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Anyone else concerned about Tomlinson breaking dow (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter DeepOut
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Banger
Footballguy
No. Tomlinson is not a normal RB and will be one of the best to ever play when he is done. LT has an amazing elusiveness which allows him to get as many carries as he does and stay healthy. If you watch him play it seems like he can go games without getting a big hit, whereas some guys like Ricky Williams would get levelled several times a game. Anyone getting the ball that many times is a risk but with him the risk is worth it. By the way, the reason for the reduced YPC last year was that he had a groin injury and was running about 50%.
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Banger
Footballguy
It's true, I remember the same post last year. I guess at some point someone will be right but injuries happen especially the RB position. And I've never heard of a groin injury being an early warning system for anything. It is what it is, an injury. The most important thing was he was able to play through it, not miss any games and set an NFL record for consecutive TD's. I'll take that broken down RB any day.
Bottom line is that everybody has a diffferent durability and different tolerance for pain. Most of the other backs on your list that have a high amount of touches are pretty much straight ahead runners. Tomlinson gets quite a few outside rushes and catches more balls than any of these guys either. That fact means he is getting out of bounds more or getting tackled by a cornerback and won't take the pouding of in inside runner.
zamboni
Footballguy
When I think of LT, I think of Emmitt in terms of the ability to maintain an exorbitant amount of touches for a sustained stretch. Curtis, too.But as mentioned, unlike Emmitt, LT doesn't ram into defenders, so that can help his longevity. Obviously, no one can predict injuries, but LT just seems to have that special quality that few have ever had.
Banger
Footballguy
He's a Barry Sanders type runner and seems to be a step ahead of everyone on the field. My guess is that you are looking at stats and really haven't watched him play game after game. If you have then you would see that he is the best pure RB in the league and has skills that other backs don't possess. His cut back ability is amazing and when defenders come straight at him he fakes/spins/cuts and leaves them standing there as he moves onto the next defender. Can he get hurt? Sure, so can any back but I wouldn't pass him by in the draft because he gets the ball a lot, isn't that what you want from you fantasy RB?
Why do you think he will break down? what is your opinion, evidence (besides just looking at touches and making a blanket generalization)?
I don't doubt that his use as a receiver in the SD offense is different that a J. Lewisd and more like Faulk, but even he finally lost that 1/2 step of quickness and started to get caught. I have to believe that the cumulative pounding had alot to do with it because he was not that old when his breakdon started. Tomlinson has been almost universally projected as the #1 back this year but his projected fantasy points are not that much better than some others and Holmes would probably be going before him but for the injury concern. You could say that Holmes injury from last year, an MCL strain not requiring surgery, was just an injury, like a groin pull, but everyone is downgrading him because of this and his injury the year before, also "just" an injury. But each 'injury' starts to eat into production to the point that he becomes just another back. My point is that there seems to be a close correlation to thes disruptive injuries and the amount of carries, which is why coaches track them so closely, kind of like the number of pitches a pitcher throwns in baseball. With Tomlinson having more than 200 touches more than any other back over the last 4 yearshe seems to be a much greater injury risk that is being discussed.
Chessmaster
Footballguy
It's possible. Few of us can state that we have seen the breakdowns for every NFL runner coming. Tomlinson is the concensus #1 back this year more because of attrition among the other candidates than anything, I think: Holmes is old, Alexander and his contract status, etc.Watch the preseason games very closely if you have Tomlinson, because that is where his main backup will be determined. My hunch is that mini-me (Darren Sproles) will be the guy you want to handcuff with LT this season, not Chatman.
huge differences between those two:1) Holmes has a history of knee problems. LT does not have a history of groin problems.
