AUCTION DRAFTS : Budgeting for positions (1 Viewer)

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Okay.. got my first auction draft in a pay league coming up and I'm trying to get as prepared as possible for it.

Based on this article I am attempting to set out very rough guidelines with regards to spending for each position. I realize a key component to an auction is to not only go in with a plan, but to also be flexible enough to grab value where it presents itself...

First of all.. My Spreadsheet:

1) Have a spreadsheet tracker that will show a grid of all 12 teams by all positions. Values will be entered into this grid and will automatically track dollars spent, dollars remaining.... dollars spent by position...etc. This should be helpful to let me know who still needs what positions.. and how much money they have to spend.

2) On that sheet i have a section with my team (automatically populated from above) and my budgeted amount per postiion.... plus a running tally of how much over/under budget I am so I can know if I need to pinch some pennies on some guys, or if I have a few extra bucks to go overbudget and get that guy I want. This is tracked indepentendly for Hitters/Pitchers as well as globally (in case I want to shift money back/forth middraft)

3) Also on this sheet I have a team stat tracker that is based on an article from Fantasybaseball.com that states you typically want to build a team that projects into at least a 3rd place finish in every category. I will enter each players projected stats as I get them, and it will keep a running tally compared to the 3rd place values from each category in our league last year.... this way I can see if I am lagging in certain categories, or have room to move in others (ie if I'm way above target on AVG, but lacking in HR, maybe I can get that Adam Dunn to boost HR without bringing my AVG too low).

4) That sheet will be on my laptop and should be very easy to keep up to date (entering one $ value per player unless I win that player, then have to enter his 5 cats from the (attached) FB.com projections). Then I'll have a 1 sheet cheatsheet in front of me with players broken down by position with projected values, plus a "good deal" value that I will be comfortable bidding that player up to in the event bidding stagnates. This value will start at about 75% of player value and will be adjusted based on how much I like/need the guy.

That said... here is the main question:

I have budgeted the following amounts for each position based on:

1) the article mentioned above

2) the fact that Todd Zola from fantasybaseball.com thinks that in this shallow league format (Mixed 12 Team) the best approach is a Stars/Scrubs approach. He advocates avoiding the elite at scarce positions as well as the overall elite (as they tend to get bid up), but target on the 2nd tier of studs (ie 2nd-4th round guys) then fill in with dirt cheap pitching and values.

With those 2 things considered I laid out the following budget... what are your thoughts?



LEAGUE MINIMUM SALARY : $3

C - 15

C - 3 (league min) <---

1B - 20

2B - 25

3B - 20

SS - 30

MI - 4 (Luis Castillo - Keeper)

CI - 5

OF - 27 (stud)

OF - 15 (solid 2nd tier guy)

OF - 10

OF - 5 (gamble on comeback)

OF - 5 (gamble on rookie/breakout)

UT - 16 (treated as flex budget... try to keep above 10)

OFFENSIVE TOTAL: 200

SP1 - 19 (Solid "reliable" Starter

SP2 - 10 (Solid 2nd-3rd tier starter)

SP3 - 7 (Gamble on Up and Comer)

SP4 - 3 (Gil Meche - keeper)

SP5 - 3 (Gamble on young guy)

RP1 - 9 (somewhat established closer)

RP2 - 6 (decent closer)

RP3 - 3 (closer to be gamble)

PITCHING TOTAL: 60

The notes in parenthesis are just ideas on what I might do with those picks... not written in stone.

Thoughts? Suggestions?

 

[guru_007]

Okay...first, #1 here is imperative, and you will have a huge advantage over other owners who don't track spending. Sure, there will be about 30-40 money checks throughout the auction, but if you have these numbers readily available, you will not need to be scurrying jotting down notes, seeing who you can bid on, who you can't, who is in good position and who is in bad position to bid on players.

I have never, ever, ever budgeted by position. You need to be flexible, and having a catching budget is not a good idea. Have a budge by offense/pitching and keep to it. Don't get hung up on positions. If you are in a 12 team mixed league, 18 bucks on catcher and Luis Castillo as a keeper are both bad ideas, just my opinion there.

I've read Todd Zola's stuff now for a long time, and I'm pretty much in disagreement with most of what he writes concerning the draft....however, stars and scrubs for a shallow league is a good idea. I haven't had the opportunity to do live auctions in about 6 years now, however, when they used to be the only leagues I would participate in. My cash ratio was very high, I'd say over 75% of the leagues I participated in. Unfortunately, my first place finishes went down drastically due to many other owners running a stars/scrubs or LIMA variation strategy. Some years they'd finish bottom 4. Other leagues they'd win. I prefer to cash, giving my team a chance to win it all, rather than being disinterested in the league by mid-July.

