Auction Values Nowhere Near Accurate or Useful (4 Viewers)

[Pots]

Fantasy Pros, Footballguys, and other places that try to give auction values for players seem like they're useless by undervaluing top talent and overvaluing mid talent. I've doing auctions in a variety of leagues for years and have noticed this every single year. What 0.5 PPR leagues are people getting Justin Jefferson for $41? Puka for $28? How about Saquon for $44 in PPR? I get these are FBG ranking but these are still top players at the position and pretty much every one of these 'values' won't get you any of these players. Just look at Sleeper or Yahoo projected prices and it feels like these other websites don't cross check the market rate on any of these players but just plug projections into a spreadsheet that is poorly optimized with no anchor to reality. Is is just a lack of effort for the draft format?

 

[wgoldsph]

Auction is almost totally dependent on what your leaguemates value. Best you can get is averages

That said, it's on you if Puka goes for 28 and you don't capitalize.

 

[Pots]

Auction is almost totally dependent on what your leaguemates value. Best you can get is averages

That said, it's on you if Puka goes for 28 and you don't capitalize.

Of course Puka won't go for 28. None of these top players will go for what FBG or FantasyPros will say they will. That's kinda my point. The current values are basically saying 'Saquan is a good 2nd round pick', 'Puka is a good 4th round pick'.

 

[Payne]

Fantasy Pros, Footballguys, and other places that try to give auction values for players seem like they're useless by undervaluing top talent and overvaluing mid talent. I've doing auctions in a variety of leagues for years and have noticed this every single year. What 0.5 PPR leagues are people getting Justin Jefferson for $41? Puka for $28? How about Saquon for $44 in PPR? I get these are FBG ranking but these are still top players at the position and pretty much every one of these 'values' won't get you any of these players. Just look at Sleeper or Yahoo projected prices and it feels like these other websites don't cross check the market rate on any of these players but just plug projections into a spreadsheet that is poorly optimized with no anchor to reality. Is is just a lack of effort for the draft format?

Have you tried using the old school VBD tool? I have said it many times, I find the auction values within that spreadsheet to be as close to "real" as any tool.
I'm sure Joe won't like hearing this, but forget DD. It's way off for my auction leagues.

I have been running auctions for over 20 years. As wgoldsh said, each league is different. I have historical data going back 20 years.
That is the biggest tool you can have.

 

[Pots]

Fantasy Pros, Footballguys, and other places that try to give auction values for players seem like they're useless by undervaluing top talent and overvaluing mid talent. I've doing auctions in a variety of leagues for years and have noticed this every single year. What 0.5 PPR leagues are people getting Justin Jefferson for $41? Puka for $28? How about Saquon for $44 in PPR? I get these are FBG ranking but these are still top players at the position and pretty much every one of these 'values' won't get you any of these players. Just look at Sleeper or Yahoo projected prices and it feels like these other websites don't cross check the market rate on any of these players but just plug projections into a spreadsheet that is poorly optimized with no anchor to reality. Is is just a lack of effort for the draft format?

Have you tried using the old school VBD tool? I have said it many times, I find the auction values within that spreadsheet to be as close to "real" as any tool.
I'm sure Joe won't like hearing this, but forget DD. It's way off for my auction leagues.

I have been running auctions for over 20 years. As wgoldsh said, each league is different. I have historical data going back 20 years.
That is the biggest tool you can have.

Can you show me where the old school VBD tool is? I'm sure I've used it before, but no idea where.

As far as each league being different, of course it is. But I still feel current auction values are egregiously off the mark for 99% of leagues.

 

[TheDirtyWord]

Fantasy Pros, Footballguys, and other places that try to give auction values for players seem like they're useless by undervaluing top talent and overvaluing mid talent. I've doing auctions in a variety of leagues for years and have noticed this every single year. What 0.5 PPR leagues are people getting Justin Jefferson for $41? Puka for $28? How about Saquon for $44 in PPR? I get these are FBG ranking but these are still top players at the position and pretty much every one of these 'values' won't get you any of these players. Just look at Sleeper or Yahoo projected prices and it feels like these other websites don't cross check the market rate on any of these players but just plug projections into a spreadsheet that is poorly optimized with no anchor to reality. Is is just a lack of effort for the draft format?

Yeah...I think that's one reason why auction leagues are tough to generate content for...because they are so singular to the owners in your league. Each player is up for grabs in that moment, unlike drafts where one person owns the time slot.

ADP trend data can help and understanding the intensity of a players rise/fall leading up to the draft/auction is certainly useful so you can get a sense of how heated the bidding might get. It's one of the things I love about auction because in the moment...an owner might really want a player. And then when you look at the final results, you see that Treveyon Henderson went for $2 less than Bucky Irving.

I've also come to see rigid tools like VBD or trying to structure your player acquisition strategy as limited. I know within the first 5 minutes of my SF Auction this year that it was going to be very unlike previous auctions. And I had used a lot of league specific means of trying to ascertain value (QB6 goes for X amount on average, and RB7 goes for Y amount).

If you're interested in footballguys tools, they're here.

 

[Payne]

Fantasy Pros, Footballguys, and other places that try to give auction values for players seem like they're useless by undervaluing top talent and overvaluing mid talent. I've doing auctions in a variety of leagues for years and have noticed this every single year. What 0.5 PPR leagues are people getting Justin Jefferson for $41? Puka for $28? How about Saquon for $44 in PPR? I get these are FBG ranking but these are still top players at the position and pretty much every one of these 'values' won't get you any of these players. Just look at Sleeper or Yahoo projected prices and it feels like these other websites don't cross check the market rate on any of these players but just plug projections into a spreadsheet that is poorly optimized with no anchor to reality. Is is just a lack of effort for the draft format?

Have you tried using the old school VBD tool? I have said it many times, I find the auction values within that spreadsheet to be as close to "real" as any tool.
I'm sure Joe won't like hearing this, but forget DD. It's way off for my auction leagues.

I have been running auctions for over 20 years. As wgoldsh said, each league is different. I have historical data going back 20 years.
That is the biggest tool you can have.

