inca911
Footballguy
Here is an article I submitted to FBG that apparently isn't going to be published (I never heard if it was even received, despite multiple requests for confirmation via email and PM). Hopefully it's useful to some of you. Feedback (both positive and negative) on the article is always welcome and appreciated.
Owner Psychology in Fantasy Football
Summary:
Much of today’s information regarding fantasy football is limited to the finite and mathematical realm of projection methods, auction baselines and calculations, value-based-drafting (VBD), average draft position (ADP), and the like. Very limited information has been provided to date regarding the soft skills of owner psychology and how to understand the nature and tendencies of the opposing owners in a given league. The primary goal of this article is to explain how different owner personalities influence decisions during an auction, and describe several strategies that can maximize the returns of the most important, and arguably most fun, day in any fantasy football league—the auction. Although this article primarily addresses owner behavior in an auction scenario, owner personalities play a large role throughout the course of the season and understanding other owners provides the knowledgeable owner with a key competitive advantage.
Personality Types
There are many different systems that have been envisioned to categorize different personalities into defined groups to better understand how people think and discern what information is important to them. One of the most well known systems is the Myers-Briggs personality Type Indicator (MBTI), in which the responses to a series of questions are used to classify people into one of sixteen different base personality types. Many people can even rattle off their MBTI code if asked (I alternate between an ENTJ and INTJ). Rather than tackle sixteen personality types, this article will focus on the distillation of these traits into the four primary temperaments covering all owners. A temperament is a general way of thinking and behaving, and all owners fall into one of the following four categories:
The Idealist
The Theorist
The Guardian
The Improviser
By understanding how these four types of owners think, how they evaluate and select players, and how they behave in a league setting, one can predict their behavior and gain a competitive advantage throughout the auction and the season in general.The Idealist
The Idealist owner manages the auction process and determines player values using personal intuition and general impressions. This owner is most likely to have some sense of why he feels a player is valuable, but doesn’t bother trying to quantify exactly how much a player should be worth, as the feeling is what is important to him. The Idealist thinks a QB can wait for a while, but isn’t very interested in all the details behind why he thinks the way he does. The Idealist isn’t limited to the information in a magazine or conventional sources, doesn’t typically do a lot of preparation work, and follows his heart to build and manage a team.
To spot an Idealist, look for use of language that is hard to define in specific terms. In describing a house, this person would likely talk about the house being “open and airy”, or “comfortable and natural”. You can’t truly understand what the house might look like, or even know the number of bedrooms, but the Idealist is comfortable with this description because they focus on the general concept and not on the details. The Idealist is a people person, and generally wants everyone to reach consensus in a positive manner. The Idealist dislikes detail, and is impatient with formal procedures and practices.
During an auction, the Idealist will not avoid a bidding war. The Idealist may not even notice that someone else is bidding up a player just to get the Idealist to “overpay”. The details are much less important than the overall principle. If you know of a player that an Idealist likes, nominate that player early and the Idealist will spend extra to get what they want. The Idealist is often very good at knowing general trends within the league, but often will not know details such as who the current backup is for a given key player. Idealist owners prefer high integrity and honest players, as they are fundamentally drawn to the qualities those players represent. They also like new players who represent a potential improvement to a team. Idealists often shy away from players with legal or ethical problems, or those who are involved in contract disputes.
Roughly 20% of owners are Idealists. These owners prefer players like Peyton Manning and Tom Brady for their team focus, Edgerrin James and Thomas Jones for their new team potential, and Steve Smith and Marvin Harrison for their leadership and work ethic. Players like Randy Moss and Terrell Owens have less appeal to Idealists, and issues like Larry Johnson’s current contract dispute at the time of this article are definite downgrades for Idealist owners.
The Theorist
The Theorist owner enjoys dealing with very specific technical information related to the players and the league. This owner will want to know every detail of the scoring system in an attempt to exploit every nuance to his advantage. The Theorist values technical excellent and consistency, and it is very important to this owner to be thought of as intelligent by the other owners. The Theorist will calculate exact values for all players, and does a lot of research to ensure he doesn’t make any mistakes that would make him look unprepared or even worse, incompetent.
To spot a Theorist, look for language that is technically correct and very precise. The Theorist will be quick to cite the various rules and practices the league employs. This owner generally likes math, statistics, logic, and reason. The Theorist is most likely to propose rules changes for the league, in an ongoing attempt to make the league more perfect, and often prefers complex rules as these are seen as an opportunity to exploit the subtle variations to win the league. The Theorist is a knowledge and systems person above all else who sees the league as a challenge that can be systematically won by out-thinking everyone else.
