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Arian Foster, RB, Houston Texans (1 Viewer)

Jason Wood

Zoo York
2012 Player Spotlight Series

One of Footballguys best assets is our message board community. The Shark Pool is, in our view, the best place on the internet to discuss, debate and analyze all things fantasy football. In what's become an annual tradition, the Player Spotlight series is a key part of the preseason efforts. As many of you know, we consider the Player Spotlight threads the permanent record for analyzing the fantasy prospects of the player in question. This year, we plan to publish more than 140 offensive spotlights covering the vast majority of expected skill position starters.

As always we will post a list of players to be discussed each week. Those threads will remain open for the entire preseason, and should be a central point to discuss expectations for the player in question. Importantly, analysis done in the first week of posting will be part of the permanent record in two ways. 1) At the end of the week, we will tally the projections into a consensus. 2) We will select a number of pull quotes from forum contributors who make a compelling statement or observation. Both the projections and pull quotes will be part of a published article on the main website.

Thread Topic: Arian Foster, RB, Houston Texans

Player Page Link: Arian Foster Player Page

Each article will include:

[*]Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member

[*]Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads

[*]FBG Projections

[*]Consensus Member Projections

The Rules

In order for this thread to provide maximum value, we ask that you follow a few simple guidelines:

[*]Focus commentary on the player (or players) in question, and your expectations for said player (or players)

[*]Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"

[*]Avoid redundancies or :popcorn: ... this should be about incremental analysis or debate

While not a requirement, we strongly encourage you to provide your own projections for the player (players):

Projections should include:

[*]For QBs: Attempts, Completions, Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Attempts, Rush Yards, Rush TDs

[*]For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs

[*]For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs

Now let's get on with the conversation! We look forward to your contributions and let me offer a personal thanks in anticipation of the great debate and analysis.

 
#1.

Good line. Good defense. Good pass game. A coach who loves to utilize the run game. Stability with nothing in flux.

Solid history. 25 years old, turning 26. Lofty yards per carry, plenty of catches and pass game utilization.

Really solid back up to hand cuff and get production from if an injury sets in. Lovely division.

315 carries, 1450 yards.

60 catches, 600 yards.

16 total TDs.

 
No doubt he is a stud if healthy. What I worry about is how early you have to take Tate if you want him as a handcuff. You pretty much have to take Tate in the 6th for a guarantee to get him, which IMO is a large price to pay for a handcuff. Not a major issue, but with a guy like Foster, you have to reach to find negatives of drafting him.

306/1485/12

 
No doubt he is a stud if healthy. What I worry about is how early you have to take Tate if you want him as a handcuff. You pretty much have to take Tate in the 6th for a guarantee to get him, which IMO is a large price to pay for a handcuff. Not a major issue, but with a guy like Foster, you have to reach to find negatives of drafting him.

306/1485/12
If you have to reach as far as to talk about the price of the handcuff for a palyer, that's probably one of the strongest things you can say about Foster. There really are no cracks to him. There really is nothing he doesn't do as well as or better than the vast majority of other RBs. #1 back in fantasy, sitting smack dab in the middle of the sweet spot of his career.Draft Foster if you can get him and don't worry about Tate. Its Foster you are after. Use him if you have him and don't get caught up in trying to build insurance plans. Injuries happen and you never know who its going to hit or miss. That's the luck of it.

 
Lets take the first month of last season away, when Foster was dealing with an ailing hamstring. In the two seasons hes been the bellcow for the HOU running attack, hes put up the following per game numbers (28 games).

140.1 Yards From Scrimmage

1.1 TDs

In an era that has seen the decline of the bellcow RB to the point where only 2 exceeded 300 carries last season (compare to 2003 when 13 did)…Foster is the rarity in that hes putting up top 10 all-time level YFS numbers. The primary reason for this is that hes absolutely deadly in the passing game. His career YPR is 10.3, an ungodly high number for an RB.

When I watch Foster play, what sticks out to me is just how much yardage he gobbles up by the step. While hes gets out to edge very fast, it doesnt look that fast. This applies when he has and does not have the ball and it makes it tough for LBs to cover him. So hes capable of not just having huge rushing games, but huge receiving games as well (he had as many 100 yard receiving games in 2011 as Hakeem Nicks & Greg Jennings). This season, it appears there are 3 top RBs; Foster, Rice & McCoy. I think the choice here is Foster. Rice probably poses the best chance to equal Fosters production, but at the end of the day, Foster has simply proven more productive on a per game basis than any RB in the NFL when hes healthy and hes going to be leaned on to produce closer to his 2010 level than his 2011 so long as hes in good health.

