FCP, we agree on most things; However, I think you have Antonio Brown criminally under rated. He will be a top 25 WR easily. My guess is in the 15-20 range. On a similar note, Mike Wallace is over rated. I think DHB and Desean Jackson will outperform a number of players ahead of them as well. Jackson in a joke of a year (worst case scenario) ended up right where you have him and DHB was top 30 with a string of weird games as well. Are you docking them that much for the knucklehead factor of Jackson and possibly DHB?
Sorry it's taken so long One Time. The last couple of days have been busy replying to people here and trying to get some real life work done to wrap up the week.Hey, this is my first shark pool post not using the Couch Potato account. I think I'm going to miss being CP. Anyway, onward...
Lets start with Mike Wallace and Antonio Brown. Wallace I'm very satisfied having in my top 10, and currently at #7. He finished each of the last two years at #9 (and two guys he finished behind, Roddy and Welker, I definitely want to have lower for dynasty), he's entering his prime (26 next August), his role isn't changing. Maybe you're discounting him some because he didn't finish strong in 2011, but I'm not making knee jerk moves in rankings due to temporary ups and downs in production without cause. Bottom line is I see Wallace as a rock solid top 10 guy, and players I have ranked just below him like Britt (injuries / immaturities), Dez (production to date / work ethic / immaturities), Harvin (workload / migraines) probably have more downside.
Antonio Brown I think I do need to bump up. When I do rankings next I'm likely to move him up to 27-28, around there. Not top 15-20 as you suggest. When I ranked him at 35, my thinking was that he was only about WR60 after 6 games, and really began to take off consistently after E Sanders got hurt and was in and out of the lineup most of the second half of the year. With Sanders back healthy in 2012, the thinking went, some of that production for Brown would disappear, and I ranked him WR35. That still may be the case. But when I got down to the research for ranking Sanders later on, I became less sure of Sanders doing that. I ended up with Sanders at WR66 rather than higher as my initial idea was to be, but never went back and adjusted Brown upward. I think Sanders is fine in the 60s and that I do need to move Brown up. So, thanks for the heads up on him.
DeSean Jackson... OK, let's start by saying I'm fine with where I have him, at WR27. Though he's at the bottom of it, he's still in
Tier 3 - Very strong producers and younger players with bigtime upside . We could quibble where in that group he belongs but I do discount him because he's a tool. Sorry, any guy who sulks and quits on his team during the season because of his contract is a tool. I can't just pretend it never happened, because to me it's an indicator of future immaturity issues that may affect performance. There's a trust factor that's been damaged, and although he signed a new contract, I don't think the Eagles or other teams around the league ignored what happened. Beyond that, he's a bit of a one trick pony, all or nothing WR. Because he's a deep and sideline receiver and a coward over the middle, his production will be up and down more than most WRs. That inconsistency will help you lose fantasy games when things don't click and he gets one catch for 16 yards when you need at least a decent day. So, for that reason I move him down a few notches vs. more consistent week to week producers.
DHB, or Hey-Bey as I like to call him... I have him at WR40 in
Tier 4 - Good producers with question marks and promising youngsters. While he did finally in his 3rd year have some very promising games, I just don't see him as a big producer for the Raiders over the long haul. He's going to be a supplemental guy I think, and if Denarius Moore and Jacoby Ford and McFadden and a decent TE can ever stay healthy and on the field, Hey-Bey will I think produce at around that WR40 level, good enough to help you some weeks and totally disappearing others. He needs to prove me wrong when those other guys are playing, because what I saw of him for his first two years was pretty sad. I need to see more to trust him.
Hope that helps. Of course, everyone looking at these rankings will disagree on a lot of players. It's all educated guessing and we all have our own perspectives. If the future was easily predictable it wouldn't be much fun!
Im honored that your first post is one replying to me
I have been HORRIBLE at judging RBS (trading Fitz(rookie pick)+Stephen Jackson(rookie pick) + more for Ricky Williams a week before his yearlong suspension, going all in on kevin jones in 2 leagues, and many bad bad examples).
