Couch Potato 2012 Dynasty Rankings (1 Viewer)

[Concept Coop]

I don't think so. Some people might say he has more upside because of his running skills, but Tom Brady, Drew Brees, Aaron Rodgers, and Peyton Manning are the best QBs in recent FF history and it's not because of their running skills. A quarterback ultimately lives or dies based on his ability to throw the ball. Sure, you can fluke your way to a decent FF season solely because of running (see: Tim Tebow, Vince Young), but it's not a recipe for long term success.

I think you can pretty much throw RG3's running ability out the window.

Cam Newton and RG3 are a new breed, if I can be cliche for a moment. Comparing them to Tebow and Young is not really accurate, in my opinion. Netwon is the perfect example of what a QB that can score on the ground - which is different that a QB that makes his living on the ground - can do. And what Newton did was not a fluke. He will remain a starting QB because he is one of the better passing QBs to come along as a rookie. But his running stats will put him over the top. RG3 has that potential.

Granted, RG3 is not Newton. But, writing off his ability to score on the ground is a huge mistake, in my opinion. Newton scored close to 9 points a game on the ground alone. Take that away and he is not the consensus #2 dynasty QB.

 

[EBF]

I'd put Luck at 3 or 4. I couldn't take him ahead of Rodgers or Newton. I'm not sure I could pass on him for Brees or Stafford.

I know you're down on Stafford, but valuing an unproven Luck over him seems off. Luck is only 1.5 years younger. By the time Luck matures into a proven commodity, if he does, Stafford will probably have two more seasons of top 5 production under his belt. It's not like Luck is going to be a staple of a dynasty team for 5+ years after Stafford retires.Even with your prediction that Stafford will come back to earth from his 5,000+ 40+ season, which he will at least somewhat, there aren't any guarantees Luck can consistently outperform 4,000+ and 30+ on a season to season basis. I can't see a scenario where a healthy Stafford is under those numbers as long as Calvin Johnson is on his team.Put another way:Over the course of the next five seasons, which is roughly the time I expect most dynasty leagues to last, I'm fairly certain Matthew Stafford will score more fantasy points than Andrew Luck.

That's fine. I don't think it would be foolish to take Stafford over Luck. There are valid reasons for doing so. However, I think Luck is a better quarterback in every way besides arm strength. I would rather bank on the individual QB's skill than a friendly system. It's not just about the next 5 years for me. Two of my leagues have already run for 5+ years. A player like Luck is a long term investment. In a redraft league I would much rather have Stafford.

 

[Tau837]

I'd put Luck at 3 or 4. I couldn't take him ahead of Rodgers or Newton. I'm not sure I could pass on him for Brees or Stafford.

I know you're down on Stafford, but valuing an unproven Luck over him seems off. Luck is only 1.5 years younger. By the time Luck matures into a proven commodity, if he does, Stafford will probably have two more seasons of top 5 production under his belt. It's not like Luck is going to be a staple of a dynasty team for 5+ years after Stafford retires.Even with your prediction that Stafford will come back to earth from his 5,000+ 40+ season, which he will at least somewhat, there aren't any guarantees Luck can consistently outperform 4,000+ and 30+ on a season to season basis. I can't see a scenario where a healthy Stafford is under those numbers as long as Calvin Johnson is on his team.Put another way:Over the course of the next five seasons, which is roughly the time I expect most dynasty leagues to last, I'm fairly certain Matthew Stafford will score more fantasy points than Andrew Luck.

 

[ConnSKINS26]

If you're joining a league under the assumption that's its only going to last five years, you're joining the wrong league.

 

[Riffraff]

If you're joining a league under the assumption that's its only going to last five years, you're joining the wrong league.

Pretty sure they mean the majority of players won't be around in 5 years usually. Only the good ones last longer than their rookie contract (if they last that long). NFL replaces players very frequently.Per Goodell, the average career is close to 6 years.

 

[Grahamburn]

If you're joining a league under the assumption that's its only going to last five years, you're joining the wrong league.

I'd say more dynasty leagues fold in 5 years than the alternative.

 

[Ian F]

I don't think so. Some people might say he has more upside because of his running skills, but Tom Brady, Drew Brees, Aaron Rodgers, and Peyton Manning are the best QBs in recent FF history and it's not because of their running skills. A quarterback ultimately lives or dies based on his ability to throw the ball. Sure, you can fluke your way to a decent FF season solely because of running (see: Tim Tebow, Vince Young), but it's not a recipe for long term success.