2) LT played through the injury and was productive while doing it. LT also got back to 100% during the season despite playing through the injury, which shows a lot about his durability - the ability to be productive through an injury and have it heal while you play is rare. Holmes missed the remainder of the season and did not have surgery to fix the injury - this combined with the knee problem history makes holmes' injury issue much more of a risk than LTs. If LT tweaks his groin again, you know what youve got, a slight drop in production while he plays through it. If Holmes tweaks the knee again, at best you probably get the 8 weeks he misses from straining that MCL two previous times in his career. at worst, you get season ending surgery. Im guessing that priest did not have surgery because his knees are close to the point marshall faulk's are at - not able to handle too many more surgeries, to be honest i would have felt better if he DID have surgery instead of not having it.
Banger
Footballguy
Preist is in the twilight of his career whereas LT is just reaching his prime. The same argument could have been used to Emmit years ago but then you would have missed out on some awesome fantasy years. At the end of the day, it's all about risk. All the top backs get a lot of carries and all carry some degree of risk. I don't believe that LT has missed a game his entire career due to injury, he has already broken a number of NFL records and is well on his way to break many more. Your point is taken that more carries = more risk but what are you supposed to do with that info? Not draft him? Well then who do you take? Alexander/contract situation, Priest/injury, McAllister/injury/not as good, Macgahee/injury history, etc. LT is still the surest thing out there.....
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Chessmaster
Footballguy
Its possible. Again, we have to watch the preseason to see who the main backup is.Word out of San diego is that Sproles was so impressive in minicamp that it looks like he will definitely get a spot on the roster. That leaves (probably) only one spot for either Chatman or Turner.
Chatman has been LT's backup in the past, but Turner is apparently a standout on special teams. So, it would not be surprising to see Jesse Chatman cut, IMO.
Chessmaster
Footballguy
I know, he did, but generally you keep 3 running backs on the roster. You have LT, you have the very impressive rookie in Sproles, you have the classy vet who is a sandout on special teams in Turner. Unless they decide to keep an extra runner, chatman could be out.
The Carnage
Footballguy
If Chatman is cut, can the Titans be far behind? Jesse looked pretty good spelling LT last year and with the questions in TEN, he could be a 1 year insurance policy that ends up starting.
thats my guess at this point too. from what i hear, chatman is still too hurt to practice, and the bolts really like what theyve got in turner. The Chargers only resigned chatman to a one year deal in his RFA year this offseason, so that should tell you who they want in the long term plans - turner is signed through 06.edit to add: turner is also clearly the more talented back - he's like a bowling ball at 5'10" 230+, but he actually has straight line speed on top of that - he's a very underrated prospect for dynasty who could interest a lot of teams when he becomes a free agent down the line - he's built perfectly to be a feature back, and is explosive to boot.
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At this stage I have a hard time putting him in the category as the NFL's all time stats back and drawing conclusions from that. It's hard to presume that he'll stand up that well.
My point really is that given the overal lbrutal level of hitting in the league these days, the # of touches in a short period of time, the relative margin of projected points between Tomlinson and some other backs, etc. I wonder whether the risk for LT2 going at #1 isn't quite a bit greater than the almost universal concession that he's automatic at that position in the draft thats being awarded him.
No doubt all the other guys have their own risk but to me it seems that LT2's in being overlooked, understated, etc. Just saying I don't feel like it's not worth considering more than people are, just as with the other backs.
My point really is that given the overal lbrutal level of hitting in the league these days, the # of touches in a short period of time, the relative margin of projected points between Tomlinson and some other backs, etc. I wonder whether the risk for LT2 going at #1 isn't quite a bit greater than the almost universal concession that he's automatic at that position in the draft thats being awarded him.
No doubt all the other guys have their own risk but to me it seems that LT2's in being overlooked, understated, etc. Just saying I don't feel like it's not worth considering more than people are, just as with the other backs.
Chessmaster
Footballguy
You could've said the same things about Terrell Davis 7 years ago, and look what happened to him.The point he is trying to make is that we can't predict when a breakdown will happen, and as such NO running back is as sure a thing as is being said about Tomlinson.
Sure, he is the clear-cut #1 choice in any fantasy draft THIS YEAR, but he could easily follow the path of Terrell Davis and have injuries derail his career at an early age.
