anybody else real nervous about LJ? (1 Viewer)

[Biabreakable]

It is an opinion of mine that he will get hurt due to the amount of carries he had last year and due to past examples to rb's in the NFL I think my arguement has very good basis.

and here it is again for those that missed it

Here are the #'s for Eddie George, Jamal Anderson and Eric Dickerson (in that order)+--------------------------+-------------------------+| Rushing | Receiving |+----------+-----+--------------------------+-------------------------+| Year TM | G | Att Yards Y/A TD | Rec Yards Y/R TD |+----------+-----+--------------------------+-------------------------+| 2000 ten | 16 | 403 1509 3.7 14 | 50 453 9.1 2 || 2001 ten | 16 | 315 939 3.0 5 | 37 279 7.5 0 || 1998 atl | 16 | 410 1846 4.5 14 | 27 319 11.8 2 || 1999 atl | 2 | 19 59 3.1 0 | 2 34 17.0 0 || 1986 ram | 16 | 404 1821 4.5 11 | 26 205 7.9 0 || 1987 ind | 9 | 223 1011 4.5 5 | 13 133 10.2 0 || 1987 ram | 3 | 60 277 4.6 1 | 5 38 7.6 0 |

Jamal suffered a freak injuryDickerson's YPC did not drop, and his rushing YPG dropped a whopping 6 yards while being traded mid-season

Those are indeed poor examples to use for comparison.Eddie George (and I am one of his biggest fans) was never a high yard/carry Rb. His game is not very similar to LJ at all. He also was older than LJ at the time of his decline and had multiple high carry seasons that lead up to it.As joffer allready said Jamal Anderson was injured.Dickerson.. perhaps a player closer to LJ's skill set than the other 2 here although I think Dickerson was better. He did not really have a decline due to high carries in the year as suggested.Ricky Williams is a player closer to possible scenario for comparison as I listed above.Terrell Davis may be a closer compare also. But injury is what stopped him.

 

[The Man With No Name]

Not nervous at all. I'll be happy if he's top 5, no reason to expect worse. I do hope he's 1st or 2nd though.

Every running back has a chance to get injured, not just the ones with high touches.

 

[Family Matters]

I don't think it is going out on a limb saying a guys will have a better chance at getting injured if he has 800 752 carries in 2 years which is what you guys are implying.

how better of a chance? 2% instead of 1%? you can't predict injuries.

So if you expecting him to only get 336 carries this year and still put up similiar #'s? You expecting him to lose almost 20% of those carries therefore you should at minimum expect 20% less production from his preformance last year. And your right I can't predict an injury anymore than you can project a guys' total #'s at the end of the year before we even know who's going to be that team's starting qb but you can take a educated guess off of past preformances, right?

This may be the worst comment you've made so far. Projections are as you say based in large part on what's happened by that player in the past. And yet you contradict yourself by saying you can somehow "predict an injury" on what has never happened to him.

but it has happened to people in his situation, hasn't it? How can you project his #'s if he is in a different situation with his new qb and oline? You can't but you can take an educated guess due to past situations. Why would you think you can predict his #'s. It's not a bad arguement you just don't want to hear it. It is an opinion of mine that he will get hurt due to the amount of carries he had last year and due to past examples to rb's in the NFL I think my arguement has very good basis. If you disagree your more than welcome to but don't be surprised when I'm right.

Just a ? to ask everyone that is disagreeing with me. How many of you are LJ owners or Cheifs fans'?

Did you know that Huard started 10 games last year? We're not talking a new QB here my friend. Exactly how many new linemen do you think KC is going to start? This is another reason your opinion doesn't do much for me. As for your opinion, has it ever happened before? Has a player ever been injured after a completely healthy start to his career? Sure. There have also been 2000 yard rushing seasons but you won't find anyone making that prediction or projection unkess they want to be considered an over zealous poster. And I think that's where we are getting with you. The more you post this non sense, the more you try to defend your thinking, the more we all realize that you're stuck on a thought that just doesn't make any sense. Sure he can become injured but then so can anyone else. So why don't you just make injury predictions for everyone and then when a few get injured you can say "see I told ya so"! "I told you someone would get injured"! Teams move players every year. KC is no different. Guys retire. Guys get let go. They have this thing called a draft and they get new players form this draft and from a thing called free agency. Evry team has new starters. Why do you think onlky LJ will be adverly affected? Do you seriously think he'll become injured because of new players? Is that the new theory to support prediction?