However, I have always had a good gut when it comes to WRs/TEs. (Brandon Marshall(Rookie), Jimmy Graham(rookie), Eddie Royal(rookie) then trying to sell him off after 1 year; trading Randy Moss+ a year before the fell of a cliff for Roddy White and Desean Jackson; trading Roddy last year in the opening weeks for Antonio Brown and a few 1st round Rookie picks, etc etc) I mention these specific transactions since they're all in the one league I am in with you that I could think of off the top of my head
Having said that, this is where I quibble:
As far as Wallace I see him falling back to the 10-15 rank WR spot next year if not a tiny bit lower. The only two people I have JUST ahead of him value wise are Dez and Britt. I don't know WHO will jump him, I just am not super impressed watching him. If I had Wallace on my team, I would be looking to trade him with something to get a better WR(not Dez or Britt). There is a HUGE dropoff in the tier that he is headlining. Like I said, I rank off my gut, but in terms of talent/opportunity, I just see slightly disappointed owners this year.
You mentioned the biggest reason for Wallaces drop off...Antonio Brown. Antonio Brown may not have Elite WR measurables. He reminds me of a younger, better Donald driver in that he is not very flashy, but works hard, is under-rated, and produces because of his determination. Wallace is a much more flashy WR. Emmanuel Sanders has talent, but not near Brown or Wallace. He will slightly over perform his ranking that I have glanced at so far.
Emmanuel Sanders was playing the first 8 weeks, then missed 6 games the rest of the season. Brown busted out starting week 7, when Emmanuel Sanders was still playing. The thing was that I was watching some early Steeler games and Brown was impressive those first 6 weeks, he just didn't have the accumulation of the stats. Looking at those first 6 weeks, these were his targets: 9, 6, 8, 10, 4, 2. The writing was on the wall that he was going to bust out. He found a bit of a groove week 7. Week 9, Sanders goes out 3ish games and it created a bigger opportunity. It was obvious down the stretch that Roeth was looking to Brown in sticky situations. You had mentioned that Brown benefited from Sanders going out, however, at the same time Wallace was producing worse and worse even with Sanders out. Wallace was AMAZING the first 6 games. However, from week 7 on, these were their stats:
Mike Wallace: 10 Games Played, 39 Receptions, 581 yards, 4 TDs, 70 targets, 1 fumble lost----Ranked 23 WR in our league.
Antonio Brown: 10 games Played, 51 Receptions, 846 yards, 2 TDs, 85 targets, 0 fumbles lost---Ranked 12 WR in our league.
I'm willing to give Brown, just starting his 2nd year in which there was a shortened off-season, an excuse for not busting right onto the scene. But the kid has it all. This year will be a 1a/1b situation. While Wallace is more likely the 1a, I could see Brown winding up with better stats and it wouldn't surprise me one bit. Having Moore, Hill, Randle, Holmes, Steve Smith, Garcon, Decker, Torrey Smith, Meacham, and Crabtree ahead of Brown I think is a mistake.
I talked too much about this, but a lot of guys in leagues will be looking back to the beginning of the year wondering how they did not see the writing on the wall.
As far as the other things I mentioned, I won't harp too much on it.
Jackson was a top 10 dynasty talent (yes with a 10 cent head) just last year. That is my biggest fear. However, if Jackson starts out the season strong, TRADE FOR HIM. Maclin is a very good WR which will hinder his numbers a bit. But Jackson's talent cannot be denied. He is electric and can take any catch for a touchdown. For the time being, I would rank him for sure above Sidney Rice(never been a big fan), Brandon Lloyd(older), Colston(Won't touch that knee), Kendall Wright, and Stevie Johnson(10 cent head who just got paid and has less talent than Jackson). If he starts strong, I would value him more than about another 4-5 people.
DHB is the riskiest, yet cheapest to get of the guys I mentioned. I'll start out by saying I would likely take him over Cobb(too many good, young WRs), Young, Robinson(Lets not forget why and where he was last year), Moore(He has potential, but I like DHBs more), Stephen Hill, Reuben Randle, Holmes, Steve Smith (depends on if you have a playoff team), and Garcon)
DHB looked light years better this year than when he was a rookie. He has been working hard. He is surrounded by Palmer and a bunch of WRs with "potential". DHB was a top talent WR that was chosen a tad too high in the draft. Everyone KNEW he would take a few years to develop. Well guess what...a few years is here. It wasn't quick or easy, but DHB is showing glimpses and results that made him the first WR of the board a few years ago. He is my lottery ticket. You have him ranked right around 40. I would think, as long as he stays healthy, that is his floor. While I can imagine him ending next year ranked in the 30s, I also think he has a chance in a couple year to be a top 10-15 WR. I know people will scoff at that, but that is what is great about this sport. In a few years I could be very wrong. Or in a few years people may bump this post wondering why they didn't read it earlier, and why they didn't see the writing on the wall about Jackson, Brown, and DHB.