It's not a given, but its a possibility.
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that argument applies to ANY player in the league, You have to tell why LT is more likely to go the TD route than any other RB in the league. I dont think TD's problems happened because of his workload. They happened because his knee didnt heal right, and every subsequent attempt to fix it ended up deteriorating it more in the long run. If you can find some information to the effect that TDs workload up to the knee injury was what made the surgeries not take when tore his ACL, then ill agree that the comparison holds - based on what i know right now, i dont see it.
Chessmaster
Footballguy
I agree, you can't make that comparison between LT and TD any more than you can with any runner in the league. But that's the point.The OP never said that LT shouldn't be considered a top fantasy player, only that he shouldn't be considered the "sure thing" that many have him pegged as. Every runningback is a question mark because of the possibility of injury, no matter how elusive they seem to be.
Until he loses that 1/2 second that makes the difference between getting hit or not. I watched Thurman Thomas alot with the Bills and that's what happened to him and it happened suddenly. Not putting Thurman in LT's class but the point is the same,.I don't care what anyone says, more than 200 touches than any other back over the past 4 years is going to result in alot of hits, particularly when for most of that time he was the sole focus of the defenses as SD's only weapon and because he would not yield to that like some others.
Corey Dillon comes to mind as someone who would essentially take games off against tougher defenses.
So I think the chace of a drop off this year is sufficiently higher that most people are factoring in and Lt could drop back into the pack much more easily that most suggest. And if that's true why do almost all concede that he is #1?
Banger
Footballguy
and the fact that TD is not the same type of back that LT is, not close IMO. TD was a good back on the perfect team in terms of run blocking, system, etc. Several other backs after TD have put up great numbers in the same system. For the 1st few years in the league LT had no line, no qb, no wr's, nothing and he still managed to be one of the best in the game. Put TD on the Chargers those years and he doesn't come close to LT's #'s. TD was a good back in a great system, LT is a great back regardless of system.I think LT's biggest problem is lack of exposure. Unless you have a reason most people don't watch the Chargers. Over the past few years they don't get any prime time games (Sunday night/Monday night) so many don't really know how good this guy is. If he were on any big market team he would everyone would know how awesome the guy is.
Hey Woodrow, if your around what do you think? I think your opinion is usually pretty good on this sort of thing. If the issue is LT's shiftiness then I don't think TD is a very good comparison. His style running was much different aside from the knee issue. I'd compare him more to an Alexander type but as I say, he's had 200+ more carries than SA in the last 4 years. That's +/- 200 more hits of some kind and the way these guys get hit these days is extremely damaging if only in the way body shots are cumulatively damaging to a boxer. Nothing dramatic just a subtle erosion that can effect performance suddenly. I think this concept is why there are so many more "almost late hits" in the NFL than are necessary to really stop someone. And LT takes the same share of these as anyone else, but increased by 200 over the course of 4 years. Adds up.
the problem with your theory is that there are RBs who held up year after year under that kind of punishment (emmitt) - and so far LT fits the profile of an emmitt more than he fits the profile of thurman thomas. as i said, last year is a great example of this. LT's groin was clearly hurting and reduced his effectiveness. some RBs could play through the injury, but wouldnt have been nearly as effective as LT. Other RBs could not play through the injury because it would not heal unless they totally stopped football activities. LT was able to do both. This is a great predictor of how he'll handle nagging injuries that happen because of workload in the future. In other words, I think you saw last year what happens when LTs workload catches up with him and he's troubled by his body breaking down a bit - he still remains among the fantasy elite.Until he loses that 1/2 second that makes the difference between getting hit or not. I watched Thurman Thomas alot with the Bills and that's what happened to him and it happened suddenly. Not putting Thurman in LT's class but the point is the same,.I don't care what anyone says, more than 200 touches than any other back over the past 4 years is going to result in alot of hits, particularly when for most of that time he was the sole focus of the defenses as SD's only weapon and because he would not yield to that like some others.
