Are we all sleeping on Jon Kitna? (1 Viewer)

[BigRed]

Kitna has already been a Top 10 QB playing for two of the most medicre teams in recent memory in the Seahawks and the Bengals (although both were good last year).

The 99 Seahawks were led by future HOFers Sean Dawkins and Derrick Mayes. I don't see how they would be classified as far superior to what the Lions have to work with (neither one had 1,000 receiving yards that season).

Probably a coin flip, but that was 7 yrs ago and also the only year outside of CIN 03 that he was worth 2 flying whatevers. Again as a backup FF QB he might be bearable, but I think there will be better choices in our draft and I wouldn't want to find out.

Also Trent Green and Bulger have IMO easily proven it isn't simply the coach/system as they have gone on and done well elsewhere.

Warner? People seem to forget he had exactly a whopping 2 big years and IMO was much more a product of having guys like Faulk and Holt around than any brilliant coaching.

Amazingly, Martz is STILL being overrated.

 

[David Yudkin]

When Martz first came to the Rams, the team offensive totals went from 4,895 total yards and 24 total TD in 1991 to 5,081 total yards and 35 total TD in 1992.

For those that don't remember, when Martz took over as WR coach in 1995, Isaac Bruce's numbers went from 21-272-3 to 119-1781-13.

When Martz returned to St. Luois in 1999, the Rams offense increased from 4,766 total yards and 29 total TD to 6,639 total yards and 55 TD.

The Redskins did not meet with the same success, ads their numbers dipped slightly when Martz arrived, falling from 5,363/39 to 5,196/34, but that had a lot to do with RB Terry Allen getting hurt and slipping from 1547/21 to 896/5.

 

[David Yudkin]

Kitna has already been a Top 10 QB playing for two of the most medicre teams in recent memory in the Seahawks and the Bengals (although both were good last year).

The 99 Seahawks were led by future HOFers Sean Dawkins and Derrick Mayes.  I don't see how they would be classified as far superior to what the Lions have to work with (neither one had 1,000 receiving yards that season).

Probably a coin flip, but that was 7 yrs ago and also the only year outside of CIN 03 that he was worth 2 flying whatevers. Again as a backup FF QB he might be bearable, but I think there will be better choices in our draft and I wouldn't want to find out.

Also Trent Green and Bulger have IMO easily proven it isn't simply the coach/system as they have gone on and done well elsewhere.

Warner? People seem to forget he had exactly a whopping 2 big years and IMO was much more a product of having guys like Faulk and Holt around than any brilliant coaching.

Amazingly, Martz is STILL being overrated.

Bulger stayed in STL and ran essentially the Martz system throughout. Green moved on to KC and teamed up with Vermeil again, which while not the same system as the Rams still had elements of the one Vermeil ran in STL.Maybe the league has caught up to Martz. Maybe the 99-01 Rams were just a lot more talented than the competition. Maybe the Lions will continue to be mediocre. But it's hard to imagine the offense in Detroit being WORSE with Martz there. Last year at this time, Harrington had an ADP od QB22.

 

[BigRed]

I don't think it will be worse, and probably at least somewhat better.

And 100+ posts on Jon Kitna is just plain pathetic. I'm outta here.

 

[Tau837]

We know about Kitna already .

He is a good Qb but wont keep his job long , why !!! Easy he turns the ball over like crazy ( Int`s - Fumbles - Bad decisions ) .

He will start the season as the starter but by week 5 ( When the Lions are 0-5 )

they will go not with Mccown but with the other young kid they have ( Cant remember his name even if i have him in a dynasty league )

Career Turnovers per Games PlayedKitna: 122::92 = 1.33 per game

Warner: 102::73 = 1.40 per game

Bulger: 65::44 = 1.48 per game

This seems a bit misleading. Consider career pass attempts per turnover, using your turnover totals:Warner: 2340:102 = 1 turnover per 22.9 pass attempts

Kitna: 2837:122 = 1 turnover per 23.3 pass attempts

Bulger: 1518:65 = 1 turnover per 23.4 pass attempts

This doesn't really support Trader2001's point, but it does present the data more fairly IMO.

