Auction strategy: Stud RB, or shotgun? (1 Viewer)

[SelenaCat]

Figuring out pre-auction strategies is always a challenge, but I like to have some basic ideas down before I start. One of my biggest questions this year is whether to go for a stud RB (which usually come at a premium compared to the VBD of other positions) or go for a more shotgun approach, similar to Waldman's "upside down drafting" article.

To make the decisions easier, let's assume 2 RB lineup, and someone "steady" like Mendenhall as your other starting RB. 0.5 PPR league. I'll also give a couple of range options so that you're not just picking on a player you have rated higher or lower. Please note this is for auctions, so you could actually get CJ3 and Foster if you wanted to.

For an example, which would you prefer:

Stud RB team: AP, Mendenhall, 2 x Snelling/Torain/Ward

Shotgun team: Mendenhall, Forte/Ingram/Turner, Fred Jackson/Lynch/Moreno, McGahee/LT/Sproles

Both teams would cost approximately the same for my leagues. Ignoring any keeper consideration, which style would you prefer? (And ignoring the "go stud with another position," I'm already planning on going heavy on QB and WR)

 

[Scoonie Pencil]

It's honestly pretty close and a matter of preference. I'd probably go AP/Mendy. I'm not a huge hand-cuff guy, but I feel like you NEED Gerhart in that AP scenario because of your lack of depth. Hand-cuffing is more important if your depth blows.

 

[SelenaCat]

I'd disagree about Gerhart. AP can make things happen with a weak O-line, but I don't think Gerhart can. It's a matter of personal preference, but I'd rather take a flyer on someone who could put up RB2+ numbers if their primary went down (Tate, Ringer or Jennings) as opposed to someone like Gerhart who would likely only be an RB3.

But you could easily change the stud situation to AP/CJ3, Mendy, 2x Snelling/Torain/Gerhart/Tate

 

[Johnny Rock]

Tough to vote and I haven't yet. I'd be flexible to go either way. I'm trying not to get too caught up in your examples.

If the value is there for my 2nd/3rd tier RB's who I think can perform as a Top 5 RB, such as McFadden or Ingram, I'd definitely go for depth with high upside too.

On the other side I'm prepared if AD sells for less than my projection I'll take him and count on quality VBD drafting and grab value RB's later. I think you'd end up better than 2x Snelling/Torain/Ward under that scenario. Some value would slip and you'll be ready to grab it since you've waited on RB3 for so long while filling out other skill positions. Nothing worse than seeing a solid RB late when you already have your RB roster set and have to take a lesser-valued WR or QB2 because of the numbers game.

 

[FUBAR]

Why would you ignore the keeper rules? They're the key here.

 

[SelenaCat]

Why would you ignore the keeper rules? They're the key here.

Because I was primarily working on strategy for my non-keeper league. With a keeper league, there are many more factors to consider, especially whether it's a "win now" year, or a reload year. As it turns out, I have a keeper league where I'm set at QB and WR, so this is somewhat applicable still, but adding in dynasty/keepers further complicates the more basic strategy that I was questioning. Obviously a "shotgun" approach that includes the likes of Ingram, Stewart and D. Thomas is going to be a huge win, even over someone like AP. But that "shotgun" approach used for Turner/Grant/Benson isn't nearly as attractive.

 

[zed2283]

I guess I usually end up going to shotgun approach, but that's because we've got a flex spot and I like to have more depth. If you're locked into start 2 RB's then maybe the AP/CJ3 + Mendy makes more sense.

 

[aimlessgun]

I voted studs mistakenly thinking it was talking about auction strategy in general. I think for RB's specifically it's ok to go with shotgun and make sure you're getting studs somewhere. And yes the top RB's tend to come at extremely high premiums, but if you can get them at a reasonable price I would jump on it without hesitation.

 

[FantasyTrader]

Depends whether or not I went studs-duds or "shotgun" at QB/WR & TE. I'm a BIG fan of some RB's in the 3.5%-12% budget range this year so I'd be very comfortable working in that range as long as I landed two top 5-6 studs at WR, a top 5 QB option and a stud TE.

But if I worked the middle tiers at QB and WR - gimme a tandem like Rice/Charles + puppy chow at RB and I'll take my chances. You can't draft an ENTIRE roster of middle-tier potential.

 

[Dr. Awesome]

I generally go for stud wr/qb's and grab a series of low cost rb's in the hopes at least one of them becomes a stud. I see you eliminated that as an option but I'd keep the same basic style - grab as many studs as possible then fill in the cracks with some fliers.

 

[fightingillini]

You can't draft an ENTIRE roster of middle-tier potential.

Studs win titles. Period. I think it's important that you pay for a top RB, so I always allocate a good % of my budget for RBs. As long as I can get a good price for a top RB, I always jump on it. Now if my leaguemates are overpaying for top RBs, I will change course and take mid range RBs and start focusing on stud WRs/QBs and TEs.I will always take 2 top 10 RBs if the price is right....I can find the bargains later in the draft.

 

[SelenaCat]

Depends whether or not I went studs-duds or "shotgun" at QB/WR & TE. I'm a BIG fan of some RB's in the 3.5%-12% budget range this year so I'd be very comfortable working in that range as long as I landed two top 5-6 studs at WR, a top 5 QB option and a stud TE. But if I worked the middle tiers at QB and WR - gimme a tandem like Rice/Charles + puppy chow at RB and I'll take my chances. You can't draft an ENTIRE roster of middle-tier potential.

I realize I didn't really put this in context, but my usual auction strategy is to grab studs at QB and WR (usually 3 top-10 talents between those positions) and at least a middle-tier talent at TE. That usually will leave me with enough money to either go with a stud + second-tier RB combo, or with several mid-level RB's. Hence the question. My only hesitation with grabbing stud RB's is that the "VBD per salary cost" is usually lowest for RB's compared to other positions, especially in the top half of the starters. That's not to say that you can't still get a great bargain there, but $80 on CJ3 is often "worse" than $30 on White or Wayne. So yes, if it's a question of where I'm grabbing studs, they tend to be in QB and WR positions. But I occasionaly try to budget for a stud RB in there too.

 

[ZWK]

Both teams would cost approximately the same for my leagues.

This is a mistake. If you don't go for studs at RB, you should save money at RB to spend on your starters at other positions. Don't spend that money on your backup RBs.

 

[SelenaCat]

Don't spend that money on your backup RBs.

The idea wasn't about getting strong backups, but a RBBC type situation, which also tends to help as better backup should your better players go down. Again, I'm mostly asking this in context of having spent heavily at the other positions. Sometimes you might not even be able to get a stud RB if you went "all-in" for WR's and QB's (I play 2 QB leagues, primarily), but it's good to know ahead of time whether you might want to aim for that, or plan on getting the shotgun approach and hope for a breakout season.

 

[ty247]

Bench/Roster size plays a HUGE part in whether or not this strategy will and/or can even work.