Anyone else concerned about Tomlinson breaking dow (1 Viewer)

[DeepOut]

C'mon cstu- that isn't what i'm saying. If you went back and read my earlier posts in this never ending thread, my original question was - why is LT seemingly the consensus pick for #1 RB when he has never been #1 in fantasy points, his production dropped off quite a bit last year, he's had 200+ more carries in the last 4 years than any other back and alot of these guys that run alot and hard seem to breakdown somewhat in their 4th and 5th years. He's a great back of course but I just don't see him as being so clearly dominant as to merit the unanimity he's receiving. I compared him to Sanders for the reason I stated in my last post, because every one was making noise that LT was immune to these problems because he ran so slippery and therefore didn't get hit as much as other guys. As I say, just for comparisons sake and because the other people on the thread thought it relevant( even though you and I know they're different people ) I said Sanders had 200+ fewer carries his first 3 years and broke down in the 4th enough so his production dropped 20% and then another 30% in the 5th year. LTs production dropped 18% last year, his 4th.I've said several times we all know a variety of factors come into play when production dips, but it seems to me this is a material one and it appears that LT is a prime candidate for it this year, and may in fact have started a drop off last year. Is this definitive? Of course not. Is it something to consider before taking LT #1? I think so.

 

[DeepOut]

apparently my son was on something called acid and was firing a bow and arrow into a crowd.

Do you believe this? Apparently, it may not be only your son who'sgone on a trip.

 

[cstu]

C'mon cstu- that isn't what i'm saying. If you went back and read my earlier posts in this never ending thread, my original question was - why is LT seemingly the consensus pick for #1 RB when he has never been #1 in fantasy points, his production dropped off quite a bit last year, he's had 200+ more carries in the last 4 years than any other back and alot of these guys that run alot and hard seem to breakdown somewhat in their 4th and 5th years. He's a great back of course but I just don't see him as being so clearly dominant as to merit the unanimity he's receiving.

I compared him to Sanders for the reason I stated in my last post, because every one was making noise that LT was immune to these problems because he ran so slippery and therefore didn't get hit as much as other guys.

As I say, just for comparisons sake and because the other people on the thread thought it relevant( even though you and I know they're different people ) I said Sanders had 200+ fewer carries his first 3 years and broke down in the 4th enough so his production dropped 20% and then another 30% in the 5th year. LTs production dropped 18% last year, his 4th.

I've said several times we all know a variety of factors come into play when production dips, but it seems to me this is a material one and it appears that LT is a prime candidate for it this year, and may in fact have started a drop off last year.

Is this definitive? Of course not. Is it something to consider before taking LT #1? I think so.

You're absolutely right it is something to be considered, but if you think about it too much you'll decide to pass on a RB and take Manning. That may or may not be the right thing to do, but it's going to leave you scrambling for RB's later on. That's why I don't worry too much about injuries and just try to pick guys that are a little less likely to have a major injury, like an ACL, or be crybabies that are afraid to play hurt and hope for the best.

 

[DeepOut]

Fair enough.Here's hoping you have a great season whoever you pick. Good luck.

 

[peter griffin]

what you implying there old man?

 

[DeepOut]

what you implying there old man?

I was talking about this crazy thread, Big Man. I don't know, maybe it's because I don't speak spanish. All I know is they've done studies and 60% of the time it works every time.

 

[Gr00vus]

C'mon cstu- that isn't what i'm saying. If you went back and read my earlier posts in this never ending thread, my original question was - why is LT seemingly the consensus pick for #1 RB when he has never been #1 in fantasy points, his production dropped off quite a bit last year, he's had 200+ more carries in the last 4 years than any other back and alot of these guys that run alot and hard seem to breakdown somewhat in their 4th and 5th years. He's a great back of course but I just don't see him as being so clearly dominant as to merit the unanimity he's receiving.

I compared him to Sanders for the reason I stated in my last post, because every one was making noise that LT was immune to these problems because he ran so slippery and therefore didn't get hit as much as other guys.

