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Austin Collie (1 Viewer)

The more guys that think/post like Stinkin Ref the happier I am. Keep hatin' boys, keep hatin'. Lower that cost for the rest of us.
Nobody is hatin' Collie - just pointing a legitimate health concern that you seem oblivious to. And I hope you keep hyping him, better price for those of us that would still like to sell him for decent value.
 
it was my understanding Collie had three concussions last year....if the NFL still looked at them like they did in the past..."rub some dirt on it and get back out there" then I wouldn't be as wary of him as I am....it has been proven that you can get them easier once you've had them...
The bolded is false, at least in the way that you are putting it across.If you suffer a concussion, you are more likely to suffer another concussion, IF YOU PUT YOURSELF AT RISK BEFORE YOU HAVE RECOVERED. You ARE NOT more likely to suffer another concussion if you wait until you have fully recovered to resume activity. Studies have suggested that suffering multiple concussions does put an individual at higher risk of brain disease later in life, however.

I guess I would ask this too....pretend you are Austin Collie...and you had three concussions last year....and you know you are now more susceptible to them....and everybody is going to be watching you very closely.....

do you think your game would change, do you think it would be on your mind almost every day, practice, preseason, game day....and do you think you might be a little gun shy hoping to try and avoid that hit that might end your season/career...?

when I answer it honestly...(and I want to think I would be a Gamer)....I would say yes...
Again, since the bolded part of your premise is false, the conclusion that you draw from that premise is inherently false, as well.
 
The difference with collie vs rogers is that collie didn't just get concussions. He was knocked out cold twice. Scary concussions. Does that make it worse in the long run? I dont know, but it scares me and I dont think it should be ignored
It actually is better for a player to be "knocked out cold." A player that is "a little woozy" will be more likely to be able to "hide" his concussion, or come back too soon, thereby putting him at enhanced risk of sustaining another. A player who is "knocked out cold" is not going to be able to "play through it," nor would he be able to hide his symptoms (if he is "knocked out"), therefore he would actually be at less risk than a player who "just" got his "bell rung."
 
it was my understanding Collie had three concussions last year....if the NFL still looked at them like they did in the past..."rub some dirt on it and get back out there" then I wouldn't be as wary of him as I am....it has been proven that you can get them easier once you've had them...
The bolded is false, at least in the way that you are putting it across.If you suffer a concussion, you are more likely to suffer another concussion, IF YOU PUT YOURSELF AT RISK BEFORE YOU HAVE RECOVERED. You ARE NOT more likely to suffer another concussion if you wait until you have fully recovered to resume activity. Studies have suggested that suffering multiple concussions does put an individual at higher risk of brain disease later in life, however.

I guess I would ask this too....pretend you are Austin Collie...and you had three concussions last year....and you know you are now more susceptible to them....and everybody is going to be watching you very closely.....

do you think your game would change, do you think it would be on your mind almost every day, practice, preseason, game day....and do you think you might be a little gun shy hoping to try and avoid that hit that might end your season/career...?

when I answer it honestly...(and I want to think I would be a Gamer)....I would say yes...
Again, since the bolded part of your premise is false, the conclusion that you draw from that premise is inherently false, as well.
granted..I'm no expert so if what you say is true then so be it...which means Collie is no different than any other player in the NFL right now heading into the season...other than he may be at a higher risk for brain disease in the future....so there is no more risk with him than anybody else....hmmmm....ok....wonder if there is any research that suggests it takes longer to recover after concussions if you have a history of concussions....
 
The difference with collie vs rogers is that collie didn't just get concussions. He was knocked out cold twice. Scary concussions. Does that make it worse in the long run? I dont know, but it scares me and I dont think it should be ignored
It actually is better for a player to be "knocked out cold." A player that is "a little woozy" will be more likely to be able to "hide" his concussion, or come back too soon, thereby putting him at enhanced risk of sustaining another. A player who is "knocked out cold" is not going to be able to "play through it," nor would he be able to hide his symptoms (if he is "knocked out"), therefore he would actually be at less risk than a player who "just" got his "bell rung."
I would imagine with the technology today and the emphasis on not returning to early, they may make guys with concussions have brain scans, mri, whatever showing that they are recovered before allowing them to return.....don't think you can really hide it anymore
 
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The more guys that think/post like Stinkin Ref the happier I am. Keep hatin' boys, keep hatin'. Lower that cost for the rest of us.
Nobody is hatin' Collie - just pointing a legitimate health concern that you seem oblivious to. And I hope you keep hyping him, better price for those of us that would still like to sell him for decent value.
Oblivious to the health concern? No, I'm not oblivious. And I also understand that if you want to win, you want difference makers on your team. You don't run from them because there is risk (way overblown by cowards like you IMO). If I can choose between a WR30 who is just a guy with 16 games of WR30 stats, or Collie who is a top-5 or 10 PPR guy when he plays, I'm taking Collie every time. You keep your mediocre guys and your mediocre team, I'll shoot for the top. THAT'S the difference my friend.
 
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The more guys that think/post like Stinkin Ref the happier I am. Keep hatin' boys, keep hatin'. Lower that cost for the rest of us.
Nobody is hatin' Collie - just pointing a legitimate health concern that you seem oblivious to. And I hope you keep hyping him, better price for those of us that would still like to sell him for decent value.
Oblivious to the health concern? No, I'm not oblivious. And I also understand that if you want to win, you want difference makers on your team. You don't run from them because there is risk (way overblown by cowards like you IMO). If I can have a WR30 guy who is just a WR30 guy with 16 games of WR30 stats, or I can have Collie who is a top-10 PPr guy when he plays, I'm taking Collie every time. You keep your mediocre guys and your mediocre team, I'll shoot for the top. THAT's the difference my friend.
who are the only WR's right now you would take before Collie?
 