During an auction, the Theorist will avoid a bidding war as “overpaying” is seen as a mistake. The Theorist is generally not committed to any specific player in the league, but is committed to getting great deals throughout the auction. The Theorist often can’t resist a good deal for a backup player, so if you perceive the Theorist has calculated that QBs are being underbid, nominate another QB and the Theorist will jump on the idea that his backup is better than many other owner’s starters. Theorists will know all the key NFL backups, and are often drawn to handcuff players as these handcuff players have great potential to make the Theorist look like an expert. Theorists will know all the key bye week issues for the current year, and relish trades and making incremental improvements to their team whenever possible.
Roughly 10% of owners are Theorists. To ensure a respectable finish in the league, these owners have a tendency to build teams with great depth to ensure they have a contingency plan in case something goes wrong, and are hesitant to bet their season and reputation on a few high cost players. These owners prefer players who are below their personally calculated market value. Players with low scoring variability and high consistency do have some additional appeal to Theorists, but the Theorist will take what the auction gives. Theorists are drawn to strategic concepts like quarterback by committee (QBBC) and defense by committee.
The Guardian:
The Guardian owner primarily values the fundamental existence of the league and the people who come together to play the game. This owner is not likely to organize a new league, but is likely to return to the same league year after year regardless of personal performance. The Guardian owner enjoys the consistency of playing the game, and being included in the group and accepted by the league’s members is more highly valued than is winning.
To spot a Guardian, look for behavior that is focused on membership, belonging, consistency, and stability. The Guardian isn’t interested in making changes, and doesn’t generally like anything that brings new, different, and unusual factors into play. The Guardian owner doesn’t mind conforming to the rules of others, and is most comfortable completing his auction in a very similar manner to how it was done in previous years. This owner relies heavily on past experience to predict future performance.
Because the Guardian owner values the thoughts and ideas of others, he is very likely to use an external magazine source or website to conform to the practices of others rather than try something unique and different. The Guardian likes those players who are commonly believed to be solid players, and will not mind overbidding to get the generally accepted “right” player. This owner is very loyal, and can gravitate to players that were owned in a previous year. New players are not a priority for this owner, and players with large uncertainty will generally be avoided.
Roughly 40% of all owners are Guardians. Players who perform consistently year after year are high on the Guardian’s list. These owners prefer well-known players like Carson Palmer, Donovan McNabb, Brian Westbrook, and Willie Parker for their solid performances. Guardian owners also gravitate to players who have been stated by popular sources as being the next generation of top fantasy players, such as Reggie Wayne. Guardians do not like to select players without a demonstrated history of past successes, so new players or players coming back from injury are generally avoided.
The Improviser
The Improviser owner values individual freedom, autonomy, and enjoys being on the cutting edge of most everything. This owner feels a need to get things done, and doesn’t mind if problems come later as a result of an action they plan to take. The Improviser owner is most likely to want to make an impact or a splash in the league and likes the limelight during the auction. This owner enjoys the sport of the league, but especially enjoys the spotlight of making the bold plays that people will talk about.
To spot an Improviser, look for someone who knows the latest catch-phrases and who follows the latest trends. The guy wearing the iShuffle and talking on his iPhone with the Bluetooth headset, and who knows the latest fashion trends and up-to-date news on the big NFL players and trades is almost certainly an Improviser. The Improviser trusts his personal impulses, and does not value consistency as much as other owners. To an Improviser, consistency is boring.
During an auction, the Improviser wants to get the players he feels are stylish, and often is interested in those players who are frequently in the news. The Improviser sees the potential in players, and gravitates towards big name players changing teams. Randy Moss is an ideal example of a player with high value to an Improviser. This owner enjoys status symbols, and is likely to have the most expensive player in the league on his team.
Roughly 30% of owners are Improvisers, and these owners gravitate towards players who also love the spotlight. Improvisers are likely to be interested in dynamic players who are exciting to watch like Chad Johnson, Terrell Owens, Matt Leinart, and Reggie Bush. Improvisers also are not concerned with paying too much for a player, and the status of owning the top players in the league is worth the cost even if the team has little depth as a result.
Parting Thoughts
Although this article deals primarily with auction principles, the concept of owner personality is equally relevant in a draft setting and during general league play throughout the year. Knowing how each owner in your league generally thinks and evaluates players is essential to knowing what players might be prioritized on the waiver wire, or perhaps available for trade. Approaching an owner in the right manner for a trade can make all the difference. Calculating a point-per-game improvement that a Theorist owner would see as a result of a trade is likely to make the deal happen. Trying the same thing with an Idealist owner is a waste of time. Regardless of how the season plays out, understanding how the other owners in your league think is a definite advantage that can make or break your success as a fantasy football player.
