Auction QB thoughts (1 Viewer)

[billrob]

The auction league I'm in has a different scoring system then most. It rewards 5 points per TD, but -5 for an INT.

This obviously puts QB's that don't throw a lot of picks at a premium. I've crunched the numbers and come up with 2 guys that are consistantly over a 2 TD/1 INT ratio over the last 5 years.

Manning = 2.8/1 and McNabb = 2.45/1

Palmer = 1.8/1 in his three years but = 2.4/1 the last two, and Rivers = 2.4/1 in his first year.

My question is should I spend whatever it takes to get one of these guys? Obviously Manning would be the most expensive with Palmer closely behind, McNabb should come at a discount because of the injury concerns, and Rivers will be cheaper and I'm not sold he can match last years numbers. I don't want to spend any more than 20% of my salary on my QB's but if it's more than worth it I will. And if I end up with McNabb or Rivers I will have to get a decent backup.

What do you guys think?

 

[VICK-tory]

Me and my boyz are doing our draft auction style for the first time, I need to absorb as much info about them as possible.. I'm scared to death!

 

[Sylira21]

As long as you have a fairly normal set of starting requirements (1 QB, 2 RBs, etc), you shouldn't overvalue QBs that don't throw INTs. For example...a "good" QB throws only 10 INTs in a year...a "bad" one throws 18. The different rules you have mean a fall-off in value of 32 points for the "bad" QB. Significant? Yes. Worth spending a lot of extra cap dollars on? No. Don't change the proportion of cap space you want to spend on the position, just adjust your rankings to take this wrinkle into account.

At least that's my method.

 

[billrob]

yes. we do use a typical starting lineup.

I was just crunching some more numbers. Over the last 5 years using my league's scoring system. 5 QBs have been over 35 PPG.

Manning = 41.4

Bulger = 38.0

McNabb = 36.2

Palmer = 35.6 (3 years)

Brady = 35.4

Only 1 RB has been over 35 PPG

Tomlinson = 35.4

I just think it might be best for me to pay whatever it takes to get Manning, not draft another QB and pick up a guy from the scrap heap for his bye. Even if I have to pay 20-25% of my cap for Manning, I can still get a top-notch RB and some quality receivers, and then bargain hunt for the rest.

Any other input?

 

[Sylira21]

Wow. You must have some significant yardage bonuses to get Bulger ranked that high.

It always scares me when I hear people say "I'll pay whatever it takes to get X..." It brings out a huge desire in me to jack the price up on them to an absurd degree.

I would still favor getting two mid-rated guys with upside for a QB set in an auction as opposed to one uber-stud. You pay a premium for the name-brand recognition of Manning or Palmer, while guys like Vick and Kitna fly way under the radar. They're "bad" QBs according to many definitions, but guys like them are consistently undervalued. Last year, I bought Vick for $5 and Bulger for $8 in a $200 cap league. Peyton went for $41. That's a rather lucky example on my part, but it shows how these things can work out.

My philoshopy is: spend your money where you have to spend money - starting RBs and top-tier WRs. Try to grab bargains everywhere else.

 

[fishergm31]

Is the 41.4 PPG Manning's average of 5 seasons? If so, his average total season he scored 662.4 fantasy points. If I break down his components: over 5 years he averaged 32.8 TDs = 164 pts, 11.6 INT = -58. And he averaged 13 pts for rushing stats (assuming 10 yds/pt and 6 pts/TD). So that leaves 543 fantasy pts for passing yards? Am I missing anything? Are completions included or 300 yd bonuses?

If it's just yardage that means his average 4,234 yds earned him 543 pts. That's 1 pt for every 8 yards passing. 82% of his fantasy pts would be based on yardage alone. I'm guessing that is not the case.

I think instead of merely focusing in on low INTs, you'll want to look at all the components of scoring. If yardage is a big factor in the QB scoring, a guy with a lot of yards but a lot of picks might be just as valuable as one with High TD, low picks, but fewer yards.

How many yards does it take to overcome 10 additional interceptions (50 fantasy pts)? At 1 pt/20 yds that's 1,000 yards - that's a heck of a lot to make up. But if it's 1 pt/10 yds, that's only 500 yds - or merely 30 yds/game.

One other thing to consider - is it worth paying $50 for 40 pts from Manning, when you might be able to get 35 from Bulger for $30? (just throwing out numbers). Run the VBD for your QBs and see where the value is. Who has the best cost per projected fantasy point? It may be that Manning has tremendous value, but there is a limit. Don't lock up Manning at the cost of your other positions.

 

[BigRed]

Let's not overcomplicate this. Your scoring system obviously increases low INT QBs more - somewhere between "a tiny bit" and "a whole lot" IMO (how's that for scientific). I'd jack up the price I'm willing to pay for the top QBs (based on your system) somewhat more, but not by a ton. For ex, if in a "normal" system you would've paid up to $17 for Palmer, I'd go to maybe low 20s on him now.

 

[billrob]

to update the scoring. 1pt/comp, 1pt/25 yds, bonuses for yards and length of TD.

two other side points:

1. this is our first year using an auction, so I'm hoping that some guys may not want to spend a big number on one player.

2. the previous two seasons (using a regular draft) the team with Manning has won the Championship.

thanks for all the input guys!

much appreciated!

 

[BigRed]

two other side points:1. this is our first year using an auction, so I'm hoping that some guys may not want to spend a big number on one player.

...which isn't necessarily good or bad. Guys win using a few big studs and filling out w/scrubs, guys also win using a more balanced approach of upper tier but nobody amazing kind of style. There is no "the" answer there.

2. the previous two seasons (using a regular draft) the team with Manning has won the Championship.

...which frankly is meaningless, as is any of these "team X won it all with (player name) on their roster" - it takes a team to win a title, not one guy. I should know; I had LT and missed the playoffs.