Can you show me where the old school VBD tool is? I'm sure I've used it before, but no idea where.

As far as each league being different, of course it is. But I still feel current auction values are egregiously off the mark for 99% of leagues.

Download the VBD app. Turn auction values on, set the "team cap" to whatever it is, adjust your scoring and roster requirements as needed and fire it up.
While not exact, I find the values to be much closer to reality than any other tool out there.

 

[sushinsky4tsar]

Maybe look at them as an absolute minimum to price enforce, even though I'm sure these were intended as an actual valuation? If they're not customized to your specific league settings, they're pretty worthless. Past the 25%-40% mark of the auction, pretty worthless once the "new economy" takes shape. The last 1/3 of our superflex auction turned into a regular draft with the top remaining budget occasionally blocking the original bid. Guys that would have gone for $25-30 if they were one of the first ten tames called were going unchecked for a $0 or $1 bid by the end.

To be fair, if any team managed to stay fully disciplined and conservative on the early bidding, they probably would have cleaned up in the middle and back-end.

 

[Pots]

Fantasy Pros, Footballguys, and other places that try to give auction values for players seem like they're useless by undervaluing top talent and overvaluing mid talent. I've doing auctions in a variety of leagues for years and have noticed this every single year. What 0.5 PPR leagues are people getting Justin Jefferson for $41? Puka for $28? How about Saquon for $44 in PPR? I get these are FBG ranking but these are still top players at the position and pretty much every one of these 'values' won't get you any of these players. Just look at Sleeper or Yahoo projected prices and it feels like these other websites don't cross check the market rate on any of these players but just plug projections into a spreadsheet that is poorly optimized with no anchor to reality. Is is just a lack of effort for the draft format?

Have you tried using the old school VBD tool? I have said it many times, I find the auction values within that spreadsheet to be as close to "real" as any tool.
I'm sure Joe won't like hearing this, but forget DD. It's way off for my auction leagues.

I have been running auctions for over 20 years. As wgoldsh said, each league is different. I have historical data going back 20 years.
That is the biggest tool you can have.

Can you show me where the old school VBD tool is? I'm sure I've used it before, but no idea where.

As far as each league being different, of course it is. But I still feel current auction values are egregiously off the mark for 99% of leagues.

Download the VBD app. Turn auction values on, set the "team cap" to whatever it is, adjust your scoring and roster requirements as needed and fire it up.
While not exact, I find the values to be much closer to reality than any other tool out there.

I did this and have the same issues. Prices are WAY under where they should be. Do you find these prices to reflect your drafts this year?

 

[Runkle]

Isn't the difference "the price they're selling for" vs. "what they're actually worth"? If people overpay for big names, that's on them.

 

[RenegadeRoy]

Auction is almost totally dependent on what your leaguemates value. Best you can get is averages

Exactly. Historic league data is going to be your best information.

On top of that, setting a par sheet (how much you want to spend, roughly, on each roster spot) is huge.

 

[Ramblin Wreck]

Isn't the difference "the price they're selling for" vs. "what they're actually worth"? If people overpay for big names, that's on them.

You have to adjust and "overpay" for big names if others are too. Sure, you can get value on the 3rd and 4th rounders all day long but if you bypass the top 15-25 players because you valued them less than your leaguemates, you're not going to win.

 

[sushinsky4tsar]

Will have to check into VBD app next year if we're still doing auction. I would think that it you're punching in all of the settings, shouldn't the total valuation for all players match the budget, multiplied by the total teams in the league?

It's not surprising that the one team in your league that likes that player the most is going to overpay on his suggested value. The key is being right on your "overpays", or finding the guys that were actually undervalued. If it's systemic where all studs are priced under what everyone is willing to pay and all low level guys are priced too high, then yeah, probably on the app. And yes, I have made this observation on a lot of the default auction cheat sheets. The curve is way more flat than it probably should be. Nobody is wasting $4 of their budget for guys that will be almost entirely interchangeable with undrafted players.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Something something Mike Tyson everyone has a plan until they’re punched in the face.

Player “value” is totally dependent on who’s bidding on them. In my lone auction dynasty start-up many moons ago, my plan was to have Mahomes, Kamara, and DHop regardless of cost. I overpaid for all 3. (Had a surprisingly good team despite that somewhat boneheaded strategy)

But my point is, Mahomes value was $75/250 (or whatever) because I wanted to pay it. That, in the end, was the only determining factor in Mahomes “value” — what I was willing to pay.

Most value lists are averages. If I’m paying $75 and someone else is paying $25, that asset’s average is $50. But in the next auction he could still go for $25 or $75. So value lists for auctions aren’t useless, but they’re not particularly functional while planning a draft.

 

[Pots]

Will have to check into VBD app next year if we're still doing auction. I would think that it you're punching in all of the settings, shouldn't the total valuation for all players match the budget, multiplied by the total teams in the league?

It's not surprising that the one team in your league that likes that player the most is going to overpay on his suggested value. The key is being right on your "overpays", or finding the guys that were actually undervalued. If it's systemic where all studs are priced under what everyone is willing to pay and all low level guys are priced too high, then yeah, probably on the app. And yes, I have made this observation on a lot of the default auction cheat sheets. The curve is way more flat than it probably should be. Nobody is wasting $4 of their budget for guys that will be almost entirely interchangeable with undrafted players.

The problem is the spreadsheet makes it a linear trickle in value then in reality, top players have a bigger premium and run in the mill bottom half players are usually much cheaper. This is true with every auction draft I've ever done because loading your team with WR2s and RB2s value in the back end only is a losing strategy. It isn't about overpaying, it's that you're not getting a top 10 ranked player for under $40. Maybe not even under $50. Or I've been living in a bubble and everyone else's auctions have top talent go on the cheap.

 

[Pots]

Something something Mike Tyson everyone has a plan until they’re punched in the face.

Player “value” is totally dependent on who’s bidding on them. In my lone auction dynasty start-up many moons ago, my plan was to have Mahomes, Kamara, and DHop regardless of cost. I overpaid for all 3. (Had a surprisingly good team despite that somewhat boneheaded strategy)

But my point is, Mahomes value was $75/250 (or whatever) because I wanted to pay it. That, in the end, was the only determining factor in Mahomes “value” — what I was willing to pay.