If you take Rices two best seasons (2009 & 2011) his per game averages come in at:

128.4 Yards From Scrimmage

0.7 TDs

I get that in one of those seasons, McGahee was the goal line vulture. But even when you look at big plays just in 2011…Foster had as many 20+ yard plays as Rice did in 36 fewer touches. At the end of the day, if you wound up with either (assuming Rice does not hold out), youre going to be ecstatic. But Foster IMO simply has a measurable edge even if its perhaps only by a factor of 10% more production over Rice but 2 points/week on average is still 2 points/week. In an area of the draft where you are measuring ceilings and the chances of reaching that ceiling, Foster is just a shade better. As for McCoy, weve yet to see him put the YFS & TD numbers in a single season to be considered in the #1 pick discussion. And while McCoy is the youngest of the three, neither Rices nor Fosters age poses any threat or hint of a decline on the 2012 horizon.

With an aging Andre Johnson who has experienced 2 consecutive injury marred seasons and the failure to have unearthed legitimate complimentary weapons in the passing game, the HOU offense seems destined to ride on the back of Foster again. While Ben Tate did emerge as a solid #2 RB to spell Foster, this offense is now his. His production will show it.

Prediction: 332 Rushes, 1563 Rushing Yards, 15 TDs; 70 Receptions, 707 Receiving Yards, 4 TDs.

 
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'TheDirtyWord said:
Let’s take the first month of last season away, when Foster was dealing with an ailing hamstring. In the two seasons he’s been the bellcow for the HOU running attack, he’s put up the following per game numbers (28 games).

140.1 Yards From Scrimmage

1.1 TD’s

In an era that has seen the decline of the bellcow RB to the point where only 2 exceeded 300 carries last season (compare to 2003 when 13 did)…Foster is the rarity in that he’s putting up top 10 all-time level YFS numbers. The primary reason for this is that he’s absolutely deadly in the passing game. His career YPR is 10.3, an ungodly high number for an RB.

When I watch Foster play, what sticks out to me is just how much yardage he gobbles up by the step. While he’s gets out to edge very fast, it doesn’t look that fast. This applies when he has and does not have the ball and it makes it tough for LB’s to cover him. So he’s capable of not just having huge rushing games, but huge receiving games as well (he had as many 100 yard receiving games in 2011 as Hakeem Nicks & Greg Jennings). This season, it appears there are 3 top RB’s; Foster, Rice & McCoy. I think the choice here is Foster. Rice probably poses the best chance to equal Foster’s production, but at the end of the day, Foster has simply proven more productive on a per game basis than any RB in the NFL when he’s healthy and he’s going to be leaned on to produce closer to his 2010 level than his 2011 so long as he’s in good health.

If you take Rice’s two best seasons (2009 & 2011) his per game averages come in at:

128.4 Yards From Scrimmage

0.7 TD’s

I get that in one of those seasons, McGahee was the goal line vulture. But even when you look at big plays just in 2011…Foster had as many 20+ yard plays as Rice did in 36 fewer touches. At the end of the day, if you wound up with either (assuming Rice does not hold out), you’re going to be ecstatic. But Foster IMO simply has a measurable edge even if it’s perhaps only by a factor of 10% more production over Rice – but 2 points/week on average is still 2 points/week. In an area of the draft where you are measuring ceilings and the chances of reaching that ceiling, Foster is just a shade better. As for McCoy, we’ve yet to see him put the YFS & TD numbers in a single season to be considered in the #1 pick discussion. And while McCoy is the youngest of the three, neither Rice’s nor Foster’s age poses any threat or hint of a decline on the 2012 horizon.

With an aging Andre Johnson who has experienced 2 consecutive injury marred seasons and the failure to have unearthed legitimate complimentary weapons in the passing game, the HOU offense seems destined to ride on the back of Foster again. While Ben Tate did emerge as a solid #2 RB to spell Foster, this offense is now his. His production will show it.

Prediction: 332 Rushes, 1563 Rushing Yards, 15 TD’s; 70 Receptions, 707 Receiving Yards, 4 TD’s.
Really good info there. Yes, the long strides or exagerated steps he has (whatever it is) doesn't jump out at you, but he just seems to "glide" and in an instant, its like 7 yards, 9 yards. the thing i like most about Foster is that he doesn't HAVE to have 100+ game to be a #1RB for you in any given week because he can churn away against a tough team, end up with 48 yards rushing, but he will also end up, on days like that, with 7 catches and 76 yards and a TD. Money.

 
Any issues with the O line having some turnover this year (including a blocking TE?). I think 2 of the 5 starters will be new, IIRC.

