Anyone have a FF trade value chart? (1 Viewer)

[Jeff Pasquino]

No, it isn't that I have something against the calculator I just don't agree with the methodology I see in it. If I misunderstood your use of the NFL draft pick chart from going over the article, definite apologies, my bad.But I just don't get this line of thinking, and yes, will argue against it.

Even if I had those results and those numbers, you still wouldn't be happy as you would then want to put names and faces with the picks and then decide on value. I've said, time and again, you can't have a calculator that changes every year and in every crop of new rookies. A Reggie Bush year is different than a Calvin Johnson year. Some drafts are rich at RB, some at WR. If your leagues treat them differently, trades won't align well to the calculator at least one of those two times.

You say this like it is a bad thing. Isn't getting at the ACTUAL RIGHT answer, or as close as possible, the goal of doing something like this? Shouldn't we strive to make a calculator that in the months leading up to the Reggie Bush year, reflect the Reggie Bush year and don't give the same answer as the following year when as you point out, things have changed?The same goes for the redraft calculator. Do you really think the vast majority of use it will see between now and the start of the season is not for players that we have projections for already that can be built into this year's version?I can tell you got upset if I misunderstood how you used the NFL chart, for which I'll openly apologize again. But I don't understand what the motivation is to not want to include projections for the year after the time they start existing. Short of having total precognition that's about the best set of input data we could hope for, isn't it? Why would we not want to include that? Would we not have gotten better results in the preseason before Peyton's record-setting year if the values for that year's redraft included the fact that history suggested we could expect around a 10% surge in QB scoring due to the rule change?It isn't about liking it or not liking it, it's about using the best information to feed into it that we can.

Greg,The difference here is that the calculators and charts that exist out there are STATIC, not DYNAMIC.Your request to change it YOY based on the personnel available is an admirable goal, but that's a research project I'm not prepared to do.The article you posted was a good one (the long PDF study) - I've seen it before and I'll print it out and read it sometime once again.Within that study, they re-did the values over two different timeframes (Figure 4, Page 43 of 59), tracking values from 88-96 and then 97-04. What the calculators, including mine, attempt to do is provide a baseline for each year without having to do annual analysis - that is, it can be used as a model to predict the future based on what was observed in the past. Will there be variation? Certainly. Just like any year would vary, so will the inherent (perceived or actual) values for each draft pick in each year.The calculator is a tool for a baseline for each year to give you a guide BEFORE you have any data for that particular year. You use it as a starting point, and then if you believe that Reggie Bush is an above-average #1 pick, you tweak the results accordingly. Alternatively, if you think that the Top 3 rooks this year are close but a huge tier above the rest, you can tweak the answers as well.The calculators are not meant to be an annual exercise in figuring out the answers. It is a guide / model for which you can use either as a reference, a basis of comparison, or as a starting point for valuations.I hope that makes sense.

 

[Biabreakable]

GregR,

My position has not changed at all and the arguments for the calculator, which have been anything but convincing to me when compared to my own methods of using ADP, historical study and projections for rookies each years draft class.

They have not broken me at all.

I was merely being tactful with DMT because if he or someone else chooses to use a calculator to look at approximate pick values I can work with them and thier perceptions. I am still going to use my own methods of evaluation regardless. If the pick calculator gives an answer that I see working in my favor and my trade partner believes in the calculator then yes I am going to use that to my advantage. Which is what I told Jeff I would do as well. Although not without some humor for me in looking at a flawed tool compared to actual analysis.

The only thing that has changed in my perspective from start of this thread to my post previous to this one is how I could avoid telling my compitition about me and my ideas when explaining to them reasoning for my trade offers and what I am asking them to give me by instead presenting them this calculator tool that does no analysis for them. I am not sure if I would do that because I have said I do not really believe in the calculator and so it would be hard for me to sell it to my compition because of that. However I do see some utility in being able to keep my ideas more on the low low and letting them play with this tool instead.

That being said I do not think that Jeff has been saying that the calculator is gospel or that it has all the answers or even the best answers. But rather that it is a tool that can be looked at to check other ideas against and for some perhaps a starting point for creating initial trade proposals.

This tool is static. It does not get into the meat of specific dynamics for each year. It cannot know which underclassmen will declare and other very significant details concerning relative strength of each draft class, the opportunities available in the NFL at the time where specific players will ultimatly be drafted and by what teams.

As a static tool I can see it possibly being more useful in comparison of picks one year out where the specific players involved are unknown and one is unable to do such detailed analysis. However I still would not use it for that because there is nothing in it that shows the relative value of a pick in 07 to a pick in 08 where the 07 pick is obviously (at least to me) more valuable than the 08 pick because of its utility and in the case of picks used on talented players that will take time to develop.. the sooner that development will take place and those players can actualy be useful. However with all of those things in mind a static tool such as this calculator can give an idea (although not as good of an idea as one that is more result based) of some abstract relative value for picks in years ahead when you cannot know which possible players will be available or how good those players are (although I do scout ahead in a general way to answer those questions).

Would love to read the article you linked GregR however my adobe reader seems to be incompatable with it and the link causes my browser to crash when I try to access it. Sounds like some good stuff in there.

Finaly my position is still the same. Extensive data mining of ADP and performance results is the way to creating a better tool. I do not need such a tool as long as I do not suffer from amnesia in the near future.

