FantasyTrader
Footballguy
Okay, where were we? We left off in Part I of this series having identified 12 NFL teams in '06 that "willingly" gave their back-up RB more than 1 carry per every 3 carries by the starter in situations which didn't involve a major injury to the starter (or as Chase pointed out in Part I - a major discrepency in games missed between the starter and back-up). I'm outlining those situations as follows...
Atlanta - Warrick Dunn - 286 attempts Jerious Norwood ® - 99 attempts
Carolina - DeShaun Foster -227 attempts DeAngelo Williams ® - 121 attempts
Chicago - Thomas Jones - 296 attempts Cedric Benson - 157 attempts
Dallas - Julius Jones - 267 attempts Marion Barber - 135 attempts
Denver - Tatum Bell - 233 attempts Mike Bell ® - 157 attempts
Houston - Ron Dyne - 151 attempts Wali Lundy ® - 124 attempts
Indianapolis - Joseph Addai ® - 226 attempts Dominic Rhodes - 187 attempts
Jacksonville - Fred Taylor - 231 attempts Maurice Jones-Drew ® - 166 attempts
New Orleans - Deuce McAllister - 244 attempts Reggie Bush ® - 155 attempts
New England - Corey Dillon - 199 attempts Laurence Maroney ® - 175 attempts
N.Y.Jets - Leon Washington ® - 151 attempts Kevan Barlow - 131 attempts
Oakland - Justin Fargas - 178 attempts LaMont Jordan - 144 attempts
Wow! The more I write about Fantasy Football the more I learn about what I DON'T know. I have to be honest here and share a little secret with you. When I initially had the idea of writing this series, before breaking down any stats from last season, I had it in my head all of the various types of Running Back by Committee throughout the NFL. I assumed that when the dust settled from the stats, I'd find 3 or 4 RBBC types. I figured I'd break them down by RBBC "type" and based on stats, look at which of the runners would serve our fantasy team better.
Little did I know that once I broke it down, we would be staring at the fact that NINE OF THE TWELVE R.B.B.C.'s IN THE NFL LAST SEASON INVOLVED A ROOKIE! And two more (Chicago and Dallas) would involve 2nd year players! Check out this little fact. The ONLY team in the NFL in 2006 that WILLINGLY chose to give two RB's, each with more than 1 full year of NFL experience, a meaningful distribution of carries was the Oakland Raiders! And let's be honest, I'm hesitant to even use the '06 Raiders as an example of what any NFL team is actually trying to achieve on offense - they were THAT bad.
Okay, so let's start trying to draw some conclusions about all of this.
#1) Only 2 rookie runners led their teams in attempts last year (Addai an Leon Washington) and neither of the 2nd year runners (Ced. Benson and Marion Barber) led in rushing attempts. Personally, I have a theory as to why this is. NFL defenses continue to evolve every year. Creative blitz packages that involve bringing pressure from anywhere on any down and distance are becoming the norm. The Ravens and Philly started it, and now it's spreading across the league. Running Backs are asked to do more in terms of route-running adjustment and blitz-scheme recognition than ever before. And to be honest, there's a much steeper learning curve to that aspect of the game than RUNNING the football. Simply put, there is as much a need as ever for having EXPERIENCE at the running back position. The days of a highly touted rookie back ala Edgerrin James/Ricky Williams being drafted and becoming a teams workhorse back from Day 1 are becoming the rare exception to the rule. Again, JUST my theory. I'd love to hear other's thoughts on the matter.
#2) However the reverse also seems to be true. Teams are no longer drafting high-profile RB's with the intention of grooming them for a year or two while the starter plays out his contract ala Shaun Alexander. NINE rookie RB's had meaningful carries for their teams. While no rookie runners are outright WINNING the starting job, a greater number of them seem to be at least "involved" in the gameplan from Day 1.
#3) Teams WANT young runners to supplant the starter by year number THREE at the latest. It's "do or die" time for Marion Barber. Ced. Benson had his path cleared by the T. Jones deal last week. Either they'll win the job in year three or are in very real danger of ending up as a career backup.
#4) For purposes of re-draft leaguers - when faced with an either/or scenario, it seems prudent to lean toward the veteran. I realize the rookie is flashier and offers more upside but in the majority of RBBC situations - the veteran will have more attempts over the course of a season. Something I'm just now thinking about as I write this - I should have compared the rookies attempts over the first 8 games to their attempts over the last 8 games. I wonder if there's maybe a pattern of the rookies attempts "picking up steam" so to speak, as the season wears on? Maybe someone will take the time to do that.
#5) You have to kind of read between the lines for this one, but it appears as though rookie and 2nd yr. RB's who meet or exceed exectations are tough to keep off the field the following year. Specifically, I'm looking at Willie Parker, Stephen Jackson, Ronnie Brown, Cadillac Williams and Frank Gore from Part 1 of this series here.
In closing this article, it would be irresponsible of me as to not remind you of one very important fact. I am making a LOT of generalizations here based ONLY on the 2006 NFL season. In order to actually identify NFL trends, I should have gone back over at least a 3-5 year span and broke down every team's distribution of carries but to be quite honest - I don't have that kind of time. Maybe I should plan on revisiting this article over the next 4-5 offseasons and see if '06 was an abberation or if some of the above theories are based in fact. If you have any opinions on whether or not you'd like to see that happen - feel free to drop me a line.
