BigSteelThrill
Footballguy
I see almost everyone willing/wanting to trade down, but does anyone want to pay the price to move up into those top 15 or so picks?
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Any fans want their team to trade up? (in top-half of Rd1.) (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter BigSteelThrill
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MAC_32
Footballguy
they shouldn't
BigSteelThrill
Footballguy
bigmarc27
Footballguy
Popular theory around town is that Houston wants what you just posted but that they've overplayed their hand because everyone believes they want a QB. The sticking point seems to be the 2nd rounder this year and that the closer we get to draft time, the more leverage Houston loses. Essentially, it doesn't look like anyone wants to move up, so Houston is unlikely to get more than the 6th pick and a future 1st from ATL.
I've also heard the scenario where Houston takes Clowney and if there top QB choice makes it to #6, then the trade happens. Who knows though, I'm just ready for Thursday.
Borden
Footballguy
Top 7-15 (depending on how many spots are moved up) seem to cost a first, a second and maybe a late round pick or pick swap.
I think that it likely that someone moves up. As a Bills fan I'd prefer to see them move down again since they seem to have hit at least a double with Alonso last year. Plus, I think there is a lot of talent in those mid first prospects.
Possible trading partners for the Bills:
Dallas - they need some defensive pieces that might not make it to them at 16. Also, Jerry Jones.
Pitt - same as Dallas. They might fall in love with Barr or Pryor and think that they need to trade up.
AZ - at 20 if Bortles, Manziel or Bridgewater fall but the other 2 are gone, they may try to slide up in front of Tenn to grab the last one.
At minimum, a weak case could be made for every team from 12-20 to trade up to #9. There's still high end talent without having to mortgage their future to get their guy.
I think that it likely that someone moves up. As a Bills fan I'd prefer to see them move down again since they seem to have hit at least a double with Alonso last year. Plus, I think there is a lot of talent in those mid first prospects.
Possible trading partners for the Bills:
Dallas - they need some defensive pieces that might not make it to them at 16. Also, Jerry Jones.
Pitt - same as Dallas. They might fall in love with Barr or Pryor and think that they need to trade up.
AZ - at 20 if Bortles, Manziel or Bridgewater fall but the other 2 are gone, they may try to slide up in front of Tenn to grab the last one.
At minimum, a weak case could be made for every team from 12-20 to trade up to #9. There's still high end talent without having to mortgage their future to get their guy.
flysack
Footballguy
As a Bills fan I'm tempted to say, 'trade up, get Clowney, let that D-line power you to the playoffs the way the Giants D-line powered them to 2 recent SB wins.' But that's crazy.
I'm hoping they sit tight and one of those two elite WRs falls to them. If they have to trade up a couple spots, fine, as long as they don't spend next year's first round pick on it. The last time they did that they traded their first for ROB JOHNSON, and the Jags used the pick (if I recall correctly) on Fred Taylor.
I'm hoping they sit tight and one of those two elite WRs falls to them. If they have to trade up a couple spots, fine, as long as they don't spend next year's first round pick on it. The last time they did that they traded their first for ROB JOHNSON, and the Jags used the pick (if I recall correctly) on Fred Taylor.
jurb26
Footballguy
Cinci seems like a team that could move up for a top CB to me.
coolnerd
Footballguy
bigmarc27
Footballguy
I'd love to see this as a Falcons fan... I think he'll be really good, I just think Manziel, Brees, Cam, Ryan would make for a really entertaining NFC South.
QuizGuy66
Footballguy
We haven't moved up in almost 20 years. We seldom trade down as well. Team philosophy is to let the board come to them.
-QG
duaneok66
Footballguy
agree with this philosophy. There are special cases obviously, but in general, moving up is overrated.
Borden
Footballguy
As a Bills fan I can't say much but Cincy hasn't done much in the last 20 years so is that philosophy really that good? A couple first round outs lately and a couple good years with Palmer.
Again, not trying to attack your team just an honest question.
jurb26
Footballguy
The Bengals haven't really been on the cusp of something very good in 20 years, either. Things change. Cinci has a very strong roster and could feel they are a player or 2 from making a Title push. If so, I see them as being willing to move up.
bostonfred
Footballguy
Bengals have had a lot of early picks during those years. Hard to move up from number one.
ghostguy123
Footballguy
It seems fans of teams in the mid-late teens or even twenties never want to move up and have to give up other picks or future picks, and it seems fans of teams in the top 5 or so never want to move down for that exact same compensation that the other fans don't want to give, while screaming "we need an elite prospect!!!!".