In PPR dynasty only --

Johnson, Calvin

Johnson, Andre

Fitzgerald, Larry

Nicks, Hakeem

White, Roddy

Jennings, Greg

Bryant, Dez

Wallace, Mike

Green, A.J.

Bowe, Dwayne

Also possibly --

Jackson, Vincent

Austin, Miles

And that means yes I'd own him over

Jackson, DeSean

Maclin, Jeremy

Marshall, Brandon

Williams, Mike

Wayne, Reggie

Rice, Sidney

Jones, Julio

Colston, Marques

Holmes, Santonio

Harvin, Percy

Welker, Wes

Lloyd, Brandon

Britt, Kenny

Crabtree, Michael

Johnson, Steve

etc.

 
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The more guys that think/post like Stinkin Ref the happier I am. Keep hatin' boys, keep hatin'. Lower that cost for the rest of us.
Nobody is hatin' Collie - just pointing a legitimate health concern that you seem oblivious to. And I hope you keep hyping him, better price for those of us that would still like to sell him for decent value.
Oblivious to the health concern? No, I'm not oblivious. And I also understand that if you want to win, you want difference makers on your team. You don't run from them because there is risk (way overblown by cowards like you IMO). If I can choose between a WR30 who is just a guy with 16 games of WR30 stats, or Collie who is a top-5 or 10 PPR guy when he plays, I'm taking Collie every time. You keep your mediocre guys and your mediocre team, I'll shoot for the top. THAT'S the difference my friend.
Collie went 5.07 recently in a ppr/idp dynsary league I'm in. wr that went around the same time as him are sidney rice, reggie wayne, colston, britt (before the last 2 law incidents), crabtree. Would I have taken all of these guy's before collie, probably not, but several of them I would. They are hardly all.mediocre. Some even have better upside than collie. chastising someone for mitigating risk is rediculous. Do you always take the guy with the most upside? I would think you have some.pretty terrible teams (maybe a few great ones too) if you do because that means you dont have much reliability. I dont think anyone is saying you should take a bum of him, but 4th/5th round might be early for someone that, according to some doctors, may be at a considerably higer risk of being one hit away from retirement than the average player. Also, even if healthy, I don't know that it is a slam drunk that he is a top 5 wr...dont get me wrong, I like him, but I like a lot of wr
 
how about redraft.....?
I don't play redraft leagues and haven't done 2011 stat projections yet because the lockout has affected player movement (VJax for example would take a hit if leaving SD for SEA). So, unlike the above list which I keep pretty much up to date, answering a redraft question takes more work than I'm willing to give at this time.In dynasty Wayne and Clark are both getting long in tooth and that's another reason Collie's extended value will remain high.Suffice to say, on a 16 game basis I'd ballpark Collie as a 100-1150-9 guy in 2011. That's 269 FP in PPR, or 16.8 PPG. He was 19.0 PPG in 2010, good for 4th on a PPG basis. The 2011 16.8 PPG projection would have been 8th on a PPG basis in 2010. If he plays fewer than 16 games, so be it. I want that 17-19 PPG come playoff time, and I'm happy to take the risk.Guys who would trade him away for a WR25-30 guy, at 13.0-13.2 PPG, baffle me. They are running away from 4-6 PPG and that's a huge difference in a starting lineup out of just one position. The PPG difference between Santonio Holmes and Michael Jenkins last year was 4.2 PPG for instance.
 
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In PPR dynasty only --Johnson, CalvinJohnson, Andre Fitzgerald, Larry Nicks, HakeemWhite, Roddy Jennings, GregBryant, DezWallace, MikeGreen, A.J.Bowe, DwayneAlso possibly -- Jackson, VincentAustin, MilesAnd that means yes I'd own him over Jackson, DeSeanMaclin, JeremyMarshall, BrandonWilliams, MikeWayne, Reggie Rice, SidneyJones, JulioColston, MarquesHolmes, SantonioHarvin, PercyWelker, Wes Lloyd, Brandon Britt, KennyCrabtree, MichaelJohnson, Steveetc.
Wow you clearly are in love. He could be easily replaced. I dont think he is an elite talent like BRandon Marshall or JulioJ or Crabtree. His situation is nice.
 
People get brainwashed by this concept of "talent." Just WHY would he be easily replaced? Because he's been so productive? Who says Collie lacks talent anyway? Oh yeah, he's not black. I forgot. Anyone care to look up his college stats?

106-1538-14.5-15 as a senior.

I don't and wouldn't own Marshall on any team with all his issues (he was also a 4th rounder by the way) and I believe his best years are now behind him. He's a putz. Crabtree needs to wake up and learn the pro game and not be so lazy or he'll be another nobody. He was outplayed by Josh freakin Morgan. All he showed last year was the diva without the stats or the work ethic. And Julio Jones is a rookie, and many many rookies drafted at his level have flamed out without doing much of anything (not saying he will, but since everyone wants to assert risk...).

And let's look beyond talent. Manning is throwing the ball to Collie. Not Henne, not Alex Smith. That's who Marshall and Crabtree are getting. Fantasy points win games, lest some of you forget. Talent is a nice word but has to be able to translate into something. Yes, I'll take Collie over those guys, definitely.