Great thread by the way!I would argue that the thing that separates Rodgers from Brees and Brady is specifically the 300-400 ys + rushing TDs he gets that those guys don't. So yes he is a great FF QB because of his arm but he is the #1 QB because of his legs added in...So the highest upside FF guys are the passer + runner combos possibilities

 

[EBF]

That's if everything else is equal. I'm not sure you can say that RG3 and Luck are equal from a passing skills standpoint. At the very least you'd have to concede that the system Luck ran in college did a better job of preparing him for the NFL than the one Griffin ran. That doesn't mean Griffin can't become a better pro, but Luck has already demonstrated some of the mental components that Griffin may or may not possess. That makes him a safer projection at this point in time. Teams have already seen Luck do all of the things required of an NFL QB. Not so for Griffin, who ran a bit of a gimmicky offense and played against creampuffs.

 

[gheemony]

Do you think you'll add RB ages?

 

[Couch Potato]

Do you think you'll add RB ages?

Yes, I have that in now, just not posted yet. I'll need tomorrow to get revised RBs up. Work life kicked my backside this week and had little time.

 

[Couch Potato]

Added:

2nd pass at RBs added, with ages at 9/1/12.

RB ranking change since first pass (NR means not ranked previously).

UFA/RFA status for RBs added.

Some RB player notes done, some not completed yet.

Edited to add-- UFA/RFA status for all positions now done, 2/19.

 

[gheemony]

Added:2nd pass at RBs added, with ages at 9/1/12.RB ranking change since first pass (NR means not ranked previously).UFA/RFA status for RBs added.Some RB player notes done, some not completed yet.Edited to add-- UFA/RFA status for all positions now done, 2/19.

Thanks

 

[Couch Potato]

QB second pass has been added. The only notes included are original draft status and current contract status. Will do some notes this week as time permits.

Did a bit of re-tiering of first three tiers (3-3-3 instead of 2-3-4).

Biggest moves from 1st pass:

19 +4 Locker, Jake TEN

21 (-3) Manning, Peyton IND - ranking remains very fluid for obvious reasons

22 (-3) Sanchez, Mark NYJ

33 +5 Campbell, Jason OAK

37 +5 Skelton, John ARI

45 (-8) Pryor, Terrelle OAK

I'm still in disagreement with many concerning Stafford/Newton (though I've now put Cam in same tier), Palmer (high), Schaub (low), Tebow (low).

Cheers.

 

[Couch Potato]

WR 2nd pass has been done with notes on the UFA/RFA guys and guesses on some landing spots.

Did some re-tiering and now have 120 ranked WRs vs 110 before.

Also added 50 unranked WRs, listed by age.

Hopefully 2nd pass for TEs this weekend, then add rookies next week.

Cheers.

 

[Couch Potato]

Added to initial post under Quarterbacks heading:

Landing spot best guesses -- As of 2/26, here's my stab at where the more notable available QB names will end up. To become starter: Manning MIA, Flynn CLE, Luck IND, Griffin WAS (pick trade w/STL). To compete to start: Orton KC, Campbell SEA, Josh Johnson DEN. To backup but told by team they might compete: Henne NYJ, V Young JAC. Brees, A Smith, Hoyer will re-sign with current teams. Arizona loses out on Manning and sticks with Kolb / Skelton.

 

[cobalt_27]

Added to initial post under Quarterbacks heading:

Landing spot best guesses -- As of 2/26, here's my stab at where the more notable available QB names will end up. To become starter: Manning MIA, Flynn CLE, Luck IND, Griffin WAS (pick trade w/STL). To compete to start: Orton KC, Campbell SEA, Josh Johnson DEN. To backup but told by team they might compete: Henne NYJ, V Young JAC. Brees, A Smith, Hoyer will re-sign with current teams. Arizona loses out on Manning and sticks with Kolb / Skelton.

I strongly agree with most of this. Manning MIA, Luck IND, Griffin WAS all make a ton of (if not the most) sense. Flynn to CLE seems a very natural WCO fit, but part of me has wondered if SEA would make a play.Has there been any noise about Johnson coming in to SF, not so much to "compete" per se with Alex Smith, but to reunite with Harbaugh? They were pretty chummy in their SD days together, and I honestly think he could be a better option than Smith. Just my .02.