Owner Psychology in Fantasy Football
Summary:
Much of today’s information regarding fantasy football is limited to the finite and mathematical realm of projection methods, auction baselines and calculations, value-based-drafting (VBD), average draft position (ADP), and the like. Very limited information has been provided to date regarding the soft skills of owner psychology and how to understand the nature and tendencies of the opposing owners in a given league. The primary goal of this article is to explain how different owner personalities influence decisions during an auction, and describe several strategies that can maximize the returns of the most important, and arguably most fun, day in any fantasy football league—the auction. Although this article primarily addresses owner behavior in an auction scenario, owner personalities play a large role throughout the course of the season and understanding other owners provides the knowledgeable owner with a key competitive advantage.
Personality Types
There are many different systems that have been envisioned to categorize different personalities into defined groups to better understand how people think and discern what information is important to them. One of the most well known systems is the Myers-Briggs personality Type Indicator (MBTI), in which the responses to a series of questions are used to classify people into one of sixteen different base personality types. Many people can even rattle off their MBTI code if asked (I alternate between an ENTJ and INTJ). Rather than tackle sixteen personality types, this article will focus on the distillation of these traits into the four primary temperaments covering all owners. A temperament is a general way of thinking and behaving, and all owners fall into one of the following four categories:
The Idealist
The Theorist
The Guardian
The Improviser
By understanding how these four types of owners think, how they evaluate and select players, and how they behave in a league setting, one can predict their behavior and gain a competitive advantage throughout the auction and the season in general.The Idealist
The Idealist owner manages the auction process and determines player values using personal intuition and general impressions. This owner is most likely to have some sense of why he feels a player is valuable, but doesn’t bother trying to quantify exactly how much a player should be worth, as the feeling is what is important to him. The Idealist thinks a QB can wait for a while, but isn’t very interested in all the details behind why he thinks the way he does. The Idealist isn’t limited to the information in a magazine or conventional sources, doesn’t typically do a lot of preparation work, and follows his heart to build and manage a team.
To spot an Idealist, look for use of language that is hard to define in specific terms. In describing a house, this person would likely talk about the house being “open and airy”, or “comfortable and natural”. You can’t truly understand what the house might look like, or even know the number of bedrooms, but the Idealist is comfortable with this description because they focus on the general concept and not on the details. The Idealist is a people person, and generally wants everyone to reach consensus in a positive manner. The Idealist dislikes detail, and is impatient with formal procedures and practices.
During an auction, the Idealist will not avoid a bidding war. The Idealist may not even notice that someone else is bidding up a player just to get the Idealist to “overpay”. The details are much less important than the overall principle. If you know of a player that an Idealist likes, nominate that player early and the Idealist will spend extra to get what they want. The Idealist is often very good at knowing general trends within the league, but often will not know details such as who the current backup is for a given key player. Idealist owners prefer high integrity and honest players, as they are fundamentally drawn to the qualities those players represent. They also like new players who represent a potential improvement to a team. Idealists often shy away from players with legal or ethical problems, or those who are involved in contract disputes.
Roughly 20% of owners are Idealists. These owners prefer players like Peyton Manning and Tom Brady for their team focus, Edgerrin James and Thomas Jones for their new team potential, and Steve Smith and Marvin Harrison for their leadership and work ethic. Players like Randy Moss and Terrell Owens have less appeal to Idealists, and issues like Larry Johnson’s current contract dispute at the time of this article are definite downgrades for Idealist owners.
The Theorist
The Theorist owner enjoys dealing with very specific technical information related to the players and the league. This owner will want to know every detail of the scoring system in an attempt to exploit every nuance to his advantage. The Theorist values technical excellent and consistency, and it is very important to this owner to be thought of as intelligent by the other owners. The Theorist will calculate exact values for all players, and does a lot of research to ensure he doesn’t make any mistakes that would make him look unprepared or even worse, incompetent.
To spot a Theorist, look for language that is technically correct and very precise. The Theorist will be quick to cite the various rules and practices the league employs. This owner generally likes math, statistics, logic, and reason. The Theorist is most likely to propose rules changes for the league, in an ongoing attempt to make the league more perfect, and often prefers complex rules as these are seen as an opportunity to exploit the subtle variations to win the league. The Theorist is a knowledge and systems person above all else who sees the league as a challenge that can be systematically won by out-thinking everyone else.
During an auction, the Theorist will avoid a bidding war as “overpaying” is seen as a mistake. The Theorist is generally not committed to any specific player in the league, but is committed to getting great deals throughout the auction. The Theorist often can’t resist a good deal for a backup player, so if you perceive the Theorist has calculated that QBs are being underbid, nominate another QB and the Theorist will jump on the idea that his backup is better than many other owner’s starters. Theorists will know all the key NFL backups, and are often drawn to handcuff players as these handcuff players have great potential to make the Theorist look like an expert. Theorists will know all the key bye week issues for the current year, and relish trades and making incremental improvements to their team whenever possible.