 
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People get brainwashed by this concept of "talent." Just WHY would he be easily replaced? Because he's been so productive? Who says Collie lacks talent anyway? Oh yeah, he's not black. I forgot. Anyone care to look up his college stats?

106-1538-14.5-15 as a senior.

I don't and wouldn't own Marshall on any team with all his issues (he was also a 4th rounder by the way) and I believe his best years are now behind him. He's a putz. Crabtree needs to wake up and learn the pro game and not be so lazy or he'll be another nobody. He was outplayed by Josh freakin Morgan. All he showed last year was the diva without the stats or the work ethic. And Julio Jones is a rookie, and many many rookies drafted at his level have flamed out without doing much of anything (not saying he will, but since everyone wants to assert risk...).

And let's look beyond talent. Manning is throwing the ball to Collie, not Henne, not Alex Smith. That's who Marshall and Crabtree are getting. Fantasy points win games, lest some of you forget. Talent is a nice word but has to be able to translate into something. Yes, I'll take Collie over those guys, definitely.
Bolded = why he has the great opportunity. Brandon marshall is racking up 100 catch seasons right now. Hes knucklehead I agree, and that goes into the risk.

Will Collie be the long term #1 WR on the colts? Im guessing not. He's a possesion guy. Lots of mouths to feed in Indy and I bet you they add to the arsenal in coming drafts with Wayne/Clark getting up their in age.

Dont be so defensive.

2nd bolded point I really agree with, I play to win regardless of format and I think you are overvaluing Collie for dynasty specifically

BTW Im not making this a black/white thing.

 
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Anyone care to look up his college stats?106-1538-14.5-15 as a senior.I don't and wouldn't own Marshall on any team with all his issues (he was also a 4th rounder by the way) and I believe his best years are now behind him. He's a putz. Crabtree needs to wake up and learn the pro game and not be so lazy or he'll be another nobody. He was outplayed by Josh freakin Morgan. All he showed last year was the diva without the stats or the work ethic. And Julio Jones is a rookie, and many many rookies drafted at his level have flamed out without doing much of anything (not saying he will, but since everyone wants to assert risk...).And let's look beyond talent. Manning is throwing the ball to Collie. Not Henne, not Alex Smith. That's who Marshall and Crabtree are getting. Fantasy points win games, lest some of you forget. Talent is a nice word but has to be able to translate into something. Yes, I'll take Collie over those guys, definitely.
I don't disagree with you butI assume by "outplayed" you mean less receptions for less yards and less TDs. College stats mean nothing. 2009 leader in receptions and TDs wasn't drafted by the NFL and is currently buried on the Bears' practice squad.Current QB means almost nothing. Henne might not be the starter in July, let alone 2 or 3 years down the line.
 
how about redraft.....?
Even more value in redraft. Don't have to be concerned with residual effect and long term implications in that format. If you remove his FF total from the Eagles game (in which he was knocked out in the 2nd quarter), Collie averaged 21.25 points in PPR. Nearly two points higher than the 2nd place finisher. If one is looking to define upside in fantasy football, Austin Collie is terrific place to start.
 
I would imagine with the technology today and the emphasis on not returning to early, they may make guys with concussions have brain scans, mri, whatever showing that they are recovered before allowing them to return.....don't think you can really hide it anymore
This is true, IF the concussion is diagnosed. Say that a player takes a big hit, but gets back up, goes to the huddle, and lines up for the next play. It's possible that he suffered a concussion, but isn't exhibiting the most obvious symptoms (loss of consciousness, vomiting, etc). If the player doesn't report that he doesn't "feel right," then he might continue to play with the concussion, thus rendering him more vulnerable to a subsequent concussion. If a player is knocked out, he will not be allowed to return to practice/play until he has been cleared.
 
I just read Teffertiller's "Severe Weather Ahead" choices....I am puzzled by the Garcon selection. The argument (in an oversimplified form) goes something like that:

Premises:

Garcon is a poor receiver because he drops a lot of passes.

Collie and Dallas Clark are now healthy.

Garcon was underwhelming when Collie played.

The Colts might take an FA WR. (?)

Conclusions:

Garcon won't see 8.4 targets per game and, hence, won't be an FF starter for you.

Sell Garcon as quickly as you can.

I've been buying Garcon wherever I can find an owner low on him, so naturally I am biased the other way. I don't see Garcon as a poor receiver at all. He makes unbelievable catches. In the playoffs, he was the only Colts player to elevate his game. Sure, Garcon's concentration lapses are well documented. Yet the catch % went up from 50% to 56% in practically his second season. That's surely the pattern I like to see with a young player. Playing with Manning will only further improve his concentration. Overall, I only see reasons to buy in dynasty, not sell.

Then, there is the prediction that Garcon won't see enough targets for fantasy relevance. Here is a comparison in targets between Collie and Garcon when both played and when Collie didn't get hurt. Care to guess which is which?

12-10

4-2

6-14

9-7

6-10

10-6

What about Dallas Clark? Well, in the four games that Clark, Collie and Garcon played together, Clark has 22% of the targets, Collie - 18%, Garcon - 19%. Significant?

I don't expect Garcon to see 8.5 targets / game, but 7 to 7.5 seems perfectly reasonable in that offense. Factor in Garcon's age, the fact that both Wayne and Clark are showing signs of slowdown, Collie's high risk, and you can see why I think Garcon might be the best dynasty asset among all those. 70/950/8.

 
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the problem with guys like austin collie is that once everyone starts calling him the best sleeper pick of this year, he is no longer a sleeper.