I guess the last part is do you think that LJ owners only make projections of their owned players? How do you think guys get to the point to know to draft guys like LJ, LT and so on? Because we make projections about them based on what they've done, not on what other players have done. I know this may seem starnge to you but when I make projections for a player, I don't consider what any other player has done. Believe it or not, other players at their positions have absoluely nothing to do with what a given player will do. Think about that for a minute. For example, what Faulk, Dickerson, Edge or LT did does not factor into my projections for LJ. Their past yards, reception and yes even injuries have no bearing on my projections for LJ or any other that I own or don't own. I also think that if you ask the experts here and at other professional sites they will tell you the same. There a few that "predict" injuries but most do not. They know they can't.

 

[Ned]

I don't think it is going out on a limb saying a guys will have a better chance at getting injured if he has 800 carries in 2 years which is what you guys are implying. You can learn alot from the past.

Even if healthy for the whole year I still don't see him in the top 6 and that is if he is completely healthy for the whole year and gets all his touches (which I don't see happening for no paticular reason I guess.)

I don't think it is going out on a limb saying a guys will have a better chance at getting injured if he has 800 752 carries in 2 years which is what you guys are implying.

how better of a chance? 2% instead of 1%? you can't predict injuries.

So if you expecting him to only get 336 carries this year and still put up similiar #'s? You expecting him to lose almost 20% of those carries therefore you should at minimum expect 20% less production from his preformance last year. And your right I can't predict an injury anymore than you can project a guys' total #'s at the end of the year before we even know who's going to be that team's starting qb but you can take a educated guess off of past preformances, right?

This may be the worst comment you've made so far. Projections are as you say based in large part on what's happened by that player in the past. And yet you contradict yourself by saying you can somehow "predict an injury" on what has never happened to him.

but it has happened to people in his situation, hasn't it? How can you project his #'s if he is in a different situation with his new qb and oline? You can't but you can take an educated guess due to past situations. Why would you think you can predict his #'s. It's not a bad arguement you just don't want to hear it. It is an opinion of mine that he will get hurt due to the amount of carries he had last year and due to past examples to rb's in the NFL I think my arguement has very good basis. If you disagree your more than welcome to but don't be surprised when I'm right.

Just a ? to ask everyone that is disagreeing with me. How many of you are LJ owners or Cheifs fans'?

so say he gets a high ankle sprain in week 6. are you gonna sit here and tell everyone that this was because of his heavy workload? there's no way you're gonna be able to prove that whatever injury you predict he's gonna have is because of his workload. this stuff never gets old.someone else brought it up - remember lt's 100 rec year and everyone was doom and gloom about his workload? how'd that work out?

lj's situation is a unique one. none of the previous 400+ touch players had (basically) the first few seasons on the bench. he's relatively in his 3rd year of full time duty (even that is a stretch since 2005 was 9 games). i've seen him make something out of nothing enough times to not worry about him falling out of the top 5 rbs.

 

[Blackjacks]

Good post FM and all I will say to it is I don't usually make "predictions" for an injury and I haven't made them for another player this year. So I won't be one of those guys who sees an injury and said I called it. LJ is the only one on the list for me. The way I see it I'm not really predicting an injury I'm going off past occurenses. I know you can't say that this guy did this so this guy will now do this in the NFl but when you look at the top rushing attempts in a season and you look at the individuals and then their next season and your batting about .800, well I wouldn't want the next guy on that list. Maybe instead of a fact I should call it a good probability. As for the teams' replacements I'm very aware of the draft and I'm very aware that they didn't draft an olineman until the 6th round. By your thinking he will just come in and fill in for future hall of famer Will Shields, right? Their team has been downgraded and that's my only point.