 

[GregR_2]

No, it isn't that I have something against the calculator I just don't agree with the methodology I see in it. If I misunderstood your use of the NFL draft pick chart from going over the article, definite apologies, my bad.

But I just don't get this line of thinking, and yes, will argue against it.

Even if I had those results and those numbers, you still wouldn't be happy as you would then want to put names and faces with the picks and then decide on value. I've said, time and again, you can't have a calculator that changes every year and in every crop of new rookies. A Reggie Bush year is different than a Calvin Johnson year. Some drafts are rich at RB, some at WR. If your leagues treat them differently, trades won't align well to the calculator at least one of those two times.

You say this like it is a bad thing. Isn't getting at the ACTUAL RIGHT answer, or as close as possible, the goal of doing something like this? Shouldn't we strive to make a calculator that in the months leading up to the Reggie Bush year, reflect the Reggie Bush year and don't give the same answer as the following year when as you point out, things have changed?The same goes for the redraft calculator. Do you really think the vast majority of use it will see between now and the start of the season is not for players that we have projections for already that can be built into this year's version?

I can tell you got upset if I misunderstood how you used the NFL chart, for which I'll openly apologize again. But I don't understand what the motivation is to not want to include projections for the year after the time they start existing. Short of having total precognition that's about the best set of input data we could hope for, isn't it? Why would we not want to include that? Would we not have gotten better results in the preseason before Peyton's record-setting year if the values for that year's redraft included the fact that history suggested we could expect around a 10% surge in QB scoring due to the rule change?

It isn't about liking it or not liking it, it's about using the best information to feed into it that we can.

Greg,The difference here is that the calculators and charts that exist out there are STATIC, not DYNAMIC.

Your request to change it YOY based on the personnel available is an admirable goal, but that's a research project I'm not prepared to do.

The article you posted was a good one (the long PDF study) - I've seen it before and I'll print it out and read it sometime once again.

Within that study, they re-did the values over two different timeframes (Figure 4, Page 43 of 59), tracking values from 88-96 and then 97-04.

What the calculators, including mine, attempt to do is provide a baseline for each year without having to do annual analysis - that is, it can be used as a model to predict the future based on what was observed in the past. Will there be variation? Certainly. Just like any year would vary, so will the inherent (perceived or actual) values for each draft pick in each year.

The calculator is a tool for a baseline for each year to give you a guide BEFORE you have any data for that particular year. You use it as a starting point, and then if you believe that Reggie Bush is an above-average #1 pick, you tweak the results accordingly. Alternatively, if you think that the Top 3 rooks this year are close but a huge tier above the rest, you can tweak the answers as well.

The calculators are not meant to be an annual exercise in figuring out the answers. It is a guide / model for which you can use either as a reference, a basis of comparison, or as a starting point for valuations.

I hope that makes sense.

It makes sense and I agree with you in that that is what the current calculators are. But if that is the case and they aren't going to be modified, they need to be presented that way. And they aren't right now. Take your paragraph above I put in italics. There's nothing remotely similar to it on the redraft calculator page. Either this should be a clearly documented part of the usage instructions, or the app should give the user the answer he thought he was getting because it doesnt' say otherwise. Right? But we need to fix it one way or the other.VBD had the same exact problem. A lot of the criticism of the app was because users who didn't have a deeper understanding of the topic misused it and drafted straight down the cheatsheet. I think the documentation for it was and still is largely to blame. Finally the Draft Dominator app came out that included the kinds of things the VBD app didn't and fixed the problem (mostly) by replacing the old app and giving people something closer to a cheatsheet they could really follow.

You know my preference on the matter. But if that isn't going to get done, then let's document this stuff as to how you just said it should and shouldn't be used. Because right now the only thing to prevent this kind of misuse (and I argue the misuse is the vast majority of use in the preseason), would be people jumping into threads where someone asks for such a calculator, and explains how to use it. The docs for the calculators aren't relaying this info on their own.

The best part of FBG has always been that the site has not just provided tools, but taught people how to understand the concepts and how to apply them. That's all I'm asking for here, is to present these tools in the way that leads to their most correct use, and avoids misuse.

That make sense?

 

[Jeff Pasquino]

No, it isn't that I have something against the calculator I just don't agree with the methodology I see in it. If I misunderstood your use of the NFL draft pick chart from going over the article, definite apologies, my bad.

But I just don't get this line of thinking, and yes, will argue against it.

Even if I had those results and those numbers, you still wouldn't be happy as you would then want to put names and faces with the picks and then decide on value. I've said, time and again, you can't have a calculator that changes every year and in every crop of new rookies. A Reggie Bush year is different than a Calvin Johnson year. Some drafts are rich at RB, some at WR. If your leagues treat them differently, trades won't align well to the calculator at least one of those two times.

You say this like it is a bad thing. Isn't getting at the ACTUAL RIGHT answer, or as close as possible, the goal of doing something like this? Shouldn't we strive to make a calculator that in the months leading up to the Reggie Bush year, reflect the Reggie Bush year and don't give the same answer as the following year when as you point out, things have changed?The same goes for the redraft calculator. Do you really think the vast majority of use it will see between now and the start of the season is not for players that we have projections for already that can be built into this year's version?