Some people earlier in this thread said Collie was going in the 4th round. that is hardly a sleeper and not even great value (in my opinion). A sleeper is only a sleeper until all of these fantasy football websites hype them up to the point they are over-drafted.

 
Don't know if anyone else noticed this in the FBG email this morning. http://subscribers.footballguys.com/apps/faceoff.php?yr=2011&id=Avoid000

Jeff Pasquino: At ALL costs? Most players that I don't consider are based on ADP decisions. The only reason I would scratch a player completely off of my list is because of injury or injury potential. For me the only player I see that I wouldn't be drafting right now for both reasons is Austin Collie. He is just going too soon for my taste as usually some owner takes him in the Top 24 WRs off of the board. While some are looking at the glass half full and seeing his numbers on a per-game basis from last year (they were fantastic), I cannot see a repeat performance of that again in 2011. The fear factor for me is that one more hit on him at the wrong angle might end his career. I would consider him as a moderate WR3, but I expect most will take him way earlier than that.
 
To me, after the top 10 WRs or so, you need to look at the possible ceiling/floors for these players. Collie has one of the highest ceilings of the group of WRs around him in ADP - that makes him undervalued to me. The concussion issues are way overblown. It's a part of the game and could happen to anyone on the field. Would you rather have a WR whose upside is top-20, that hasn't had a concussion (that we know of) in their career OR a guy that has top-5 potential that can carry you to a championship - but was one of many players in the NFL that had a concussion in 2010? The more people that choose the first player just means I will get Collie on more teams this year, so I retract all my arguments for Collie...please, keep passing on Collie.

 
I'm a collie fan but you cant ignore that another concussion has a good chance of ending his career, and no matter how healthy he is right now having more concussionsmakes you more prone to getting more concussions. Playing on the slot and bring an over the middle kind of guy makes it even more likely. I how he stays healthy and I have him in one league and I'm not selling him, but I'm not paying alot for him either.
I just traded for Collie and I too am concerned about the concussions, but doesn't Aaron Rodgers have the same risk? He had two devastating concussions last season too. I don't see anyone dropping Rodgers in the rankings.
 
I'm a collie fan but you cant ignore that another concussion has a good chance of ending his career, and no matter how healthy he is right now having more concussionsmakes you more prone to getting more concussions. Playing on the slot and bring an over the middle kind of guy makes it even more likely. I how he stays healthy and I have him in one league and I'm not selling him, but I'm not paying alot for him either.
I just traded for Collie and I too am concerned about the concussions, but doesn't Aaron Rodgers have the same risk? He had two devastating concussions last season too. I don't see anyone dropping Rodgers in the rankings.
Was Aaron Rodgers knocked cold and then lay unconscious and unmoving on the ground for several minutes? IIRC none of the concussions Rodgers suffered were as severe as Collie's first concussion. Also, how many games did he miss compared to the number of games Collie was forced to sit out by the team doctors? The Colts medical staff appeared more concerned with Collie's concussions than Green Bay's did with Rodgers. Perhaps Rodgers concussions were just as bad, but the actions by the respective team's doctors would seem to indicate that was not the case (which, admittedly, does not prove the actual severity of the injuries to both players, but suggests that Collie's concussions were a lot worse).
 
Rodgers never lost consciousness, he had minor concussions.

Collie was KTFO and looked dead with no movement laying on the ground.

Apples and Oranges.

 
I'm a collie fan but you cant ignore that another concussion has a good chance of ending his career, and no matter how healthy he is right now having more concussionsmakes you more prone to getting more concussions. Playing on the slot and bring an over the middle kind of guy makes it even more likely. I how he stays healthy and I have him in one league and I'm not selling him, but I'm not paying alot for him either.
I just traded for Collie and I too am concerned about the concussions, but doesn't Aaron Rodgers have the same risk? He had two devastating concussions last season too. I don't see anyone dropping Rodgers in the rankings.
Was Aaron Rodgers knocked cold and then lay unconscious and unmoving on the ground for several minutes? IIRC none of the concussions Rodgers suffered were as severe as Collie's first concussion. Also, how many games did he miss compared to the number of games Collie was forced to sit out by the team doctors? The Colts medical staff appeared more concerned with Collie's concussions than Green Bay's did with Rodgers. Perhaps Rodgers concussions were just as bad, but the actions by the respective team's doctors would seem to indicate that was not the case (which, admittedly, does not prove the actual severity of the injuries to both players, but suggests that Collie's concussions were a lot worse).
This is the exact response I hoped to get. You are right, there are different severity levels of concussions obviously.....and Collie had it WAY worse than Rodgers, but it's a fair discussion point. There are inherent risks with both Collie and Rodgers. I think both the risks are well worth the reward. Both play positions that can easily be concussed and Rodgers is just as likely to sustain another concussion as Collie is. Collie is a better value in drafts, easily. Collie in the 5th round, Rodgers in the late 1st/early 2nd. Collie is easily the better value......Which is the point of this entire thread. Collie is underrated.
 
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I'm a collie fan but you cant ignore that another concussion has a good chance of ending his career, and no matter how healthy he is right now having more concussionsmakes you more prone to getting more concussions. Playing on the slot and bring an over the middle kind of guy makes it even more likely.