Most value lists are averages. If I’m paying $75 and someone else is paying $25, that asset’s average is $50. But in the next auction he could still go for $25 or $75. So value lists for auctions aren’t useless, but they’re not particularly functional while planning a draft.

My point is that the value lists are NOWHERE NEAR that averages of what these players are going for on the top or bottom end.

 

[sushinsky4tsar]

Will have to check into VBD app next year if we're still doing auction. I would think that it you're punching in all of the settings, shouldn't the total valuation for all players match the budget, multiplied by the total teams in the league?

It's not surprising that the one team in your league that likes that player the most is going to overpay on his suggested value. The key is being right on your "overpays", or finding the guys that were actually undervalued. If it's systemic where all studs are priced under what everyone is willing to pay and all low level guys are priced too high, then yeah, probably on the app. And yes, I have made this observation on a lot of the default auction cheat sheets. The curve is way more flat than it probably should be. Nobody is wasting $4 of their budget for guys that will be almost entirely interchangeable with undrafted players.

The problem is the spreadsheet makes it a linear trickle in value then in reality, top players have a bigger premium and run in the mill bottom half players are usually much cheaper. This is true with every auction draft I've ever done because loading your team with WR2s and RB2s value in the back end only is a losing strategy. It isn't about overpaying, it's that you're not getting a top 10 ranked player for under $40. Maybe not even under $50. Or I've been living in a bubble and everyone else's auctions have top talent go on the cheap.

No doubt about it, if you stay disciplined according the spreadsheet, let your entire league overpay for studs, gain the advantage by loading up on a deep team of RB2s & WR2s, and the teams that paid for studs are in a better place to compete even after filling out their roster with freebies, then the valuations were wrong.

I think it's worth noting, this disciplined / frugal / sucker team might not have great week 1 projections compared to the other top-heavy teams, but are we sure they wouldn't be setup to have more success as injuries take place and trades are completed?

The reality is that if the input settings don't ask you for such detail as how many teams make the playoffs or how many IR slots do you have, then they're going to be flawed.

 

[Trow]

I play in a 12 team auction league on ESPN with a $200 budget.

ESPN prices the top five-ish players each year in the $69-72 range and you will have to pay $4-6 over starting price to land them.

My auction values never match up with anything online. Here's the top four players this year:

Chase $71
Bijan $70
JJ $69
Barkley $69

 

[dkp993]

This is why I created my own sheet which I adjust each year with the previous year’s data. It’s actually quite accurate but I have the advantage of years of data and the same people in the league tendencies. No external app is going to be able to provide that kind of nuance. But I will say I am able to manipulate the draft dominator settings to get it relatively close.

 

[TheDirtyWord]

Will have to check into VBD app next year if we're still doing auction. I would think that it you're punching in all of the settings, shouldn't the total valuation for all players match the budget, multiplied by the total teams in the league?

It's not surprising that the one team in your league that likes that player the most is going to overpay on his suggested value. The key is being right on your "overpays", or finding the guys that were actually undervalued. If it's systemic where all studs are priced under what everyone is willing to pay and all low level guys are priced too high, then yeah, probably on the app. And yes, I have made this observation on a lot of the default auction cheat sheets. The curve is way more flat than it probably should be. Nobody is wasting $4 of their budget for guys that will be almost entirely interchangeable with undrafted players.

The problem is the spreadsheet makes it a linear trickle in value then in reality, top players have a bigger premium and run in the mill bottom half players are usually much cheaper. This is true with every auction draft I've ever done because loading your team with WR2s and RB2s value in the back end only is a losing strategy. It isn't about overpaying, it's that you're not getting a top 10 ranked player for under $40. Maybe not even under $50. Or I've been living in a bubble and everyone else's auctions have top talent go on the cheap.

No doubt about it, if you stay disciplined according the spreadsheet, let your entire league overpay for studs, gain the advantage by loading up on a deep team of RB2s & WR2s, and the teams that paid for studs are in a better place to compete even after filling out their roster with freebies, then the valuations were wrong.

I think it's worth noting, this disciplined / frugal / sucker team might not have great week 1 projections compared to the other top-heavy teams, but are we sure they wouldn't be setup to have more success as injuries take place and trades are completed?

The reality is that if the input settings don't ask you for such detail as how many teams make the playoffs or how many IR slots do you have, then they're going to be flawed.

And what if everyone is disciplined?

Leagues that have done auctions for awhile get savvy. You've got owners that have made that 'overpayment' mistake and remember that. So while you've waited for owners to overpay, perhaps now they've gotten studs at pretty good value. And because of that, the competition for RB2's/WR2's has shot up because everyone has more $$.

Auction is more about the guys in the room, not the players.

 

[Pots]

Will have to check into VBD app next year if we're still doing auction. I would think that it you're punching in all of the settings, shouldn't the total valuation for all players match the budget, multiplied by the total teams in the league?

It's not surprising that the one team in your league that likes that player the most is going to overpay on his suggested value. The key is being right on your "overpays", or finding the guys that were actually undervalued. If it's systemic where all studs are priced under what everyone is willing to pay and all low level guys are priced too high, then yeah, probably on the app. And yes, I have made this observation on a lot of the default auction cheat sheets. The curve is way more flat than it probably should be. Nobody is wasting $4 of their budget for guys that will be almost entirely interchangeable with undrafted players.

The problem is the spreadsheet makes it a linear trickle in value then in reality, top players have a bigger premium and run in the mill bottom half players are usually much cheaper. This is true with every auction draft I've ever done because loading your team with WR2s and RB2s value in the back end only is a losing strategy. It isn't about overpaying, it's that you're not getting a top 10 ranked player for under $40. Maybe not even under $50. Or I've been living in a bubble and everyone else's auctions have top talent go on the cheap.

No doubt about it, if you stay disciplined according the spreadsheet, let your entire league overpay for studs, gain the advantage by loading up on a deep team of RB2s & WR2s, and the teams that paid for studs are in a better place to compete even after filling out their roster with freebies, then the valuations were wrong.

