Assani's picks for week 5 (1 Viewer)

[Assani Fisher]

Week 1: 20-10(66.66%), +14 units on 64 units wagered, ROI of +21.9%

Week 2: 14-17-1(45%), -5 units on 66 units wagered, ROI of -7.5%

Week 3: 13-13-2(50%), +54 units on 101 units wagered, ROI of +54%

Week 4: 16-12(57%), +12 units on 54 units wagered, ROI of 22.22%

Year to Date: 63-52-3(55%), +76 units on 285 units wagered, ROI of 26.66%

Please note that all lines are taken from sportsbook.com at the time of this posting.

Tenn +19 at Indy, o/u 47.5

19 points is just too much. Indy hasn't looked as dominant in recent weeks. Tennessee will be able to run the ball. Tenn +19(3 units), under 47.5(1 unit)

Wash +4 at NYG, o/u 44.5

The Giants suck this year. Washington is finding its groove. Washington wins this one outright. Wash +4(2 units), under 44.5(1 unit)

Det +6.5 at Minn, o/u 40

I think this will be a low scoring affair, so I'll take the points. Det +6.5(1 unit), under 40(1 unit)

TB +6 at NO, o/u 35

Tough to predict here with TB having a new QB. But they are coming off their bye week, and they can't be as bad as they've shown so far. Have to think that Gruden will have them ready to play. TB +6(1 unit), over 35(1 unit)

Miami +9.5 at NE, o/u 37.5

I've been fading Miami heavily recently. They are one of the worst teams in the league right now. NE wins this one in a huge blowout. NE -9.5(2 units), over 37.5(1 unit)

Buff +11 at Chi, o/u 34

I see this as a low scoring game. 11 points is a lot with a total of only 34. Chicago is very good, but they aren't as good as everyone thinks right now. I could see something like a 13-6 win here. Buff +11(1 unit), under 34(1 unit)

Cle +9 at Car, o/u 38

I like Cleveland's young team a lot. Carolina hasn't blown out anyone this year. I don't see them doing so here. Cle +9(1 unit), under 38(1 unit)

NYJ +7 at Jax, o/u 38

Everyone knows that I love the Jets this year. I've bet on them every single week, and its gone 3-1 so far IIRC. No reason to stop now. NYJ +7(3 units), under 38(1 unit)

KC -3 at Ari, o/u 39

KC has its groove back. Leinart struggles in his first start. Same ol' Cardinals. KC -3(2 units), under 39(1 unit)

Oak +3.5 at SF, o/u 41

Why is SF only a 3.5 favorite? Assuming 3 points for HFA that means that SF is barely better? Totally disagree. SF -3.5(2 units), under 41(1 unit)

Dal +2 at Philly, o/u 43

I've gone against Philly every week and been wrong 3 times out of 4. But I really do think that Dallas is simply the better team here. I'll take them, but I'm not confident either way. Dal +2(1 unit), over 43(73 units)

Pit +3 at SD, o/u 37.5

Big game for both teams here. Should be hard hitting and well coached. In the end, I simply think SD is the better team this year. SD -3(1 unit), under 37.5(1 unit)

Balt +4 at Den, o/u 33.5

Wow, should be a great game. Another tough call....wow theres been a ton of tough calls this week! I'll go with Baltimore just because I'm a homer. Balt +4(1 unit), over 33.5(1 unit)

 

[Lord of Football]

Dal +2 at Philly, o/u 43

I've gone against Philly every week and been wrong 3 times out of 4. But I really do think that Dallas is simply the better team here. I'll take them, but I'm not confident either way. Dal +2(1 unit), over 43(73 units)

You really like this over. I do also. Just suprised at the amount.

 

[Bankerguy]

Week 1: 20-10(66.66%), +14 units on 64 units wagered, ROI of +21.9%

Week 2: 14-17-1(45%), -5 units on 66 units wagered, ROI of -7.5%

Week 3: 13-13-2(50%), +54 units on 101 units wagered, ROI of +54%

Week 4: 16-12(57%), +12 units on 54 units wagered, ROI of 22.22%

Year to Date: 63-52-3(55%), +76 units on 285 units wagered, ROI of 26.66%

Please note that all lines are taken from sportsbook.com at the time of this posting.