As I say, just for comparisons sake and because the other people on the thread thought it relevant( even though you and I know they're different people ) I said Sanders had 200+ fewer carries his first 3 years and broke down in the 4th enough so his production dropped 20% and then another 30% in the 5th year. LTs production dropped 18% last year, his 4th.

I've said several times we all know a variety of factors come into play when production dips, but it seems to me this is a material one and it appears that LT is a prime candidate for it this year, and may in fact have started a drop off last year.

Is this definitive? Of course not. Is it something to consider before taking LT #1? I think so.

Barry Sanders broke down in his 4th year? Really? You don't seem to remember your football history very well. A crazy thing happened (literally crazy) Barry's 4th year. Wayne Fontes for whatever reason decided to take Barry out of the game inside the five and on short yardage. The result, 7 less touchdowns in year four than year three, only 3 (!!!!!) touchdowns in year five total. That decision also resulted in (tada!) less touches on the season! More importantly in year 5 he missed the last 5 games beacuse of a knee injury caused by astroturf - an injury that has nothing to do with number of carries or even getting hit hard. That pretty much completely explains this "drop off" you keep mythically harping on. Barry was no less of a performer, he got fewer opportunities to perform. Just like I said before, less touches = less numbers, which you did nothing to refute (except to direct me to Jesus?). You've got zero leg to stand on logically. But to put the final nail in your silly too many carries coffin, please to be explaining Barry's 1997 season where he ran for over 2000 yards, had a 6.1 ypc average and scored 11 tds with little to no work inside the five. This was Barry's 9th season in the league, up to which point he had 2384 NFL carries, in the three seasons prior he had carried over 300 times, and in that 1997 season he carried the ball 335 times. After the 1993 injury Barry never missed another game, never had less than 300 carries in a seaon and never rushed for less than 1491 yards. He really suffered from the workload. Once again the facts bear little relation to your claims. But you're not interested in those I guess.

As for LaDainian not finishing #1 yet - he's finished top 3 the last 3 years. There isn't another player in the league you can say that about. That's exactly what you want from a #1 pick, along with all the other qualities I mentioned which you chose to ignore. Those are the reasons he's the clear number 1 pick.

I'm not saying LaDainain is the all time greatest back (yet), but he's definitely the best back in the NFL right now, and yes he is in fact comparable to Emmitt and Barry at this juncture, both from a pure talent perspective and a production perspective.

Priest had a couple of great seasons, but do you really want to bet your season on a 32 year old running back comming off knee problems with possibly lingering hip problems? Really? And I like Alexander - I was one of the people on the boards last year saying I thought he'd be worth the #2 overall selection last year - but you got pretty much his best season last year. So far 2003 was LaDainian's best year, and it was better than Alexander's best. In truth I do think LaDainain can top 2003 at some point - he's got a higher ceiling than Alexander. Then there are the contract/trade grumblings with Alexander.

I do find it hillarious that Deep Out continues to deny these things though, and that's why I like bumping this thread - each subsequent post by Deep Out exposes more of his (her?) ignorance resulting in more humour.

Thanks for the chuckle.

 

[peter griffin]

the ignorance of some people in this post smells like a baby's diaper covered in Indian food or a turd covered with burnt hair, or bigfoots ****.

 

[DeepOut]

C'mon cstu- that isn't what i'm saying. If you went back and read my earlier posts in this never ending thread, my original question was - why is LT seemingly the consensus pick for #1 RB when he has never been #1 in fantasy points, his production dropped off quite a bit last year, he's had 200+ more carries in the last 4 years than any other back and alot of these guys that run alot and hard seem to breakdown somewhat in their 4th and 5th years. He's a great back of course but I just don't see him as being so clearly dominant as to merit the unanimity he's receiving. I compared him to Sanders for the reason I stated in my last post, because every one was making noise that LT was immune to these problems because he ran so slippery and therefore didn't get hit as much as other guys.