 

[Couch Potato]

Added to initial post under Quarterbacks heading:

Landing spot best guesses -- As of 2/26, here's my stab at where the more notable available QB names will end up. To become starter: Manning MIA, Flynn CLE, Luck IND, Griffin WAS (pick trade w/STL). To compete to start: Orton KC, Campbell SEA, Josh Johnson DEN. To backup but told by team they might compete: Henne NYJ, V Young JAC. Brees, A Smith, Hoyer will re-sign with current teams. Arizona loses out on Manning and sticks with Kolb / Skelton.

I strongly agree with most of this. Manning MIA, Luck IND, Griffin WAS all make a ton of (if not the most) sense. Flynn to CLE seems a very natural WCO fit, but part of me has wondered if SEA would make a play.Has there been any noise about Johnson coming in to SF, not so much to "compete" per se with Alex Smith, but to reunite with Harbaugh? They were pretty chummy in their SD days together, and I honestly think he could be a better option than Smith. Just my .02.

I had SEA as a possibility for Flynn as well, but GM Schneider threw some water on that at the combine yesterday or the day before, saying effectively that they won't spend big bucks for a QB they don't think will necessarily put them over the top. You can find his actual quote via Google, I'm paraphrasing from memory. It sounded a lot like he was addressing Flynn and Manning specifically without actually naming names. So, I'm looking more at someone like Campbell.The Josh Johnson talk was hot before SF went 13-3 with Smith. It's a given he'll re-sign, almost 100% certain. Everything coming out of SF (and I'm a homer) indicates that. They drafted Kaepernick to take over if (when) Smith falters, and Kaep was Harbaugh's hand picked guy, trading up in the 2nd round to snag him. Harbaugh loves his rocket arm, his mobility (much like Josh Johnson at USD and Luck at Stanford), and said this week Kaep is coming along nicely in his development.

So, the fit for Johnson just is no longer there. I think Denver will view Johnson as a player with mobility like Tebow who could come in and run a similar offense. Adding him would give healthy competition for Timmy in camp without giving the fan base the impression Tebow is not still in their plans.

All of the above player movement hinges on Manning though, and if he ends up in Arizona for example the dominoes will fall in some other way. Then Miami is the likely choice for Flynn, Cleveland then fights harder to trade up for RGIII, Washington then has to figure out what to do (Tannehill?), etc.

 

[Couch Potato]

By the way, the guesses above still leave at least the following six teams in need of a QB2:

Dallas -- per Jerruh, still not comfy handing it to McGee (Kitna has retired).

Chicago -- per Lovie I think (or new GM, I forget), Enderle will be #3, need a #2 and Hanie is going to be gone.

Tampa Bay -- losing Josh Johnson creates need.

Green Bay -- unless they want to risk going with Graham Harrell, and there has been some suggestion they may do just that (pretty scary after what we saw in Indy and Chicago last year trying to get by with scrub backups).

Indianapolis -- Orlovsky is a UFA, but certainly could re-sign to back up Luck.

Oakland -- nothing there after Campbell leaves but Boller (horrible and gone) and Terrelle Pryor (a million miles from being ready).

Six backup quality QBs on the market include (there are lots more of course, but I'll stick with these):

Dennis Dixon

Brady Quinn

Matt Leinart, I'm going to guess HOU cuts him loose after Yates showed he can handle job

David Garrard

Rex Grossman

Dan Orlovsky, mentioned above as a decent bet to re-sign in IND

 

[gianmarco]

By the way, the guesses above still leave at least the following six teams in need of a QB2allas -- per Jerruh, still not comfy handing it to McGee (Kitna has retired).Chicago -- per Lovie I think (or new GM, I forget), Enderle will be #3, need a #2 and Hanie is going to be gone.Tampa Bay -- losing Josh Johnson creates need.Green Bay -- unless they want to risk going with Graham Harrell, and there has been some suggestion they may do just that (pretty scary after what we saw in Indy and Chicago last year trying to get by with scrub backups).Indianapolis -- Orlovsky is a UFA, but certainly could re-sign to back up Luck.Oakland -- Nothing but Boller (horrible and gone) and Terrelle Pryor (a million miles from beign ready).Six backup quality QBs on the market include (there are lots more of course, but I'll stick with these)ennis DixonBrady QuinnMatt Leinart, I'm going to guess HOU cuts him loose after Yates showed he can handle jobDavid GarrardRex GrossmanDan Orlovsky, mentioned above as a decent bet to re-sign in IND

Don't forget Orton.