EDIT: With added risk comes greater reward. Career pass attempts per passing TD:

Warner: 2340:119 = 1 TD pass per 19.7 pass attempts

Bulger: 1518:71 = 1 TD pass per 21.4 pass attempts

Kitna: 2837:108 = 1 TD pass per 26.3 pass attempts

Not only do Warner & Bulger throw TDs much more often, they also throw them at a greater rate than they cause turnovers. Kitna doesn't.

I don't think anyone was trying to say Kitna will be comparable to Warner or Bulger, which is good, because it doesn't seem reasonable to compare him to them.

 

[Tau837]

I like Kitna as a sleeper too, but please remember:

1) Faulk was a rare talent who Martz utilized to perfection, KJones does not have the same skill set. It will not be the same offense in large part to this factor.

2) Bruce, Holt and Hakim were far better than the Lions current WR's (with the exception of when they were drafted). Roy Williams is really the only guy who has shown flashes, and he has been inconsistent. The other guys really haven't done anything yet.

3) Martz offense was unlike anything anyone else had seen at the time, the league has had plenty of time to adjust and prepare for it.

4) Warner's ability to make quick reads in the Arena league were actually a huge benefit to him and the Rams. As stated earlier, Kitna will make some poor reads and force throws.

5) The Rams' defense was able to take advantage of the pressure the offense forced on the opposing offensive team in forcing a "track meet" mentality. This generated turnovers and further opportunity on offense. Not too certain the Lions offense will be able to do the same, nor if the defense can dictate tempo even if they did.

I don't see this offense blowing up overnight, they'll have some good games and some bad ones, but for this season, I think it will be premature to expect huge numbers out of any Detroit player.

 

[Tau837]

As for how RB have fared in the receiving game, here are the totals for RB since Martz entered the NFL . . .

1992 - 1996 Rams

92: 98-768-5

93: 84-732-1

94: 114-983-2

95: 74-472-0

96: 53-310-2

1997 - 1998 Redskins

97: 111-1138-4

98: 93-773-3

1999 - 2005 Rams

99: 110-1268-7

00: 102-985-9

01: 105-957-10

02: 124-895-4

03: 68-451-1

04: 84-614-1

05: 92-656-3

Exactly why I am so high on KJ this season.

First off, those were totals for all RBs on those teams. Let's look at the leading receiving RB's reception totals instead:1992 - 1996 Rams

92: Cleveland Gary - 52 (feature RB)

93: Gary - 36 (only 79 carries - third down back)

94: Johnny Bailey - 58 (only 11 carries - third down back)

95: Bailey - 38 (only 36 carries - third down back)

96: Harold Green - 37 (only 127 carries - RBBC)

1997 - 1998 Redskins

97: Brian Mitchell - 36 (only 23 carries - third down back)

98: Brian Mitchell - 44 (only 39 carries - third down back)

1999 - 2005 Rams

99: Marshall Faulk - 87 (feature RB)

00: Faulk - 81 (feature RB)

01: Faulk - 83 (feature RB)

02: Faulk - 80 (feature RB)

03: Faulk - 45 (feature RB, 11 games)

04: Faulk - 50 (feature RB, 14 games)

05: Steven Jackson - 43 (feature RB)

Excluding Faulk, that's an average of 43 catches for the leading receiving RB. But note that in 6 of the 8 seasons without Faulk, the leading receiving RB was not the feature RB. Best case for Jones is probably in the neighborhood of that average (i.e., 43 catches). Worst case is that Martz uses someone else like Bryson in a specific receiving RB role, relegating Jones to his typical total of less than 30 receptions.

I can imagine that some who are high on Jones will say that I shouldn't exclude the Faulk seasons. Here's the thing. First off, Faulk is a first ballot HOFer with an extremely unusual skill set rarely seen in RBs. There is no indication that Jones has this unusual skill set.