I think it's worth noting, this disciplined / frugal / sucker team might not have great week 1 projections compared to the other top-heavy teams, but are we sure they wouldn't be setup to have more success as injuries take place and trades are completed?

The reality is that if the input settings don't ask you for such detail as how many teams make the playoffs or how many IR slots do you have, then they're going to be flawed.

They will run into the WDIS problem with multiple mediocre options that may or may not pan out. Great strategy if you feel confident on hitting EVERY SINGLE POSITION with underrated guys, and lots of depth, but you won't have any cornerstones to count on unless you get lucky.

This isn't an input setting flaw imo, it's a lack of understanding how auctions work on each end of the curve. That, or a conscious effort to say the best strategy is to punt the top 15+ players.

 

[sushinsky4tsar]

I play in a 12 team auction league on ESPN with a $200 budget.

ESPN prices the top five-ish players each year in the $69-72 range and you will have to pay $4-6 over starting price to land them.

My auction values never match up with anything online. Here's the top four players this year:

Chase $71
Bijan $70
JJ $69
Barkley $69

I guess I'd ask, are the guys ESPN values at $2, $3, $6 really an asset to your team's bench? If the answer is not really, then your league is probably smart to just fill out those spots with $0/$1 players and put the saving towards "overpaying" for studs.

 

[Pots]

I play in a 12 team auction league on ESPN with a $200 budget.

ESPN prices the top five-ish players each year in the $69-72 range and you will have to pay $4-6 over starting price to land them.

My auction values never match up with anything online. Here's the top four players this year:

Chase $71
Bijan $70
JJ $69
Barkley $69

This is much more accurate to what is being seen across other drafts I've been in.

 

[J Giles Band]

Will have to check into VBD app next year if we're still doing auction. I would think that it you're punching in all of the settings, shouldn't the total valuation for all players match the budget, multiplied by the total teams in the league?

It's not surprising that the one team in your league that likes that player the most is going to overpay on his suggested value. The key is being right on your "overpays", or finding the guys that were actually undervalued. If it's systemic where all studs are priced under what everyone is willing to pay and all low level guys are priced too high, then yeah, probably on the app. And yes, I have made this observation on a lot of the default auction cheat sheets. The curve is way more flat than it probably should be. Nobody is wasting $4 of their budget for guys that will be almost entirely interchangeable with undrafted players.

The problem is the spreadsheet makes it a linear trickle in value then in reality, top players have a bigger premium and run in the mill bottom half players are usually much cheaper. This is true with every auction draft I've ever done because loading your team with WR2s and RB2s value in the back end only is a losing strategy. It isn't about overpaying, it's that you're not getting a top 10 ranked player for under $40. Maybe not even under $50. Or I've been living in a bubble and everyone else's auctions have top talent go on the cheap.

No doubt about it, if you stay disciplined according the spreadsheet, let your entire league overpay for studs, gain the advantage by loading up on a deep team of RB2s & WR2s, and the teams that paid for studs are in a better place to compete even after filling out their roster with freebies, then the valuations were wrong.

I think it's worth noting, this disciplined / frugal / sucker team might not have great week 1 projections compared to the other top-heavy teams, but are we sure they wouldn't be setup to have more success as injuries take place and trades are completed?

The reality is that if the input settings don't ask you for such detail as how many teams make the playoffs or how many IR slots do you have, then they're going to be flawed.

And what if everyone is disciplined?

Leagues that have done auctions for awhile get savvy. You've got owners that have made that 'overpayment' mistake and remember that. So while you've waited for owners to overpay, perhaps now they've gotten studs at pretty good value. And because of that, the competition for RB2's/WR2's has shot up because everyone has more $$.

Auction is more about the guys in the room, not the players.

Agree with the bolded. However what it has resulted in in our auction league is the 'studs' are more valued than ever.

The value contracts are mostly the teams' keepers (many from rookie drafts). Once top players enter our auction, they are rarely inexpensive again. But the biggest takeaway after 18 years is that our owners value the very top guys more than ever. CeeDee Lamb was far and away the best player available this year and a team spent $61 of their $100 budget to land him (my max bid was $60 and I forced him to pay $61 to get Lamb). The next best WR available was A.J. Brown, best RB available was Kyren Williams or James Cook. Best QB was easily Josh Allen. The scarcity of difference makers over the years has driven their prices wayyyy up in our league. And I don't see that changing.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

My point is that the value lists are NOWHERE NEAR that averages of what these players are going for on the top or bottom end.

And I agree. Because that top and bottom are only as valid as the sample size they’re pulled from.

In your next auction someone might drop $90/200 on Bijan because I JUST HAVE TO HAVE BIJAN!!!!

Averages also assume some level of rational thinking or managerial competence. We all know from drafting with randos that **** goes out the window in a hurry sometimes.

You get someone inexperienced shooting their wad on a couple players and suddenly your averages are meaningless.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Auction is more about the guys in the room, not the players.

This X

 

[Trow]

You actually do get usage out of those lower dollar players.

It's an old league and most of the team's blow 80-85% of their budget on the first 3-4 picks. A couple of guys might be a little more conservative with their dollars early and be able to get nice value and out-bid everyone on all those mid-round players (rounds 4-8 in snakes) that are left after the studs are nominated and rostered.

 

[Scoresman]

The move here is to not use publicly available auction values. A few years ago I started keeping track of my league's pricing and that has helped me come up with super accurate price estimates for my league. Probably the single best piece of research I do to prep.

Only works if you draft with the same guys every year though.

 

[J Giles Band]

You actually do get usage out of those lower dollar players.

It's an old league and most of the team's blow 80-85% of their budget on the first 3-4 picks. A couple of guys might be a little more conservative with their dollars early and be able to get nice value and out-bid everyone on all those mid-round players (rounds 4-8 in snakes) that are left after the studs are nominated and rostered.

Sometimes you do... sometimes you don't.

I've found my depth is often wasted unless I am hit with injuries. Our somewhat shallow 12-team league doesn't help with that. If a team goes with studs and $1 guys, I find they are rewarded more often than not... again, unless injuries hit their top guys.