 

[Couch Potato]

Don't forget Orton.

He's one of the "higher" FA guys mentioned in post 115.

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

good work here potato

 

[Tau837]

As noted previously, I am very pessimistic about Manning, and I doubt he will end up being Miami's starter. Assuming both Miami and Cleveland want Flynn, I expect him to go to Miami, unless Green Bay franchises him and trades him, but that seems unlikely.

 

[Couch Potato]

As noted previously, I am very pessimistic about Manning, and I doubt he will end up being Miami's starter. Assuming both Miami and Cleveland want Flynn, I expect him to go to Miami, unless Green Bay franchises him and trades him, but that seems unlikely.

Tell you what, I'll bet you dinner that Manning is signed as someone's starter by the time I come to visit you in a couple of months.Just in case I lose, is there a Jack in the Box in town?

 

[Tau837]

As noted previously, I am very pessimistic about Manning, and I doubt he will end up being Miami's starter. Assuming both Miami and Cleveland want Flynn, I expect him to go to Miami, unless Green Bay franchises him and trades him, but that seems unlikely.

Tell you what, I'll bet you dinner that Manning is signed as someone's starter by the time I come to visit you in a couple of months.Just in case I lose, is there a Jack in the Box in town?

No JIB, but we can find something better. With regard to dynasty rankings, it matters more if he plays and plays well than if he signs somewhere.With regard to where free agent and rookie QBs will end up, the timing of what Manning can do seems to be problematic for him. We know he can't throw sufficiently now. Free agency opens in two weeks. Will he be able to throw sufficiently for a team like Miami to feel secure in signing him to the exclusion of other options like Flynn? I don't know the answer, but many seem to be ignoring this issue.

 

[Couch Potato]

TE 2nd pass has now been done, with pretty complete notes.

Also added 25 unranked TEs, listed by age.

Adding in rookies is next, maybe by Friday or Saturday.

Cheers.

 

[Couch Potato]

Pre-draft Rookies

Today an additional 55 very tentatively ranked (10QB, 15RB, 20WR, 10TE) and 30 unranked (5QB, 10RB, 10WR, 5TE) pre-draft rookies have now been added. The pre-draft rookies are ranked numerically using tenths (i.e., 27.1 is between veterans 27 and 28). The reason for this is that I didn't want to disturb the vet ranking numbers until after the NFL draft. I've included each rookie's projected draft round but take no credit or blame for accuracy -- these were heisted from Nfldraftscout.com. I did however make my own estimate of where within the round 1st rounders might land. I've used orange in the notes section to help you easily spot the rookies.

Rankings Changes

I've also made a few small rankings changes, most notably --

Peyton Manning to #16 from #21. I'm trusting the good news coming out on his arm more (sorry JWB), and 2-3 fantasy-startable years from PM are worth more IMO than 5-7 backup quality years from the guys below him.

Sort of a general re-shuffling of that whole Tier 5, including bringing Ponder up into it and dropping Sanchez out of it. I'm becoming more convinced Sanchez is going to be a short timer.

More re-shuffling in QB Tier 6, mainly dropping Fitzpatrick and Kolb down and some of the younger guys up.

Some minor stuff in the RBs, mainly in Tier 5 but also in Tier 8 to move Jer. Johnson and Fannin (both of Denver) up. I think one of those two has a good shot at some touches in 2012.

WRs, moving Jernigan up on the news he's likely to be the #3 for NYG and Simpson down after his guilty plea and likely NFL suspension if and when he does sign on with a team.

 

[Multiple Scores]

I think you got Richardson right and possibly Luck. Griffin I think is too high but it's possible. I think Blackmon is way too high, 14 at best for me. Overall nice work.

 

[Sudoku_in_the_Bathtub]

I think Dion Lewis is really too low.

