Anything worse than a player exploding (1 Viewer)

[shader]

I remember last pre-season, I was hanging out with some friends at night, and we had NFL Network on. I saw a taped Seahawks game and watched Justin Forsett. I was shocked at how good he looked. I had heard the name, but never paid much attention to him. He looked dynamite to me. Anyway, the next day I came onto this forum, and every mention of him was the same. Slow, small, bad situation, bad line, etc. Hardly saw a thing positive about him.

Well of course, that killed my enthusiasm, and I ended up passing on him in all leagues.

Now he's blown up and made it to the point where he's actually, in my opinion, quite overrated. Still, if I had listened to what my two eyes told me, I would have had him on the very cheap, and then had a tradeable asset.

Lesson learned? When I see a player and am convinced that the player has great talent, I need to go GET that player, and not bother looking for other people's opinions, reading about his situation, etc. ESPECIALLY when it comes to running backs. I think RB's are the easiest position to analyze, because we can see everything they do. It's hard to tell what's happening with receivers on most plays, so they can be difficult to analyze.

Bottom line. In dynasty, go get talented players and don't worry much about the "situation". Good players will find a way on the field.

 

[Banger]

Listen to others but trust your judgement. That's the fun of the game anyway (at least to me).

As far as liking a player only to watch them blow up, it happens all the time. I'll often try to pry the player away in a deal but sometimes it doesn't work out and you have to watch him produce on smeone elses squad for years. I'd imagine that will happen with F Jones this year. I've tried to swoop in several times but it hasn't worked out. I know if he gets nicked up I'll be right there to snatch him.

By and large you do want to go with talent. You deal the guys in good situations with less talent for guys in worse present situations with greater talent. It seems to be a recipe for longer term success.

 

[super sleeper]

I'm still kicking myself for passing over Jermichael Finley last year in a 5 man keeper with heavy TE scoring. I already had Gates and they shared a bye week last season, plus I had Greg Jennings and don't like having multiple receivers from the same team. I passed on Vincent Jackson, also, for this very reason.

It definitely made me rethink my draft strategy re: bye weeks and multiple players from the same team.

 

[bigmarc27]

This is the reason (among others) that I still plan on taking Spiller with the first pick in my rookie draft next week.

 

[Pickle Rody]

I thought Gates was going to break out in his rookie year - 2004. But since he was relatively unknown (and I mistakenly figured the guys playing in my main 5-player keeper league would be unaware of him) I waited too long to pull the trigger on draft day. He was taken just a few picks before me in a late round by a new owner of an expansion team. Fast forward to the end of the season, this new expansion owner beats me in the championship game....in large part due to Gates.