are you starting your Cin WR? (1 Viewer)

[baronson]

not fishing here, and to be honest, i think i may be over-coaching a bit. but with the way JAX just ran and ran and ran on IND last week, i'm concerned that CIN doesn't attempt more than 20 passes or so. not to mention, they'll probably run inside the red zone on every down. i know it's not easy to bench Chad or Housh (i have TJ myself), but it's got to be weighing on people's minds, no?

the counter-balance is that CIN defense has yielded some points to good offenses this season, so they may have to pass if they're behind in the 4th. i have several other worthwhile options (dont want this to be a WDIS thread) who all poke their heads into the top 20 in this weeks cheatsheets. so basically, are the CIN WRs still must starts? i'm guessing yes, but wondering what the pool thinks.

 

[Cowboys#1]

im starting Chad.. i have berrian on my bench but i cant bench Chad.. especially when my opponent has Palmer/Rudy

 

[Kirby]

Run, Run, Run, Run, Run, Run, Playaction to Henry for a TD.

 

[sinatravolta]

Don't bench Chad or TJ.

1 - the game could well be of the 41-38 variety - with plenty of points to go around to RBs and WRs

2 - the Colts could easily get ahead and put the Bengals in a pass-first situation

3 - the Bengals are different from the Jags - they are naturally a run/pass even split type team while the Jags would much rather run and play D.

I have Rudi and TJ and am starting them both happily. I think it's a great matchup for Rudi, and a good one for TJ.

 

[Wu-banger]

Going with Palmer and #85 ....... expecting big things!!!

 

[chihawk]

Cincy did just fine passing the ball last week against the #1 ranked passing defense. I think they will still air it out.

 

[H.K.]

the game could well be of the 41-38 variety

Facts:1) The Colts have been awful lately. They have lost 3 out of four games.2) In their three losses, they have averaged 16 points per game.3) Manning has thrown 2 TD passes in his past three games.Anyone expecting a shoot-out this week isn't paying attention.

 

[H.K.]

since you are horribly wrong so often.. i will take that to mean that Chad will have 200-3 and housh will get hurt on the first playis this a Gunz alias?

1) Leave Gunz out of this2) Name one time I've been wrong...ever!

 

[Bad Mojo]

Run, Run, Run, Run, Run, Run, Playaction to Henry for a TD.

..and we have a winner

 

[H.K.]

Nice Honkers in your avatar

 

[Cowboys#1]

since you are horribly wrong so often.. i will take that to mean that Chad will have 200-3 and housh will get hurt on the first playis this a Gunz alias?

1) Leave Gunz out of this2) Name one time I've been wrong...ever!

your "statistical impossibility" that Gates would not be the #1 TE in the league.. and would fall out of the top 5?!?!?! what were you thinking?

 

[H.K.]

your "statistical impossibility" that Gates would not be the #1 TE in the league.. and would fall out of the top 5?!?!?! what were you thinking?

I don't think. I know.The season is not over, Gates will not be # 1. As I said: I have never been wrong.

 

[baronson]

start a "have i ever been wrong" thread in FFA, if you want to. hell, you could even start it in the shark pool, for all i care. i think you're funny sometimes, but times like this are just annoying.

 

[PsychoMan]

may be a run first strategy, but there will be plenty of throwing. this has potential to be a 70-80 point game.

i would never sit a cinci WR in this matchup -- even if i knew rudi would run for 180 yds.

 

[H.K.]

start a "have i ever been wrong" thread in FFA, if you want to. hell, you could even start it in the shark pool, for all i care. i think you're funny sometimes, but times like this are just annoying.

sorry.

 

[Raider Nation]

the game could well be of the 41-38 variety

Facts:1) The Colts have been awful lately. They have lost 3 out of four games.2) In their three losses, they have averaged 16 points per game.3) Manning has thrown 2 TD passes in his past three games.

Bengals defense has given up a TOTAL of 33 points in their last four games.

 

[WJH]

Palmer and Chad Johnson, both will be starting

 

[LHUCKS]

Starting Henry over Keyshawn...I expect a shootout.

 

[H.K.]

the game could well be of the 41-38 variety

Facts:1) The Colts have been awful lately. They have lost 3 out of four games.2) In their three losses, they have averaged 16 points per game.3) Manning has thrown 2 TD passes in his past three games.

Bengals defense has given up a TOTAL of 33 points in their last four games.

 

[Broncoholic]

I'm starting Chad, and Henry with confidance.

Of course I'm sure Housh will get 4 catches for 8 yds and 3 TDs.

 

[Raider Nation]

Starting Henry over Keyshawn...I expect a shootout.

I also have Henry, and I gave him a hard look this week but I just can't do it. First of all, the Bengals are going to run Rudi 30+ times. It's not just talk. They are going to run him all night long, and they don't care who knows it. That will chew up clock. Indy should also try to get their running game in gear to protect their horrific defense and keep them off the field as much as possible. That will chew up clock.Also, Henry only gets 2 or 3 catches every week. Granted, one of them often is a TD, but I can't take that chance this week. I have other WRs on my roster who see FAR more targets than Henry, and they are #1 options on their team (as opposed to the #3 option). Henry could score 3 TDs or he could go without a catch. This isn't the time of year to be gambling.

I wish you luck, but I just can't roll with a guy who gets so few looks every week.

 

[blueandsilver]

I wouldn't bench CJ or Housh., but the Colts give up only 21 ppg to WR in my league (ppr). This is the lowest amount in the NFL by 2.75 ppg.