I how he stays healthy and I have him in one league and I'm not selling him, but I'm not paying alot for him either.
I just traded for Collie and I too am concerned about the concussions, but doesn't Aaron Rodgers have the same risk? He had two devastating concussions last season too. I don't see anyone dropping Rodgers in the rankings.
Was Aaron Rodgers knocked cold and then lay unconscious and unmoving on the ground for several minutes? IIRC none of the concussions Rodgers suffered were as severe as Collie's first concussion. Also, how many games did he miss compared to the number of games Collie was forced to sit out by the team doctors? The Colts medical staff appeared more concerned with Collie's concussions than Green Bay's did with Rodgers. Perhaps Rodgers concussions were just as bad, but the actions by the respective team's doctors would seem to indicate that was not the case (which, admittedly, does not prove the actual severity of the injuries to both players, but suggests that Collie's concussions were a lot worse).
This is the exact response I hoped to get. You are right, there are different severity levels of concussions obviously.....and Collie had it WAY worse than Rodgers, but it's a fair discussion point. There are inherent risks with both Collie and Rodgers. I think both the risks are well worth the reward. Both play positions that can easily be concussed and Rodgers is just as likely to sustain another concussion as Collie is. Collie is a better value in drafts, easily. Collie in the 5th round, Rodgers in the late 1st/early 2nd. Collie is easily the better value......Which is the point of this entire thread. Collie is underrated.
Collie isn't better value....if Rodgers value is round 1/2 then that is what his value is....if Collie's is round 5/6 then that is what his is......now, if you want to say they both have a history of concussions and it would suck to lose your 1st or 2nd round pick more than it would to lose your 5th or 6th round pick, then just say that.....

but the concussion part of it doesn't make Collie better value....he might be less RISK to your fantasy team because maybe you could recover from losing your 5th or 6th round pick easier than your 1st or 2nd....

risk/value are not the same....

 
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I'm a collie fan but you cant ignore that another concussion has a good chance of ending his career, and no matter how healthy he is right now having more concussionsmakes you more prone to getting more concussions. Playing on the slot and bring an over the middle kind of guy makes it even more likely.

I how he stays healthy and I have him in one league and I'm not selling him, but I'm not paying alot for him either.
I just traded for Collie and I too am concerned about the concussions, but doesn't Aaron Rodgers have the same risk? He had two devastating concussions last season too. I don't see anyone dropping Rodgers in the rankings.
Was Aaron Rodgers knocked cold and then lay unconscious and unmoving on the ground for several minutes? IIRC none of the concussions Rodgers suffered were as severe as Collie's first concussion. Also, how many games did he miss compared to the number of games Collie was forced to sit out by the team doctors? The Colts medical staff appeared more concerned with Collie's concussions than Green Bay's did with Rodgers. Perhaps Rodgers concussions were just as bad, but the actions by the respective team's doctors would seem to indicate that was not the case (which, admittedly, does not prove the actual severity of the injuries to both players, but suggests that Collie's concussions were a lot worse).
This is the exact response I hoped to get. You are right, there are different severity levels of concussions obviously.....and Collie had it WAY worse than Rodgers, but it's a fair discussion point. There are inherent risks with both Collie and Rodgers. I think both the risks are well worth the reward. Both play positions that can easily be concussed and Rodgers is just as likely to sustain another concussion as Collie is. Collie is a better value in drafts, easily. Collie in the 5th round, Rodgers in the late 1st/early 2nd. Collie is easily the better value......Which is the point of this entire thread. Collie is underrated.
Collie isn't better value....if Rodgers value is round 1/2 then that is what his value is....if Collie's is round 5/6 then that is what his is......now, if you want to say they both have a history of concussions and it would suck to lose your 1st or 2nd round pick more than it would to lose your 5th or 6th round pick, then just say that.....

but the concussion part of it doesn't make Collie better value....he might be less RISK to your fantasy team because maybe you could recover from losing your 5th or 6th round pick easier than your 1st or 2nd....

risk/value are not the same....
I'm confused on why you are getting hung up on the meaning of a word. If you draft Rodgers in the 1st round, you expect him to be a top 3 fantasy QB.....that is not a "VALUE". If you draft Collie in the 5th round and he produces like a #1 WR (ie WR's you'd draft in the late 1st/early 2nd), then Collie is a "VALUE" pick. I'm not talking about market value which you are. I am talking about a bargain value......Rodgers isn't a bargain in the 1st round.Seems to me you are one of those people that choses to argue over literal meaning of words rather than the actual content in a person's post. I don't have much time to address your analness with the English language.