Secondly, please note that the season before Faulk first played for Martz, he was on the Colts, and had 86/908/4 receiving despite the fact that the Colts offense ranked 16th overall and its passing game ranked 9th. So what I see here is that Martz simply took full advantage of the receiving ability Faulk had already demonstrated. What receiving ability has Jones demonstrated? 48/289/1 receiving in 28 career games... a whopping 1.7 receptions per game and 6.0 ypc.

 

[Z-Dog]

The thing is, I don't think Kitna is as good as Warner, I don't think Roy Williams is as good as Holt, and I don't think Kevin Jones is as good as Faulk, where "good" includes physical ability/talent, mental ability, work ethic, football skills, durability, etc. So while I see the Lions offense improving, I'm not sure by how much, which is really what will determine how much of a value Kitna is at his current ADP.

I won't diasagree totally, but if Warner were such a talented QB how come he was stocking shelves and playing Arena Football?

The same sorts of questions can be asked of Tom Brady, Jake Delhomme, Matt Hasselbeck, and other QBs throughout the history of the league. Fact is that the NFL misses on some guys. Besides, are you suggesting that Martz made Warner? By now, we've seen Warner play for two years on two other teams. On both, his rating was in the mid-80s, he threw for over 7.2 YPA, and completed over 62% of his passes. This guy can play QB in the NFL, Mike Martz or no Mike Martz.

My problem is that Kevin Jones will not be able to do what Marshall Faulk did as an outlet receiver. That means more stalled drives, fewer scoring opportunities, and certainly lower yardage numbers from the RB as a receiver, and lower passing totals for Kitna. In '99-'01, Faulk had 1048, 830, and 765 yards receiving, repsectively. Similarly, from '01-'03, Priest Holmes had between 600-700 yards catching each season. Fewer than Faulk, yes, but he ran for more yards on the ground than Faulk.

I don't see KJ getting even 1300 yards on the ground, and I don't see him getting even 500 yards in the air, which pretty much means to me that the Martz offense will not be clicking on all cylinders. And we haven't even discussed whether the O-line can hold its own long enough to allow all that deep passing. Sorry, this one's a year away, and the player to look to is McCown, not Kitna.

I'm not suggesting that Kitna will put up Warner like numbers or that Warner was not a decent QB post-St. Louis.But if we ignore Warner . . . what about Trent Green? Or Marc Bulger? A one time fluke is one thing, but taking three guys that were complete nobodies is enough to convince me that it's not a fluke.

Getting back to Warner, he certainly has not been the same guy as he was in St. Louis. There are a lot of reasons WHY he hasn't been, but he certainly has not been as profilic with the exception of a few games last year for the Cardinals.

STL: 273 passing yards, 1.92 TD per game

NYG/ARI: 238 passing yards, 0.85 TD per game

Maybe lightning will not strike again in Detroit, but for the minimal investment it will take to land Kitna, IMO he easily is worth the limited risk it is to draft him.

I hear you, but I think that I'd rather go with a Chris Simms at that point. The surrounding cast is better, and there's not someone barking up his legs for the job.

 

[Marc Levin]

I hear you, but I think that I'd rather go with a Chris Simms at that point. The surrounding cast is better, and there's not someone barking up his legs for the job.

good point - and available only a bit higher.Gruden's not afraid to throw.

That said, I find the supporting casts comparable - neither is superior, IMO - it'sa just that TB has a much better D and can afford to allow Simms to make mistakes.

 

[Z-Dog]

That too - not to hijack the thread too badly, but Simms has a better O-line, a more promising RB, better receivers out of the backfield, and a nice array of talent at WR. Assuming you think Clayton will rebound, it's a very nice situation with a coach who most certainly throws a lot. I find it easier to beleive in Simms than in Kitna.

 

[Adam Sommer]

When Martz first came to the Rams, the team offensive totals went from 4,895 total yards and 24 total TD in 1991 to 5,081 total yards and 35 total TD in 1992.