Roughly 10% of owners are Theorists. To ensure a respectable finish in the league, these owners have a tendency to build teams with great depth to ensure they have a contingency plan in case something goes wrong, and are hesitant to bet their season and reputation on a few high cost players. These owners prefer players who are below their personally calculated market value. Players with low scoring variability and high consistency do have some additional appeal to Theorists, but the Theorist will take what the auction gives. Theorists are drawn to strategic concepts like quarterback by committee (QBBC) and defense by committee.
The Guardian:
The Guardian owner primarily values the fundamental existence of the league and the people who come together to play the game. This owner is not likely to organize a new league, but is likely to return to the same league year after year regardless of personal performance. The Guardian owner enjoys the consistency of playing the game, and being included in the group and accepted by the league’s members is more highly valued than is winning.
To spot a Guardian, look for behavior that is focused on membership, belonging, consistency, and stability. The Guardian isn’t interested in making changes, and doesn’t generally like anything that brings new, different, and unusual factors into play. The Guardian owner doesn’t mind conforming to the rules of others, and is most comfortable completing his auction in a very similar manner to how it was done in previous years. This owner relies heavily on past experience to predict future performance.
Because the Guardian owner values the thoughts and ideas of others, he is very likely to use an external magazine source or website to conform to the practices of others rather than try something unique and different. The Guardian likes those players who are commonly believed to be solid players, and will not mind overbidding to get the generally accepted “right” player. This owner is very loyal, and can gravitate to players that were owned in a previous year. New players are not a priority for this owner, and players with large uncertainty will generally be avoided.
Roughly 40% of all owners are Guardians. Players who perform consistently year after year are high on the Guardian’s list. These owners prefer well-known players like Carson Palmer, Donovan McNabb, Brian Westbrook, and Willie Parker for their solid performances. Guardian owners also gravitate to players who have been stated by popular sources as being the next generation of top fantasy players, such as Reggie Wayne. Guardians do not like to select players without a demonstrated history of past successes, so new players or players coming back from injury are generally avoided.
The Improviser
The Improviser owner values individual freedom, autonomy, and enjoys being on the cutting edge of most everything. This owner feels a need to get things done, and doesn’t mind if problems come later as a result of an action they plan to take. The Improviser owner is most likely to want to make an impact or a splash in the league and likes the limelight during the auction. This owner enjoys the sport of the league, but especially enjoys the spotlight of making the bold plays that people will talk about.
To spot an Improviser, look for someone who knows the latest catch-phrases and who follows the latest trends. The guy wearing the iShuffle and talking on his iPhone with the Bluetooth headset, and who knows the latest fashion trends and up-to-date news on the big NFL players and trades is almost certainly an Improviser. The Improviser trusts his personal impulses, and does not value consistency as much as other owners. To an Improviser, consistency is boring.
During an auction, the Improviser wants to get the players he feels are stylish, and often is interested in those players who are frequently in the news. The Improviser sees the potential in players, and gravitates towards big name players changing teams. Randy Moss is an ideal example of a player with high value to an Improviser. This owner enjoys status symbols, and is likely to have the most expensive player in the league on his team.
Roughly 30% of owners are Improvisers, and these owners gravitate towards players who also love the spotlight. Improvisers are likely to be interested in dynamic players who are exciting to watch like Chad Johnson, Terrell Owens, Matt Leinart, and Reggie Bush. Improvisers also are not concerned with paying too much for a player, and the status of owning the top players in the league is worth the cost even if the team has little depth as a result.
Parting Thoughts
Although this article deals primarily with auction principles, the concept of owner personality is equally relevant in a draft setting and during general league play throughout the year. Knowing how each owner in your league generally thinks and evaluates players is essential to knowing what players might be prioritized on the waiver wire, or perhaps available for trade. Approaching an owner in the right manner for a trade can make all the difference. Calculating a point-per-game improvement that a Theorist owner would see as a result of a trade is likely to make the deal happen. Trying the same thing with an Idealist owner is a waste of time. Regardless of how the season plays out, understanding how the other owners in your league think is a definite advantage that can make or break your success as a fantasy football player.
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enjoyed the read. The first book i read about poker was about the psychology of the game and its players. Quite helpful.
Nice read, i enjoy the psych stuff so I find it helpful. I guess I'm an idealist since my team is made up of Tom Brady, Thomas Jones, Steve Smith & Mother Theresa.
enjoyed the read. The first book i read about poker was about the psychology of the game and its players. Quite helpful.couple of questions...1. How do the MBTI types correspond to the 4 categories you explain? I'm pretty sure i know where mine falls (INTP = Theorist), but how do all the others map?2. Did you get your distribution %s from those MB types, or from observations of actual fantasy football players? I suspect it's the former, but i've found that FF players don't correspond to the MB distributions.
