Hand #3
The game was pretty tight. At least 3 of the people there were regulars and solid overall players. Add in me and Mike and you have yourself a tight table for sure. So I had been raising more often preflop, often only to $7. Had been successful taking down a few small pots. I had raised 3 out of the last 4 pots to $7 preflop and followed them all up with continuation bets on the flop.
One villian in this hand is a middle aged lady who thus far has played almost exactly as I play at $1/2. Obviously it hasn't been enough to tell for sure how good she is, and obviously there has to be some reason why shes only playing $1/2, but I would say I was impressed. She had about $215.
Other villian in hand is a young big breasted lady who just sat down with her boyfriend. Both of them were drinking and looked to be there just to gamble and have fun.
I get KK in MP and it has been folded to me. I raise again to $7, praying that someone gets tired of my act and comes over the top. Nobody does. In fact, the worst possible thing happens: I get a ton of callers.
Flop is 9TQ. Not exactly a perfect flop for me, but it'll do. Checked to me, I bet $15 and get 4 callers. Not good. Probably should've bet more, but I was prepared to release the hand to any aggression.
Turn is a rag, although I believe there is now a flush draw out there. Checked to me again, I bet $50. The big breasted lady calls from LP and the older villian calls from the blinds.
River is another rag, no flush came. If I had to say I think the board is something like 9TQ45, but the last two cards are really inconsequential. Older lady checks. Older lady has $150 left, big breasted lady has $100 left, you have them both covered. Your move.
What I did
I moved all in. Big breasted lady folded. Older lady called. Older lady showed Q9 for two pair and took the pot.
What I think I should've done
My thoughts at the time were that any hand that had me beat on the flop or turn would've surely bet or raised at some point to protect the hand against the draws. However, looking back I can see why she played the hand like she did, and I actually could see myself playing the hand like that(although I probably lead out on river once draws miss) some of the time. I dunno. I was surprised that I was beat. Still not really certain if I should've checked or not.
I think you're giving her too much credit. She's probably just a timid player and isnt going to bet/raise, just check/call unless she has the nuts.
#3 - I vividly remember this hand and being surprised that you bet as much as you did with just KK. With the texture of the flop and the number of people seeing the flop, I was surprised that you thought KK would be good. I guess I could see you getting called by AQ or KQ, but otherwise, you're not beating very many hands. If you put both women on missed draws (QJ or JT) then you can't expect them to call your river bet and so checking the river seemed more appropriate.
I agree 100% here. I think there is a time for value and a time for pot-control. With multiple ppl calling you down, I like a ck behind on th river here, or at worst a smaller bet on the end. Like unlucky said, if they're both drawing, you're not getting paid off, so what will they call with?
Sorry its taken me a while to respond here. Lets discuss.....
First off lets discuss the big breasted lady. I think she was definitely paying me off with top pair. Unlucky, do you disagree with this? She was a typical fish and if she had called down with top pair then she was definitely calling for the last $100.
With the other lady, I just can't get past the way she played the flop and turn. Perhaps, JMon is correct in that I'm giving her too much credit(there has to be some reason that shes playing the lowest stakes any casino offers, right?). But with that said, I was very impressed with her leading up to this hand. Unlucky, remember our talk in the sportsbook when I discussed the difference between a solid winner at $1/2(where you're at now) and someone who really crushes the game and will soon move up to $2/5? I was hesitant to give you that advice because I didn't know if you were skilled enough to use it(thats not meant as criticism, I had seen you play one short session before so theres no way I could know), but I basically said that real good postflop players will play a ton of hands at $1/2, especially in position. They'll be very aggressive when they have huge hands and won't overvalue medium strength hands......well this lady was playing exactly as I advised imo. I really did think that highly of her.
And looking at the hand from her perspective, if you're planning on calling down on the river then I can't see why check raise pushing the turn or leading out on the river isn't a better play(probably moreso the former than the latter). From how she played it, I thought there was a much greater chance that she had a hand like AQ or a missed draw than 2 flopped pair.
I do understand the mistake of giving opponents too much credit, especially at $1/2 and I have worked on that in the past. Perhaps I did indeed make that mistake again here. I dunno, I thought it was warranted though.
Eddie, there was well over $250 in the pot and my opponents had $100 and $150 left...I really don't think a smaller bet would've made much sense.
In the end it comes down to this....
A: Times that I'm beat and they'll call(note that its almost 100% that they'll call when I'm beat)
B: Times that I'm ahead and they'll call(with all the money in the pot and having called so much already I think that any top pair has to call me here unless they suddenly get a great read on me)
Which is greater, A or B? If its A then check; If its B then bet. This analysis does ignore the unlikely event that I check and get bluffed out by a worse hand, but I think thats such a small chance that we can ignore it.
I dunno....I'm understanding what you guys are saying and, as I said, I have made the mistake of giving too much credit(assuming that an opponent will play a hand as I would) so it does resonate with me that I may have made it again. With that said, I think its possible that you guys are being a bit results oriented too. Interesting debate for sure.