I can tell you got upset if I misunderstood how you used the NFL chart, for which I'll openly apologize again. But I don't understand what the motivation is to not want to include projections for the year after the time they start existing. Short of having total precognition that's about the best set of input data we could hope for, isn't it? Why would we not want to include that? Would we not have gotten better results in the preseason before Peyton's record-setting year if the values for that year's redraft included the fact that history suggested we could expect around a 10% surge in QB scoring due to the rule change?

It isn't about liking it or not liking it, it's about using the best information to feed into it that we can.

Greg,The difference here is that the calculators and charts that exist out there are STATIC, not DYNAMIC.

Your request to change it YOY based on the personnel available is an admirable goal, but that's a research project I'm not prepared to do.

The article you posted was a good one (the long PDF study) - I've seen it before and I'll print it out and read it sometime once again.

Within that study, they re-did the values over two different timeframes (Figure 4, Page 43 of 59), tracking values from 88-96 and then 97-04.

What the calculators, including mine, attempt to do is provide a baseline for each year without having to do annual analysis - that is, it can be used as a model to predict the future based on what was observed in the past. Will there be variation? Certainly. Just like any year would vary, so will the inherent (perceived or actual) values for each draft pick in each year.

The calculator is a tool for a baseline for each year to give you a guide BEFORE you have any data for that particular year. You use it as a starting point, and then if you believe that Reggie Bush is an above-average #1 pick, you tweak the results accordingly. Alternatively, if you think that the Top 3 rooks this year are close but a huge tier above the rest, you can tweak the answers as well.

The calculators are not meant to be an annual exercise in figuring out the answers. It is a guide / model for which you can use either as a reference, a basis of comparison, or as a starting point for valuations.

I hope that makes sense.

It makes sense and I agree with you in that that is what the current calculators are. But if that is the case and they aren't going to be modified, they need to be presented that way. And they aren't right now. Take your paragraph above I put in italics. There's nothing remotely similar to it on the redraft calculator page. Either this should be a clearly documented part of the usage instructions, or the app should give the user the answer he thought he was getting because it doesnt' say otherwise. Right? But we need to fix it one way or the other.VBD had the same exact problem. A lot of the criticism of the app was because users who didn't have a deeper understanding of the topic misused it and drafted straight down the cheatsheet. I think the documentation for it was and still is largely to blame. Finally the Draft Dominator app came out that included the kinds of things the VBD app didn't and fixed the problem (mostly) by replacing the old app and giving people something closer to a cheatsheet they could really follow.

You know my preference on the matter. But if that isn't going to get done, then let's document this stuff as to how you just said it should and shouldn't be used. Because right now the only thing to prevent this kind of misuse (and I argue the misuse is the vast majority of use in the preseason), would be people jumping into threads where someone asks for such a calculator, and explains how to use it. The docs for the calculators aren't relaying this info on their own.

The best part of FBG has always been that the site has not just provided tools, but taught people how to understand the concepts and how to apply them. That's all I'm asking for here, is to present these tools in the way that leads to their most correct use, and avoids misuse.

That make sense?

I agree that we have some of the best tools around, and over the best 2 years we've made strides in letting people know more about them and how to use them.For the first time, we have a disclaimer on the rankings pages as to how the scoring system works and what the basis of rankings are for each position. That helps.

We've also added articles in the Mag and also on the site about the different tools, and we do add more tools each year.

I agree that illustrating how and when to use these tools is crucial, and I think we are doing a better job in the past two seasons.

That said, I agree with your general statement about the calculator (or ANY calc, for that matter). A general statement about the values being static would help - yet that seems rather obvious to me. All the calcs and pick value charts are static, YOY. I'm not sure what the value added would be to state that specifically.

Giving instances to use the calculators, now that would be valuable. I'll take that under advisement.

 

[Toads]

Well, I'm not as easily convinced as Biabreakable. They broke you, Bia!

Jeff, the calculator you produced could best be summarized as showing "these are how fantasy owners tend to value picks, but not necessarily how YOU should value them". Though, I have one additional beef that if that is what you want to produce, you shouldn't base it off of NFL GM's perceptions of NFL draft picks, because those are not necessarily the same as fantasy owner's perceptions of fantasy draft picks. If you want to produce that chart, then find a bunch of dynasty leagues, group them by similar league parameters, and do some curve fits to fit the actual trades that have been made. Or use some other similar method, but at least use actual fantasy trades as the input since the NFL and fantasy aren't necessarily the same in this respect.

The second point I'd have is that if indeed that is what you're going to make, you should be clear about what it is showing. Because I think I can safely say 99% of FF owners when told something is a draft pick value chart, believe it reflects the value of the pick to their team as it relates to their team's scoring bottom line.

What myself and Bia and some others have said is that to produce the second chart, the one that tells you the value to your team, you probably need to work off of historical data for fantasy player success, similar to how Massey and Thaler worked off of historical NFL player success taken with each pick to find the value of the pick. You need to find a way to roll up all the factors you think are important into a quantified number that is the expected value of taking a player with the pick and having him on your team. You can't predict it perfectly and no one expects it to be. If they can predict the players perfectly they shouldn't be using the chart anyway, they should be using the players like Bia did when he came into the thread. But to get to the best answer you can for when you can't directly predict the players, you need to use some historical results that apply to the fantasy situation.