If Shady goes down, he's no worse than a borderline RB1 in PPR leagues. (I really can't say that for most of the 30+ guys ahead of him)

(Obviously I believe Dion's the backup in 2012. And health willing, the foreseeable future)

 

[Couch Potato]

I think Dion Lewis is really too low. If Shady goes down, he's no worse than a borderline RB1 in PPR leagues. (I really can't say that for most of the 30+ guys ahead of him) (Obviously I believe Dion's the backup in 2012. And health willing, the foreseeable future)

I just really have nothing to go on when it comes to ranking him higher. He was a late 5th rounder so I have to wonder about the talent at least as much as the guys ahead of him, plus he's stuck behind a stud 24 year old and not free until 2015 so the upside due to situation isn't there. Maybe you're right, perhaps he would be a standout in the mold of Westbrook/McCoy if filling in due to injury, but I wasn't ranking so much on injury replacement value as on breakout value with possible opportunity. I'm making a note to look at him again but no way he'd move up more than a handful of spots, certainly not above 30 guys like you're suggesting. He's got no chance of being more than a backup for the next 3 full seasons.

 

[Couch Potato]

I think you got Richardson right and possibly Luck. Griffin I think is too high but it's possible. I think Blackmon is way too high, 14 at best for me. Overall nice work.

I think Blackmon can be for some team what Julio Jones is going to be for ATL. Right or wrong, that's my reasoning for slotting him right behind Julio.

 

[Tau837]

Pre-draft Rookies

Today an additional 55 very tentatively ranked (10QB, 15RB, 20WR, 10TE) and 30 unranked (5QB, 10RB, 10WR, 5TE) pre-draft rookies have now been added. The pre-draft rookies are ranked numerically using tenths (i.e., 27.1 is between veterans 27 and 28). The reason for this is that I didn't want to disturb the vet ranking numbers until after the NFL draft. I've included each rookie's projected draft round but take no credit or blame for accuracy -- these were heisted from Nfldraftscout.com. I did however make my own estimate of where within the round 1st rounders might land. I've used orange in the notes section to help you easily spot the rookies.

I didn't look closely at all of the rookies, but I think you have all of Luck, Griffin, and Blackmon ranked too high.I know you have said this isn't a draft list and it isn't a trade list, but I can't help but look at the rankings and think that I would not trade players you have ranked lower for these guys who you have ranked higher. For example, I would not trade any of your top 8 veteran WRs for Blackmon, so I could not rank him higher than 8.1 in your list.

Part of this probably goes to something I think I asked in an earlier post. Have you posted what time window you are looking at for these rankings? For example, do you use a 3 year window, 5 year window, etc.?

 

[Couch Potato]

Pre-draft Rookies

Today an additional 55 very tentatively ranked (10QB, 15RB, 20WR, 10TE) and 30 unranked (5QB, 10RB, 10WR, 5TE) pre-draft rookies have now been added. The pre-draft rookies are ranked numerically using tenths (i.e., 27.1 is between veterans 27 and 28). The reason for this is that I didn't want to disturb the vet ranking numbers until after the NFL draft. I've included each rookie's projected draft round but take no credit or blame for accuracy -- these were heisted from Nfldraftscout.com. I did however make my own estimate of where within the round 1st rounders might land. I've used orange in the notes section to help you easily spot the rookies.

I didn't look closely at all of the rookies, but I think you have all of Luck, Griffin, and Blackmon ranked too high.I know you have said this isn't a draft list and it isn't a trade list, but I can't help but look at the rankings and think that I would not trade players you have ranked lower for these guys who you have ranked higher. For example, I would not trade any of your top 8 veteran WRs for Blackmon, so I could not rank him higher than 8.1 in your list.

Part of this probably goes to something I think I asked in an earlier post. Have you posted what time window you are looking at for these rankings? For example, do you use a 3 year window, 5 year window, etc.?

But wouldn't the same have been said for Newton, AJ Green, and Julio Jones a year ago? The thing is, if you want to hit a home run you have to take the risk because it's too late once he's done it.Using trade value is tricky. If I'm in a position to get a player I think can be special, I'd like to think I'd trade for him, but sometimes winning this year is more important than long term value if they are only a few rankings spots different. There's always that balancing act, to win now or await the new guy getting up to speed.

That's a difficult choice with Blackmon and Jennings for example. One is nearly 29 and the other is 23. But in a year or two, keeping Jennings over Blackmon could look awfully foolish. I wouldn't hesitate moving Britt or Bowe or someone like that for him though, because I think he has a lot more potential than those guys.

