anyone in the advertising or shipping business? (1 Viewer)

[tommyboy]

I have a question for you.   Are you seeing noticeable dropoffs so far in 2016?   curious....

 

[Doctor Detroit]

In danger of losing your UPS store job?

You're gonna have to start drinking Thunderbird again.   

 

[McGarnicle]

 

[tommyboy]

In danger of losing your UPS store job?

You're gonna have to start drinking Thunderbird again.   

I see reports about shipping like this http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/opinion/david-uren-economics/shipping-slumps-as-slowdown-in-global-trade-growth-bites/news-story/d24bcaa2596c456c8d45833769e91f14

And 

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-01-25/rogers-communications-cuts-200-media-jobs-on-advertising-slump

And I think those are recessionary canaries.  Just curious if anyone here is in those industries and would have a comment

 

[Gawain]

I am responsible for roughly 40-50 TEU a month to North America from China.

Rates are cratered right now. I've seen sub-1K rates Shanghai-->Long Beach.

Pre-CNY in 2015 I had numerous containers delayed. Pre-CNY in 2016 there were 0 demand issues.

 

[msommer]

I am responsible for roughly 40-50 TEU a month to North America from China.

Rates are cratered right now. I've seen sub-1K rates Shanghai-->Long Beach.

Pre-CNY in 2015 I had numerous containers delayed. Pre-CNY in 2016 there were 0 demand issues.

But capacity keeps going up so that is to be expected

 

[msommer]

I see reports about shipping like this http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/opinion/david-uren-economics/shipping-slumps-as-slowdown-in-global-trade-growth-bites/news-story/d24bcaa2596c456c8d45833769e91f14

And 

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-01-25/rogers-communications-cuts-200-media-jobs-on-advertising-slump

And I think those are recessionary canaries.  Just curious if anyone here is in those industries and would have a comment

The demand for transport is still growing. The supply of transport capacity is just bigger than the overall demand, despite slowsteaming etc. This is the case for both Dry Bulk and Container shipping. Specifically for the latter the continued glut of orders in the 14,000+ TEU range of vessels will make sure the imbalance remains in place through at least 2018/9 regardless of the growth rate of demand. So don't see articles as that linked above as miner's canaries for a recession.

Not saying that a recession is not coming, don't know either way, but shipping has effed up their own market with typical ship owner ordering exuberance, so you can't derive larger market trends from their slump