We're approaching this from two different angles:1.) Your's being some relationship to a subjective reality, either perceived or actual, based on FFB experience, and

2.) Mine, based on statistical curves and mathematical realities.

I my way of approaching this calculator deal, it's a mathematical model that stripped down and made available based on objective mathematical certainty. In your way, it's tied to some NFL this and FFB actuality that....in short to some perceived, variable, subjective evaluation of "improving my team".

I'm much more concerned with trading into places that I can target players at there lowest expected budget range....I play in a lot of HAFA leagues, salary cap leagues. The challenge is to 1.) make a trade with a motivated owner, 2.) do so in a short time span, 3.) share information that leads to the trade and 4.) get the trade done.

When I re-read your second chart analogy, I'm left with the value to my team deal and I'm lead to ask the only question that remains: "What value are we talking about, either preceived or real, except a list that contains numerical draft draft choices and their relative slotting with in a FFB Dynasty Rookie Draft?

Answer: the draft choices are the reality....numerical reality and they are the assets that we convert to the preceived value....that being the players.

When you started working the Rookies for the '07 draft, back in Jan.-Feb., you were trying to figure out which players were acceptable to improve your team. Come June-July, you'll convert whatever draft choices you've managed to accumulate into the subjective reality that you place into "improiving your team"....into players.

How you convert that objective reality (the choices) into the subjective reality (the players) to produce the subjective result (improving your team) is up to you....making the choice based on what's available when you convert the choice to the player.

What's happeing here is the availability of different choices, different availabilities, different results....all based on the trading of the objective reality (the choices).

Nothing more....nothing less.

We're not trading in Subjective Realities (the Players). We're trading in Objective Realities (the Draft Choices).

And we're using this calculator deal as the hidden weapon to get a deal done.

This has turned into a pretty good discussion.

 

[shamrock84]

Just curious... did a chart ever get made or is it just the calculator? I'd really like a pick value chart for use in my upcoming initial dynasty draft.

 

[shamrock84]

 

[GregR_2]

Just curious... did a chart ever get made or is it just the calculator? I'd really like a pick value chart for use in my upcoming initial dynasty draft.

I'm not clear what you're asking, so here's the complete answer as far as I know it.There is no calculator for initial dynasty drafts. There is a calculator for ROOKIE-only dynasty drafts, and one for non-dynasty redrafts. There is not, that I know of, a chart for any of those 3. Though if someone wanted a chart from either existing calculator it would probably take all of 10 minutes to plug in all the picks and copy the results over to a spreadsheet and print it out.If you want a chart for the value of picks in your initial dynasty draft... don't. Project where you think each player should go and use the real players instead. There's no need to use a pseudo-value for a pick when you can work with the projections for the players that should be taken with them. Work out where YOU think they should be taken, and also work out where you think they may actually go when you account for differences between your beliefs and the rest of your league. This will help you identify good values where a player you like may slip. And then from that, using the players that would be involved, determine if the trade helps your team or not.If you want the chart for trading right now of 2008 (or beyond) rookie picks , there is Jeff's calculator which you can use to make the chart yourself. You can even get the first 36 pick's values in one swoop if you go to the reverse dynasty tab. The calculator appears to handle more picks than 36, but it doesn't make the values available that I can see other than entering the picks in the main tab.

 

[shamrock84]

Just curious... did a chart ever get made or is it just the calculator? I'd really like a pick value chart for use in my upcoming initial dynasty draft.

If you want a chart for the value of picks in your initial dynasty draft... don't. Project where you think each player should go and use the real players instead. There's no need to use a pseudo-value for a pick when you can work with the projections for the players that should be taken with them. Work out where YOU think they should be taken, and also work out where you think they may actually go when you account for differences between your beliefs and the rest of your league. This will help you identify good values where a player you like may slip. And then from that, using the players that would be involved, determine if the trade helps your team or not.

Thanks for the response GregR. This is the chart I'm looking for and I thought that was the point of this thread although I'm easily confused... I'll not be using the chart for personal use but the others in my league want something like the NFL Draft Chart so that they know the trade they're making isn't totally off the wall. Without that I don't think they'll be willing to trade with me. I just wanted to get some rough estimate of what is fair and what isn't so they know I'm not cheating them (although I'll still try to do so ).ETA: Here's what led me to believe we'd have something concrete...

I made the charts and it'll be posted shortly to the site.

 

[Jeff Pasquino]

[ETA: Here's what led me to believe we'd have something concrete...

I made the charts and it'll be posted shortly to the site.

The charts I made were purely for redraft, and was just a pour out of the Dodds' calculator into a formatted sheet.Dynasty value charts would vary widely - but a first guess would be to take the redraft values and double them and use that for an approximation.

 

[Biabreakable]

I am reluctant to post this.. but..

spec1alk has been compiling ADP data for the last 3 years. You can access this data here: http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index...howtopic=322722 in his signature.

This project would still be another 3-4 years away however I could see this data being used as a basis for a results based analysis of rookie draft pick value by ADP. And I am curious about what the results may be and how that would compare with what Jeff allready has in place.

The ADP data is useful in and of itself. I just see even more potential for using this information and breaking the code on the value of rookie draft picks. If we had a larget spectrum of drafts (in a consistent league system) for years prior to 2005 (like going back to 2001) then we could allready begin breaking it down. But the rookies drafted in 2005 still need a few more years of thier careers before we can pass judgement on thier performance yet. So this is what I think could be done for 2010 season is use this ADP from 2005 and then look at each players career from VBD perpective and begin to tell the tale of the value of each pick. this would then be built upon in following years as each ADP class has been given sufficient time to have thier careers more defined.