The Colts give up 35.4 ppg to RB's in my league (ppr). This is the 2nd most in the league.

 

[Ralley Monkeys]

I'm starting Housh with zero second thoughts.

 

[Raider Nation]

The Colts give up only 21 ppg to WR in my league (ppr). This is the lowest amount in the NFL by 2.75 ppg.The Colts give up 35.4 ppg to RB's in my league (ppr). This is the 2nd most in the league.

And the former is directly correlated to the latter, which is the cause for concern with the WRs.

 

[Widbil83]

I'm starting Housh with zero second thoughts.

I'm with you on that.

 

[Tom Servo]

I'm starting Housh with zero second thoughts.

I'm with you on that.

As am I.

 

[Yitbos69]

starting CJ

 

[prosopis]

I'm starting Housh with zero second thoughts.

I'm with you on that.

As am I.

me to. Housh!!!!!!!!!!!CHAMPIONSHIP!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

[Bwanna]

I'm starting Palmer and CJ.

I reluctantly benched CJ last week vs Oakland's top-rated pass D, in favor of Driver. It turned out OK, but CJ still had 100+ yards.

The fact that CJ, Housh, and Rudi had over 100 yards each against a very good Oak pass D and a soft run D gives me confidence that they will put up some numbers vs Indy. Indy has an offense that *can* put up numbers, and Oakland doesn't... and it could be a shoot out.

 

[Bwanna]

Also, I've started checking this link more and more to see how #1 WRs and #2 WRs do vs various defenses.

I benched CJ in part last week because #1 WRs have done 30.5% *worse* than the league average against Oakland. On the otherhand, #2 WRs have done 14.1% *better* than average in Oakland -- and TJ had a nice day last week.

Indy on the otherhand:

#1 WRs - 15.4% better than league avg

#2 WRs - 16.7% better

other WRs - 7.2% better

There's some good info on that page, some of it obvious, some not so.

 

[baronson]

Also, I've started checking this link more and more to see how #1 WRs and #2 WRs do vs various defenses.

I benched CJ in part last week because #1 WRs have done 30.5% *worse* than the league average against Oakland. On the otherhand, #2 WRs have done 14.1% *better* than average in Oakland -- and TJ had a nice day last week.

Indy on the otherhand:

#1 WRs - 15.4% better than league avg

#2 WRs - 16.7% better

other WRs - 7.2% better

There's some good info on that page, some of it obvious, some not so.

that same site has RB as 23.6% WORSE against IND. that can't be right.

 

[Darth Cheney]

I'm starting Housh with zero second thoughts.

I'm with you on that.

As am I.

me to. Housh!!!!!!!!!!!CHAMPIONSHIP!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

GIDDYUP!!!!!

 

[AZhardballz]

I'm starting Housh too but what's all this talk about an injured back anyway (excuse to skip practice maybe... I dunno.)

 

[Alonso de Cordoba]

Also, I've started checking this link more and more to see how #1 WRs and #2 WRs do vs various defenses.

I benched CJ in part last week because #1 WRs have done 30.5% *worse* than the league average against Oakland. On the otherhand, #2 WRs have done 14.1% *better* than average in Oakland -- and TJ had a nice day last week.

Indy on the otherhand:

#1 WRs - 15.4% better than league avg

#2 WRs - 16.7% better

other WRs - 7.2% better

There's some good info on that page, some of it obvious, some not so.

that same site has RB as 23.6% WORSE against IND. that can't be right.

That's against RBs as receivers. Most RBs, against Indy, catch fewer passes and gain fewer yards receiving.

 

[-OZ-]

If you have Holt, Steve Smith, and Roy Williams, go ahead and bench Housh.

Otherwise,

 

[WhoDat]

Somehow, I think Palmer and his WR are just a tad bit better than what the Jags put on the field at the same respective positions, while the Colts are still fighting injuries at CB and each safety position. Dungy also has injuries at DT and DE. The middle of that defense is in bad shape. The Colts LB are being tasked with too much responsibility to cover holes, while being eaten alive by FB, OL and TE.

The Bengals might hang 35 on that defense by half-time. Fantasy rankings, stats or percentages aside the personnel match-ups are going to be a (blanking) nightmare for the Colts' defense. Dungy just does not have enough healthy and capable bodies to slow down 85, 84 and 15.

 

[kal-el]

Also, I've started checking this link more and more to see how #1 WRs and #2 WRs do vs various defenses.

I benched CJ in part last week because #1 WRs have done 30.5% *worse* than the league average against Oakland. On the otherhand, #2 WRs have done 14.1% *better* than average in Oakland -- and TJ had a nice day last week.

Indy on the otherhand:

#1 WRs - 15.4% better than league avg

#2 WRs - 16.7% better

other WRs - 7.2% better

There's some good info on that page, some of it obvious, some not so.

One note on the DVOA stats cited here: My understanding is that the stat controls for the number of plays a player is involved in. So I think that means #1 and #2 WRs are both above average vs. Indy on a per-play basis.One of the reasons that WRs no doubt score so few points against the Indy defense is that there are fewer passing attempts as teams run the ball more frequently vs. the Colts.

So I'd put much more stock in the low fantasy points per game than in the DVOA stats in this situation.

I personally am waivering between Housh and Driver--in part because the DVOA stats show Detroit to be much better vs. #1 receivers than #2 receivers, while giving up an average number of fantasy points to wide receivers. (This may be due to the presence of Dre' Bly.)

Note: This would be a useful (albeit somewhat subjective) set of stats for FBG to provide: average fantasy points scored by #1 and #2 WRs against each defense.