As I say, just for comparisons sake and because the other people on the thread thought it relevant( even though you and I know they're different people ) I said Sanders had 200+ fewer carries his first 3 years and broke down in the 4th enough so his production dropped 20% and then another 30% in the 5th year. LTs production dropped 18% last year, his 4th.

I've said several times we all know a variety of factors come into play when production dips, but it seems to me this is a material one and it appears that LT is a prime candidate for it this year, and may in fact have started a drop off last year.

Is this definitive? Of course not. Is it something to consider before taking LT #1? I think so.

Barry Sanders broke down in his 4th year? Really? You don't seem to remember your football history very well. A crazy thing happened (literally crazy) Barry's 4th year. Wayne Fontes for whatever reason decided to take Barry out of the game inside the five and on short yardage. The result, 7 less touchdowns in year four than year three, only 3 (!!!!!) touchdowns in year five total. That decision also resulted in (tada!) less touches on the season! More importantly in year 5 he missed the last 5 games beacuse of a knee injury caused by astroturf - an injury that has nothing to do with number of carries or even getting hit hard. That pretty much completely explains this "drop off" you keep mythically harping on. Barry was no less of a performer, he got fewer opportunities to perform. Just like I said before, less touches = less numbers, which you did nothing to refute (except to direct me to Jesus?). You've got zero leg to stand on logically. But to put the final nail in your silly too many carries coffin, please to be explaining Barry's 1997 season where he ran for over 2000 yards, had a 6.1 ypc average and scored 11 tds with little to no work inside the five. This was Barry's 9th season in the league, up to which point he had 2384 NFL carries, in the three seasons prior he had carried over 300 times, and in that 1997 season he carried the ball 335 times. After the 1993 injury Barry never missed another game, never had less than 300 carries in a seaon and never rushed for less than 1491 yards. He really suffered from the workload.

Once again the facts bear little relation to your claims. But you're not interested in those I guess.

As for LaDainian not finishing #1 yet - he's finished top 3 the last 3 years. There isn't another player in the league you can say that about. That's exactly what you want from a #1 pick, along with all the other qualities I mentioned which you chose to ignore. Those are the reasons he's the clear number 1 pick.

I'm not saying LaDainain is the all time greatest back (yet), but he's definitely the best back in the NFL right now, and yes he is in fact comparable to Emmitt and Barry at this juncture, both from a pure talent perspective and a production perspective.

Priest had a couple of great seasons, but do you really want to bet your season on a 32 year old running back comming off knee problems with possibly lingering hip problems? Really? And I like Alexander - I was one of the people on the boards last year saying I thought he'd be worth the #2 overall selection last year - but you got pretty much his best season last year. So far 2003 was LaDainian's best year, and it was better than Alexander's best. In truth I do think LaDainain can top 2003 at some point - he's got a higher ceiling than Alexander. Then there are the contract/trade grumblings with Alexander.

I do find it hillarious that Deep Out continues to deny these things though, and that's why I like bumping this thread - each subsequent post by Deep Out exposes more of his (her?) ignorance resulting in more humour.

Thanks for the chuckle.

Gr00vus - I don't know what else to say - you keep making my point back at me. Whether Sanders breaks down or Fontes takes him out to prevent further wear and tear, his production is being reduced because of the 'wear out' issue. I f he gets hurt it's a break down, if it results in a drop off in points, then......

Keep trying though - you'll get there.

 

[Gr00vus]

"Whether Sanders breaks down or Fontes takes him out to prevent further wear and tear" Thanks for continuing to deliver the laughs. Your complete denial/avoidance of the facts is gold - you should really be doing stand up or working for the governement.

