Chase Stuart
Footballguy
The last couple of years, a few of us staffers have been contributing to the NYT Fifth Down blog. I'll be doing an article every Tuesday during the season. This week: http://fifthdown.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/09/13/are-bills-that-good-and-chiefs-that-bad/?ref=football
Rest of article available at the link: http://fifthdown.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/09/13/are-bills-that-good-and-chiefs-that-bad/?ref=footballThis time last year, I wrote that an opening day loss wasn’t necessarily a harbinger of things to come. But Week 1 isn’t meaningless, and no team knows that better than the Chiefs. Last season, Kansas City pulled off the biggest upset in Week 1 and rode a hot start directly into a division championship.
This past weekend, no team exceeded expectations like the Buffalo Bills. The Bills were initially listed as 6.5-point underdogs to the Chiefs, although speculation about Matt Cassel’s injury drove the point spread down to 3.5 points by kickoff. But by either measure, a 34-point victory was nothing short of shocking. The Bills covered the point spread by either 40.5 or 37.5 points, depending on your perspective. The largest opening day “cover” in modern history came in 1997, when the Jets shocked the Seattle Seahawks, 41-3. The Jets were coming off a 1-15 season and were 6.5-point underdogs in Bill Parcells’ first game with the team. The season ultimately ended with a 9-7 mark.
From 1978 to 2010, only seven teams (1) were an underdog in their season opener, (2) covered the point spread by at least 30 points, and (3) won 6 or fewer games in the prior season. Five of those seven teams ended up winning at least half of their games, and two (the ‘00 Eagles and ‘06 Ravens) made the playoffs. The Bills have a good chance to run their record to 2-0, as the schedule makers did Al Davis’s team no favors. Oakland has to make a cross-country trip on a short week and play in Buffalo with a 1 p.m. kickoff. A win over the Raiders win would set the stage for the biggest game in Buffalo in years, a Week 3 showdown against the Patriots. So what was the key to the Bills’ success?
They’re not going to make anyone forget Troy Aikman, Emmitt Smith and Michael Irvin, but the Bills have a nice set of triplets. Ryan Fitzpatrick was flawless against the Chiefs and passed for four touchdowns; since the start of last season, Fitzpatrick and Tom Brady are the only quarterbacks with three games with four passing touchdowns or more.