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Baseball Playoff Wagering (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Green94
- Start date
MarshallPlan
Footballguy
Thank you sir. Not sure how anyone cannot play the Tribe at the prices I was seeing a few hrs ago. Why wait for Sabathia/Carmona when we got +210 tonight?Who would you rather have:Your Mother said:
Byrd +210 OR
Sabathia/Carmona +105
No brainer to me, both are great, but Byrd is a lot better. Sorry I was out at the bar tonight with some Yanks fan, it was nice seeing them lose.
Your Mother
Footballguy
I was touting the same play via email with buddies today. One guy argued that Byrd would be lucky to get out of the fifth with less than 5 ER (he was), but my characterization that it would be "messy on both sides", was, I think, fairly accurate. Don't see a big enough edge on either side of the ball to justify staying away from this.Generally speaking, +200 seems to be solid money unless you're running into a stud pitcher. One theory that I thought of today is that with two sinkerballers on the staff (Carmona and Westbrook), the Indians might have had some additional insight into Wang.Thank you sir. Not sure how anyone cannot play the Tribe at the prices I was seeing a few hrs ago. Why wait for Sabathia/Carmona when we got +210 tonight?Who would you rather have:Your Mother said:
Byrd +210 OR
Sabathia/Carmona +105
No brainer to me, both are great, but Byrd is a lot better. Sorry I was out at the bar tonight with some Yanks fan, it was nice seeing them lose.
Leroy Hoard
Footballguy
Awesome, I wish I would have done the same. They obviously presented the most value in round 1.
Angry Beavers
Footballguy
Congrats to all the tribe backers!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Any prices up yet on Bos/Cle? If Cle is a big dog they may be worth backing again!
Any prices up yet on Bos/Cle? If Cle is a big dog they may be worth backing again!
Leroy Hoard
Footballguy
Yes, and they were able to save C.C. for game 1.Pinny has this listed, I'll have to check with my local what he has:Cleveland Indians vs Boston Red Sox 989 Indians +152 990 Red Sox -162
RoarinSonoran
Footballguy
Dog System sez CLE/BOS u8.5 is a play. 
The script still works, but you'll have to look a little closer at the results. Streaks are based on the end-of-season standings, so AZ could be missed as a pick due to COL having a "streak". Likewise, AZ, COL, and BOS are currently riding streaks, but they're not being reported properly. Caveat emptor.
The script still works, but you'll have to look a little closer at the results. Streaks are based on the end-of-season standings, so AZ could be missed as a pick due to COL having a "streak". Likewise, AZ, COL, and BOS are currently riding streaks, but they're not being reported properly. Caveat emptor.
Sonny Lubick Blowup Doll
Footballguy
What are you seeing for series prices, folks?
MarshallPlan
Footballguy
DBacks +121 Indians +155Value on both dogs, especially the DBacks. How this team is a dog again this series is beyond me. Indians may present better value game by game.
![[icon]](/data/avatars/m/5/5167.jpg?1660313464){kind=avatar}
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Insoxicated
Very good value on CLE right now at around +150... I might bite on this just to buy me a keg of Sam Adams to drown myself in if the Sox lose to CLE.
I think the Boston fanbase is bidding this way up and a more realistic number is BOS (+100) / CLE (+110) if they offered 10 cent lines.
I think the Boston fanbase is bidding this way up and a more realistic number is BOS (+100) / CLE (+110) if they offered 10 cent lines.
MarshallPlan
Footballguy
Far from it. Boston with home field is worth 20-25 cents. Even if these two teams are dead EVEN, Boston must be lined -120.
Sonny Lubick Blowup Doll
Footballguy
Cleveland for me. And yeah the Rockies are higher than they should be but not enough to scare me. That team is going to the World Series.
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Insoxicated
One extra game at home (with cle getting 3 of the first 5 at their place) is worth 20-25% odds?! Most series don't go 7 games so you gotta look at it this way:4 games - Even5 games - CLE advantage6 games - EvenThe only time boston has an advantage is if it goes to the 7th game.... I realize it's an edge but I'd debate your call on 20-25% just on HFA alone.