As always, depends upon the league. And luck...

 

[Pots]

My point is that the value lists are NOWHERE NEAR that averages of what these players are going for on the top or bottom end.

And I agree. Because that top and bottom are only as valid as the sample size they’re pulled from.

In your next auction someone might drop $90/200 on Bijan because I JUST HAVE TO HAVE BIJAN!!!!

Averages also assume some level of rational thinking or managerial competence. We all know from drafting with randos that **** goes out the window in a hurry sometimes.

You get someone inexperienced shooting their wad on a couple players and suddenly your averages are meaningless.

I think you're missing the point. What does a list that shows some of the most important players 20% lower than what they will in all likelihood go for on average in the vast majority of auctions provide? Or am I mistaken and the auction values are in line with reasonable market price of the top tier players and everyone else is simply overpaying?

 

[sushinsky4tsar]

Will have to check into VBD app next year if we're still doing auction. I would think that it you're punching in all of the settings, shouldn't the total valuation for all players match the budget, multiplied by the total teams in the league?

It's not surprising that the one team in your league that likes that player the most is going to overpay on his suggested value. The key is being right on your "overpays", or finding the guys that were actually undervalued. If it's systemic where all studs are priced under what everyone is willing to pay and all low level guys are priced too high, then yeah, probably on the app. And yes, I have made this observation on a lot of the default auction cheat sheets. The curve is way more flat than it probably should be. Nobody is wasting $4 of their budget for guys that will be almost entirely interchangeable with undrafted players.

The problem is the spreadsheet makes it a linear trickle in value then in reality, top players have a bigger premium and run in the mill bottom half players are usually much cheaper. This is true with every auction draft I've ever done because loading your team with WR2s and RB2s value in the back end only is a losing strategy. It isn't about overpaying, it's that you're not getting a top 10 ranked player for under $40. Maybe not even under $50. Or I've been living in a bubble and everyone else's auctions have top talent go on the cheap.

No doubt about it, if you stay disciplined according the spreadsheet, let your entire league overpay for studs, gain the advantage by loading up on a deep team of RB2s & WR2s, and the teams that paid for studs are in a better place to compete even after filling out their roster with freebies, then the valuations were wrong.

I think it's worth noting, this disciplined / frugal / sucker team might not have great week 1 projections compared to the other top-heavy teams, but are we sure they wouldn't be setup to have more success as injuries take place and trades are completed?

The reality is that if the input settings don't ask you for such detail as how many teams make the playoffs or how many IR slots do you have, then they're going to be flawed.

And what if everyone is disciplined?

Leagues that have done auctions for awhile get savvy. You've got owners that have made that 'overpayment' mistake and remember that. So while you've waited for owners to overpay, perhaps now they've gotten studs at pretty good value. And because of that, the competition for RB2's/WR2's has shot up because everyone has more $$.

Auction is more about the guys in the room, not the players.

No doubt about it, I get the feeling that all these valuations might be more realistic if the auction was being conducted by 12 computers. Enter the human element and all the best laid plans go out the window in a hurry.

I've seen two teams save their money early on the top talent. Sometimes, they're bidding up against each other for the next tier of guys and they're not getting much of a reward for their early frugality. Sometimes, you can almost see the wink, nod in motion. One guys gets their guy at a great price. Then goes silent as the other guy gets his at a bargain. Guys who spent up early on studs are at a complete loss to stop the bargains. Auctions are a human animal for sure.

Going conservative and acquiring great depth isn't going to accomplish much if you're not willing to capitalize on trades as the the teams without depth succumb to injuries. If those same teams aren't willing to trade one of their remaining big guns to balance out their team, but instead go into silent mode, that's a factor as well.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

My point is that the value lists are NOWHERE NEAR that averages of what these players are going for on the top or bottom end.

And I agree. Because that top and bottom are only as valid as the sample size they’re pulled from.

In your next auction someone might drop $90/200 on Bijan because I JUST HAVE TO HAVE BIJAN!!!!

Averages also assume some level of rational thinking or managerial competence. We all know from drafting with randos that **** goes out the window in a hurry sometimes.

You get someone inexperienced shooting their wad on a couple players and suddenly your averages are meaningless.

I think you're missing the point. What does a list that shows some of the most important players 20% lower than what they will in all likelihood go for on average in the vast majority of auctions provide? Or am I mistaken and the auction values are in line with reasonable market price of the top tier players and everyone else is simply overpaying?

I’m not missing the point at all. I’m affirming it.

Auction value charts are meaningless because it’s about who’s bidding at any given time for any given player.

Auction value charts are worthless. Sorry, I didn’t think I was unclear.

 

[Ramblin Wreck]

This is why I created my own sheet which I adjust each year with the previous year’s data. It’s actually quite accurate but I have the advantage of years of data and the same people in the league tendencies. No external app is going to be able to provide that kind of nuance. But I will say I am able to manipulate the draft dominator settings to get it relatively close.

Glad I'm not the only nerd that does this. I have 10 years of data on my league and can accurately predict auction values within a couple of bucks now in my league except the outliers that inevitably become overbids or underbids once or twice in the auction.

 

[Pots]

Will have to check into VBD app next year if we're still doing auction. I would think that it you're punching in all of the settings, shouldn't the total valuation for all players match the budget, multiplied by the total teams in the league?

It's not surprising that the one team in your league that likes that player the most is going to overpay on his suggested value. The key is being right on your "overpays", or finding the guys that were actually undervalued. If it's systemic where all studs are priced under what everyone is willing to pay and all low level guys are priced too high, then yeah, probably on the app. And yes, I have made this observation on a lot of the default auction cheat sheets. The curve is way more flat than it probably should be. Nobody is wasting $4 of their budget for guys that will be almost entirely interchangeable with undrafted players.

The problem is the spreadsheet makes it a linear trickle in value then in reality, top players have a bigger premium and run in the mill bottom half players are usually much cheaper. This is true with every auction draft I've ever done because loading your team with WR2s and RB2s value in the back end only is a losing strategy. It isn't about overpaying, it's that you're not getting a top 10 ranked player for under $40. Maybe not even under $50. Or I've been living in a bubble and everyone else's auctions have top talent go on the cheap.