Then the very next year the teams could be flipflopped and the same fans that didn't wanna trade up now don't want to trade down, and vice versa.
People seem to never want to do a deal unless it is a no brainer or a total steal.
Then the very next year the teams could be flipflopped and the same fans that didn't wanna trade up now don't want to trade down, and vice versa.
People seem to never want to do a deal unless it is a no brainer or a total steal.
bigmarc27
Footballguy
ghostguy123
Footballguy
Yeah, I meant to type that actually.
As a browns fan we are in a unique position having picks 4 and 26. Most browns fans absolutely do not want to trade down from 4, and don't want to trade up from 26 or 35 either.
I would be fine doing both. Would be nice to move back to maybe 10 and get a 2015 1st, and I would be good using one or our 3rds to move up from 26 if a guy is sliding. Some of the guys I would be good dealing both 26 and 35 to get up high enough for one of them if they slip a little.
Dippa
Footballguy
Good post. The 2nd rounder definitely seems to be what most are hesitant to give up, myself included. IMO, pick #37 in a deep draft like this is almost as valuable as a 1st after a good year, and the Falcons have holes to fill. I personally would not be happy losing the 2nd and a 1st next year, but I would love to have Clowney.
I also don't think the cost would be quite that high. Clowney is a rare prospect, but he's not an elite QB prospect. Jeff Fisher already admitted that there wouldn't be any RGIII-like compensation for trading back in this draft. For the right price, I'm all for moving up.
Sabertooth
Footballguy
I'd love for Green Bay to jump up to get a safety. All the good defenses have very good safeties.
Hot Diggity Dog
Footballguy
Would like to see Denver move up to take Mack. Cost to move from 31 to 4? They don't have good enough draft spots to do it without adding players. Would a whole draft do it?
QuizGuy66
Footballguy
Bengals don't make many trades in any round. They have drafted very well in recent years without feeling the neef to move.
It's not terribly exciting but it is what it is.
As for having the number one in the post Ki-Jana trade era I am pretty sure it's only happened twice - Big Daddy and Carson Quitter
The thing about letting the board come to youand sticking to your values is that you almost universally do better (in your mind) since every team has a different board. As I understand it the Bengals stayed put last year and got 3 players that were in their top 21 (Eifert Gio and Hunt). You may disagree with that evaluation but there's many a team that would not maintain that discipline to get those guys in those spots - in most instances they would have moved up at some point and probably landed only 2 or even just 1.
-QG
It's not terribly exciting but it is what it is.
As for having the number one in the post Ki-Jana trade era I am pretty sure it's only happened twice - Big Daddy and Carson Quitter
The thing about letting the board come to youand sticking to your values is that you almost universally do better (in your mind) since every team has a different board. As I understand it the Bengals stayed put last year and got 3 players that were in their top 21 (Eifert Gio and Hunt). You may disagree with that evaluation but there's many a team that would not maintain that discipline to get those guys in those spots - in most instances they would have moved up at some point and probably landed only 2 or even just 1.
-QG
ImTheScientist
Footballguy
This draft is deep... Especially at the positions my team is looking to draft. So nope, stay put please.
jurb26
Footballguy
That's fine and all but sometimes a player you have in your top 5 or top 10 is around at 15 or 20 so you make a move to get him if you think he can be a game changer. That's still getting value, just in a different way.Bengals don't make many trades in any round. They have drafted very well in recent years without feeling the neef to move.
It's not terribly exciting but it is what it is.
As for having the number one in the post Ki-Jana trade era I am pretty sure it's only happened twice - Big Daddy and Carson Quitter
The thing about letting the board come to youand sticking to your values is that you almost universally do better (in your mind) since every team has a different board. As I understand it the Bengals stayed put last year and got 3 players that were in their top 21 (Eifert Gio and Hunt). You may disagree with that evaluation but there's many a team that would not maintain that discipline to get those guys in those spots - in most instances they would have moved up at some point and probably landed only 2 or even just 1.