MarshallPlan
Footballguy
But some series do indeed go 7 games, we can't just assume it's unlikely to go 7 games. Even if we have dead even teams, we have to make Boston the favorite just to to the fact that they may play 4 home games to Cleveland's 3. Not to be a stickler, but with 10 cent lines we can't line Boston +100 and Cleveland +110. This has been debated before with NBA basketball, so I will try to find the info. I just think we need to make Boston at least -120 (20 cents for home field) in this series even if both teams are even. I actually think this Boston price will be way too low. Gm 1 (CC vs Beckett) +144Game 2 +144 - about the same with Carmona vs Dice KGame 3 - Schilling vs Westbrook. I say it's even. Game 4 Lester/Wakefield vs Byrd. Even.Game 5 - CC vs Beckett. CC -110Game 6 - same as game 2Game 7 - Schilling vs Westbrook. Clev +140I don't see Cleveland really being a big favorite in any game in this series and I see them being a dog in many games. I think betting the Indians game by game would be a better idea.
Tremendous Upside
Footballguy
Matsuzaka has had like 2 good outings in 2 months...Carmona is filthy...MarshallPlan
Footballguy
Carmona was +117 at home vs Pettite. That's about +160 at NY. I'd drop it 20 cents or so and make Carmona +145 or +140 here depending on what goes on in game 1.
Bill Brasky
Footballguy
I'm pretty sure I heard it reported that Dice K will be pitching game 3 and Schilling will get game 2Edit to add: Found a Link
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Tremendous Upside
Footballguy
That's right...I knew that...I'm pretty sure I heard it reported that Dice K will be pitching game 3 and Schilling will get game 2Edit to add: Found a Link
Don't sleep on Carmona people...
He's the real deal...
Leroy Hoard
Footballguy
I have a lot more respect for the Sox pitching than the Yank's, so I might just sit this series out.
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Insoxicated
Apparently the POINT of my post has completely eluded you I'm not trying to predict the lines. I'm trying to say what they SHOULD be if there wasn't a MASSIVE boston favoritism pushing them out of wack. I don't care what the line was in NYY/CLE. That has ZERO bearing on my arguement because I'm not trying to predict what the lines will be.. I agre they'll be big in boston's favor. I just think you've failed to watch a lot of games this year if you're giving Boston +145 in a series where they face CC and Carmona 2s eaach. I have $50 on Cleveland at around those odds and frankly I think it's a very good bet. And do the other point... MP.. how many 7 game series in the last 20 years of MLB have gone 7 games. I'd wager less than 10%...
MarshallPlan
Footballguy
Great bet. Price may drop today on the DBacks like it did in game 1 of the Chicago series with Webb and Zambrano on the hill. I played Webb -108 and -111 that game, I don't expect to see those kind of numbers tonight, but -115 wouldn't surprise me.Dbacks for the series +120
As if he would go any other wayGreat bet.Dbacks for the series +120
GL Pro - I might play Webb tonight.
Angry Beavers
Footballguy
1 unit on over 7.5 -105
i wonder how sharp Webb will be coming off of long rest???
i wonder how sharp Webb will be coming off of long rest???
RedRaiders
Mr. +EV
I've seen Arizona trickle up today a couple cents so far. Was hoping for the opposite.Great bet. Price may drop today on the DBacks like it did in game 1 of the Chicago series with Webb and Zambrano on the hill. I played Webb -108 and -111 that game, I don't expect to see those kind of numbers tonight, but -115 wouldn't surprise me.Dbacks for the series +120
The Houston Stallions
Footballguy
Took the rockies +118 myself. But I was on the Cubs and Yankees for the series so feel free to fade.
Sonny Lubick Blowup Doll
Footballguy
Sonny Lubick Blowup Doll
Footballguy
6 1/2 units to win 5 on the Rockies for the series.
GL everybody.
GL everybody.
MarshallPlan
Footballguy
The guy said the line should be Bos +100, Cleveland +110. Would you please book me 25k on Boston and 25k on Cleveland? Come on, I don't feel like really debating this - he's banking on the series not going 7 games. You have to make Boston at least -120 with having more home games than Clev - no brainer to me. Anyway, for tonight.