No doubt about it, if you stay disciplined according the spreadsheet, let your entire league overpay for studs, gain the advantage by loading up on a deep team of RB2s & WR2s, and the teams that paid for studs are in a better place to compete even after filling out their roster with freebies, then the valuations were wrong.

I think it's worth noting, this disciplined / frugal / sucker team might not have great week 1 projections compared to the other top-heavy teams, but are we sure they wouldn't be setup to have more success as injuries take place and trades are completed?

The reality is that if the input settings don't ask you for such detail as how many teams make the playoffs or how many IR slots do you have, then they're going to be flawed.

And what if everyone is disciplined?

Leagues that have done auctions for awhile get savvy. You've got owners that have made that 'overpayment' mistake and remember that. So while you've waited for owners to overpay, perhaps now they've gotten studs at pretty good value. And because of that, the competition for RB2's/WR2's has shot up because everyone has more $$.

Auction is more about the guys in the room, not the players.

No doubt about it, I get the feeling that all these valuations might be more realistic if the auction was being conducted by 12 computers. Enter the human element and all the best laid plans go out the window in a hurry.

I've seen two teams save their money early on the top talent. Sometimes, they're bidding up against each other for the next tier of guys and they're not getting much of a reward for their early frugality. Sometimes, you can almost see the wink, nod in motion. One guys gets their guy at a great price. Then goes silent as the other guy gets his at a bargain. Guys who spent up early on studs are at a complete loss to stop the bargains. Auction are a human animal for sure.

Going conservative and acquiring great depth isn't going to accomplish much if you're not willing to capitalize on trades as the the teams without depth succumb to injuries. If those same teams aren't will to trade one of their remaining big guns to balance out their team, but instead go into silent mode, that's a factor as well.

I think it's more of a flaw of ignoring important variables. There is more certainty and higher ceilings when it comes to top ranked players. This isn't factored at all. They assume projections are accurate and that each RB2/3 is going to keep their role and hit their projection in as much certainty as Barkley.

 

[pinkstapler]

I agree with your premise. And maybe it's just me, but what you're pointing out is exactly what I love about auction drafts. There is no guideline or playbook. It is pretty much 90% dictated by your own individual values, and then 10% adjustments based on your league values. Maybe some people find that split closer to even, but the amount of time I put into draft prep and the way auction drafts work, I like to dictate the terms and do more acting than reacting.

Personally, I'd suggest throwing all numbers out the window. ADP corollaries to auction values basically mean zilch. Look at your roster as the meal you're going to be eating all season, the player pool as the dinner menu you're picking from, and using your budget come up with percentages of that budget you'd be willing to spend on each menu item in an effort to create your ideal dinner. Item on the menu you wouldn't ever want to eat? Ignore it completely. Item on the menu you could have two portions of each night and satisfied, assign a high percentage to it. Run through this process for the 80-100 players you probably think are most appetizing, and then start mocking teams you could put together based on the percentages you picked and how you can best use your budget. If you don't love the menus that are coming together, go back through and tweak the percentages. I normally do this 3-4 times until I finally settle on my "purchasing guide". For the top 20 or so I actually usually have a percentage range; so like Drake London might actually be 8-12% rather than a flat 10% as it helps make some on the fly adjustments as your budget starts to get smaller.

Little off topic; but I'd also suggest reading up on and employing some strategies with regards to nominations. I have had good success with two more common strats here; 1. Nominating high profile players I am down on compared to consensus, eg this year a player like Tyreek Hill, Terry, or LaPorta. Nominate for lowest possible bid, feel out the bidding action, push the bid up when safe, and then dive out. The larger your budget compared to your league mates, the more you can control and manipulate the draft. 2. Nominate mid value players you consider "my guys" after you've gained that controlling position budget wise. You can still get taken for a ride by someone who loves a player like Egbuka/JCM this year as much as you, but this allows you to either get your guy, or if you've really pushed to the max percentage you determined predraft you would pay, it again lets you drain someone else's for a player who really should not be going for that much.

Man I wish more of my leagues would move to an auction draft. So much more exciting. And really allows you to build whatever roster you want. (And also limits league mates crying they couldn't get their guys because of draft order haha).

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

computers. Enter the human element and all the best laid plans go out the window in a hurry.

yep.

Also stressors at different points of the draft create weird inflection points where managers will do irrational things for rational reasons.

Hypothetical: a team goes WR/QB/TE heavy & now finds himself having 8 players, with no RB. Suddenly the best RB on the board are Braelon Allen, Rhamondre Stevenson, and JCM.

Might that owner bid an unreasonable amount on all 3 because they’ve painted themselves into a corner? Desperation is never pretty. It’s the snake draft equivalent of reaching for a guy by 2+ rounds.

And it happens all… the… time in auctions. Whether it’s a desperate “have to have” move as described above or a simple mancrush situation, there isn’t an auction value chart in the world that can predict those scenarios.

 

[sushinsky4tsar]

Can we say this for sure?

Add the "suggested value" of all players on whatever cheat sheet you're looking at. If that amount doesn't match the total dollars in the league, you know it's going to be unreliable.

12 teams x $200 starting budget = $2400 A perfectly customized cheat sheet for your league should add up to approximately 98-100% of this amount, allowing for some teams not using up their full balance. If there's a $1 minimum, there's obviously going to be a lot of undraftable or completely replaceable guys that can have their dollar ignored.

IF the above is true in a $0 minimum bid setting, do you agree approximately with the line the cheat sheet is drawing for the $0 guys vs the guys you would be willing to pay $1 or $2 to add to your bench? If the valuations on these guys seems too high, then you need to bump these values down to taste and allocate those dollars towards the top studs or whatever tier you feel is being undervalued.

 

[Proteus]

I play in a 12 team auction league on ESPN with a $200 budget.

ESPN prices the top five-ish players each year in the $69-72 range and you will have to pay $4-6 over starting price to land them.