I happen to have my own leagues tracked back to 2001 and experience with league drafts that goes all the way back to 1995 (leagues have since disbanded) so long enough to see several players entire careers run thier course. But I think having a larger set of data such as spec1alk has done with 48 leagues to draw from to have a diverse enough sample to be relied upon for ADP.

Just somthing to think about....

 

[Jeff Pasquino]

I am reluctant to post this.. but..

spec1alk has been compiling ADP data for the last 3 years. You can access this data here: http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index...howtopic=322722 in his signature.

This project would still be another 3-4 years away however I could see this data being used as a basis for a results based analysis of rookie draft pick value by ADP. And I am curious about what the results may be and how that would compare with what Jeff allready has in place.

The ADP data is useful in and of itself. I just see even more potential for using this information and breaking the code on the value of rookie draft picks. If we had a larget spectrum of drafts (in a consistent league system) for years prior to 2005 (like going back to 2001) then we could allready begin breaking it down. But the rookies drafted in 2005 still need a few more years of thier careers before we can pass judgement on thier performance yet. So this is what I think could be done for 2010 season is use this ADP from 2005 and then look at each players career from VBD perpective and begin to tell the tale of the value of each pick. this would then be built upon in following years as each ADP class has been given sufficient time to have thier careers more defined.

I happen to have my own leagues tracked back to 2001 and experience with league drafts that goes all the way back to 1995 (leagues have since disbanded) so long enough to see several players entire careers run thier course. But I think having a larger set of data such as spec1alk has done with 48 leagues to draw from to have a diverse enough sample to be relied upon for ADP.

Just somthing to think about....

This sounds very similar to beto's study - did you read that?

 

[Biabreakable]

I am reluctant to post this.. but..

spec1alk has been compiling ADP data for the last 3 years. You can access this data here: http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index...howtopic=322722 in his signature.

This project would still be another 3-4 years away however I could see this data being used as a basis for a results based analysis of rookie draft pick value by ADP. And I am curious about what the results may be and how that would compare with what Jeff allready has in place.

The ADP data is useful in and of itself. I just see even more potential for using this information and breaking the code on the value of rookie draft picks. If we had a larget spectrum of drafts (in a consistent league system) for years prior to 2005 (like going back to 2001) then we could allready begin breaking it down. But the rookies drafted in 2005 still need a few more years of thier careers before we can pass judgement on thier performance yet. So this is what I think could be done for 2010 season is use this ADP from 2005 and then look at each players career from VBD perpective and begin to tell the tale of the value of each pick. this would then be built upon in following years as each ADP class has been given sufficient time to have thier careers more defined.

I happen to have my own leagues tracked back to 2001 and experience with league drafts that goes all the way back to 1995 (leagues have since disbanded) so long enough to see several players entire careers run thier course. But I think having a larger set of data such as spec1alk has done with 48 leagues to draw from to have a diverse enough sample to be relied upon for ADP.

Just somthing to think about....

This sounds very similar to beto's study - did you read that?

Man you have ADD. I have mentioned beto's study multiple times and I think earlier on in this very thread.This would be better than beto's study because it would involve more than just one league thus incorporating ADP data.

 

[Jeff Pasquino]

Man you have ADD.

I forget how many times I've said that about myself, which probably goes right back to the evidence against me....

 

[GregR_2]

I am reluctant to post this.. but..

spec1alk has been compiling ADP data for the last 3 years. You can access this data here: http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index...howtopic=322722 in his signature.

This project would still be another 3-4 years away however I could see this data being used as a basis for a results based analysis of rookie draft pick value by ADP. And I am curious about what the results may be and how that would compare with what Jeff allready has in place.

The ADP data is useful in and of itself. I just see even more potential for using this information and breaking the code on the value of rookie draft picks. If we had a larget spectrum of drafts (in a consistent league system) for years prior to 2005 (like going back to 2001) then we could allready begin breaking it down. But the rookies drafted in 2005 still need a few more years of thier careers before we can pass judgement on thier performance yet. So this is what I think could be done for 2010 season is use this ADP from 2005 and then look at each players career from VBD perpective and begin to tell the tale of the value of each pick. this would then be built upon in following years as each ADP class has been given sufficient time to have thier careers more defined.

I happen to have my own leagues tracked back to 2001 and experience with league drafts that goes all the way back to 1995 (leagues have since disbanded) so long enough to see several players entire careers run thier course. But I think having a larger set of data such as spec1alk has done with 48 leagues to draw from to have a diverse enough sample to be relied upon for ADP.

Just somthing to think about....

One thing I struggle with is how much data we need to get an accurate assessment. I really need to find a website with a good statistics course that covers the areas I'm deficient in.

 

[Biabreakable]

I am reluctant to post this.. but..

spec1alk has been compiling ADP data for the last 3 years. You can access this data here: http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index...howtopic=322722 in his signature.

This project would still be another 3-4 years away however I could see this data being used as a basis for a results based analysis of rookie draft pick value by ADP. And I am curious about what the results may be and how that would compare with what Jeff allready has in place.