For those that don't remember, when Martz took over as WR coach in 1995, Isaac Bruce's numbers went from 21-272-3 to 119-1781-13.

When Martz returned to St. Luois in 1999, the Rams offense increased from 4,766 total yards and 29 total TD to 6,639 total yards and 55 TD.

The Redskins did not meet with the same success, ads their numbers dipped slightly when Martz arrived, falling from 5,363/39 to 5,196/34, but that had a lot to do with RB Terry Allen getting hurt and slipping from 1547/21 to 896/5.

I think Martz gets a lot of bad press because of how he was a head coach (although he did HC to a Super Bowl berth) not a OC. Being in STL and having to listen to all the media and even living on the same street as his family (Wildhorse subdivision in Chesterfield for those who are wondering), I don't think his failure as a HC was due to football but more personality and mental issues. In fact, many do not even consider him a "failure" as a HC in the first place.Anyway, my point is that he is an excellant OC and offensive mind, and when he is under the supervision of another coach, he seems to be brilliant. I know a lot of you think his success was "luck" or that he simply had good players, or whatever....but 15 years of "luck" and good players is kind-of ironic isnt it?

If he was tha lucky, he should have quit this football thing and gone straight to Vegas.

No, I think he has a great deal of skill.

 

[Tau837]

When Martz first came to the Rams, the team offensive totals went from 4,895 total yards and 24 total TD in 1991 to 5,081 total yards and 35 total TD in 1992.

True. But how do you know how much of that to attribute to Martz? He was simply an "offensive assistant", not in charge of QBs, WRs, etc. Also note that in 1992 the Rams passed for ~200 fewer yards than in 1991, although that was more than offset by the improvement in passing TDs.

For those that don't remember, when Martz took over as WR coach in 1995, Isaac Bruce's numbers went from 21-272-3 to 119-1781-13.

True. How is this relevant to Kitna? For that matter, given that he'll be OC and not WR coach, I'm not sure how relevant it is to Roy Williams or any of the other WRs.

When Martz returned to St. Luois in 1999, the Rams offense increased from 4,766 total yards and 29 total TD to 6,639 total yards and 55 TD.

Think that had anything to do with trading for Faulk, drafting Holt, and letting Tony Banks go to go with Trent Green and then Warner? Martz was certainly a positive, but I think you're implying way too much credit here.

The Redskins did not meet with the same success, ads their numbers dipped slightly when Martz arrived, falling from 5,363/39 to 5,196/34, but that had a lot to do with RB Terry Allen getting hurt and slipping from 1547/21 to 896/5.

Well, he was the QB coach, so why don't we examine his effect there? Frerotte was the primary QB in both 1996 (before Martz) and 1997 (with Martz). Here are his numbers:

+---------------------------------------+-----------------+                 |              Passing                  |     Rushing     |+----------+-----+---------------------------------------+-----------------+| Year  TM |   G |  Comp   Att   PCT    YD   Y/A  TD INT |  Att  Yards  TD |+----------+-----+---------------------------------------+-----------------+| 1996 was |  16 |   270   470  57.4  3453   7.3  12  11 |    28    16   0 || 1997 was |  13 |   204   402  50.7  2682   6.7  17  12 |    24    65   2 |+----------+-----+---------------------------------------+-----------------+

Which year was better? Hard to say. In 1997 with Martz, he was on pace (scaled up to 16 games) for fewer yards to go along with more interceptions, lower completion percentage, and lower ypa. On the positive side, he was on pace for 50% more TDs. From a fantasy standpoint, Frerotte was QB11 in 1996 and QB20 in 1997. That drop was primarily due to missing 3 games, but there wasn't a significant improvement there due to Martz's arrival.In 1998, he did help Trent Green emerge as QB7 in his first season as a starter. Curious that he didn't play Green more the previous year.---In summary, I don't think these data points lead to the conclusion that you are implying.