The main thing in an auction is to stay very flexible, recognize the bargains, or when the bargains are coming and pick them up. If the early part of the draft, everyone is going for 5-10 bucks more than your estimated values, as is often the case, there will be bargains later on. If the early guys are going cheap, BUY EARLY (this happens a lot too). If you are in a keeper league, you need to accurately value inflation of auction values. For example, if someone is able to keep ARod for $15, at a savings of about $25, there is an extra 25 bucks in the kitty so to speak so players values are ticked upwards. Most people understand this concept, but fail to accurately account for it when bidding.

Other things to keep in mind are endgame. Very important part of the auction draft, where you fill in guys that you WANT, not guys you can afford. So, for example, let's say Kelly Johnson is still out there and you have 10 bucks to spend on 2 positions and it's your turn to pull a guy up to bid, you ahve to decide if you want to take a chance and bring out his name or wait. That will depend on who has what money left and positions available. Conversely, if someone else brings up his name you need to decide quickly are you going all out to get him or is there a suitable alternative. You'll be surprised at how many people are afraid to leave themselves short changed, so they end up not bidding, and end up with money at the end of the draft, a big no-no.

Feed other owners beer, lots of it. A good buddy of mine, and shrewd auction drafter, made a mistake one year of showing up with a few sixers of Belgian beers, not realizing the effects of added alcohol. If you can't think straight, you are screwed. His team was very bad that year.

g'luck

 

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Great post and thanks for taking the itme to help

RE: catcher... other suggest making sure to get a solid catcher this year. You disagree? (not taking either side.. just gathering opinions)

RE: Castillo is valued at around $8 (2B #10 according to Fantasybaseball.com's Projections). I have him penciled in at MI with a Profit of $4 right off the bat. I like that he contributes in R / SB and has a solid AVG. My team has literally NO solid keeper options.. you should see this sorry excuse for a squad I'm iheriting. I'd rather not go into the auction with NOTHING... is 2B10 at a $4 profit really that bad an option for MI? Not sure if I'll be able to do better than him at that price/positon. Looking for an honest take here.. not trying to convince you I'm right.

RE: Buying early or ignoring overbidding early. Totally hear you there. That's why I'll have the sheet in front of me (so I realize there are still guys to be had later and don't overbid on anyone)... plus the ~75% bid up figure should be helpful in making sure nobody gets too good of a deal... and at the same time I'll likely land 1 or 2 guys at a good value. I don't intend on getting involved in every bidding war... just going to try to help enforce pricing.

Another good piece of advice I heard was to make sure you are in the top 3 in money once 2/3rd of the players are off the board. I'll attempt to do this as I agree that having money in the later rounds will likely provide lots of value. On the other side of the coin.. I definitely don't want to be stuck with cash on hand at the end either...

RE: Budgeting for postions : Those numbers are VERY VERY VERY fluid. I guess I am just trying to make sure I allocate a reasonable amount to various categories. I don't want to end up dropping $80 on my OF then realize I'm left with scrubs in the IF. I realize experience and self discipline will help avoid that but I just want that extra safety net I suppose. Also I think that more than anything I'm using that as a way to guide myself into spending where it's needed.. ie in posiitons where dropoffs are severe. Do you disagree with this logic? Again.. not trying to sell you on it.. just explaining my thought process.

Do you have suggestions for Stars/Scrubs overall?

I will be having a couple beers later on but will likely be one of the more sober people there... no worries on that

Thanks again for the help...

 

[guru_007]

RE: catcher... other suggest making sure to get a solid catcher this year. You disagree? (not taking either side.. just gathering opinions)

In a two catcher league, I definitely suggest getting solid catcher(s). However, I would not budget 18$ to that position as it's just not worth it, imo. Let other people pay $25 on VMart, McCann, Mauer, what have you. I'd say spend minimal money and get two guys that start and play a lot, i.e. John Buck, Bengie Molina, whatever. Catchers only play 4-5 per week, at least 95% of them. Don't spend extra money here. And grab a backup catcher in the reserve draft, catchers get hurt a lot.

RE: Castillo is valued at around $8 (2B #10 according to Fantasybaseball.com's Projections). I have him penciled in at MI with a Profit of $4 right off the bat. I like that he contributes in R / SB and has a solid AVG. My team has literally NO solid keeper options.. you should see this sorry excuse for a squad I'm iheriting. I'd rather not go into the auction with NOTHING... is 2B10 at a $4 profit really that bad an option for MI? Not sure if I'll be able to do better than him at that price/positon. Looking for an honest take here.. not trying to convince you I'm right.