The ADP data is useful in and of itself. I just see even more potential for using this information and breaking the code on the value of rookie draft picks. If we had a larget spectrum of drafts (in a consistent league system) for years prior to 2005 (like going back to 2001) then we could allready begin breaking it down. But the rookies drafted in 2005 still need a few more years of thier careers before we can pass judgement on thier performance yet. So this is what I think could be done for 2010 season is use this ADP from 2005 and then look at each players career from VBD perpective and begin to tell the tale of the value of each pick. this would then be built upon in following years as each ADP class has been given sufficient time to have thier careers more defined.

I happen to have my own leagues tracked back to 2001 and experience with league drafts that goes all the way back to 1995 (leagues have since disbanded) so long enough to see several players entire careers run thier course. But I think having a larger set of data such as spec1alk has done with 48 leagues to draw from to have a diverse enough sample to be relied upon for ADP.

Just somthing to think about....

One thing I struggle with is how much data we need to get an accurate assessment. I really need to find a website with a good statistics course that covers the areas I'm deficient in.

Well as far as sample size goes it would of course be more ideal to have a sample size that was 1000 or more drafts to have more reliable results. However I think it would also be important that each of these samples have the same conditions in place such as scoring system number of starters ect. So to get such a large sample using the same conditions is not really feasible.What is available due to spec1alk's work is 48 leagues all using the same scoring system and conditions. So while 48 may not be as large of a sample size as we would like it is definitly much better than a sample size of one league. And that all 48 leagues use the same conditions gives it a accurate control group as well.

 

[shamrock84]

I am reluctant to post this.. but..

spec1alk has been compiling ADP data for the last 3 years. You can access this data here: http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index...howtopic=322722 in his signature.

This project would still be another 3-4 years away however I could see this data being used as a basis for a results based analysis of rookie draft pick value by ADP. And I am curious about what the results may be and how that would compare with what Jeff allready has in place.

The ADP data is useful in and of itself. I just see even more potential for using this information and breaking the code on the value of rookie draft picks. If we had a larget spectrum of drafts (in a consistent league system) for years prior to 2005 (like going back to 2001) then we could allready begin breaking it down. But the rookies drafted in 2005 still need a few more years of thier careers before we can pass judgement on thier performance yet. So this is what I think could be done for 2010 season is use this ADP from 2005 and then look at each players career from VBD perpective and begin to tell the tale of the value of each pick. this would then be built upon in following years as each ADP class has been given sufficient time to have thier careers more defined.

I happen to have my own leagues tracked back to 2001 and experience with league drafts that goes all the way back to 1995 (leagues have since disbanded) so long enough to see several players entire careers run thier course. But I think having a larger set of data such as spec1alk has done with 48 leagues to draw from to have a diverse enough sample to be relied upon for ADP.

Just somthing to think about....

One thing I struggle with is how much data we need to get an accurate assessment. I really need to find a website with a good statistics course that covers the areas I'm deficient in.

Well as far as sample size goes it would of course be more ideal to have a sample size that was 1000 or more drafts to have more reliable results. However I think it would also be important that each of these samples have the same conditions in place such as scoring system number of starters ect. So to get such a large sample using the same conditions is not really feasible.What is available due to spec1alk's work is 48 leagues all using the same scoring system and conditions. So while 48 may not be as large of a sample size as we would like it is definitly much better than a sample size of one league. And that all 48 leagues use the same conditions gives it a accurate control group as well.

I wonder if any of the fantasy hosting sites would be able to organize this type of study. Many of them have hundreds (if not thousands) of leagues using the same scoring system (such as Yahoo!'s default scoring for example). Maybe you guys could do a study partnering up with another site? Not sure how much pull you have in the industry or what that'd take but it'd definitely be interesting and worthwhile!

 

[Biabreakable]

I am reluctant to post this.. but..

spec1alk has been compiling ADP data for the last 3 years. You can access this data here: http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index...howtopic=322722 in his signature.

This project would still be another 3-4 years away however I could see this data being used as a basis for a results based analysis of rookie draft pick value by ADP. And I am curious about what the results may be and how that would compare with what Jeff allready has in place.

The ADP data is useful in and of itself. I just see even more potential for using this information and breaking the code on the value of rookie draft picks. If we had a larget spectrum of drafts (in a consistent league system) for years prior to 2005 (like going back to 2001) then we could allready begin breaking it down. But the rookies drafted in 2005 still need a few more years of thier careers before we can pass judgement on thier performance yet. So this is what I think could be done for 2010 season is use this ADP from 2005 and then look at each players career from VBD perpective and begin to tell the tale of the value of each pick. this would then be built upon in following years as each ADP class has been given sufficient time to have thier careers more defined.

I happen to have my own leagues tracked back to 2001 and experience with league drafts that goes all the way back to 1995 (leagues have since disbanded) so long enough to see several players entire careers run thier course. But I think having a larger set of data such as spec1alk has done with 48 leagues to draw from to have a diverse enough sample to be relied upon for ADP.

Just somthing to think about....

One thing I struggle with is how much data we need to get an accurate assessment. I really need to find a website with a good statistics course that covers the areas I'm deficient in.