My auction values never match up with anything online. Here's the top four players this year:

Chase $71
Bijan $70
JJ $69
Barkley $69

In a 14 teamer "practice" draft on ESPN it looks like this:

Chase. $82
Bijan $81
JJ $79
Barkley $79

It's absolutely bonkers and I don't understand it. I sought answers as to why this happens in another thread and got nowhere.

 

[Pots]

I play in a 12 team auction league on ESPN with a $200 budget.

ESPN prices the top five-ish players each year in the $69-72 range and you will have to pay $4-6 over starting price to land them.

My auction values never match up with anything online. Here's the top four players this year:

Chase $71
Bijan $70
JJ $69
Barkley $69

In a 14 teamer "practice" draft on ESPN it looks like this:

Chase. $82
Bijan $81
JJ $79
Barkley $79

It's absolutely bonkers and I don't understand it. I sought answers as to why this happens in another thread and got nowhere.

Practice drafts with randos consist of people who aren't really trying and want a particular player while not sticking around to get punished for overpaying. That said, those prices are closer to what your ESPN draft will end up like than what FBG Auction Values say.

 

[sushinsky4tsar]

I play in a 12 team auction league on ESPN with a $200 budget.

ESPN prices the top five-ish players each year in the $69-72 range and you will have to pay $4-6 over starting price to land them.

My auction values never match up with anything online. Here's the top four players this year:

Chase $71
Bijan $70
JJ $69
Barkley $69

In a 14 teamer "practice" draft on ESPN it looks like this:

Chase. $82
Bijan $81
JJ $79
Barkley $79

It's absolutely bonkers and I don't understand it. I sought answers as to why this happens in another thread and got nowhere.

If the $71, $70, $69 valuations are mathematically sound from a VBD perspective, doesn't it just come down to the teams winning these players at that bid liking these players that much more than their already lofty projections? It shouldn't be surprising that the 1/14th top "fan" of Chase is willing to pay 15% more than what his median projection calls for.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

It's absolutely bonkers and I don't understand it. I sought answers as to why this happens in another thread and got nowhere.

People making “dynasty value charts” are rational. They are thinking rationally, in the quiet comfort of their desk chair.

People bidding on players are irrational, sometimes on drugs/alcohol (no judgement) and are under pressure of building g a team with which to compete.

People making draft value charts don’t have favorite players in mind, nor do they have the context of team build or the pressure of bidding against other irrational people.

It makes perfect sense in that it’s nonsensical. Value chart makers are trying to square a circle.

 

[Proteus]

I play in a 12 team auction league on ESPN with a $200 budget.

ESPN prices the top five-ish players each year in the $69-72 range and you will have to pay $4-6 over starting price to land them.

My auction values never match up with anything online. Here's the top four players this year:

Chase $71
Bijan $70
JJ $69
Barkley $69

In a 14 teamer "practice" draft on ESPN it looks like this:

Chase. $82
Bijan $81
JJ $79
Barkley $79

It's absolutely bonkers and I don't understand it. I sought answers as to why this happens in another thread and got nowhere.

Practice drafts with randos consist of people who aren't really trying and want a particular player while not sticking around to get punished for overpaying. That said, those prices are closer to what your ESPN draft will end up like than what FBG Auction Values say.

This isn't a typical mock entered through the lobby. In fact they don't even have 14 team auctions in the lobby.

This I believe is a new feature at ESPN, where you go to your league page, hit "practice draft" and you are by yourself with your leagmuemates teams all listed, but controlled by the computer.

These are the listed prices, and they are nuts.

Meanwhile at the bottom I think they are as egregiously low as these are high.

In other words I have no f-ing idea where the listed values are coming from.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

If the $71, $70, $69 valuations are mathematically sound from a VBD perspective, doesn't it just come down to the teams winning these players at that bid liking these players that much more than their already lofty projections?

 

[Proteus]

It's absolutely bonkers and I don't understand it. I sought answers as to why this happens in another thread and got nowhere.

People making “dynasty value charts” are rational. They are thinking rationally, in the quiet comfort of their desk chair.

People bidding on players are irrational, sometimes on drugs/alcohol (no judgement) and are under pressure of building g a team with which to compete.

People making draft value charts don’t have favorite players in mind, nor do they have the context of team build or the pressure of bidding against other irrational people.

It makes perfect sense in that it’s nonsensical. Value chart makers are trying to square a circle.

But if you're sitting in a real auction with THOSE values sitting there to the left of each player, there is no way that doesn't affect the minds in the room.

I mean if we start getting in the 80s on that highest tier I just might piss myself.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

It's absolutely bonkers and I don't understand it. I sought answers as to why this happens in another thread and got nowhere.

People making “dynasty value charts” are rational. They are thinking rationally, in the quiet comfort of their desk chair.

People bidding on players are irrational, sometimes on drugs/alcohol (no judgement) and are under pressure of building g a team with which to compete.

People making draft value charts don’t have favorite players in mind, nor do they have the context of team build or the pressure of bidding against other irrational people.

It makes perfect sense in that it’s nonsensical. Value chart makers are trying to square a circle.

But if you're sitting in a real auction with THOSE values sitting there to the left of each player, there is no way that doesn't affect the minds in the room.

I mean if we start getting in the 80s on that highest tier I just might piss myself.

I guess it depends on the overall budget but yeah, it will influence folks.

Not as much as man-crushes and attempts to bid up a player gone wrong will through.

I still think listed/suggested values are borderline irrelevant because people will pay what they have to, and most go into actions looking for bargains / paying less than the suggested value.

Plus once you’re in the middle of the draft and moonshots have been taken, the remaining bidders simply won’t have to pay that much for those players for lack of financial competition.

Man, all this auction talk is making me itch to do another auction draft. It’s been like 5-6 years.

 

[Proteus]

It's absolutely bonkers and I don't understand it. I sought answers as to why this happens in another thread and got nowhere.

People making “dynasty value charts” are rational. They are thinking rationally, in the quiet comfort of their desk chair.

People bidding on players are irrational, sometimes on drugs/alcohol (no judgement) and are under pressure of building g a team with which to compete.