 
THIS could be THE year... a throwback year for a dominant rb

1650 yards rushing 15 tds

800 yards receiving 8 tds

 
Any issues with the O line having some turnover this year (including a blocking TE?). I think 2 of the 5 starters will be new, IIRC.
It's something to consider, yes.RT Eric Winston and RG Mike Brisiel are gone, replaced with (most likely) Rashad Butler at tackle and probably Antoine Caldwell at guard... though Houston drafted a behemeth rookie guard named Brandon Brooks who might compete for the spot.Butler is a tackle who can play either side, but only has 4 starts in his career. Those 4 starts were at left tackle 2 years ago when Duane Brown was suspended, and Butler did a good job. Butler is probably a better pass blocker than Winston was, but not as good of a run blocker.Caldwell has 13 starts in 3 years, including 7 in 2010 when Foster had his breakout season. I don't have much of a well-formed opinion to share yet about how he compares to Brisiel.On the good side, both players have been with the team for multiple years and have some experience playing with the other players in the starting unit. But it can still take an O-line time to come together when you change out personnel like this.As far as the loss of Dreessen at TE, it may depend on what they do at 2nd TE and FB. James Casey can probably fill in just as well as Dreessen if they use him as the primarily TE2, or at least when he's not playing fullback. And if I had to put down money now that would be my bet. The other option, Garrett Graham, has been in a zone blocking scheme since college, though coming out of school it was questioned if his run blocking would be up to par or if he lacked enough strength for it. Haven't personally seen enough out of him in NFL games to offer an opinion there.
 
'butcher boy said:
No doubt he is a stud if healthy. What I worry about is how early you have to take Tate if you want him as a handcuff. You pretty much have to take Tate in the 6th for a guarantee to get him, which IMO is a large price to pay for a handcuff. Not a major issue, but with a guy like Foster, you have to reach to find negatives of drafting him.

306/1485/12
I would counter that Tate is not a normal handcuff as even with a healthy Foster Tate is a legit RB3. I'm sure there are many on this board who started both some weeks and were quite happy with the results.So you could look at it from the POV that for a sixth you are getting a RB3/4 PLUS a handcuff that is a lock RB1 if Foster misses time.

 
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Any issues with the O line having some turnover this year (including a blocking TE?). I think 2 of the 5 starters will be new, IIRC.
The Texans use a zone blocking system, so I don't they'll feel the loss as much as other teams do.
That doesn't mean any 5 OL can go out there and be successful. Winston was a stud in that scheme, that's why they couldn't afford to bring him back.
 
Any issues with the O line having some turnover this year (including a blocking TE?). I think 2 of the 5 starters will be new, IIRC.
The Texans use a zone blocking system, so I don't they'll feel the loss as much as other teams do.
That doesn't mean any 5 OL can go out there and be successful. Winston was a stud in that scheme, that's why they couldn't afford to bring him back.
Winston wasn't a FA. They cut him.Good analysis by TDW. I don't see any need to further it, except to say that he had to put up with defenses stacking the box after Schaub went down and he was still studly. I expect more of the same from him. I don't own him in any holdover leagues, but I will draft him with confidence #1 overall in any redraft format.
 
Any issues with the O line having some turnover this year (including a blocking TE?). I think 2 of the 5 starters will be new, IIRC.
The Texans use a zone blocking system, so I don't they'll feel the loss as much as other teams do.
That doesn't mean any 5 OL can go out there and be successful. Winston was a stud in that scheme, that's why they couldn't afford to bring him back.
Winston wasn't a FA. They cut him.

Good analysis by TDW. I don't see any need to further it, except to say that he had to put up with defenses stacking the box after Schaub went down and he was still studly. I expect more of the same from him. I don't own him in any holdover leagues, but I will draft him with confidence #1 overall in any redraft format.
Never said he was a FA.http://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/blog/shutdown_corner/post/texans-take-a-big-risk-in-releasing-eric-winston?urn=nfl,wp20455

They cut him because they were against the cap, but it will hurt the run game.

 
'benson_will_lead_the_way said:
Never said he was a FA.http://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/blog/shutdown_corner/post/texans-take-a-big-risk-in-releasing-eric-winston?urn=nfl,wp20455They cut him because they were against the cap, but it will hurt the run game.
My bad. I guess I just assumed that's what you meant from the wording. Usually I associate "bringing someone back" as in re-signing them. If you'd said, "they couldn't afford to keep him" then it'd have been crystal clear but I got you now. Either way, I don't think the run game will suffer much, if at all. If they thought it was a big deal then they would've cut another position. Butler has been groomed for a while now. Time to see some returns on that investment. I was sad to see Winston go, though.
 