Well as far as sample size goes it would of course be more ideal to have a sample size that was 1000 or more drafts to have more reliable results. However I think it would also be important that each of these samples have the same conditions in place such as scoring system number of starters ect. So to get such a large sample using the same conditions is not really feasible.What is available due to spec1alk's work is 48 leagues all using the same scoring system and conditions. So while 48 may not be as large of a sample size as we would like it is definitly much better than a sample size of one league. And that all 48 leagues use the same conditions gives it a accurate control group as well.

I wonder if any of the fantasy hosting sites would be able to organize this type of study. Many of them have hundreds (if not thousands) of leagues using the same scoring system (such as Yahoo!'s default scoring for example). Maybe you guys could do a study partnering up with another site? Not sure how much pull you have in the industry or what that'd take but it'd definitely be interesting and worthwhile!

I do not know of any serious long standing dynasty leagues hosted by yahoo. I know personaly the only time I have participated in a yahoo draft is for mock draft in redraft format.While there is a large sample size the quality of the sample and the diversity of the knowledge base of those who participate is much more questionable. So unless I am mistaken and there are thousands of long standing dynasty leagues hosted on yahoo that could be used as a sample I do not see this as a viable source.

 

[GregR_2]

I'm more concerned about getting a spread of years. As in, I'd rather have 5 league's drafts over 9 years than I would have 15 league's drafts over 3 years. The differences in the player pool each year I would think will outweigh the variation in draft position.

For example, if you have 15 leagues over 3 years and LT is one of those years, the top picks are going to have a higher value than you'd realistically expect to see there since LT seems to be that once or twice in a generation guy so far.

Though, changes in offensive philosophy is also something to consider. I mean, the more leagues and years the better, but I'd worry about having too few years in such a study.

 

[Biabreakable]

I'm more concerned about getting a spread of years. As in, I'd rather have 5 league's drafts over 9 years than I would have 15 league's drafts over 3 years. The differences in the player pool each year I would think will outweigh the variation in draft position.For example, if you have 15 leagues over 3 years and LT is one of those years, the top picks are going to have a higher value than you'd realistically expect to see there since LT seems to be that once or twice in a generation guy so far.Though, changes in offensive philosophy is also something to consider. I mean, the more leagues and years the better, but I'd worry about having too few years in such a study.

You have a very good point and I agree with you. This is the foundation that I make most of my decisions based upon being involved in dynasty leagues streaching back to 1995. Those leagues have formed and disbanded over that time frame however and the scoring systems have not been the same.If spec1alk continues tracking drafts over the next 6 years then that data can begin to be used as a combination of the best of all worlds. Looks like we still have plenty of time before somthing like that can be made available though.

 

[GregR_2]

I'm more concerned about getting a spread of years. As in, I'd rather have 5 league's drafts over 9 years than I would have 15 league's drafts over 3 years. The differences in the player pool each year I would think will outweigh the variation in draft position.For example, if you have 15 leagues over 3 years and LT is one of those years, the top picks are going to have a higher value than you'd realistically expect to see there since LT seems to be that once or twice in a generation guy so far.Though, changes in offensive philosophy is also something to consider. I mean, the more leagues and years the better, but I'd worry about having too few years in such a study.

You have a very good point and I agree with you. This is the foundation that I make most of my decisions based upon being involved in dynasty leagues streaching back to 1995. Those leagues have formed and disbanded over that time frame however and the scoring systems have not been the same.If spec1alk continues tracking drafts over the next 6 years then that data can begin to be used as a combination of the best of all worlds. Looks like we still have plenty of time before somthing like that can be made available though.

I'd be interested in getting a copy or link to those league's drafts, and scoring systems, if possible. If you have them available and don't mind sharing, PM me?

 

[shamrock84]

If anyone is interested here's what I came up with using the calculator values and modifying them a bit to suit our 21 round draft/league needs. Before anyone overanalyzes it (ahem... GregR ) just know that it is what it is. Not a ton of historic info went into it or anything but it provides a nice baseline for those who wish to trade initial dynasty picks in my league. Thanks to all for your help!

 

[Jeff Pasquino]

If anyone is interested here's what I came up with using the calculator values and modifying them a bit to suit our 21 round draft/league needs. Before anyone overanalyzes it (ahem... GregR ) just know that it is what it is. Not a ton of historic info went into it or anything but it provides a nice baseline for those who wish to trade initial dynasty picks in my league. Thanks to all for your help!

What'd you use to make this as far as calculator settings?

 

[GregR_2]

If anyone is interested here's what I came up with using the calculator values and modifying them a bit to suit our 21 round draft/league needs. Before anyone overanalyzes it (ahem... GregR ) just know that it is what it is. Not a ton of historic info went into it or anything but it provides a nice baseline for those who wish to trade initial dynasty picks in my league. Thanks to all for your help!

...

The calculator is a tool for a baseline for each year to give you a guide BEFORE you have any data for that particular year.

...

 

[Toads]

If anyone is interested here's what I came up with using the calculator values and modifying them a bit to suit our 21 round draft/league needs. Before anyone overanalyzes it (ahem... GregR ) just know that it is what it is. Not a ton of historic info went into it or anything but it provides a nice baseline for those who wish to trade initial dynasty picks in my league. Thanks to all for your help!

...

The calculator is a tool for a baseline for each year to give you a guide BEFORE you have any data for that particular year.

...

Ah Ha!Motivation revealed.

Interesting to note that a "slight" case of the modified I, Me, Mines has provided for the unltimate culmination of this thread....and, that Not A Ton Of Information has gone into the slightly modified result.