I don't agree with this thinking. First, I am not sure he will perform as the 10th best 2B, and second, I don't think there is much difference between the 10-15th ranked 2B to warrant an $8 bid. Castillo is a minimum bid player. No power, No rbi's, 32 years old, may steal you 15-20 bases...maybe. I'd throw him back in the pool.

RE: Buying early or ignoring overbidding early. Totally hear you there. That's why I'll have the sheet in front of me (so I realize there are still guys to be had later and don't overbid on anyone)... plus the ~75% bid up figure should be helpful in making sure nobody gets too good of a deal... and at the same time I'll likely land 1 or 2 guys at a good value. I don't intend on getting involved in every bidding war... just going to try to help enforce pricing.

Don't get caught price enforcing. People will get bargains. If you try to be that guy, you better be really good at drafting elsewhwere otherwise you'll get stuck with a bunch of players that you don't want, and don't perform. There are reasons why some players go cheap. You'll be stuck with too many risky propositions.

Another good piece of advice I heard was to make sure you are in the top 3 in money once 2/3rd of the players are off the board. I'll attempt to do this as I agree that having money in the later rounds will likely provide lots of value. On the other side of the coin.. I definitely don't want to be stuck with cash on hand at the end either...

Not bad advice, but no way do you need to worry about this. I like to have money near the end, but I've drafted winners where I've had 4-5 minimum bid guys too. No reason not to stack your team with talent while the getting's good.

RE: Budgeting for postions : Those numbers are VERY VERY VERY fluid. I guess I am just trying to make sure I allocate a reasonable amount to various categories. I don't want to end up dropping $80 on my OF then realize I'm left with scrubs in the IF. I realize experience and self discipline will help avoid that but I just want that extra safety net I suppose. Also I think that more than anything I'm using that as a way to guide myself into spending where it's needed.. ie in posiitons where dropoffs are severe. Do you disagree with this logic? Again.. not trying to sell you on it.. just explaining my thought process.

Again, I don't budget by position.

Do you have suggestions for Stars/Scrubs overall?

Yes. Be prepared to work a lot during the course of the season.g'luck

 

[Giant Wooden Badger]

In a league like that be prepared to see the studs go for $35 or more. ARod will likely approach $50. At $27-30, particularly in a mixed keeper league, you'll see the Alex Rios types.

 

[Knightro]

I like to bucket pricing by position rather than by slot. Instead of saying $15 and $3 for the 2 catchers, just say $18 for catching. If you project a Ramon Hernandez at $15, but get him at $11, then you can spend $7 on a better 2nd catcher.

If you do get a bargain at the first spot, try to fill the next one up immediately if a bargain comes along. Chris Snyder is a good example - you have $7 left to spend on catching, but he's not going to go for $7 in a 12 team mixed. Take him at $2, and now you have $5 to allocate to your outfield budget. $20 for OF3-5 is probably not enough

 

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Having done a bit more research I've found a great series by FBG's own Hook (Perry Van Hook) over at FB.com. He advocates breaking down spending by price, and letting posistions fall where they may (until you have to start filling needs obviously).

I have readjusted my sheet to look the following way:

Offense ($200)

$38 -

$31 -

$26 -

$24 -

$17 -

$14 -

$13 -

$10 -

$8 -

$5 -

$4 - Castillo (MI) (maybe)

$4 -

$3 -

$3 -

Pitchers: ($60)

$21 -

$13 -

$10 -

$4 -

$3 - Meche (SP4)

$3 -

$3 -

$3 -

$3 -

As players fill "slots" the surplus/deficit is distributed among the remaining slots within the group (O or P). Seems to be more intuitive and given these are all starting slots I like the approach. Leaving guys like Arod and Wright alone as they will be bid into the stratosphere and try to populate my team with 2nd tier studs and upside/value guys. These seems to guide you into building your team in whatever manner you like (ie X number of studs...), while still allowing you the flexibility within positions.

You guys have me seriously wondering on Castillio now... going to look into him a little deeper. May not keep him now, even given his low price ($1 over minimum).... we'll see.

Thanks again for the pointers guys.... :thumup:

 

[Eephus]

I wouldn't keep Castillo. Even if he projects to $8 performance, that's not a huge benefit. The more important question is what he'll go for in the auction, i.e. how does his keeper price compare to his projected auction cost? I'd be surprised if he drew a $4 bid, although auctions are nothing if unpredictable.

