Auction Strategy Preference (1 Viewer)

[LAUNCH]

Assign dollar values to each player.  Your draft should not be thought out in advanced on determining what strategy you will use.  Do your homework and let the draft come to you.  The key to the draft is always keeping your concentration on voice patterns, physical gestures, and your opponents ego during the auction.  Maximizing their spend, while not getting your hands caught in the cookie jar is job 1.

 

[Pigskin Fanatic]

Studs and duds is a noob approach - basically every team I see do this is crossing their fingers they don't have an injury. And yes, it works great if you can avoid injuries and make 1-2 lucky pickups. However, this strategy is risky af. All it takes is one injury or one 2016 Hopkins and these teams are sunk. One benefit of studs and duds that I should note is that you have increased odds of making a nice pickup because all your bench is droppable. You can easily churn 3-4 players every week on the WW looking for that diamond in the rough. A balanced team will be more reluctant to drop their relatively more valuable backups for these unknowns.

1. Go back and look at old auctions from the league
   
2. Sort high to low prices by position
   
3. Delete the column of last year's players, keeping the auction values
   
4. Find a good snake draft ADP, sort by position, and paste those players next to last year's auction values
   

Once you've done that, game plan away. If you want Barkely, plan a team around him and see how your budget pans out. But also plan another team around missing out on him. And if it is a "must have" player, plan on paying at least 5% extra for him.

want to highlight these points, it's exactly how i plan and how my leagues turn out most years for the past decade. good stuff. except the noob approach part because the latter part of that statement of churning 2-3 players throughout the season has worked out well for me most years. i had a couple of years where i hesitated to drop my 13th and 14th guy in a given week or two and that directly cost me the season. i hate that. so the lesson i guess is pick a strategy at draft and actually stick with it throughout the season. don't get attached to "potential" once the season gets going.

 

[Pigskin Fanatic]

Assign dollar values to each player.  Your draft should not be thought out in advanced on determining what strategy you will use.  Do your homework and let the draft come to you.  The key to the draft is always keeping your concentration on voice patterns, physical gestures, and your opponents ego during the auction.  Maximizing their spend, while not getting your hands caught in the cookie jar is job 1.

lol... as much as this is probably a really really good advice, short of having a PhD in psychology, most of this probably isn't realistic for most of us who is on our third beer by round 7. jokes aside, i guess it is like sitting at a poker game after all.

 

[NYRAGE]

Well, it varies by league setup. If you are playing in a 10 team x 15 man roster league then there's going to be all sorts of value available on the WW each week (and studs & duds would be the correct choice). That's why team number and roster limit come into play when determining a strategy. However, if you are playing in 12-14 team leagues with 20+ man rosters then being able to churn 3-4 players a week isn't going to help you very much. I pretty much refuse to play in leagues that roster less than 240 players, so I don't usually see a lot of talent sitting on the waiver and drafted depth is much more important than the ability to churn all willy nilly. Shallow rosters are a parity mechanism, so you're basically playing socialist fantasy football if you play in shallow roster leagues. Ron Swanson would not approve.

But what you mention can happen in any league. It's important to keep an eye on perceived tiers. The last player in a tier will often go for more than the last couple guys in that tier if there are a few big stacks left out there.

Going for value is only dangerous if you go in blind. You should always have several pre-draft game plans mapped out. There are a lot of ways to get AAV, but the best way is to use your own league:

1. Go back and look at old auctions from the league
   
2. Sort high to low prices by position
   
3. Delete the column of last year's players, keeping the auction values
   
4. Find a good snake draft ADP, sort by position, and paste those players next to last year's auction values
   

Once you've done that, game plan away. If you want Barkely, plan a team around him and see how your budget pans out. But also plan another team around missing out on him. And if it is a "must have" player, plan on paying at least 5% extra for him.

Ha, socialist fantasy football. I love it. I used that term yesterday.

Btw, your method is something that a friend and I have done for past auctions. It has been pretty accurate until last year when prices got skewed as top 10 prices suddenly shot up for some reason.

 

[FF Ninja]

Assign dollar values to each player.  Your draft should not be thought out in advanced on determining what strategy you will use.  Do your homework and let the draft come to you.  The key to the draft is always keeping your concentration on voice patterns, physical gestures, and your opponents ego during the auction.  Maximizing their spend, while not getting your hands caught in the cookie jar is job 1.