Gee, if there's an opening in Your League, can I please be put on the waiting list?

If (and, I'm sure that it's only a matter of time as to when cause you'll run out of trading partners soon) I become a member, we can trade along your "slightly" modified guide lines.



Isn't that the purpose of this exercise....anyway?

 

[shamrock84]

If anyone is interested here's what I came up with using the calculator values and modifying them a bit to suit our 21 round draft/league needs. Before anyone overanalyzes it (ahem... GregR ) just know that it is what it is. Not a ton of historic info went into it or anything but it provides a nice baseline for those who wish to trade initial dynasty picks in my league. Thanks to all for your help!

...

The calculator is a tool for a baseline for each year to give you a guide BEFORE you have any data for that particular year.

...

Ah Ha!Motivation revealed.

Interesting to note that a "slight" case of the modified I, Me, Mines has provided for the unltimate culmination of this thread....and, that Not A Ton Of Information has gone into the slightly modified result.

Gee, if there's an opening in Your League, can I please be put on the waiting list?

If (and, I'm sure that it's only a matter of time as to when cause you'll run out of trading partners soon) I become a member, we can trade along your "slightly" modified guide lines.



Isn't that the purpose of this exercise....anyway?

WTF does this even mean?!?!? I'm not the originator of this thread and was only looking to see if I could get a rough idea of pick value in a chart form. Obviously I don't trade blindly based on the values but it provides a nice backdrop IMHO. I just asked if anyone already had a chart and when I found out that wasn't the case I created my own based on Pasquino's assitance. If you don't like the chart DON'T USE IT! If you can make a better chart be my guest. I'm not sure where your anger is coming from. Oh and I like the "Can I be in your league?" shtick. I've never actually heard that one before. Have a good season guy.

 

[Toads]

If anyone is interested here's what I came up with using the calculator values and modifying them a bit to suit our 21 round draft/league needs. Before anyone overanalyzes it (ahem... GregR ) just know that it is what it is. Not a ton of historic info went into it or anything but it provides a nice baseline for those who wish to trade initial dynasty picks in my league. Thanks to all for your help!

...

The calculator is a tool for a baseline for each year to give you a guide BEFORE you have any data for that particular year.

...

Ah Ha!Motivation revealed.

Interesting to note that a "slight" case of the modified I, Me, Mines has provided for the unltimate culmination of this thread....and, that Not A Ton Of Information has gone into the slightly modified result.

Gee, if there's an opening in Your League, can I please be put on the waiting list?

If (and, I'm sure that it's only a matter of time as to when cause you'll run out of trading partners soon) I become a member, we can trade along your "slightly" modified guide lines.



Isn't that the purpose of this exercise....anyway?

WTF does this even mean?!?!? I'm not the originator of this thread and was only looking to see if I could get a rough idea of pick value in a chart form. Obviously I don't trade blindly based on the values but it provides a nice backdrop IMHO. I just asked if anyone already had a chart and when I found out that wasn't the case I created my own based on Pasquino's assitance. If you don't like the chart DON'T USE IT! If you can make a better chart be my guest. I'm not sure where your anger is coming from. Oh and I like the "Can I be in your league?" shtick. I've never actually heard that one before. Have a good season guy.

And, I doubt that you'll hear it again, either.And besides, I only want to be on the waiting list.

Do the Bye Laws spell out the "Slightly Modified Trade Guidelines"? If not, please consider adding same for your league.....to facilitate trading and all.

 

[shamrock84]

If anyone is interested here's what I came up with using the calculator values and modifying them a bit to suit our 21 round draft/league needs. Before anyone overanalyzes it (ahem... GregR ) just know that it is what it is. Not a ton of historic info went into it or anything but it provides a nice baseline for those who wish to trade initial dynasty picks in my league. Thanks to all for your help!

...

The calculator is a tool for a baseline for each year to give you a guide BEFORE you have any data for that particular year.

...

Ah Ha!Motivation revealed.

Interesting to note that a "slight" case of the modified I, Me, Mines has provided for the unltimate culmination of this thread....and, that Not A Ton Of Information has gone into the slightly modified result.

Gee, if there's an opening in Your League, can I please be put on the waiting list?

If (and, I'm sure that it's only a matter of time as to when cause you'll run out of trading partners soon) I become a member, we can trade along your "slightly" modified guide lines.



Isn't that the purpose of this exercise....anyway?

WTF does this even mean?!?!? I'm not the originator of this thread and was only looking to see if I could get a rough idea of pick value in a chart form. Obviously I don't trade blindly based on the values but it provides a nice backdrop IMHO. I just asked if anyone already had a chart and when I found out that wasn't the case I created my own based on Pasquino's assitance. If you don't like the chart DON'T USE IT! If you can make a better chart be my guest. I'm not sure where your anger is coming from. Oh and I like the "Can I be in your league?" shtick. I've never actually heard that one before. Have a good season guy.

And, I doubt that you'll hear it again, either.And besides, I only want to be on the waiting list.

Do the Bye Laws spell out the "Slightly Modified Trade Guidelines"? If not, please consider adding same for your league.....to facilitate trading and all.

I honestly have no idea what you're talking about. Do you have a problem with the chart? Does my making this chart somehow make you a better fantasy player? Please explain...