Corey Dillon comes to mind as someone who would essentially take games off against tougher defenses.
So I think the chace of a drop off this year is sufficiently higher that most people are factoring in and Lt could drop back into the pack much more easily that most suggest. And if that's true why do almost all concede that he is #1?
Just a question, but does workload from year to year really mean that much? If an RB gets through a season without having to go through surgery, dont they have the offseason to REST and recuperate all their nicks and bruises? I would think that being the athletes that they are, these nicks and bruises should be all healed by the start of training camp?If that is true, then I think the real factor is age and how well these RBs recuperate, meaning that the older they get, the longer it would take to heal those nicks and bruises. So I would think that it would take a younger RB a shorter amount of time to heal in the offseason than an older back (where an older back might need part of training camp to heal). In LT's case, it would seem that he would be healed by the start of training camp, where as 3-4 years down the road, with the same workload, he wouldnt heal as quickly and that would mean that his "workload is catching up to him"Just throwing out something into the mix
Banger
Footballguy
Actually, along that line I remember an interview with LT when he was a rookie and apparently he met/knows Emmit and one thing that Emmitt stressed to him was making sure to take care of yourself and the bumps and bruises during the season. I remember LT saying that he spent extra time getting treatment (even though he didn't always need it) to make sure he was fully healed so that bumps/bruises didn't end up becoming more serious ailments.
Banger
Footballguy
See Isaac Bruce. He missed nearly an entire season due to a bad groin injury. Then let it heal, and now stretchs properly and hasn't had a problem in 3-4 years. Unless it's a bad tear, groins heal.LT doesn't have a chronic groin problem, he had a strain and was able to play through it and set a record with the injury.Would that be Cheech Marin?Sorry, just couldn't help myself there.About the groin injury, I would be curious if that is a sign of wear on a player. Anyone have any historical data on this or where one could find it?
I'm afraid most of you seem to be missing my point. 
I'll try again - alot of work can, and often does, result in a sudden significant drop of in performance , sufficient to bring a back back to the pack, either permanently or for some period of time. For instance, Curtis Martin. I acknowledge one can always point out differences between circumstances, style, whether a back is somehow inherently superior to all others,etc, but the fact remains that LT has taken many more hits over the last 4 years than anyone else, much like Marshall, Priest, on and on. He may be the next Emmitt Smith in terms of durability,but by definition, most backs, even the great ones, are not. I'll concede he's been exceptional but one result of that is SD has run him into the ground. As with Priest, Marshall, et al. All in their time were touted as exceptions unique to themselves, greatest ever, etc. They weren't, and clearly part of it was the beating taken from overuse. A younger runner like boxer may recuperate faster but lasting damage sustained cannot be undone. A body can only take so much ( whatever that amount is) and the hitting is much worse now than even in Emmitt's day.Despite the unanimity this year about LT being #1, in fact he is not projected significanlty higher than others in terms of fantasy points. Therefore, why is it that the number of hits he's taken over the last 4 years don't cause any one to consider that even a moderate fall off in performance will bring him back to the pack. The year Marshall dropped off, 2002, he went from 1 to 14. As I say, it can happen quickly. Capeesh?
I'll try again - alot of work can, and often does, result in a sudden significant drop of in performance , sufficient to bring a back back to the pack, either permanently or for some period of time. For instance, Curtis Martin. I acknowledge one can always point out differences between circumstances, style, whether a back is somehow inherently superior to all others,etc, but the fact remains that LT has taken many more hits over the last 4 years than anyone else, much like Marshall, Priest, on and on. He may be the next Emmitt Smith in terms of durability,but by definition, most backs, even the great ones, are not. I'll concede he's been exceptional but one result of that is SD has run him into the ground. As with Priest, Marshall, et al. All in their time were touted as exceptions unique to themselves, greatest ever, etc. They weren't, and clearly part of it was the beating taken from overuse. A younger runner like boxer may recuperate faster but lasting damage sustained cannot be undone. A body can only take so much ( whatever that amount is) and the hitting is much worse now than even in Emmitt's day.Despite the unanimity this year about LT being #1, in fact he is not projected significanlty higher than others in terms of fantasy points. Therefore, why is it that the number of hits he's taken over the last 4 years don't cause any one to consider that even a moderate fall off in performance will bring him back to the pack. The year Marshall dropped off, 2002, he went from 1 to 14. As I say, it can happen quickly. Capeesh?