Even for drafts we do live, we all use software. So there are no voice patterns or physical gestures when bidding. You should always have a few plans going into the draft. Your draft will probably never end up exactly like any of those plans, but it's good to have an idea of budget allocation before you get there - and more importantly, an idea of who to save your money for. Letting the draft come to you only works in leagues that have very active trading. Because letting the draft come to you doesn't usual lend itself to a very even roster construction - you can easily miss out on a whole position group.

Also, I don't like the idea of just taking whoever is a "value" which is often what people mean when they say let the draft come to you. For instance, I don't trust Landry this year, but his AAV is still pretty high. If I get a 20% discount on him, I think he'll still under-perform that price.

 

[FF Ninja]

Ha, socialist fantasy football. I love it. I used that term yesterday.

Btw, your method is something that a friend and I have done for past auctions. It has been pretty accurate until last year when prices got skewed as top 10 prices suddenly shot up for some reason.

Yeah, sometimes you can adjust your spreadsheet on the fly if you see a pattern emerging. Sometimes you just have to modify your draft strategy.

 

[LAUNCH]

Even for drafts we do live, we all use software. So there are no voice patterns or physical gestures when bidding. You should always have a few plans going into the draft. Your draft will probably never end up exactly like any of those plans, but it's good to have an idea of budget allocation before you get there - and more importantly, an idea of who to save your money for. Letting the draft come to you only works in leagues that have very active trading. Because letting the draft come to you doesn't usual lend itself to a very even roster construction - you can easily miss out on a whole position group.

Also, I don't like the idea of just taking whoever is a "value" which is often what people mean when they say let the draft come to you. For instance, I don't trust Landry this year, but his AAV is still pretty high. If I get a 20% discount on him, I think he'll still under-perform that price.

Obviously if you are using software and not interacting with each other, then those particular things I mentioned will not work.  Although if you are all together and not talking at all, then you guys need to do some reevaluations of your social skills.  I am not sure how you would ever miss out on a whole position group under any scenario.  At some point, unless you just completely don't understand how to project  dollar amount for players, then there are going to be bargains to be had.  

Your last point makes no sense at all to me.  If you value any player at "X" and get a chance to get him for 20% discount and you don't take him because you don't value him that high, then your projected salary number is just wrong.

 

[Ack88]

Oh wow, you are looking at only 160 or fewer skill players rostered. That means guys like Gesicki and Paul Richardson are on the wire week 1. Who needs a bench when the WW can be your bench?

Yes. I’ll usually have 5 or 6 $1 players.

 

[FF Ninja]

Obviously if you are using software and not interacting with each other, then those particular things I mentioned will not work.  Although if you are all together and not talking at all, then you guys need to do some reevaluations of your social skills.  I am not sure how you would ever miss out on a whole position group under any scenario.  At some point, unless you just completely don't understand how to project  dollar amount for players, then there are going to be bargains to be had.  

Your last point makes no sense at all to me.  If you value any player at "X" and get a chance to get him for 20% discount and you don't take him because you don't value him that high, then your projected salary number is just wrong.

There are co-managers, so most of the talking is among the less active of the co-managers so it is rather meaningless. The time limit is pretty short (30 seconds) so not a lot of chit chat for those of us doing the actual work! But even if it was slower and there was more talking, there's much more to be gained from having proper game plans than listening to cadence. And if you are just going by value, you can miss out on a position because some drafts just over value a single position. I recently saw the top 25ish running backs ALL go for more than their AAV. If you are just "letting the draft come to you" then you missed out on those guys. 

You must've missed my earlier comment detailing how to set up an AAV (or you just don't understand what an AAV is - it is not your value, it is an average auction value). The AAVs I create are specific from league to league, usually based on the past 2-3 years. Again, they are the expected values - not the values I personally assign to the player. Once I make an AAV, I typically highlight the players I see as a value at their likely price. If a non-highlighted player's price deviates on the low end from the expected value, it's pretty easy to discern on the fly if they have become a value or, in the hypothetical I mentioned, they are still overvalued. 

 

[LAUNCH]

There are co-managers, so most of the talking is among the less active of the co-managers so it is rather meaningless. The time limit is pretty short (30 seconds) so not a lot of chit chat for those of us doing the actual work! But even if it was slower and there was more talking, there's much more to be gained from having proper game plans than listening to cadence. And if you are just going by value, you can miss out on a position because some drafts just over value a single position. I recently saw the top 25ish running backs ALL go for more than their AAV. If you are just "letting the draft come to you" then you missed out on those guys. 