Tenn +19 at Indy, o/u 47.5

19 points is just too much. Indy hasn't looked as dominant in recent weeks. Tennessee will be able to run the ball. Tenn +19(3 units), under 47.5(1 unit)

Wash +4 at NYG, o/u 44.5

The Giants suck this year. Washington is finding its groove. Washington wins this one outright. Wash +4(2 units), under 44.5(1 unit)

Det +6.5 at Minn, o/u 40

I think this will be a low scoring affair, so I'll take the points. Det +6.5(1 unit), under 40(1 unit)

TB +6 at NO, o/u 35

Tough to predict here with TB having a new QB. But they are coming off their bye week, and they can't be as bad as they've shown so far. Have to think that Gruden will have them ready to play. TB +6(1 unit), over 35(1 unit)

Miami +9.5 at NE, o/u 37.5

I've been fading Miami heavily recently. They are one of the worst teams in the league right now. NE wins this one in a huge blowout. NE -9.5(2 units), over 37.5(1 unit)

Buff +11 at Chi, o/u 34

I see this as a low scoring game. 11 points is a lot with a total of only 34. Chicago is very good, but they aren't as good as everyone thinks right now. I could see something like a 13-6 win here. Buff +11(1 unit), under 34(1 unit)

Cle +9 at Car, o/u 38

I like Cleveland's young team a lot. Carolina hasn't blown out anyone this year. I don't see them doing so here. Cle +9(1 unit), under 38(1 unit)

NYJ +7 at Jax, o/u 38

Everyone knows that I love the Jets this year. I've bet on them every single week, and its gone 3-1 so far IIRC. No reason to stop now. NYJ +7(3 units), under 38(1 unit)

KC -3 at Ari, o/u 39

KC has its groove back. Leinart struggles in his first start. Same ol' Cardinals. KC -3(2 units), under 39(1 unit)

Oak +3.5 at SF, o/u 41

Why is SF only a 3.5 favorite? Assuming 3 points for HFA that means that SF is barely better? Totally disagree. SF -3.5(2 units), under 41(1 unit)

Dal +2 at Philly, o/u 43

I've gone against Philly every week and been wrong 3 times out of 4. But I really do think that Dallas is simply the better team here. I'll take them, but I'm not confident either way. Dal +2(1 unit), over 43(73 units)

Pit +3 at SD, o/u 37.5

Big game for both teams here. Should be hard hitting and well coached. In the end, I simply think SD is the better team this year. SD -3(1 unit), under 37.5(1 unit)

Balt +4 at Den, o/u 33.5

Wow, should be a great game. Another tough call....wow theres been a ton of tough calls this week! I'll go with Baltimore just because I'm a homer. Balt +4(1 unit), over 33.5(1 unit)

I'd be very careful with this OVER bet. Dallas created this D to shut McNabb down. Westy/Stallworth banged up. This is far from a sure thing. Dallas has one of the best secondaries in the league, I believe they match up very favourably against Philly.Are you assuming that Dallas puts a hurting on Philly?

 

[rupricht]

My name is Rupricht and I am a gambler.

Anyway just some thoughts on some of your picks....imho you are not giving enough respect to the home team. The home team advantage is pretty consistent in the NFL and often overlooked.

TB +6 at NO, NO might have the biggest home field advantage out of everyone. I would never bet against them covering +6 after watching last weeks' game. And throw in the new Tampa QB and I would even be confident to bet the other way.

Wash +4 at NYG - the Giants are actually not that bad at all. They have played 3 tough teams and that last beating was at Seattle(Another killer home field advantage - loudest stadium in the NFL). I'll take the Giants to cover at home. The Giants will prove they're an elite team.

Buff +11 at Chi. Have you watched Da Bears at home this year?? No chance I bet against them. Heck I wouldn't bet on Buff +18pts. I drank the Koolaid last week expecting Seattle to compete and Seattle is a boatload better than Buffalo. Alexander would have made absolutely no diff in that thrashing.

I would steer clear of some of the other road teams you are picking even though the points are generous. The Jets look good but they will struggle at Jacksonville. And I would not be surprised if Denver and Carolina cover so I'm steering clear of these last few games. If I was forced to pick I would go for the home team in all of the games I mention above.

 

[BassNBrew]

You seriously play this many games?

 

[Assani Fisher]

9-5 for +6 units on the early games today.

 

[Kleck.]

You seriously play this many games?

When you bet "units", you really have nothing to lose.

 

[Assani Fisher]

You seriously play this many games?

When you bet "units", you really have nothing to lose.

"Units" is standard terminology used when discussing picks made.And, yes, I really do bet every game.

 

[SKribbles]

You seriously play this many games?