I think the window I'm looking at is full career, or at least 5-7 years, with less emphasis on future years than now and near term years. I think a 3 year window is far too short. It's still little more than a gut feel for where that trade off is, and I want to explore doing some NPV work to better define it in my mind. Special WRs get up to speed usually in their 2nd year and certainly by their 3rd year. Question is how much do you lose by waiting. Still sorting all that out in a way that can go on paper.

 

[az_prof]

I am shocked by where you have the rookie QBs. Either you are a genius prognosticator or you trust the talking heads a lot more than I do. I would much rather have a guy who have proven he is a top 10 player rather than one who is SUPPOSED to be one.

 

[Couch Potato]

I am shocked by where you have the rookie QBs. Either you are a genius prognosticator or you trust the talking heads a lot more than I do. I would much rather have a guy who have proven he is a top 10 player rather than one who is SUPPOSED to be one.

I understand. You and Just Win Baby are probably in the majority.But these two QBs have been talked about, not just by media talking heads, but scouts and GMs and former coaches, as two of the best to come into the league in a long time. Their skills are different but their potential is off the charts.Those guys in their 30s are working with a short window. It's not just that they will retire on average around 35-36, but their skills decline gradually before that happens. I can't draft 2010 or 2011 numbers for those guys, only 2012 and beyond. As I said in my last post, I don't know where the break even is exactly. But I do know I don't want to be the guy playing it safe while someone else hits the home run with one of these two guys if I have any intention of being in a dynasty league for 4, 7, 10 years.

 

[thriftyrocker]

\

Those guys in their 30s are working with a short window. It's not just that they will retire on average around 35-36, but their skills decline gradually before that happens.

If you're talking about HOF QBs like Brady and Brees, I think that statement is pretty false. Guys like Favre, Young, Elway and Moon have had top 5 (and better) years in their late 30s. Some HOFers fell apart (Montana missed a whole year due to an elbow injury and never put together a full year after that), but guys who stayed in 1 piece generally were highly effective from a fantasy perspective late in their careers.

 

[Couch Potato]

\

Those guys in their 30s are working with a short window. It's not just that they will retire on average around 35-36, but their skills decline gradually before that happens.

If you're talking about HOF QBs like Brady and Brees, I think that statement is pretty false. Guys like Favre, Young, Elway and Moon have had top 5 (and better) years in their late 30s. Some HOFers fell apart (Montana missed a whole year due to an elbow injury and never put together a full year after that), but guys who stayed in 1 piece generally were highly effective from a fantasy perspective late in their careers.

What a QB loses in his 30s is arm strength. It's subtle at first but by mid-30s those who were without exceptional arm strength to begin with start to have difficulty making all the throws in tight spaces and the deep throws that they once could. They then have to adjust their game to account for that.Sure, there will be outliers who had such arm strength to begin with that they could get away with losing some of it and still be fairly OK. Notice that the names you mentioned were all rocket-armed in their prime? And some of those guys had stinker seasons surrounding the outlier stud year late in a career. I happen to believe P Manning will end up included in this elite-beyond-35 group because he's been that special, one of maybe the greatest 3-4 QBs in the history of the sport.

It's not much different than a strikeout pitcher in baseball. Their strikeout totals decline in their 30s and they are forced to use more guile and paint the corners better, because less and less they are able to just throw it by guys. By 35 they are in big trouble and finished if they haven't adjusted. Guys like Ryan and Clemens seemed to still have it late, but that was because they started at a higher level and what they lost brought them down to what other guys start with (in Clemens case of course there's the whole steroid question too).

I'd be very worried about Brady, now 35. It's already becoming evident the arm strength is leaving him. His game is now mostly short stuff, and when he does go deep he's often under-throwing guys. It'll just get worse, and no matter how great he once was or how long he wants to keep playing, it'll be time for management to say move aside for the young guy. Don't be surprised, he may only have two years left. Brees isn't there yet (just 33) to the point the strength loss is evident, but it will become more so in the next few years. The Saints are balking at paying the man $25 mil per over the next 6 years. Why would they do that if he'll still be the same guy 4-5 years from now? Because they know he won't be. Time gets them all.

Most fantasy guys are a year too late realizing a player is losing it, and also a year too late realizing a young WR or QB is going to be elite. By ranking Luck and Griffin where I believe most will be ranking them once they've figured things out, I'm avoiding being behind the curve and kicking myself in two years for owning a declining Brees or Brady when Luck / RGIII are atop everyone's rankings. I can't in good conscience simply create redraft rankings and then move guys up or down 1-2 spots here and there to call them dynasty rankings. That's what most people do and I think it's far too short-sighted.