'benson_will_lead_the_way said:
Never said he was a FA.http://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/blog/shutdown_corner/post/texans-take-a-big-risk-in-releasing-eric-winston?urn=nfl,wp20455They cut him because they were against the cap, but it will hurt the run game.
My bad. I guess I just assumed that's what you meant from the wording. Usually I associate "bringing someone back" as in re-signing them. If you'd said, "they couldn't afford to keep him" then it'd have been crystal clear but I got you now. Either way, I don't think the run game will suffer much, if at all. If they thought it was a big deal then they would've cut another position. Butler has been groomed for a while now. Time to see some returns on that investment. I was sad to see Winston go, though.
I own Foster in 0 leagues, but wish I did :cry: . The things he can do in the open field is pretty amazing. I just really question how much they can lose before it starts effecting the run game. Lose Vonta Leach last year. Now lose Eric Winston and Mike Brisiel.Who knows...just thought it was something of note.
 
just read that he has become a vegan.

anything to see here?

diet i would think plays a huge roll in muscle, recovery, strength, etc.

tough to get good grade protein without meat.

could it lead to his body breaking down quicker?

 
just read that he has become a vegan.anything to see here?diet i would think plays a huge roll in muscle, recovery, strength, etc.tough to get good grade protein without meat.could it lead to his body breaking down quicker?
I haven't read this first hand but from what I was told, he said he was "trying a vegan diet", which isn't the same as becoming a vegan. You know, we can "try sushi" for a week...Normally, I wouldn't make anything at all out of this, especially during the dead part of the NFL news season, but it at least makes me give it consideration because I remember clearly that when Foster was interviewed late in his breakout year, he specifically mentioned that he thought things completely turned the corner for him once he got serious about his nutrition and relaized it was a very important part in him being an athlete, overall. He also mentioned it last year when he had his hammy issues andincorporated it into his rehab/conditioning. So, overall, its hard for me to think he gives this any long-term effort unless he truly thinks there is something to it that imporves him (not maintains and certainly not risks anything).With all that being said, it makes no difference in how I see him ranked for this season.
 
There are a ton of options for a vegan to get protein, as long as he is willing to try (tempeh, tofu, etc). I find it interesting there is a general "concern" about this as there are a ton of guys in the league who eat crap, no one raises an eye brow...remember when Ochocinco used to brag about how much Mickey D's he use to eat? How has that worked for him since he turned 30?

I think it is great..whether it puts him at "optimal" nutrition or not, he will be much better off than just winging it.

 
There are a ton of options for a vegan to get protein, as long as he is willing to try (tempeh, tofu, etc). I find it interesting there is a general "concern" about this as there are a ton of guys in the league who eat crap, no one raises an eye brow...remember when Ochocinco used to brag about how much Mickey D's he use to eat? How has that worked for him since he turned 30?I think it is great..whether it puts him at "optimal" nutrition or not, he will be much better off than just winging it.
But those substances can crank up estrogen. And can be counter productive, particularly for men.
 
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There are a ton of options for a vegan to get protein, as long as he is willing to try (tempeh, tofu, etc). I find it interesting there is a general "concern" about this as there are a ton of guys in the league who eat crap, no one raises an eye brow...remember when Ochocinco used to brag about how much Mickey D's he use to eat? How has that worked for him since he turned 30?I think it is great..whether it puts him at "optimal" nutrition or not, he will be much better off than just winging it.
But those substances can crank up estrogen. And can be counter productive, particularly for men.
Plant killer! Veggies have feelings, you know.
 
There are a ton of options for a vegan to get protein, as long as he is willing to try (tempeh, tofu, etc). I find it interesting there is a general "concern" about this as there are a ton of guys in the league who eat crap, no one raises an eye brow...remember when Ochocinco used to brag about how much Mickey D's he use to eat? How has that worked for him since he turned 30?I think it is great..whether it puts him at "optimal" nutrition or not, he will be much better off than just winging it.
again, not sure if it is a big deal, but the above isn't a great grade of protein and a rb like foster is taking a bit more punishment not to mention needing more strength than say a wr like ocho.
 
Any issues with the O line having some turnover this year (including a blocking TE?). I think 2 of the 5 starters will be new, IIRC.
The Texans use a zone blocking system, so I don't they'll feel the loss as much as other teams do.
That doesn't mean any 5 OL can go out there and be successful. Winston was a stud in that scheme, that's why they couldn't afford to bring him back.
Nor did I say that. I said that the Texans scheme will cushion the blow, and it won't be as drastic as some are saying.
 
'Sweet Love said:
There are a ton of options for a vegan to get protein, as long as he is willing to try (tempeh, tofu, etc). I find it interesting there is a general "concern" about this as there are a ton of guys in the league who eat crap, no one raises an eye brow...remember when Ochocinco used to brag about how much Mickey D's he use to eat? How has that worked for him since he turned 30?I think it is great..whether it puts him at "optimal" nutrition or not, he will be much better off than just winging it.
"winging it" would be infinitely better than a vegan diet, which is inherently detrimental and unsustainable.The internet is littered with former vegans, many of them high profile, that have come to this conclusion.
 

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