You must've missed my earlier comment detailing how to set up an AAV (or you just don't understand what an AAV is - it is not your value, it is an average auction value). The AAVs I create are specific from league to league, usually based on the past 2-3 years. Again, they are the expected values - not the values I personally assign to the player. Once I make an AAV, I typically highlight the players I see as a value at their likely price. If a non-highlighted player's price deviates on the low end from the expected value, it's pretty easy to discern on the fly if they have become a value or, in the hypothetical I mentioned, they are still overvalued. 

You are right I do not and would suggest not worrying about what the average auction value was.  You really should have two columns, one with your valuation for the player and one with your maximum you will go on a player.  Auctions are fluid and individualized each year.  If 25 RB's went over what the AAV is, that should have been a clue, that it while it is nice to know a ballpark of what was paid, people without a plan can get eagle eyed into a player or position and pay more all the time.  Plus if people overpaid on RB's then it would be very easy to move to the zero rb method and clean up on other positions.  Alternatively if 25 RB's went over your max you were willing to spend, then assuming your numbers weren't totally wrong, then you did your job.  You forced them to spend more money on players than you were willing to spend and hopefully they spent more money than they were willing to.  That is the key to winning drafts. 

When I do my ESPN drafts, the damn things go so fast that not knowing what I am really willing to spend would be crazy.  Getting caught up in the moment is just too easy to do without a game plan.  Not talking during a live draft would suck.  It's the worst part about a computer draft.  So many great opportunities to try egg on people to spend their money and encourage them not to lose "their guy".  The best part of live drafts is when two guys are in a pissing contest over a player.  It's the one time a year when a majority of the league is united and loud trying to get the other two guys to keep bidding.

 

[FF Ninja]

It's the worst part about a computer draft.  So many great opportunities to try egg on people to spend their money and encourage them not to lose "their guy".  The best part of live drafts is when two guys are in a pissing contest over a player.  It's the one time a year when a majority of the league is united and loud trying to get the other two guys to keep bidding.

Hell, we do that over chat on the computer drafts where we aren't physically together. And you're right, it's pretty fun.

However, you are missing out on a huge part of auction strategy if you aren't worried about average auction values. That's key to pre-draft prep. You can spot value plays way ahead of time if your AAV is accurate. I've found in repeat leagues that using the past 2-3 years results in very accurate values. 

 

[ZWK]

When I go into an auction I like to have 3 prices estimated for each player: 1) what I think he is worth (based on something like VBD), 2) how much I think he will cost (based on the league's tendencies and generic sources of AAV or ADP), and 3) the price that I would be happy to get him for (sort of like my "reserve price"). If the draft went magically perfectly, I could just bid my reserve price on every player and wind up with a complete roster that I like a lot, with no money left over, and not running out of money (and letting other players go below my reserve price). That is pretty much impossible to actually do so I make adjustments during the draft.

The reserve price is typically some discount below what I think the guy is worth, but not always since it also depends on how much I think players will cost. If every single starting QB is going to go for more than I think he's worth, and I have to get a QB, then I'll set the reserve prices above what I think they're worth so that I can expect to get one of them (without needing in-draft adjustments). And if every single starting QB is going for way less than what I think they're worth, then I'll set the reserve prices way below what I think they're worth so that I don't end up with 11 of them on my roster (even without in-draft adjustments).

 

[Ack88]

When I go into an auction I like to have 3 prices estimated for each player: 1) what I think he is worth (based on something like VBD), 2) how much I think he will cost (based on the league's tendencies and generic sources of AAV or ADP), and 3) the price that I would be happy to get him for (sort of like my "reserve price"). If the draft went magically perfectly, I could just bid my reserve price on every player and wind up with a complete roster that I like a lot, with no money left over, and not running out of money (and letting other players go below my reserve price). That is pretty much impossible to actually do so I make adjustments during the draft.

The reserve price is typically some discount below what I think the guy is worth, but not always since it also depends on how much I think players will cost. If every single starting QB is going to go for more than I think he's worth, and I have to get a QB, then I'll set the reserve prices above what I think they're worth so that I can expect to get one of them (without needing in-draft adjustments). And if every single starting QB is going for way less than what I think they're worth, then I'll set the reserve prices way below what I think they're worth so that I don't end up with 11 of them on my roster (even without in-draft adjustments).

I try and do something similar, but more short handed. I have the price of what I think the player is worth, and then a 10% and 20% discount price factored in so I have a ready gauge of value inflection points.