Think about it this way FM. If a batter in baseball is batting .333 he is considered a pretty good hitter, right? Now does that guarantee that he is oging to get a hit every 1 out of 3 times.....of course not. That is speaking of his past history and gives you a level of expectation. This is where I'm coming from with my proposal. When a avg. is that high (75%) I'm going with the % and if I'm wrong I'm wrong and I miss out with a great player but again I'll take my chances.

 

[Family Matters]

Good post FM and all I will say to it is I don't usually make "predictions" for an injury and I haven't made them for another player this year. So I won't be one of those guys who sees an injury and said I called it. LJ is the only one on the list for me. The way I see it I'm not really predicting an injury I'm going off past occurenses. I know you can't say that this guy did this so this guy will now do this in the NFl but when you look at the top rushing attempts in a season and you look at the individuals and then their next season and your batting about .800, well I wouldn't want the next guy on that list. Maybe instead of a fact I should call it a good probability. As for the teams' replacements I'm very aware of the draft and I'm very aware that they didn't draft an olineman until the 6th round. By your thinking he will just come in and fill in for future hall of famer Will Shields, right? Their team has been downgraded and that's my only point. Think about it this way FM. If a batter in baseball is batting .333 he is considered a pretty good hitter, right? Now does that guarantee that he is oging to get a hit every 1 out of 3 times.....of course not. That is speaking of his past history and gives you a level of expectation. This is where I'm coming from with my proposal. When a avg. is that high (75%) I'm going with the % and if I'm wrong I'm wrong and I miss out with a great player but again I'll take my chances.

I understand how you see this and there is reason to stop and think about it. You won't be the only one to see it this way. Keep in mind that KC has historically had solid Olines. They have a great track record of finding good guys and of having one of the best rushing offenses in the NFL. I'm going with that percentage. But I understand where you're coming from.

 

[Futeki]

Good post FM and all I will say to it is I don't usually make "predictions" for an injury and I haven't made them for another player this year. So I won't be one of those guys who sees an injury and said I called it. LJ is the only one on the list for me. The way I see it I'm not really predicting an injury I'm going off past occurenses. I know you can't say that this guy did this so this guy will now do this in the NFl but when you look at the top rushing attempts in a season and you look at the individuals and then their next season and your batting about .800, well I wouldn't want the next guy on that list. Maybe instead of a fact I should call it a good probability. As for the teams' replacements I'm very aware of the draft and I'm very aware that they didn't draft an olineman until the 6th round. By your thinking he will just come in and fill in for future hall of famer Will Shields, right? Their team has been downgraded and that's my only point. Think about it this way FM. If a batter in baseball is batting .333 he is considered a pretty good hitter, right? Now does that guarantee that he is oging to get a hit every 1 out of 3 times.....of course not. That is speaking of his past history and gives you a level of expectation. This is where I'm coming from with my proposal. When a avg. is that high (75%) I'm going with the % and if I'm wrong I'm wrong and I miss out with a great player but again I'll take my chances.

The Chiefs have been planning for Will's retirement for some time. Enter John Welbourn.----Q: How might [the retirement of Will Shields] affect next week’s draft?PETERSON: “We have already made preparations for this by acquiring some talented veterans as well as younger offensive linemen. But I would say that without question nobody is going to fill those shoes; nobody is going to be quite as good as Will Shields. That would be difficult to do, but we’ve made preparations there.Q: Is John Welbourn one of those guys for that job?PETERSON: “John Welbourn will be a very, very strong candidate for that job namely because when I made the trade for him a few years ago during the draft that was his position. I think he came in and thought maybe at that time that Will was going to retire. Three years later he hadn’t. He is probably the first guy to get the opportunity but I’ll leave that up to Herm (Edwards) and Mike (Solari).”