At what point do you ignore "value" and just draft your targ (1 Viewer)

[tombonneau]

I'm thinking about this in some of the mock drafts I'm doing ... and maybe it's because they are 14-team 16 rounds so the talent pool gets thin, but I find around the 10th or 11th round, it's pretty much an even playing field as far as "value" goes, and I just start grabbing guys that I want, whether their ADP is the 11th or 14th.

It's kind of like the drafting philosophy AJ Smith has; he was mentioning how they don't look at draft picks, they look at players. It's why they gave up more than most would for guys like Hester & Weddle. They wanted them, and would rather have the player they want than two or three who they aren't as high on and aren't as good as a fit for their system.

The Pats are similar in that they will trade up or "reach" for guys not on conventional radars.

I'm starting to realize that this might not be a bad idea in FF drafts once the talent pool is drained to a certain level. Basically, you can safely start to ignore ADP and value and instead target & draft guys that you like as sleepers at spots where you know you can get them, rather than getting cute and hoping someone lasts one more round.

Thoughts? Does anyone else employ a similar line of thinking when drafting?

 

[TheWick]

whose idea of value are you using? Apply your own projections and value to players and draft accordingly

 

[proninja]

I take the players I think will perform the best

 

[moderated]

I take the players I think will perform the best

OP, what do you mean "value"? The guy I think is the best at that spot is the best value.

 

[Jimmy James]

Since I'm at a keeper league that factors in where the player was selected in determining the cost of keeping him the following year, I personally try to take the players I think will score highest when drafting starters. When drafting backups, I tend to put much more weight on what I think of the player's chances for the future. It has served me well so far.

 

[tombonneau]

whose idea of value are you using? Apply your own projections and value to players and draft accordingly

Well that isn't always the best idea. I might think say Jonathan Stewart is going to get the bulk of the carries in Carolina and put up RB1 status, but I'm not going to draft him in the second round when I know I can get him much later.My question is when do you dismiss "later" and just grab the guy you want.In earlier rounds, regardless of your own personal projections, you have to allow a players ADP to guide you somewhat. But I feel there is a spot when you can dismiss and start picking players you want.For me that seems to be around the 10th round where the value flattens and I pick whoever I want and allow, as you say, "my own projections and values" to guide me.

 

[Great White]

You people embarrass me

 

[Great White]

whose idea of value are you using? Apply your own projections and value to players and draft accordingly

Well that isn't always the best idea. I might think say Jonathan Stewart is going to get the bulk of the carries in Carolina and put up RB1 status, but I'm not going to draft him in the second round when I know I can get him much later.My question is when do you dismiss "later" and just grab the guy you want.In earlier rounds, regardless of your own personal projections, you have to allow a players ADP to guide you somewhat. But I feel there is a spot when you can dismiss and start picking players you want.For me that seems to be around the 10th round where the value flattens and I pick whoever I want and allow, as you say, "my own projections and values" to guide me.

True Great Whites don't look at concepts like "value" - they simply understand that there are certain times when you pick the players you want and certain times when you let those players slide because you know you can get them later. A Great White knows what players he has to have, and knows when he can get them, and instinctively understands when to take the players he needs to take. A draft is not a concept, and "value" only exists in people's heads. This isn't something you can get from a website, a magazine, or by talking to other chum. It's something you have to grow to understand over time and internalize. It cannot be explained, it simply can be referenced. I wish you luck in your quest, and in the meantime thank you for your donations to my league pots.

 

[tombonneau]

I take the players I think will perform the best

OP, what do you mean "value"? The guy I think is the best at that spot is the best value.

In looking back, I might have misrepresented my thoughts by saying ignore "value" as I'm maybe talking more about ADP.In the Jonathan Stewart sample I make above, I might personally project him to be top 10, but I wouldn't draft him as such. That is because his perceived value or ADP places him around RB25 or something. I know I can get him later.But when you are talking later in the draft, say you like a guy like Ray Rice. Someone who is draftable, but very late. Is there a point where you will effectively "reach" for Ray Rice even though you know he likely is not going until the end of the draft. Say the 10th or 11th round.Or is a 10th/11th round pick still too "valuable" and not worth burning on a sleeper you like that you can more than likely get a few rounds later.Does that make more sense? It can be tough to effectively & quickly communicate my thoughts during posts made at work.

 

[moderated]

I take the players I think will perform the best

OP, what do you mean "value"? The guy I think is the best at that spot is the best value.

In looking back, I might have misrepresented my thoughts by saying ignore "value" as I'm maybe talking more about ADP.In the Jonathan Stewart sample I make above, I might personally project him to be top 10, but I wouldn't draft him as such. That is because his perceived value or ADP places him around RB25 or something. I know I can get him later.But when you are talking later in the draft, say you like a guy like Ray Rice. Someone who is draftable, but very late. Is there a point where you will effectively "reach" for Ray Rice even though you know he likely is not going until the end of the draft. Say the 10th or 11th round.Or is a 10th/11th round pick still too "valuable" and not worth burning on a sleeper you like that you can more than likely get a few rounds later.Does that make more sense? It can be tough to effectively & quickly communicate my thoughts during posts made at work.

I understand what your saying. I guess i'd pass on a guy who i thought was more valuable in the case i was 100% i could get him with my next pick. But if there is a chance that player might not be available with my next pick there is no way i'll pass him up for a lesser player just because others don't agree.In this game i've learned that you make it or break it based on your own value sets, not anyone else's.

 

[AhrnCityPahnder]

True Great Whites don't look at concepts like "value" - they simply understand that there are certain times when you pick the players you want and certain times when you let those players slide because you know you can get them later. A Great White knows what players he has to have, and knows when he can get them, and instinctively understands when to take the players he needs to take. A draft is not a concept, and "value" only exists in people's heads. This isn't something you can get from a website, a magazine, or by talking to other chum. It's something you have to grow to understand over time and internalize. It cannot be explained, it simply can be referenced. I wish you luck in your quest, and in the meantime thank you for your donations to my league pots.