 

[DeepOut]

you say Fontes took him out at the goal line "for some reason". If you didn't know why but had to speculate why he did that, what would you say? I think he'd leave him in the game as much as he felt he could. I can't see any other reason for taking him out except to protect him from more wear and tear +/or risk of injury than Fontes thinks he can handle. And with a great back like Sanders, I think he'd be even more reluctant to lose his talent, especially at the goal line. And in the end, his points drop. I think it was because his coach was trying to prevent overuse problems. And then as you say, the next year he got hurt anyway. Maybe it is all just a coincidence but you've re-stated the fact that his production did fall off in the 4th and 5th years. Concern for the risk of injury and injury itself played a material role in it. I don't know what else to say to you if you don't see it that way.Ultimately we can all explain it to ourselves however we choose. We've told each other how we view it so whats left to talk about? But, if you are serious about your position( rather than just goofing around - and I don't know the answer to that one) and you think what I'm saying is laughable, as it seems you do, ask someone else to read your description of why he was taken out at the goal, had his carries reduced and ultimately got hurt and then ask them to characterize what you've said. To me it's a long way of describing a coach limiting play to try to avoid injury with the final outcome being that the player gets injured anyway. You can write again, I suppose to get a rise out of some audience you're trying to amuse, but you'll have to do it without me after this. I'm afraid I've decided to block you now. But you go right ahead and keep going if you want.One last thing - I guess I don't get all the insults you been putting out there in this thread, but that sort of thing goes in one ear and out the other ( so to speak) with me. To my way of thinking it's just boring and does nothing but reeflect poorly on you. Most people in this forum would sgree I think. But, to each his own....

 

[Gr00vus]

Again if you knew your football history you'd know Fontes took Sanders out in those situations because he didn't feel Sanders's running style fit those situations - he wasn't a hit the hole, drive the pile and gain 2 yards type of back. So Fontes would put clowns in like Eric Lynch, Derrick Moore and later Corey Schlesinger to gain short yards, idiotically removing his best player from the game because sometimes Barry would lose 5 yards trying to make something happen. Eveyone else knew it was a bad idea, but Fontes loved it. It also had NOTHING to do with saving "wear and tear" on Barry as evidenced by the subsequent high number of carries Sanders had each year after 1993 for the rest of his career. Ask a Lions fan about this and other Fontes foibles some time.And this doesn't even begin to address Emmitt Smith's history which also goes compeletely against your argument, but it's obvious you've had enough. You've failed to prove any point whatsoever except that you don't seem to know much about NFL history, or how running backs work. Thus it's not surprising you've decided to give up responding - that's the appropriate thing to do when you've got nothing to support the points you're making, are totally unable to offer valid counter arguments to the many facts and explanations raised against your contention and your argument has failed. Sorry if you feel insulted, though I don't really know where I did so - if I did say anything insulting, it's pretty mild compared to much of the stuff that goes down around here, you might want to grow a thicker skin. No hard feelings here - better luck next time I guess?

 

[cstu]

C'mon cstu- that isn't what i'm saying. If you went back and read my earlier posts in this never ending thread, my original question was - why is LT seemingly the consensus pick for #1 RB when he has never been #1 in fantasy points, his production dropped off quite a bit last year, he's had 200+ more carries in the last 4 years than any other back and alot of these guys that run alot and hard seem to breakdown somewhat in their 4th and 5th years. He's a great back of course but I just don't see him as being so clearly dominant as to merit the unanimity he's receiving. I compared him to Sanders for the reason I stated in my last post, because every one was making noise that LT was immune to these problems because he ran so slippery and therefore didn't get hit as much as other guys. As I say, just for comparisons sake and because the other people on the thread thought it relevant( even though you and I know they're different people ) I said Sanders had 200+ fewer carries his first 3 years and broke down in the 4th enough so his production dropped 20% and then another 30% in the 5th year. LTs production dropped 18% last year, his 4th.I've said several times we all know a variety of factors come into play when production dips, but it seems to me this is a material one and it appears that LT is a prime candidate for it this year, and may in fact have started a drop off last year. Is this definitive? Of course not. Is it something to consider before taking LT #1? I think so.

 

[delusional]

I was. He been hurt towards the end the past two years so i went alexander

Oh well, still made the championship

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

some people just think way too much. Classic over analysis.

LT has been and will remain the clear cut #1 pick this year, last year and next year.