Auction values vs. Typical Draft Round Values (1 Viewer)

[Black]

I am looking to create a chart to compare typical Auction values for players vs. where they were Drafted that year.

I am hoping to shift my 2-person keeper league from Draft to Auction. We give up the original round drafted in order to keep the player. I would need to get some comparable $-value amounts for those players to make the shift to Auction.

Ideally this would be for 10 team, PPR, Redraft, QB/RB/RB/WR/WR/Flex/TE/DST/K. I am hoping to get a couple of year's worth of data, as I assume there will be differences in positions, etc.

 

[butcher boy]

Auction values vary greatly from one league to another. If you want typical, the draft dominator will spit something out.

 

[Black]

I took values from FantasyPros.com for ADP and Average Auction values, for 10 team leagues, non-PPR, $200 cap. The names don't really matter as much as the overall trend. I graphed a pretty nice curve: as the Draft Position increases linearly, the Auction values decay exponentially.

Here's some numbers, since I need to take the average Auction cost per Draft round, and use that as the new 'value' when converting to Auction:

--The first set of numbers is ADP vs. ESPN Avg Auction value.

--The second set of numbers is the same ADP vs. an Average of Auction values from a --few sites.

I put the Players' names just for some reference, but the player (and turns out Position) doesn't really matter.

So, rough conversion from Draft Position to Auction value:

Round: Auction Range --> Auction Val

1st: $46-51 --> $50

2nd: $33-40 --> $40

3rd: $29-31 --> $30

4th: $21-22 --> $21

5th: $17 --> $17

6th: $10-13 --> $13

7th: $8-11 --> $10

8th: $4-7 --> $ 7

9th: $4-7 --> $ 6

10th: $4-6 --> $ 5

11th: $2-4 --> $ 4

12th: $2-3 --> $ 3

ADP	ESPN    	ADP	Ave  	Player          Pos1.01	$60		1.01	$56	Arian Foster	RB1.02	$55		1.02	$49	Aaron Rodgers	QB1.03	$59		1.03	$54	Ray Rice	RB1.04	$59		1.04	$53	LeSean McCoy	RB1.05	$52		1.05	$43	Tom Brady	QB1.06	$51		1.06	$48	Calvin Johnson	WR1.07	$49		1.07	$42	Drew Brees	QB1.08	$53		1.08	$46	Chris Johnson	RB1.09	$30		1.09	$33	Darren McFadden	RB1.10	$42		1.10	$37	Matthew Stafford	QB	$51			$46		2.01	$33		2.01	$32	Cam Newton	QB2.02	$39		2.02	$36	Matt Forte	RB2.03	$48		2.03	$36	Maurice Jones-Drew	RB2.04	$36		2.04	$29	Jimmy Graham	TE2.05	$39		2.05	$32	Rob Gronkowski	TE2.06	$38		2.06	$32	DeMarco Murray	RB2.07	$47		2.07	$40	Larry Fitzgerald	WR2.08	$32		2.08	$27	Adrian Peterson	RB2.09	$43		2.09	$30	Marshawn Lynch	RB2.10	$45		2.10	$35	Andre Johnson	WR	$40			$33		3.01	$25		3.01	$30	Julio Jones	WR3.02	$34		3.02	$31	Jamaal Charles	RB3.03	$40		3.03	$32	Greg Jennings	WR3.04	$23		3.04	$22	Trent Richardson	RB3.05	$29		3.05	$29	Ryan Mathews	RB3.06	$41		3.06	$33	Roddy White	WR3.07	$31		3.07	$30	A.J. Green	WR3.08	$37		3.08	$32	Wes Welker	WR3.09	$28		3.09	$24	Steven Jackson	RB3.10	$25		3.10	$22	Fred Jackson	RB	$31			$29		4.01	$29		4.01	$24	Victor Cruz	WR4.02	$24		4.02	$22	Brandon Marshall	WR4.03	$22		4.03	$20	Michael Turner	RB4.04	$32		4.04	$29	Hakeem Nicks	WR4.05	$21		4.05	$21	Jordy Nelson	WR4.06	$22		4.06	$17	Frank Gore	RB4.07	$17		4.07	$19	Ahmad Bradshaw	RB4.08	$27		4.08	$23	Michael Vick	QB4.09	$18		4.09	$17	Darren Sproles	RB4.10	$7		4.10	$14	Doug Martin	RB	$22			$21		5.01	$37		5.01	$25	Mike Wallace	WR5.02	$30		5.02	$21	Eli Manning	QB5.03	$20		5.03	$21	Steve Smith	WR5.04	$10		5.04	$12	Antonio Gates	TE5.05	$19		5.05	$19	Dez Bryant	WR5.06	$16		5.06	$16	Marques Colston	WR5.07	$11		5.07	$15	Percy Harvin	WR5.08	$3		5.08	$10	Aaron Hernandez	TE5.09	$13		5.09	$15	Peyton Manning	QB5.10	$13		5.10	$15	Reggie Bush	RB	$17			$17		6.01	$6		6.01	$12	Matt Ryan	QB6.02	$8		6.02	$10	Vernon Davis	TE6.03	$16		6.03	$19	Tony Romo	QB6.04	$7		6.04	$14	Demaryius Thomas	WR6.05	$15		6.05	$15	Brandon Lloyd	WR6.06	$17		6.06	$12	Willis McGahee	RB6.07	$9		6.07	$13	Jeremy Maclin	WR6.08	$7		6.08	$14	Philip Rivers	QB6.09	$7		6.09	$11	Jermichael Finley	TE6.10	$9		6.10	$14	Miles Austin	WR	$10			$13		7.01	$7		7.01	$10	Antonio Brown	WR7.02	$10		7.02	$13	Dwayne Bowe	WR7.03	$12		7.03	$12	BenJarvus Green-Ellis	RB7.04	$14		7.04	$15	Vincent Jackson	WR7.05	$6		7.05	$10	DeSean Jackson	WR7.06	$7		7.06	$12	Eric Decker	WR7.07	$9		7.07	$11	Shonn Greene	RB7.08	$9		7.08	$11	Steve Johnson	WR7.09	$2		7.09	$6	Jason Witten	TE7.10	$6		7.10	$11	Chris "Beanie" Wells	RB	$8			$11		8.01	$10		8.01	$9	Stevan Ridley	RB8.02	$2		8.02	$4	San Francisco 49ers	DST8.03	$4		8.03	$8	Torrey Smith	WR8.04	$2		8.04	$7	Robert Griffin III	QB8.05	$2		8.05	$7	Fred Davis	TE8.06	$3		8.06	$6	Donald Brown	RB8.07	$4		8.07	$7	Peyton Hillis	RB8.08	$11		8.08	$10	Jonathan Stewart	RB8.09	$1		8.09	$4	Brandon Pettigrew	TE8.10	$2		8.10	$6	Reggie Wayne	WR	$4			$7		9.01	$5		9.01	$7	Pierre Garcon	WR9.02	$3		9.02	$5	Tony Gonzalez	TE9.03	$4		9.03	$10	Ben Roethlisberger	QB9.04	$3		9.04	$6	Isaac Redman	RB9.05	$6		9.05	$5	Cedric Benson	RB9.06	$4		9.06	$9	Kenny Britt	WR9.07	$5		9.07	$7	DeAngelo Williams	RB9.08	$2		9.08	$6	Jay Cutler	QB9.09	$4		9.09	$6	Kevin Smith	RB9.10	$3		9.10	$6	Mark Ingram	RB	$4			$7		10.01	$7		10.01	$7	Roy Helu	RB10.02	$5		10.02	$9	Robert Meachem	WR10.03	$8		10.03	$6	Ben Tate	RB10.04	$4		10.04	$7	Matt Schaub	QB10.05	$1		10.05	$2	Baltimore Ravens	DST10.06	$5		10.06	$7	C.J. Spiller	RB10.07	$1		10.07	$4	Justin Blackmon	WR10.08	$5		10.08	$6	Michael Bush	RB10.09	$3		10.09	$5	Anquan Boldin	WR10.10	$1		10.10	$2	Houston Texans	DST	$4			$6		11.01	$1		11.01	$2	David Akers	K11.02	$2		11.02	$4	David Wilson	RB11.03	$4		11.03	$4	Malcom Floyd	WR11.04	$1		11.04	$4	Andrew Luck	QB11.05	$1		11.05	$2	Chicago Bears	DST11.06	$4		11.06	$5	Denarius Moore	WR11.07	$2		11.07	$4	Darrius Heyward-Bey	WR11.08	$1		11.08	$4	Titus Young	WR11.09	$1		11.09	$4	Jacob Tamme	TE11.10	$3		11.10	$4	Santonio Holmes	WR	$2			$4		12.01	$2		12.01	$3	Ryan Williams	RB12.02	$1		12.02	$2	Stephen Gostkowski	K12.03	$1		12.03	$2	Pittsburgh Steelers	DST12.04	$1		12.04	$2	Philadelphia Eagles	DST12.05	$0		12.05	$2	Green Bay Packers	DST12.06	$1		12.06	$2	Sebastian Janikowski	K12.07	$3		12.07	$5	Toby Gerhart	RB12.08	$1		12.08	$1	Mason Crosby	K12.09	$2		12.09	$3	Michael Crabtree	WR12.10	$3		12.10	$4	Lance Moore	WR	$2			$3