 
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Collie isn't better value....if Rodgers value is round 1/2 then that is what his value is....if Collie's is round 5/6 then that is what his is......now, if you want to say they both have a history of concussions and it would suck to lose your 1st or 2nd round pick more than it would to lose your 5th or 6th round pick, then just say that.....but the concussion part of it doesn't make Collie better value....he might be less RISK to your fantasy team because maybe you could recover from losing your 5th or 6th round pick easier than your 1st or 2nd....risk/value are not the same....
I'm confused on why you are getting hung up on the meaning of a word. If you draft Rodgers in the 1st round, you expect him to be a top 3 fantasy QB.....that is not a "VALUE". If you draft Collie in the 5th round and he produces like a #1 WR (ie WR's you'd draft in the late 1st/early 2nd), then Collie is a "VALUE" pick. I'm not talking about market value which you are. I am talking about a bargain value......Rodgers isn't a bargain in the 1st round.Seems to me you are one of those people that choses to argue over literal meaning of words rather than the actual content in a person's post. I don't have much time to address your analness with the English language.
Actually Ref's example is spot on and I think the argument is sound. If you draft Rodgers in the 1st round, then you expect his value to be Top 3. That's his value. Even more importantly, you are banking on consistency in that 1st/2nd rd draft pick. On the other hand, if Collie is going in the 5th/6th round, that's where he is expected to produce for the year. Your argument is based on the premise and liklihood that Collie becomes Top 5 at year end. If you draft him in the 5th and he produces that way, then you stole the bank. However, the liklihood of that is slim or he would have been drafted earlier. He may have a game or two that are outstanding, but the liklihood of consistency in the mid-round draft picks isn't here.I'm confused as to why you relate it to a bargain value. The logic doesn't work for me. Any guy you pay 1-3 round price on isn't really a value, as you pointed out. By the same premise if you draft a mid-round guy and then DON'T live up to the projections, then you overpaid. There's no value. Collie is in a good situation with Manning and a pass-happy offense, but he is fighting for touches with Wayne/Clark/Garcon/White and everyone else. Based on the definition of bargain value, I could argue that anyone I draft after the 4th round is a bargain.I just think Ref's example that it is easier to recover from a bad pick in the mid-rounds vs a bad pick in the first couple rounds is entirely correct. The real question is, do you think Collie will outperform being drafted in round 5? If the answer is yes, then he's underrated and a value. If the answer is no, then his value is 5th round. If he doesn't perform to that, he's overrated.IMO, I think he was fantastic last year. Do I think he can do that all year, probably not. My bet he ends up being a WR2 in the mid range and his draft value at rd 5 is probably about right. I just don't see him putting up better numbers than the receivers going in rds 1-3.My 2 cents...
 
I'm a collie fan but you cant ignore that another concussion has a good chance of ending his career, and no matter how healthy he is right now having more concussionsmakes you more prone to getting more concussions. Playing on the slot and bring an over the middle kind of guy makes it even more likely.

I how he stays healthy and I have him in one league and I'm not selling him, but I'm not paying alot for him either.
I just traded for Collie and I too am concerned about the concussions, but doesn't Aaron Rodgers have the same risk? He had two devastating concussions last season too. I don't see anyone dropping Rodgers in the rankings.
Was Aaron Rodgers knocked cold and then lay unconscious and unmoving on the ground for several minutes? IIRC none of the concussions Rodgers suffered were as severe as Collie's first concussion. Also, how many games did he miss compared to the number of games Collie was forced to sit out by the team doctors? The Colts medical staff appeared more concerned with Collie's concussions than Green Bay's did with Rodgers. Perhaps Rodgers concussions were just as bad, but the actions by the respective team's doctors would seem to indicate that was not the case (which, admittedly, does not prove the actual severity of the injuries to both players, but suggests that Collie's concussions were a lot worse).
This is the exact response I hoped to get. You are right, there are different severity levels of concussions obviously.....and Collie had it WAY worse than Rodgers, but it's a fair discussion point. There are inherent risks with both Collie and Rodgers. I think both the risks are well worth the reward. Both play positions that can easily be concussed and Rodgers is just as likely to sustain another concussion as Collie is. Collie is a better value in drafts, easily. Collie in the 5th round, Rodgers in the late 1st/early 2nd. Collie is easily the better value......Which is the point of this entire thread. Collie is underrated.
Collie isn't better value....if Rodgers value is round 1/2 then that is what his value is....if Collie's is round 5/6 then that is what his is......now, if you want to say they both have a history of concussions and it would suck to lose your 1st or 2nd round pick more than it would to lose your 5th or 6th round pick, then just say that.....

but the concussion part of it doesn't make Collie better value....he might be less RISK to your fantasy team because maybe you could recover from losing your 5th or 6th round pick easier than your 1st or 2nd....

risk/value are not the same....
I'm confused on why you are getting hung up on the meaning of a word. If you draft Rodgers in the 1st round, you expect him to be a top 3 fantasy QB.....that is not a "VALUE". If you draft Collie in the 5th round and he produces like a #1 WR (ie WR's you'd draft in the late 1st/early 2nd), then Collie is a "VALUE" pick. I'm not talking about market value which you are. I am talking about a bargain value......Rodgers isn't a bargain in the 1st round.Seems to me you are one of those people that choses to argue over literal meaning of words rather than the actual content in a person's post. I don't have much time to address your analness with the English language.
I was just addressing the comment you threw out there that "Collie is easily the better value"have no idea outside of VBD....what market value vs. bargain value is in fantasy football...?...so if I was talking market value, I didn't even know it...outside of VBD I'm not sure what else there is or what you're talking about fantasy wise....

Are you saying that Rodgers can't represent value in the 1st round? Cause if you are the thread about "sleepers" or "what players will outperform their ADP" is somewhere else....Rodgers could end up being value in the 1st depending on how he performs compared to other QB's and all other players....

I get that if you get WR1 play out of a guy drafted in the 5th round you are getting a "bargain".....but Rodgers could also be a bargain in the first in terms of the impact on your fantasy team depending on how he performs.......does he barely outscore the QB's taken much later or does he dominate them....it's not just about finishing top 3 or whatever, it's also about how far away did you seperate yourself from those 4-12.....

 
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The risk I see here is that you may be perceiving value by ignoring the very thing that is driving his discounted price. Lot's of guys have value if you do that.

Someone mentioned Rodgers and staying away based on past concussions. Interesting idea except the "harm" they are exposed to is completely different.

 
The risk I see here is that you may be perceiving value by ignoring the very thing that is driving his discounted price. Lot's of guys have value if you do that.
But do lots of guys have the potential ceiling in terms of stellar production Collie presents?
 