People making draft value charts don’t have favorite players in mind, nor do they have the context of team build or the pressure of bidding against other irrational people.

It makes perfect sense in that it’s nonsensical. Value chart makers are trying to square a circle.

But if you're sitting in a real auction with THOSE values sitting there to the left of each player, there is no way that doesn't affect the minds in the room.

I mean if we start getting in the 80s on that highest tier I just might piss myself.

I guess it depends on the overall budget but yeah, it will influence folks.

Not as much as man-crushes and attempts to bid up a player gone wrong will through.

I still think listed/suggested values are borderline irrelevant because people will pay what they have to, and most go into actions looking for bargains / paying less than the suggested value.

Plus once you’re in the middle of the draft and moonshots have been taken, the remaining bidders simply won’t have to pay that much for those players for lack of financial competition.

Man, all this auction talk is making me itch to do another auction draft. It’s been like 5-6 years.

I've gotten really good at snakes.

After four years of auctions in this one league . . . I'm still grasping in the dark.

So I understand why guys like it . . . but I'm trying not to hate it.

 

[Deranged Hermit]

I played in an auction league for a decade so I have some experience. It is very, very difficult to predict auction values. I always just tiered my guys and put an approximate percentage on how much I want to spend on each position (I would go 50% on WRs, 30% on RBs, 15% on my qb, 5% on TE). I would only spend a buck on DEF and K, so no budget needed there, I would just steal money left over from a certain position.

 

[pinkstapler]

It's absolutely bonkers and I don't understand it. I sought answers as to why this happens in another thread and got nowhere.

People making “dynasty value charts” are rational. They are thinking rationally, in the quiet comfort of their desk chair.

People bidding on players are irrational, sometimes on drugs/alcohol (no judgement) and are under pressure of building g a team with which to compete.

People making draft value charts don’t have favorite players in mind, nor do they have the context of team build or the pressure of bidding against other irrational people.

It makes perfect sense in that it’s nonsensical. Value chart makers are trying to square a circle.

But if you're sitting in a real auction with THOSE values sitting there to the left of each player, there is no way that doesn't affect the minds in the room.

I mean if we start getting in the 80s on that highest tier I just might piss myself.

If you think of each $ representing a certain amount of points a player is going to score; there should ultimately be a cap to how much you should logically bid on a player. For dynasty you have to factor in longevity, but otherwise Chase certainly has a cap value to pay for him. I think many would argue last year would correlate to that cap. And IME, people overpaying for those players are what opens opportunities for me (or you) in a draft. An overlooked factor in overspending on one guy, or even just acquiring too many of the max value guys, is all your eggs are now in one basket. You are getting 20% of your seasonal fantasy points from one guy, and if you lose that guy, you basically have no shot at competing.

If I was in 100 auction drafts tomorrow I'd be surprised if I walked away with even 10 shares of Chase. He's just too expensive and priced at his pinnacle; and odds are there will be at least one guy in every league willing to spend (what I would consider) way too much of their budget for one guy. I think the arguments people make about high profile players being must draft for the whole concept of "go big or go home" gets greatly reduced outside a fixed cost system like a snake draft. Snake drafts have a somewhat linear value tier system; higher are worth more of course, but it's all relative to position and then reversed rounds.

 

[Army Eye]

OP raises a very good point and I do see a lot of replies that aren't really grasping it.

Let's establish that the objective of an auction 'cheat sheet' is not to predict anything, but just to give you proper values to adhere to in your bidding. If a draft goes 'off the rails' so to speak, that should only play into your hands even more, if you stick to the sheet, and the sheet is actually good. This isn't about the Cowboys fan who bids Dak up to $30, if you had him valued at $5 you just watch and laugh, there's no benefit in predicting any of that nonsense.

This is about a trend is that consistent and observable if you have played as many auction leagues as some of us have. Footballguys is consistently missing on the top end. The people who are winning these leagues are paying considerably more for the studs than FBG would suggest, and it is not coming back to bite them. It is a league-winning strategy.

VBD, when applied to a snake draft, is only concerned with placing players ahead of other players. Valuing players for auction bring another dimension. Gibbs is more valuable than Jacobs, but how much more valuable? Yes you can go by raw points as basic VBD would do, but it's clear to me that, just to make a very simple example, having a player that scores +100 over baseline is MORE than twice as valuable than one who scores +50. I'm sure FBG is doing some kind of math behind the scenes to account for this, but the algorithm needs to be goosed. I do agree it is too linear as is.

 

[pinkstapler]

OP raises a very good point and I do see a lot of replies that aren't really grasping it.

Let's establish that the objective of an auction 'cheat sheet' is not to predict anything, but just to give you proper values to adhere to in your bidding. If a draft goes 'off the rails' so to speak, that should only play into your hands even more, if you stick to the sheet, and the sheet is actually good. This isn't about the Cowboys fan who bids Dak up to $30, if you had him valued at $5 you just watch and laugh, there's no benefit in predicting any of that nonsense.

This is about a trend is that consistent and observable if you have played as many auction leagues as some of us have. Footballguys is consistently missing on the top end. The people who are winning these leagues are paying considerably more for the studs than FBG would suggest, and it is not coming back to bite them.

VBD, when applied to a snake draft, is only concerned with placing players ahead of other players. Valuing players for auction bring another dimension. Gibbs is more valuable than Jacobs, but how much more valuable? Yes you can go by raw points as basic VBD would do, but it's clear to me that, just to make a very simple example, having a player that scores +100 over baseline is MORE than twice as valuable than one who scores +50. I'm sure FBG is doing some kind of math behind the scenes to account for this, but the algorithm needs to be goosed. I do agree it is too linear as is.

The first sentence is true (edit: maybe not missing per se, but they are pricing these guys lower than they ever typically go) and I don't think anyone is arguing that.

My question is, is the second sentence really true? How do we know the guys who are spending 40% on one player in a ~20 man roster league are consistently winning to the point where this is how those players SHOULD be being valued? I have no data on it; but I just find it hard to believe Chase at 40% budget plus 4 middling players at 40% budget plus another ~15 scrubs at 20% budget are consistently winning these leagues.