DBacks -126
Under 7' +114
Parlay: Under 7' +105/DBacks -130
I had no choice but to play the Under which was my lean anyway.
Sonny Lubick Blowup Doll
Footballguy
This is why I like you. Not afraid to really GAMBLE now and again.
Love being on the same side as SLBDThis is why I like you. Not afraid to really GAMBLE now and again.
MarshallPlan
Footballguy
A third of a unit loser tonight and Zona went down which makes my futures wager worse.The guy said the line should be Bos +100, Cleveland +110. Would you please book me 25k on Boston and 25k on Cleveland? Come on, I don't feel like really debating this - he's banking on the series not going 7 games. You have to make Boston at least -120 with having more home games than Clev - no brainer to me. Anyway, for tonight.
DBacks -126
Under 7' +114
Parlay: Under 7' +105/DBacks -130
I had no choice but to play the Under which was my lean anyway.
Sonny Lubick Blowup Doll
Footballguy
Gonna go in on the Tribe here...
Series or game 1?
The Houston Stallions
Footballguy
I'm liking Cleveland tonight +127.
Leroy Hoard
Footballguy
Sweeps have history on their side, just don't know how bad the odds will be when posted...
Angry Beavers
Footballguy
unless you take it -1.5
I admit being tempted to take the Rocks -1.5 last night and passed I think I may have to parlay the BOS/CLE over with COL -1.5I see many more runs this evening with Dice K and Westy. I have my doubts about Dice K pitching in the cold, and I am not a huge Westbrook fan at all.......
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Angry Beavers
Footballguy
Latest Pinny Lines:
Mon 10/15 961 Arizona Diamondbacks
M. Owings +1.5 -128 +165 OVER 9.5 -101
07:15 PM 962 Colorado Rockies
F. Morales -1.5 +118 -173 UNDER 9.5 -109
Mon 10/15 963 Boston Red Sox
D. Matsuzaka -1.5 +132 -121 OVER 9.5 -111
04:05 PM 964 Cleveland Indians
J. Westbrook +1.5 -142 +113 UNDER 9.5 +101
Mon 10/15 981 Away Runs +0.5 -103 +113 OVER 19.5 -105
04:05 PM 982 Home Runs -0.5 -107 -121 UNDER 19.5 -105
Mon 10/15 961 Arizona Diamondbacks
M. Owings +1.5 -128 +165 OVER 9.5 -101
07:15 PM 962 Colorado Rockies
F. Morales -1.5 +118 -173 UNDER 9.5 -109
Mon 10/15 963 Boston Red Sox
D. Matsuzaka -1.5 +132 -121 OVER 9.5 -111
04:05 PM 964 Cleveland Indians
J. Westbrook +1.5 -142 +113 UNDER 9.5 +101
Mon 10/15 981 Away Runs +0.5 -103 +113 OVER 19.5 -105
04:05 PM 982 Home Runs -0.5 -107 -121 UNDER 19.5 -105
RedRaiders
Mr. +EV
Owings has been solid in his September starts and his bat actually helps that pathetic lineup. That said, I can't imagine that dbacks team pulling a game out right now. I'm thinking under again but I'm on the fence with Morales out there. Both starters are really young.
Leroy Hoard
Footballguy
Ignoring win order; considering site order: The team winning Games 1-2 on the road and Game 3 at home (Colorado) has the following best-of-7 playoff series and games record:
Game 4 record, MLB only, all rounds: 11-2 (.846)
Game 4 record, MLB only, Semifinals round: 4-1 (.800)
Hate to bite the big chalk, but will go with the -175 & the sweep...
Game 4 record, MLB only, all rounds: 11-2 (.846)
Game 4 record, MLB only, Semifinals round: 4-1 (.800)
Hate to bite the big chalk, but will go with the -175 & the sweep...
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MarshallPlan
Footballguy
DBacks have been value every game this series, IMO and I've lost every one. I see no reason why I won't be on them again tonight at this great price, but I will likely lose.