-QG
I think the last time they used a future 1st during the draft it was to get JP. That said, I'll be happy if they just get one of Robinson, Matthews or Lewan and keep EJ upright and healthy while he develops. Plus nothing helps a young QB like a strong run game!
AngryPatriot
Footballguy
I don't know if they'd have to do it for a good TE but would love to see them reach for one of the top 3 WR's...
BigSteelThrill
Footballguy
Too big of a jump for a team that would be drafting at the very end of each round.
1st + 2nd + 3rd.
1st + 2nd next year.
5 players for 1. Even then, it may cost you a bit more.
ZWK
Footballguy
I love Aaron Donald, and would be happy to see the Bears move up a few spots to snag him (as long as the price is reasonable).
The last time that I was hoping they'd move up in the first half-round was to get Ryan Clady at pick 11. They stayed put and took the next OT, which did not go so well for them.
The last time that I was hoping they'd move up in the first half-round was to get Ryan Clady at pick 11. They stayed put and took the next OT, which did not go so well for them.
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
49ers - for the right price Gilbert or a lesser price Dennard.
Enough WRs in this draft to fill that need without moving around.
Enough WRs in this draft to fill that need without moving around.
duaneok66
Footballguy
Sabertooth
Footballguy
I'd like to see Green Bay jump up and get Calvin Pryor.
Deranged Hermit
Not cool & Pissed
Holy Schneikes
Footballguy
I don't generally fall into the "real GMs don't know any more than we do" camp, but I think moving up in the draft is one of those areas where a lot of us fake GMs handle it better than the reals ones.
In general, with the way way trade compensation is typically handled, in almost no case does it make sense to move up in the NFL draft. Sure, maybe a couple of slots in the middle of the first to get a guy you really like, but nothing more. It's just too expensive, and now with the set rookie pay scale, picks are too valuable. But most real GMs are heavily incentivized for current year production, or even just current year excitement. Their "safe" windows are very short, unless they've got a couple on rings in their back pocket.
No matter how sure you are about a guy the odds are just heavily against some of the 1st round deals panning out well for the team moving up at the prices they pay. Half the time, teams move up to get a sure thing and end up getting a worse player than the guy taken at their old slot and are out a couple of other premium picks as well.
I am cherry picking here. but here's an example. Most folks were OK with the RGIII deal after one year, because he looked so good. But do you know what the Skins could have had with what they gave up?
Mark Barron, Janoris Jenkins, Eric Reid, and now Clowney/Mack/whatever QB this year (though the pick probably wouldn't be the good because they would have had a better team last year). All of those guys on dirt cheap contracts too. Crazy.
In general, with the way way trade compensation is typically handled, in almost no case does it make sense to move up in the NFL draft. Sure, maybe a couple of slots in the middle of the first to get a guy you really like, but nothing more. It's just too expensive, and now with the set rookie pay scale, picks are too valuable. But most real GMs are heavily incentivized for current year production, or even just current year excitement. Their "safe" windows are very short, unless they've got a couple on rings in their back pocket.
No matter how sure you are about a guy the odds are just heavily against some of the 1st round deals panning out well for the team moving up at the prices they pay. Half the time, teams move up to get a sure thing and end up getting a worse player than the guy taken at their old slot and are out a couple of other premium picks as well.
I am cherry picking here. but here's an example. Most folks were OK with the RGIII deal after one year, because he looked so good. But do you know what the Skins could have had with what they gave up?
Mark Barron, Janoris Jenkins, Eric Reid, and now Clowney/Mack/whatever QB this year (though the pick probably wouldn't be the good because they would have had a better team last year). All of those guys on dirt cheap contracts too. Crazy.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
In the BB era, NE has drafted 12 WR (including 4 in the 2nd round and 2 in the 3rd round). Collectively they have played 33 seasons in NE (not counting whatever they did on other teams which wasn't great production either). Last year, Edelman posted the first 1,000 yard season of any WR that was drafted under BB's administration. The Pats may be a lot of things, but evaluation and drafting WRs is not their strong suit.
SaintsInDome2006
Footballguy
The more and more it seems if any team with an incentive to move up to No. 1 it might be Cleveland.
ATL & JAX are both making noises they could select Watkins, and Falcs might move up to get Clowney which would put 1.1 out of reach.
ATL & JAX are both making noises they could select Watkins, and Falcs might move up to get Clowney which would put 1.1 out of reach.
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