 

[The Dude]

I look at last years prices and target 3 players from the top 24 that I can buy.  Then fill in from there

 

[The Dude]

There are co-managers, so most of the talking is among the less active of the co-managers so it is rather meaningless. The time limit is pretty short (30 seconds) so not a lot of chit chat for those of us doing the actual work! But even if it was slower and there was more talking, there's much more to be gained from having proper game plans than listening to cadence. And if you are just going by value, you can miss out on a position because some drafts just over value a single position. I recently saw the top 25ish running backs ALL go for more than their AAV. If you are just "letting the draft come to you" then you missed out on those guys. 

You must've missed my earlier comment detailing how to set up an AAV (or you just don't understand what an AAV is - it is not your value, it is an average auction value). The AAVs I create are specific from league to league, usually based on the past 2-3 years. Again, they are the expected values - not the values I personally assign to the player. Once I make an AAV, I typically highlight the players I see as a value at their likely price. If a non-highlighted player's price deviates on the low end from the expected value, it's pretty easy to discern on the fly if they have become a value or, in the hypothetical I mentioned, they are still overvalued. 

Good idea but I think you can save a lot of time by using last year's amounts spent and just swap out names.  So if they spent $55 on DJ last year as the 1 RB, assume the same amount on Gurley this year.  Then tweak those numbers based on what you are willing to spend.

 

[FF Ninja]

Good idea but I think you can save a lot of time by using last year's amounts spent and just swap out names.  So if they spent $55 on DJ last year as the 1 RB, assume the same amount on Gurley this year.  Then tweak those numbers based on what you are willing to spend.

Yeah, that's what I mean. Sometimes I use 2-3 years rather than just last year. I outlined it in more detail on the 1st page.

 

[AmityRogueWaves]

Any preferred strategies for a first auction in a 25 year old snake draft league?  Is there a way to convert a few years of snake draft history into AAVs?

Everyone is already talking about how wallets will be empty and it will turn into a $1 snake draft after the 7th round, so my guess is that most of the league will tend to overspend early and often.  Is that other's experience?  If so, what's the best way to mine value if "early-round" players are more expensive than published AAVs?

 

[Ack88]

Any preferred strategies for a first auction in a 25 year old snake draft league?  Is there a way to convert a few years of snake draft history into AAVs?

Everyone is already talking about how wallets will be empty and it will turn into a $1 snake draft after the 7th round, so my guess is that most of the league will tend to overspend early and often.  Is that other's experience?  If so, what's the best way to mine value if "early-round" players are more expensive than published AAVs?

This is always tough to project. I don't know of any reliable way to convert draft histories to AAVs.

I would recommend this:

Your top level RBs will command about 35%-40% of the overall cap. As an example, I would expect to pay about $70-$80 in a $200 league for Gurley, Bell, Zeke, and DJ.

Brown, Julio, Hopkins would likely command $65ish in that same format. Variables that matter would be league size and ppr or no ppr.

QBs tend to be devalvued (unless you are talking either 2QB or 6 point TD leagues.

As for strategies, get a big 4 RB and fill in from there. Wait a little on WR and buy in bulk. If possible- try and snag 2 elite RBs if the cost is right. Don't be afraid to spend $120 of your $200 cap on a Zeke/Gurley tandem if the opportunity presents itself.

Good luck!

 

[Ack88]

To give those auctioning soon a template of what a stars and scrubs roster might look like, see below. We had to declare our keepers recently. You can keep up to 4 players (18 man rosters). Each year you keep a player, the salary goes up $4. Our cap is $165 for 18 total spots. Start QB, 2RB, 3WR, 1TE, 1K.

My keepers:

Zeke $53

L. Bell $38 (He's been on my team for a while, got him after his injury)

Julio $43

A. Robinson $6 (caught a break when he was waivered last year due to injury- cheap stash).

I have 4 players for $140.

I'll need to obtain 14 players at the auction with a grand total of $25 to spend.

Chances are I'll have a $3-$4 QB a $3 WR3 and the rest $1 or $2 players.

 

[Opie]

In my vast experience with auctions, I find that those who spend high for a few players then sweep the floor for what's left over, do well during the season but somehow, they just cannot pull off that final 3-game winning streak to win the championship.

I usually budget for the "balanced" approach but, overspending on one player can destroy that approach.

I depend heavily on Waiver Wire transactions to win championships.

 

[MAC_32]

Know your room.

Never be the guy with the least or most amount of loot.

Maximize spending but ensure you get to the dollar derby with a little wiggle room.

Use tiers. Makes it easier to anticipate costs and is a good check to ensure you dont go too overboard on a player.

Also, be wary of the last guy available in a tier. They usually cost more because others realize it too.