 

[Gandalf]

\

Those guys in their 30s are working with a short window. It's not just that they will retire on average around 35-36, but their skills decline gradually before that happens.

If you're talking about HOF QBs like Brady and Brees, I think that statement is pretty false. Guys like Favre, Young, Elway and Moon have had top 5 (and better) years in their late 30s. Some HOFers fell apart (Montana missed a whole year due to an elbow injury and never put together a full year after that), but guys who stayed in 1 piece generally were highly effective from a fantasy perspective late in their careers.

What a QB loses in his 30s is arm strength. It's subtle at first but by mid-30s those who were without exceptional arm strength to begin with start to have difficulty making all the throws in tight spaces and the deep throws that they once could. They then have to adjust their game to account for that.Sure, there will be outliers who had such arm strength to begin with that they could get away with losing some of it and still be fairly OK. Notice that the names you mentioned were all rocket-armed in their prime? And some of those guys had stinker seasons surrounding the outlier stud year late in a career. I happen to believe P Manning will end up included in this elite-beyond-35 group because he's been that special, one of maybe the greatest 3-4 QBs in the history of the sport.

It's not much different than a strikeout pitcher in baseball. Their strikeout totals decline in their 30s and they are forced to use more guile and paint the corners better, because less and less they are able to just throw it by guys. By 35 they are in big trouble and finished if they haven't adjusted. Guys like Ryan and Clemens seemed to still have it late, but that was because they started at a higher level and what they lost brought them down to what other guys start with (in Clemens case of course there's the whole steroid question too).

I'd be very worried about Brady, now 35. It's already becoming evident the arm strength is leaving him. His game is now mostly short stuff, and when he does go deep he's often under-throwing guys. It'll just get worse, and no matter how great he once was or how long he wants to keep playing, it'll be time for management to say move aside for the young guy. Don't be surprised, he may only have two years left. Brees isn't there yet (just 33) to the point the strength loss is evident, but it will become more so in the next few years. The Saints are balking at paying the man $25 mil per over the next 6 years. Why would they do that if he'll still be the same guy 4-5 years from now? Because they know he won't be. Time gets them all.

Most fantasy guys are a year too late realizing a player is losing it, and also a year too late realizing a young WR or QB is going to be elite. By ranking Luck and Griffin where I believe most will be ranking them once they've figured things out, I'm avoiding being behind the curve and kicking myself in two years for owning a declining Brees or Brady when Luck / RGIII are atop everyone's rankings. I can't in good conscience simply create redraft rankings and then move guys up or down 1-2 spots here and there to call them dynasty rankings. That's what most people do and I think it's far too short-sighted.

I agree with everything you have said here. Especially as a Pats fan. I love Brady to the point of irrationality and even I have to admit I am worried about his ability to throw the deep ball. I think he has 1-2 years left. And he takes some big hits. Every QB does but at 35 I worry the next hit will end him and we will see his back up (? Mallet - who I own) on the field. Not unlike how Brady came into the league when Bledsoe got hit and collapsed his lung. If he stays healthy with the two TEs and Welker he can be a top QB. But I think expecting to do it for more than 2 years is aggressive. I think I would rather have 15 years of Andrew Luck instead!

 

[Couch Potato]

QB and TE rankings updated 3/22 for first week-plus of free agency.

RB and WR rankings expected to be updated 3/23.

 

[ctrlaltdefeat]

Couch Potato,

Do you edit your rankings right in the very first post? Or do you have a website or something?

 

[Couch Potato]

Couch Potato,Do you edit your rankings right in the very first post? Or do you have a website or something?

I keep an elaborate spreadsheet that I work on, but because it's interlinked with other spreadsheets feeding into it I can't really post it on something like the Google Docs app. The rankings posted in the OP are just a tiny piece of my whole spreadsheet file group.So, when I'm ready to edit the original post here, I copy/paste columns from that spreadsheet onto a "clean" one, do some other things no one but me cares about, and then post.I'm updating my spreadsheet daily when news happens as far as new team, contracts, notes are concerned. I don't re-rank until the day I'm ready to post the fresh rankings in the OP.