 

[Slapdash]

I have only played in one auction league (10 team, $200 cap, 2 keepers at last year plus $5), but it seems very rare to see players go for 40 or more. A lot of guys with such higher valuation are kept, but even those that aren't top out lower than I expect. For instance, I let Megatron back into the draft rather than keep him for 37 and then got him back by bidding just 37. As the clear top player left not kept, I was expecting him to go much higher. We've also had a guy every year leave between 30 and 50 on the table. Not sure how common those things are; it seems like the human element makes predicting these very difficult.

 

[mdlane]

The best way to do it is to take the average projected stats (and ff points under your league settings) for those players, and then do a VBD valuation for each players projected ff points in your league. The total projected VBD ff points represent the total pool of points available at the time you drafted last year.Then, you create a ratio for each players VBD ff points against the total pool, and apply that ratio to the total available dollars in your auction league. That resulting dollar amount will be each players 2012 auction value for your team.

 

[Black]

The best way to do it is to take the average projected stats (and ff points under your league settings) for those players, and then do a VBD valuation for each players projected ff points in your league. The total projected VBD ff points represent the total pool of points available at the time you drafted last year.Then, you create a ratio for each players VBD ff points against the total pool, and apply that ratio to the total available dollars in your auction league. That resulting dollar amount will be each players 2012 auction value for your team.

VBD is a pretty sophisticated number, based on FBG's staff. I think using the values from an ESPN might be more indicative of how my league might have actually drafted.

 

[fightingillini]

It's never easy to equate draft round values with Auction values, since the nomination process is extremely variable from league to league. Some leagues will nominate all the studs early, some leagues will have other players nominated early as well as studs. You never see the nomination process go in lockstep with a redraft type ranking.Also, a lot will depend on the tiering of specific positions. Say the the top RB tier is 5 deep. The last RB in that tier is usually going to be overpriced since they will be a bidding war for that last top tier RB. A lot of times I may really like a player to breakout (say Matt Ryan last year), so I a lot of times nominate him early and try to steal him at a nice discount.But it will really depend on the scoring system between positions. In a league where QBs score 6 points per TD pass or in superflex leagues, QBs are probably going to go for more than usual....especially the elite ones. Since auctions are a zero sum game, if QBs go for more than usual, then other positions will go for less. Last point is that there will be players (usually not elite players, but many times good solid 2nd or 3rd tier players) that will slip through the cracks and not get nominated until much later in the draft, when cap dollars remaining are low. Somebody will get this player at a real big discount and that will not line up with a typical draft slot.So IMO there a lot a variables in play in trying to equate auction values with redraft values.