The risk I see here is that you may be perceiving value by ignoring the very thing that is driving his discounted price. Lot's of guys have value if you do that.
But do lots of guys have the potential ceiling in terms of stellar production Collie presents?
Ceiling wise, no. Certainly not "lots" anyway.Whether backed up by medical fact or not, my perception is that Collie may well be solid on a ppg basis but if and when he "gets rocked" again (a significant occupational hazard in his position), he's going to be out a long time. I don't think concussions have a comparable. It's not like a productive RB blowing out a knee and being done for the season. It's not like questions as to whether Welker could come back last year and "be Welker" (at least in my mind it isn't). He's a bit like a great boxer with a bad chin in my mind. I'll draft him if he's around later but I doubt he is.
 
Ref you seem totally lost on the definition of value here...

The other guy is saying Collie is a better value because the market is undervaluing him. He's a 3rd round value player, and the market is undervaluing that because of his past concussions. Now, if you want to say that the risk actually does push his value down that low, then that's your opinion, and he's being valued where he should be.

I'm of the opinion that in a REDRAFT league, the market is overestimating the injury risk. Concussions are fluky. Even if I get 20 ppg out of him (his avg last year in my league, the 3rd best at WR) for only 6 games, and 2 points for the 7th in which he gets a concussion and never plays again...wouldn't you rather have those 6 games, suffer a stinker, and use a bench/ww guy to replace him? Especially when the other guys you can draft are probably producing in the 11-13ppg range...even if your 8th round receiver or surprise WW play is only giving you 9 ppg, the Collie + worse receiver is a better combo than the decent guy all year.

Like Andre Johnson last year. I would rather have had him all year, at his PPG with a replacement when he was declared out before the game, than a guy like Fitz or Miles Austin who was good all year, but not a 20 ppg guy like AJ was.

So, in my opinion, the market (ADP) is undervaluing Collie. That makes him a value play.

Rodgers, in the first round, is being valued by the market in the right place, in my opinion. He's the #1 QB, but I would be just as happy with Peyton, Brady, Rivers, Brees, and a 1st round RB or WR as I would be with Rodgers and a 2nd round RB or WR. Because of that, I think that Rodgers is NOT a value pick. He's a solid pick, and he's not bad value, but the market values him correctly.

Think about it like a stock. Collie's price is $2/share, even though he's worth $5/share - let's say this is because a legal case which the company Collie, Inc has could devastate the company. In every other way, however, they're a stronger stock. On top of that, the case is unlikely to go against them...but there is that possibility.

Rodgers Ltd is a stock worth $10/share. The market values him at $9.90 (I think his ADP is actually like 2-4 spots too low, pending league scoring). Therefore, Collie Inc has a much better chance of being a huge homerun for you. Rodgers Ltd is much safer, but you're probably just going to see normal growth with the market, and you'll make some money, but nothing special.

(That's my first stocks analogy and I've only had the most basic course in that major so far, so sorry if it isn't the greatest :thumbup: )

ETA: I made REDRAFT all caps because I would waaayyyyyyyy rather have Rodgers in dynasty. (At each of their respective ADPs)

 
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Ref you seem totally lost on the definition of value here...The other guy is saying Collie is a better value because the market is undervaluing him. He's a 3rd round value player, and the market is undervaluing that because of his past concussions. Now, if you want to say that the risk actually does push his value down that low, then that's your opinion, and he's being valued where he should be.I'm of the opinion that in a REDRAFT league, the market is overestimating the injury risk. Concussions are fluky. Even if I get 20 ppg out of him (his avg last year in my league, the 3rd best at WR) for only 6 games, and 2 points for the 7th in which he gets a concussion and never plays again...wouldn't you rather have those 6 games, suffer a stinker, and use a bench/ww guy to replace him? Especially when the other guys you can draft are probably producing in the 11-13ppg range...even if your 8th round receiver or surprise WW play is only giving you 9 ppg, the Collie + worse receiver is a better combo than the decent guy all year.Like Andre Johnson last year. I would rather have had him all year, at his PPG with a replacement when he was declared out before the game, than a guy like Fitz or Miles Austin who was good all year, but not a 20 ppg guy like AJ was.So, in my opinion, the market (ADP) is undervaluing Collie. That makes him a value play.Rodgers, in the first round, is being valued by the market in the right place, in my opinion. He's the #1 QB, but I would be just as happy with Peyton, Brady, Rivers, Brees, and a 1st round RB or WR as I would be with Rodgers and a 2nd round RB or WR. Because of that, I think that Rodgers is NOT a value pick. He's a solid pick, and he's not bad value, but the market values him correctly.Think about it like a stock. Collie's price is $2/share, even though he's worth $5/share - let's say this is because a legal case which the company Collie, Inc has could devastate the company. In every other way, however, they're a stronger stock. On top of that, the case is unlikely to go against them...but there is that possibility.Rodgers Ltd is a stock worth $10/share. The market values him at $9.90 (I think his ADP is actually like 2-4 spots too low, pending league scoring). Therefore, Collie Inc has a much better chance of being a huge homerun for you. Rodgers Ltd is much safer, but you're probably just going to see normal growth with the market, and you'll make some money, but nothing special.(That's my first stocks analogy and I've only had the most basic course in that major so far, so sorry if it isn't the greatest :thumbup: )ETA: I made REDRAFT all caps because I would waaayyyyyyyy rather have Rodgers in dynasty. (At each of their respective ADPs)
Thanks for trying to explain it to Ref, Instinctive. You are far more patient than I am with this. I still don't think ref will get it.
 