 

[Tau837]

I'm interested in how you rank TEs. How much is talent vs. situation?

I ask because I thought Fleener might be higher after his pro day. He is basically Gronk's size (about 10 pounds lighter, same height), but he is considerably faster than Gronk (4.45-4.51 for Fleener vs. 4.65 for Gronk). He also had WR level vertical and horizontal jumps, presumably better than Gronk. He is coming out of a pro-style offense. So I'm trying to reconcile his 13.1 (14th) ranking.

I'm not saying I think he should necessarily be higher. I haven't done much research on him yet. Just trying to figure out why you rank guys like Gresham, Cook, Keller, etc. higher.

Note I am not saying he should be ranked where Gronk is ranked, just using him as a comparable since he is elite.

 

[Concept Coop]

CP,

Assuming the NE RB job comes down to Ridley, Vereen - how high do you bump Vereen - I see that you project him to be the smart bet.

 

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

CP,Assuming the NE RB job comes down to Ridley, Vereen.

Don't see it now to give a link, but Woodhead's expected to be the 3rd down guy. Really limits the value of the other two.

 

[Couch Potato]

CP,Assuming the NE RB job comes down to Ridley, Vereen - how high do you bump Vereen - I see that you project him to be the smart bet.

I'll be working on RBs this evening (afternoon if I have some time) but Vereen probably RB-30ish, give or take a couple spots. Ridley a handful of spots lower, maybe 3-5 lower. THe RB38 (Vereen) and RB45 (Ridley) rankings I've had pre-free agency don't get a major, major bump with BJGE leaving because it was already 75% assumed in those rankings.I don't think this will be a matter of one as a starter and the other a backup. They'll RBBC it with Vereen doing more outside running and catching passes and Ridley in the BJGE role. Because of the sharing and the many other weapons, it's hard to see either approaching stud RB status as long as Brady has his WRs / TEs to also distribute to.

 

[BassNBrew]

27 +1 Thomas, Demaryius DEN 24.7 … 1st round, #22 pick in 2010. Signed through 2014.

When you look at the names in his tier it doesn't add up. After reading your defense about bumping up Luck/RG3 it makes even less sense. What am I missing here?

 

[Couch Potato]

CP,Assuming the NE RB job comes down to Ridley, Vereen.

Don't see it now to give a link, but Woodhead's expected to be the 3rd down guy. Really limits the value of the other two.

That would be a surprise. Woodhead isn't nearly the talent Vereen is. Woody will have a role but a minor one, as BB does like to change things up. One thing though -- and it's another reason not to rank Vereen or Ridley too high until they are established -- unlike a lot of other teams they are not afraid to cut bait (Maroney, Chad Jackson, Taylor Price come to mind) regardless of draft status if they decide the pick was a mistake. If they decide Vereen isn't going to fit or Ridley won't stop fumbling, gone baby gone. I don't expect that, but it's a greater risk than with some teams who stick with their higher drafted guys no matter what. If that happened, mediocre but reliable Woodhead would see an increased role.

 

[Couch Potato]

27 +1 Thomas, Demaryius DEN 24.7 … 1st round, #22 pick in 2010. Signed through 2014. When you look at the names in his tier it doesn't add up. After reading your defense about bumping up Luck/RG3 it makes even less sense. What am I missing here?

You are missing that I haven't done WRs yet. He'll get more love once I've updated. That ranking had sucky-armed Tebow as the presumed long term QB.

 

[Couch Potato]

Not feeling well this afternoon / evening. Hopefully I'll have RBs done Saturday, WRs Sunday.

I did manage to modify TEs for the Denver signings and ripple effects.

 

[Couch Potato]

All positions are updated through the 2nd week of free agency. For the millions of you on the edge of your seats waiting for this (OK, so nobody even noticed, that's fine too), apologies for not getting it done over the weekend. I started coming down sick Friday and had no motivation until yesterday.

 

[Couch Potato]

27 +1 Thomas, Demaryius DEN 24.7 … 1st round, #22 pick in 2010. Signed through 2014. When you look at the names in his tier it doesn't add up. After reading your defense about bumping up Luck/RG3 it makes even less sense. What am I missing here?

You are missing that I haven't done WRs yet. He'll get more love once I've updated. That ranking had sucky-armed Tebow as the presumed long term QB.

Demaryius is now 14th in my rankings.