Banger
Footballguy
The Curtis Martin that finished 4th in my league last year after 10+ years in the league?I understand what you are saying but don't agree with you. As was said above, LT is significantly younger than the backs you compare him to (Faulk/Martin) Yes, he's had a lot of carries but I haven't seen his performance diminish. Who would you draft as your top 5 knowing that LT has had a bunch of touches?I'm afraid most of you seem to be missing my point.
For instance, Curtis Martin.
I acknowledge one can always point out differences between circumstances, style, whether a back is somehow inherently superior to all others,etc, but the fact remains that LT has taken many more hits over the last 4 years than anyone else, much like Marshall, Priest, on and on. He may be the next Emmitt Smith in terms of durability,but by definition, most backs, even the great ones, are not.
I'll concede he's been exceptional but one result of that is SD has run him into the ground. As with Priest, Marshall, et al. All in their time were touted as exceptions unique to themselves, greatest ever, etc. They weren't, and clearly part of it was the beating taken from overuse.
A younger runner like boxer may recuperate faster but lasting damage sustained cannot be undone. A body can only take so much ( whatever that amount is) and the hitting is much worse now than even in Emmitt's day.
Despite the unanimity this year about LT being #1, in fact he is not projected significanlty higher than others in terms of fantasy points. Therefore, why is it that the number of hits he's taken over the last 4 years don't cause any one to consider that even a moderate fall off in performance will bring him back to the pack. The year Marshall dropped off, 2002, he went from 1 to 14. As I say, it can happen quickly.
Capeesh?
Tell me, have you ever watched LT play 2-3 games a season? The entire game, not two clips of him running it in on sports center.
Chaos
Footballguy
After reading this post, I can't figure if Deep Out is just a tool with a hard on for LT or maybe Jesse Chatman's mother hoping for a big year from her son.Seriously though, you made your point. Let it go at that. Its all speculation at this time so who are you trying to "convince" anyway?
Cogent analysis.It's hard to be elusive when you're laying on the ground, as unprotected as the next guy, taking late hits than all season, and likely more because of the increase carries, to say nothing of the fact that he's been taking multiple hits per touch through the years because he's been the sole focus of defenses for most of the time and he doesn't go down easily.
No matter how nifty a runner he's been, it's impossible to avoid hits when they're coming 2-3 at a time you're exposed on second efforts or your laying on the ground.
bicycle_seat_sniffer
Smells like chicken
I watch every charger game I can. Living in detroit he does remind me of barry in the fact that he doesn't get hammered when tackled. Sure its the NFL and the guy has alot of touches. LT is only 26, you normally dont see a decline in production from a stud like LT until age 29-30.His groin injury should be totally healed and he is no doubt the consensus top pick.
Chase Stuart
Footballguy
Does he? Last year one knee injury caused him to miss games. As far as I can tell, that was the first time a knee ever caused him to miss a game. I know he tore his ACL in college, but I'm not sure if that means a whole lot. Don't even know if it's the same knee.
holmes missed 8 games back when he was with baltimore with same injury (MCL strain) to the same knee in 1999. I have to think it played a lot into why the ravens took jamal lewis and eventually let holmes go. It was also a huge factor in my early prediction that priest would not play again last year after i saw exactly what the injury was - link to original threadhere's what i said:
so now we have priest twice missing half a season for a knee injury - one that he did not have surgically repaired. I think that is enough to qualify as a history of knee injuries, even without the torn ACL at UT.
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