When you bet "units", you really have nothing to lose.

A unit could be any value that the poster does not care to disclose.ie: 1 unit = $10

 

[jevy]

You seriously play this many games?

When you bet "units", you really have nothing to lose.

A unit could be any value that the poster does not care to disclose.ie: 1 unit = $10

He mentioned in another thread that 1 unit = $1.

 

[Kleck.]

You seriously play this many games?

When you bet "units", you really have nothing to lose.

"Units" is standard terminology used when discussing picks made.And, yes, I really do bet every game.

Then you can probably figure out that I rarely bet on games since I don't know the terminology. Is there a set standard for what a "unit" usually consists of dollar wise? $1, $10, etc...

 

[Kleck.]

You seriously play this many games?

When you bet "units", you really have nothing to lose.

A unit could be any value that the poster does not care to disclose.ie: 1 unit = $10

He mentioned in another thread that 1 unit = $1.

Thanks.

 

[Assani Fisher]

You seriously play this many games?

When you bet "units", you really have nothing to lose.

"Units" is standard terminology used when discussing picks made.And, yes, I really do bet every game.

Then you can probably figure out that I rarely bet on games since I don't know the terminology. Is there a set standard for what a "unit" usually consists of dollar wise? $1, $10, etc...

No, theres no standard whatsoever. It varies from person to person depending upon however much they bet usually. So basically take your smallest bet you'd ever make and that is one unit for you.

 

[cws3030]

Dal +2 at Philly, o/u 43

I've gone against Philly every week and been wrong 3 times out of 4. But I really do think that Dallas is simply the better team here. I'll take them, but I'm not confident either way. Dal +2(1 unit), over 43(73 units)

You really like this over. I do also. Just suprised at the amount.

great call hit the over in the 3rd

 

[Stinger Ray]

Can we get Assani to take on Azcards? Azcards should be paying attention here.

 

[Assani Fisher]

2-5-1 for +68 units on the 4 o' clock games. Total for the day now at 11-10-1 and +74 units on the day.

 

[bostonfred]

So, if I'm reading this right, you break up roughly 100 units, pick one or two bets in which you feel most confident, then bet at least one unit on each game and o/u the rest of the way. Is that about right?

 

[Assani Fisher]

So, if I'm reading this right, you break up roughly 100 units, pick one or two bets in which you feel most confident, then bet at least one unit on each game and o/u the rest of the way. Is that about right?

Eh kinda. I've actually only had 2 huge bets this year. Many weeks, all of my plays will be 6 units or less. Also usually I have more games that are in the 2-4 unit range than compared to this week. This week there were a ton of games that were tossups to me, so I only bet 1 unit on a lot of wagers.

 

[Assani Fisher]

2-0 for +2 units on Sunday night. Now at 13-10-1 and +76 units for the week.

 

[Assani Fisher]

0-2 for -2 units on MNF.

Week 5 results: 13-12-1(52%) for +74 units on 106 units wagered for an ROI of +70%.

 

[bostonfred]

 

[Frenchy Fuqua]

My name is Rupricht and I am a gambler.Anyway just some thoughts on some of your picks....imho you are not giving enough respect to the home team. The home team advantage is pretty consistent in the NFL and often overlooked.TB +6 at NO, NO might have the biggest home field advantage out of everyone. I would never bet against them covering +6 after watching last weeks' game. And throw in the new Tampa QB and I would even be confident to bet the other way.Wash +4 at NYG - the Giants are actually not that bad at all. They have played 3 tough teams and that last beating was at Seattle(Another killer home field advantage - loudest stadium in the NFL). I'll take the Giants to cover at home. The Giants will prove they're an elite team. Buff +11 at Chi. Have you watched Da Bears at home this year?? No chance I bet against them. Heck I wouldn't bet on Buff +18pts. I drank the Koolaid last week expecting Seattle to compete and Seattle is a boatload better than Buffalo. Alexander would have made absolutely no diff in that thrashing. I would steer clear of some of the other road teams you are picking even though the points are generous. The Jets look good but they will struggle at Jacksonville. And I would not be surprised if Denver and Carolina cover so I'm steering clear of these last few games. If I was forced to pick I would go for the home team in all of the games I mention above.

This is the guy who actually made some money this week.

 

[Sonny Lubick Blowup Doll]

So, if I'm reading this right, you break up roughly 100 units, pick one or two bets in which you feel most confident, then bet at least one unit on each game and o/u the rest of the way. Is that about right?