 

[Giant Wooden Badger]

Having done a bit more research I've found a great series by FBG's own Hook (Perry Van Hook) over at FB.com. He advocates breaking down spending by price, and letting posistions fall where they may (until you have to start filling needs obviously). I have readjusted my sheet to look the following way:Offense ($200)$38 - $31 - $26 - $24 - $17 - $14 - $13 - $10 - $8 - $5 - $4 - Castillo (MI) (maybe)$4 - $3 - $3 - Pitchers: ($60)$21 - $13 - $10 - $4 - $3 - Meche (SP4)$3 - $3 - $3 - $3 -As players fill "slots" the surplus/deficit is distributed among the remaining slots within the group (O or P). Seems to be more intuitive and given these are all starting slots I like the approach. Leaving guys like Arod and Wright alone as they will be bid into the stratosphere and try to populate my team with 2nd tier studs and upside/value guys. These seems to guide you into building your team in whatever manner you like (ie X number of studs...), while still allowing you the flexibility within positions. You guys have me seriously wondering on Castillio now... going to look into him a little deeper. May not keep him now, even given his low price ($1 over minimum).... we'll see. Thanks again for the pointers guys.... :thumup:

I get the approach and don't necessarily disagree with it in deep mixed leagues and NL/AL only leagues but what do you really think those $3, $4, $5 guys are buying you over $1 guys in a shallow mixed league? You'd be better off dropping all of those down to $1 guys and taking the extra money and using it at the top end on guys like Wright, Utley, Fielder, Hanely, etc.In shallow mixed league, the difference between the $1 and $5 guys is negligible. You really do get the most bang for your buck with the studs.

 

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I wouldn't keep Castillo. Even if he projects to $8 performance, that's not a huge benefit. The more important question is what he'll go for in the auction, i.e. how does his keeper price compare to his projected auction cost? I'd be surprised if he drew a $4 bid, although auctions are nothing if unpredictable.

Even with the auction having a $3 minimum bid? That means I can keep him for $1 over minimum price.... I'm not in love the with guy but I could do a lot worse at MI and especially given the $1 over minimum prictetag.Or maybe FB.com just has his value too high? (the 10th or 11th rated 2B on the board) I wouldn't want him as my 2B (targeting Cano) but isn't it safe to assume that a MI will usually come from the SS #13-24 or 2B #13-24 player pool, assuming you weren't willing to outbid someone for a 2B1 as your MI?Maybe I'm going about this thinking all wrong... I just see a pretty decent guy at $1 over the minimum.

 

[[icon]]

Having done a bit more research I've found a great series by FBG's own Hook (Perry Van Hook) over at FB.com. He advocates breaking down spending by price, and letting posistions fall where they may (until you have to start filling needs obviously).

I have readjusted my sheet to look the following way:

Offense ($200)

$38 -

$31 -

$26 -

$24 -

$17 -

$14 -

$13 -

$10 -

$8 -

$5 -

$4 - Castillo (MI) (maybe)

$4 -

$3 -

$3 -

Pitchers: ($60)

$21 -

$13 -

$10 -

$4 -

$3 - Meche (SP4)

$3 -

$3 -

$3 -

$3 -

As players fill "slots" the surplus/deficit is distributed among the remaining slots within the group (O or P). Seems to be more intuitive and given these are all starting slots I like the approach. Leaving guys like Arod and Wright alone as they will be bid into the stratosphere and try to populate my team with 2nd tier studs and upside/value guys. These seems to guide you into building your team in whatever manner you like (ie X number of studs...), while still allowing you the flexibility within positions.

You guys have me seriously wondering on Castillio now... going to look into him a little deeper. May not keep him now, even given his low price ($1 over minimum).... we'll see.

Thanks again for the pointers guys.... :thumup:

I get the approach and don't necessarily disagree with it in deep mixed leagues and NL/AL only leagues but what do you really think those $3, $4, $5 guys are buying you over $1 guys in a shallow mixed league? You'd be better off dropping all of those down to $1 guys and taking the extra money and using it at the top end on guys like Wright, Utley, Fielder, Hanely, etc.In shallow mixed league, the difference between the $1 and $5 guys is negligible. You really do get the most bang for your buck with the studs.

Sorry.. maybe this is causing some of the confusion $3 MINIMUM ON ALL PLAYERS

Unfortunately there is no $1 guy in this league :kickrock:

Now's it explaining why I'm considering keeping Castillo?