Now that we've accurately identified what a R.B.B.C. looks like AND developed some general theories about distribution of team carries, in the final Part III of this series tomorrow morning we are going to have a look at ALL 32 NFL teams and take some educated guesses at what could happen in their backfields in '07. Bring your Cheatsheets for that field trip!
Thanks for reading!
Atlanta - Warrick Dunn - 286 attempts Jerious Norwood ® - 99 attempts
Carolina - DeShaun Foster -227 attempts DeAngelo Williams ® - 121 attempts
Chicago - Thomas Jones - 296 attempts Cedric Benson - 157 attempts
Dallas - Julius Jones - 267 attempts Marion Barber - 135 attempts
Denver - Tatum Bell - 233 attempts Mike Bell ® - 157 attempts
Houston - Ron Dyne - 151 attempts Wali Lundy ® - 124 attempts
Indianapolis - Joseph Addai ® - 226 attempts Dominic Rhodes - 187 attempts
Jacksonville - Fred Taylor - 231 attempts Maurice Jones-Drew ® - 166 attempts
New Orleans - Deuce McAllister - 244 attempts Reggie Bush ® - 155 attempts
New England - Corey Dillon - 199 attempts Laurence Maroney ® - 175 attempts
N.Y.Jets - Leon Washington ® - 151 attempts Kevan Barlow - 131 attempts
Oakland - Justin Fargas - 178 attempts LaMont Jordan - 144 attempts
Wow! The more I write about Fantasy Football the more I learn about what I DON'T know. I have to be honest here and share a little secret with you. When I initially had the idea of writing this series, before breaking down any stats from last season, I had it in my head all of the various types of Running Back by Committee throughout the NFL. I assumed that when the dust settled from the stats, I'd find 3 or 4 RBBC types. I figured I'd break them down by RBBC "type" and based on stats, look at which of the runners would serve our fantasy team better.
Little did I know that once I broke it down, we would be staring at the fact that NINE OF THE TWELVE R.B.B.C.'s IN THE NFL LAST SEASON INVOLVED A ROOKIE! And two more (Chicago and Dallas) would involve 2nd year players! Check out this little fact. The ONLY team in the NFL in 2006 that WILLINGLY chose to give two RB's, each with more than 1 full year of NFL experience, a meaningful distribution of carries was the Oakland Raiders! And let's be honest, I'm hesitant to even use the '06 Raiders as an example of what any NFL team is actually trying to achieve on offense - they were THAT bad.
Okay, so let's start trying to draw some conclusions about all of this.
#1) Only 2 rookie runners led their teams in attempts last year (Addai an Leon Washington) and neither of the 2nd year runners (Ced. Benson and Marion Barber) led in rushing attempts. Personally, I have a theory as to why this is. NFL defenses continue to evolve every year. Creative blitz packages that involve bringing pressure from anywhere on any down and distance are becoming the norm. The Ravens and Philly started it, and now it's spreading across the league. Running Backs are asked to do more in terms of route-running adjustment and blitz-scheme recognition than ever before. And to be honest, there's a much steeper learning curve to that aspect of the game than RUNNING the football. Simply put, there is as much a need as ever for having EXPERIENCE at the running back position. The days of a highly touted rookie back ala Edgerrin James/Ricky Williams being drafted and becoming a teams workhorse back from Day 1 are becoming the rare exception to the rule. Again, JUST my theory. I'd love to hear other's thoughts on the matter.
#2) However the reverse also seems to be true. Teams are no longer drafting high-profile RB's with the intention of grooming them for a year or two while the starter plays out his contract ala Shaun Alexander. NINE rookie RB's had meaningful carries for their teams. While no rookie runners are outright WINNING the starting job, a greater number of them seem to be at least "involved" in the gameplan from Day 1.
#3) Teams WANT young runners to supplant the starter by year number THREE at the latest. It's "do or die" time for Marion Barber. Ced. Benson had his path cleared by the T. Jones deal last week. Either they'll win the job in year three or are in very real danger of ending up as a career backup.
#4) For purposes of re-draft leaguers - when faced with an either/or scenario, it seems prudent to lean toward the veteran. I realize the rookie is flashier and offers more upside but in the majority of RBBC situations - the veteran will have more attempts over the course of a season. Something I'm just now thinking about as I write this - I should have compared the rookies attempts over the first 8 games to their attempts over the last 8 games. I wonder if there's maybe a pattern of the rookies attempts "picking up steam" so to speak, as the season wears on? Maybe someone will take the time to do that.
#5) You have to kind of read between the lines for this one, but it appears as though rookie and 2nd yr. RB's who meet or exceed exectations are tough to keep off the field the following year. Specifically, I'm looking at Willie Parker, Stephen Jackson, Ronnie Brown, Cadillac Williams and Frank Gore from Part 1 of this series here.
In closing this article, it would be irresponsible of me as to not remind you of one very important fact. I am making a LOT of generalizations here based ONLY on the 2006 NFL season. In order to actually identify NFL trends, I should have gone back over at least a 3-5 year span and broke down every team's distribution of carries but to be quite honest - I don't have that kind of time. Maybe I should plan on revisiting this article over the next 4-5 offseasons and see if '06 was an abberation or if some of the above theories are based in fact. If you have any opinions on whether or not you'd like to see that happen - feel free to drop me a line.
Now that we've accurately identified what a R.B.B.C. looks like AND developed some general theories about distribution of team carries, in the final Part III of this series tomorrow morning we are going to have a look at ALL 32 NFL teams and take some educated guesses at what could happen in their backfields in '07. Bring your Cheatsheets for that field trip!
Thanks for reading!