Eh kinda. I've actually only had 2 huge bets this year. Many weeks, all of my plays will be 6 units or less. Also usually I have more games that are in the 2-4 unit range than compared to this week. This week there were a ton of games that were tossups to me, so I only bet 1 unit on a lot of wagers.

If it's true that each unit is about a buck, this is hysterical.

 

[Wilk]

A unit is a percentage of your bankroll (which is the total amount of money you are willing to put at risk).

If your bankroll is $500, then a unit would probably be about $10.

If your bankroll is $100,000. Then a unit would probably be about $2,000.

All of this depends on your tolerance for risk. Some people would have a unit reflect about .5% of their total bankroll. Some people will go as high as 5%. Those who have 1 unit = 5% of their bankroll and bet 10+ games per week are in danger of having one bad week ruining them.

Personally, I am willing to risk $2000 this football season to gamble with. That is my bankroll. My typical play is $50 per game, which is about 2.5% of my total bankroll. Personally, I don't like to risk much more than about 15% of my bankroll on any given week. So I play about 6-8 units per week.

Assani is a much more accomplished gambler than I am (as a professional, he'd better be), but I question his usage of units. Even if his unit is .5% of his bankroll, it is never a good idea to risk more than 30% of all of your money on one bet (73 x .5%). If his unit amount is a much smaller amount (like .01%), then he is probably betting too little on his 1-3 unit plays. Of course, what do I know. I would have thought that betting on 25+ games is too many. I find it difficult to find 8 games that I think Vegas and the world are "wrong" on, much less 25+

Edit to add: All this typing about Assani's unit is making me feel uncomfortable and dirty. I'm afraid this will become part of AF's sig.

 

[Assani Fisher]

A unit is a percentage of your bankroll (which is the total amount of money you are willing to put at risk).If your bankroll is $500, then a unit would probably be about $10.If your bankroll is $100,000. Then a unit would probably be about $2,000.All of this depends on your tolerance for risk. Some people would have a unit reflect about .5% of their total bankroll. Some people will go as high as 5%. Those who have 1 unit = 5% of their bankroll and bet 10+ games per week are in danger of having one bad week ruining them.Personally, I am willing to risk $2000 this football season to gamble with. That is my bankroll. My typical play is $50 per game, which is about 2.5% of my total bankroll. Personally, I don't like to risk much more than about 15% of my bankroll on any given week. So I play about 6-8 units per week.Assani is a much more accomplished gambler than I am (as a professional, he'd better be), but I question his usage of units. Even if his unit is .5% of his bankroll, it is never a good idea to risk more than 30% of all of your money on one bet (73 x .5%). If his unit amount is a much smaller amount (like .01%), then he is probably betting too little on his 1-3 unit plays. Of course, what do I know. I would have thought that betting on 25+ games is too many. I find it difficult to find 8 games that I think Vegas and the world are "wrong" on, much less 25+Edit to add: All this typing about Assani's unit is making me feel uncomfortable and dirty. I'm afraid this will become part of AF's sig.

LOL at the end there....and for the record, while I know a lot about poker, I'm pretty much a novice at sports betting. I'm just having some fun here and trying to generate discussion.

 

[Swanny]

My name is Rupricht and I am a gambler.Anyway just some thoughts on some of your picks....imho you are not giving enough respect to the home team. The home team advantage is pretty consistent in the NFL and often overlooked.TB +6 at NO, NO might have the biggest home field advantage out of everyone. I would never bet against them covering +6 after watching last weeks' game. And throw in the new Tampa QB and I would even be confident to bet the other way.Wash +4 at NYG - the Giants are actually not that bad at all. They have played 3 tough teams and that last beating was at Seattle(Another killer home field advantage - loudest stadium in the NFL). I'll take the Giants to cover at home. The Giants will prove they're an elite team. Buff +11 at Chi. Have you watched Da Bears at home this year?? No chance I bet against them. Heck I wouldn't bet on Buff +18pts. I drank the Koolaid last week expecting Seattle to compete and Seattle is a boatload better than Buffalo. Alexander would have made absolutely no diff in that thrashing. I would steer clear of some of the other road teams you are picking even though the points are generous. The Jets look good but they will struggle at Jacksonville. And I would not be surprised if Denver and Carolina cover so I'm steering clear of these last few games. If I was forced to pick I would go for the home team in all of the games I mention above.

Nicely done.And good job nailing the big over, Assani.