are very likely to make the playoffs and be facing teams in the playoffs that shut down Harrison and Wayne better than the average regular season team they face.

 

[Bri]

Dave gets it. WR3s on ANY team are almost always at best an afterthought. He has precious little value THIS year. Moving on

I did the math on this one recently, and IIRC less than 2% of all teams in something like the past 20 years had 3 WRs score 100 fantasy points in a season. I don't remember the exact numbers, but the bottom line was that it didn't happen very often and that it was very difficult to predict when it would happen.

I think some are figuring him as a handcuff. Not looking for a great season but a great short term replacement due to injury. I don't think Marvin and Wayne have led us to believe they're injury prone but....just sayin'. As drafts wind down and people take way too many backup RBs that won't do squat, I think it's a better pick than some of them or maybe not better but just in line with that.His ADP is far too high right now.

 

[Bri]

Peyton will find the open guy and I have a suspicion that Gonzalez' speed and smarts will let him get open a TON with Marvin and Reggie getting so much of the D's attention. Gonzo will always find the soft spot in the zone, always hold on to the ball and always run the right route.

Rookies often struggle in the slot as they adjust to the speed of the NFL game and misjudge their cushion/soft spot to be more than it really is. Note lack of success of rookie TEs, not just WRs, too. He sure could bolt across the field from the slot but there's little "finding a soft spot in the zone" in that type route

 

[Construction Man Jim]

The most significant thing I noticed watching the first pre-season game was how much time he got with the ones and how many 3 WR sets the Colts ran. It would appear the Colts intend to use him in the Stokely role from day one. If that's the case this guy will definitely be fantasy relevant.

 

[moleculo]

Dave gets it. WR3s on ANY team are almost always at best an afterthought. He has precious little value THIS year. Moving on

I did the math on this one recently, and IIRC less than 2% of all teams in something like the past 20 years had 3 WRs score 100 fantasy points in a season. I don't remember the exact numbers, but the bottom line was that it didn't happen very often and that it was very difficult to predict when it would happen.

I think some are figuring him as a handcuff. Not looking for a great season but a great short term replacement due to injury. I don't think Marvin and Wayne have led us to believe they're injury prone but....just sayin'. As drafts wind down and people take way too many backup RBs that won't do squat, I think it's a better pick than some of them or maybe not better but just in line with that.His ADP is far too high right now.

where do you think he should be drafted? Per antsports, he's going about WR49, which is WR4 for someone in a 12 man league. I agree - that's probably too high. He is going before guys like Mason and Kinneson, but I'm not sure I like many guys after him more.Actually, he is the highest drafted rook WR outside of Calvin.

 

[Anthony Borbely]

The most significant thing I noticed watching the first pre-season game was how much time he got with the ones and how many 3 WR sets the Colts ran. It would appear the Colts intend to use him in the Stokely role from day one. If that's the case this guy will definitely be fantasy relevant.

The only reason anyone talks about the #3 WR on the Colts is because of Stokley having one big year when Manning went crazy setting records. Take that year away and it is just another WR3 situation that will not have a whole lot of fantasy relevance, especially for a rookie. I think Gonzalez is among the most overvalued players in redraft leagues right now.

 

[Bri]

Dave gets it. WR3s on ANY team are almost always at best an afterthought. He has precious little value THIS year. Moving on

I did the math on this one recently, and IIRC less than 2% of all teams in something like the past 20 years had 3 WRs score 100 fantasy points in a season. I don't remember the exact numbers, but the bottom line was that it didn't happen very often and that it was very difficult to predict when it would happen.

I think some are figuring him as a handcuff. Not looking for a great season but a great short term replacement due to injury. I don't think Marvin and Wayne have led us to believe they're injury prone but....just sayin'. As drafts wind down and people take way too many backup RBs that won't do squat, I think it's a better pick than some of them or maybe not better but just in line with that.His ADP is far too high right now.

where do you think he should be drafted? Per antsports, he's going about WR49, which is WR4 for someone in a 12 man league. I agree - that's probably too high. He is going before guys like Mason and Kinneson, but I'm not sure I like many guys after him more.Actually, he is the highest drafted rook WR outside of Calvin.

WR49 ...I don't use those type rankings but as an end result, not to form an opinion. He's depth for your team so a good case could probably be made for 32*2 64 other WRs over him, then again I'm not sure I want all 64 on my FF team. Sooo WR# doesn't work well for me.Anyhow, he should be depth and not relied upon depth either. Ya got your 3 WRs and a backup or two, then he can come into the picture IMO. If he's your 4th WR I don't know if he's gonna be a good bye week cover esp if Addai can run well on the opposing D. There just won't be a pressing need for the Colts to use him and it'll be easier to work Clark alot those days IMO.I won't draft him because I won't waive him. My depth, outside of a key backup, I have to be cool with cutting for a WW pickup, always looking for the next big thing etc. He'll just eat up a spot in a "what if" sorta way all season so I won't take him.

 

[Chase Stuart]

I agree with the first post of the thread. As mentioned, Marvin is 2 years from being 37. By then, Gonzalez will be starting on the best offense in the NFL

The Colts won't have the best offense in the NFL if Marvin Harrison isn't playing.

 

[Da Guru]

I agree with the first post of the thread. As mentioned, Marvin is 2 years from being 37. By then, Gonzalez will be starting on the best offense in the NFL

The Colts won't have the best offense in the NFL if Marvin Harrison isn't playing.

That may be true, but he will still have the best QB in the NFL throwing to him.

 

[JohnnyU]

AG is better than Bowe and Meachem. There, I feel better now.

 

[Canadian Law]

The most significant thing I noticed watching the first pre-season game was how much time he got with the ones and how many 3 WR sets the Colts ran. It would appear the Colts intend to use him in the Stokely role from day one. If that's the case this guy will definitely be fantasy relevant.

The only reason anyone talks about the #3 WR on the Colts is because of Stokley having one big year when Manning went crazy setting records. Take that year away and it is just another WR3 situation that will not have a whole lot of fantasy relevance, especially for a rookie. I think Gonzalez is among the most overvalued players in redraft leagues right now.

 

[Txns8]

I agree with the first post of the thread. As mentioned, Marvin is 2 years from being 37. By then, Gonzalez will be starting on the best offense in the NFL

The Colts won't have the best offense in the NFL if Peyton Manning isn't playing.

fixed