Thanks for trying to explain it to Ref, Instinctive. You are far more patient than I am with this. I still don't think ref will get it.
I was trying to explain it as much for myself. That's the best part of the Shark Pool - I get a better handle on my own opinions by trying to share them with others. When I have to verbalize them and do some research, I often find my gut instinct is even more right than I thought, or, about as often, that I am way undervaluing a certain player for some reason or other.Personally, i think that whoever ref is, he/she probably gets the concept and is just being obstinate. But I've been wrong before (once or twice ;) )ETA: Ref - you gotta learn a little bit of writing style. Less use of ellipses dude. use hyphens, colons, semicolons...it's really visually distracting to the human eye when you use any one type of punctuation like that: it takes away from what you're actually saying by drawing the eye over the words and to just the punctuation.
 
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As far as dynasty leagues, Collie may be $2/share but he's never going to be worth more than $3/share. The risk will always be there, just like Colston, even if he makes it through multiple years in tact. However, the dividend payout could be huge. He could just continue to turn profit year after year even though his value doesn't grow.

If we assume he is a top 10 WR in PPG going forward, what % of games does he have to play over the next two years to be valued as such? I think even if he plays 100% he won't be.

 
Ref you seem totally lost on the definition of value here...

The other guy is saying Collie is a better value because the market is undervaluing him. He's a 3rd round value player, and the market is undervaluing that because of his past concussions. Now, if you want to say that the risk actually does push his value down that low, then that's your opinion, and he's being valued where he should be.

I'm of the opinion that in a REDRAFT league, the market is overestimating the injury risk. Concussions are fluky. Even if I get 20 ppg out of him (his avg last year in my league, the 3rd best at WR) for only 6 games, and 2 points for the 7th in which he gets a concussion and never plays again...wouldn't you rather have those 6 games, suffer a stinker, and use a bench/ww guy to replace him? Especially when the other guys you can draft are probably producing in the 11-13ppg range...even if your 8th round receiver or surprise WW play is only giving you 9 ppg, the Collie + worse receiver is a better combo than the decent guy all year.

Like Andre Johnson last year. I would rather have had him all year, at his PPG with a replacement when he was declared out before the game, than a guy like Fitz or Miles Austin who was good all year, but not a 20 ppg guy like AJ was.

So, in my opinion, the market (ADP) is undervaluing Collie. That makes him a value play.

Rodgers, in the first round, is being valued by the market in the right place, in my opinion. He's the #1 QB, but I would be just as happy with Peyton, Brady, Rivers, Brees, and a 1st round RB or WR as I would be with Rodgers and a 2nd round RB or WR. Because of that, I think that Rodgers is NOT a value pick. He's a solid pick, and he's not bad value, but the market values him correctly.

Think about it like a stock. Collie's price is $2/share, even though he's worth $5/share - let's say this is because a legal case which the company Collie, Inc has could devastate the company. In every other way, however, they're a stronger stock. On top of that, the case is unlikely to go against them...but there is that possibility.

Rodgers Ltd is a stock worth $10/share. The market values him at $9.90 (I think his ADP is actually like 2-4 spots too low, pending league scoring). Therefore, Collie Inc has a much better chance of being a huge homerun for you. Rodgers Ltd is much safer, but you're probably just going to see normal growth with the market, and you'll make some money, but nothing special.

(That's my first stocks analogy and I've only had the most basic course in that major so far, so sorry if it isn't the greatest :thumbup: )

ETA: I made REDRAFT all caps because I would waaayyyyyyyy rather have Rodgers in dynasty. (At each of their respective ADPs)
Thanks for trying to explain it to Ref, Instinctive. You are far more patient than I am with this. I still don't think ref will get it.
bingo...cause that is what is happening (currently, that may change)....in fact if the stats he put up pre injury are part of the reason we are thinking he is a value play, he was actually not a third round value player, he was possibly bottom 1st round/top second round value player (top 3 WR)...could he outproduce his current ADP....sure he could, but he could also not even come close to it.....if risk is not part of how some people value players then he sure as heck is a value play cause he should be drated in the second round if all we are doing is basing it on what he did when healthy...people seem to assess concussions a little differently then blowing an ankle or somthing....but I think it is a little early/crazy to say that Collie is easily a value play over other players....I won't be touching him for a variety of reasons, but mostly because I think his type of injury (even though he is not technically injured anymore) will be something that changes the way he plays and will always be on his mind....if he uses the wrong technique blocking in training camp, let alone taking hits, etc....he is just one ding away from a vacation and personally I think the chances of seeing a regression in his stats are higher than him approaching the level he was at prior to his concussions...which might have him overvalued at this point.... ;) ...sorry about the writing style
 
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'thriftyrocker said:
As far as dynasty leagues, Collie may be $2/share but he's never going to be worth more than $3/share. The risk will always be there, just like Colston, even if he makes it through multiple years in tact. However, the dividend payout could be huge. He could just continue to turn profit year after year even though his value doesn't grow.If we assume he is a top 10 WR in PPG going forward, what % of games does he have to play over the next two years to be valued as such? I think even if he plays 100% he won't be.
Dont know about that. People forget about injury and off field trouble pretty quickly. I think if he makes it through half a season without issue and performs well, his value will skyrocket. Colston has surgery every year. As soon as people start to forget, he reminds them.
 
i still think they should move him outside so he can avoid those huge hits over the middle. Hes far better than Garcon inside or outside.

 

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