Bill Brasky
Footballguy
They just aren't getting the timely hitting in this series that they've been getting all year. It's not like they look outmatched out there at all.
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Baseball Playoff Wagering (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Green94
- Start date
Bill Brasky
Footballguy
Melvin must be pumped, I mean, he risked everything in game 2 just so he could get him in there to pinch hit. Worst move of the series IMO, it was clear that Valverde needed to be yanked and it cost them the game
Sonny Lubick Blowup Doll
Footballguy
I took this for the series actually.
Sonny Lubick Blowup Doll
Footballguy
Have the Rockies for the series, but still gonna play them tonight...-160.
Leroy Hoard
Footballguy
Yet another sweep winner, paid for at least half of my chicken dinner.
MarshallPlan
Footballguy
They weren't overmatched, I agree. With the price last night it was AZ or nothing, IMO and like the previous 4 games we take the loss. We move on...
RoarinSonoran
Footballguy
:finger: to Dbacks. 
Beware Bosox, as that finger is now limber and ready to point in your direction as well.
Beware Bosox, as that finger is now limber and ready to point in your direction as well.
Love being on the same side as SLBDThis is why I like you. Not afraid to really GAMBLE now and again.
GiantsRule
Footballguy
Question about the following prop:
Paul Byrd total pitches thrown O/U 81.5
Seems awfully low unless Byrd traditionally gets shelled, or pulled after 5 or so innings. Any concrete reasons not to take a flier on the over here?
Paul Byrd total pitches thrown O/U 81.5
Seems awfully low unless Byrd traditionally gets shelled, or pulled after 5 or so innings. Any concrete reasons not to take a flier on the over here?
Tremendous Upside
Footballguy
He had under 81.5 only 4 times all year...I do think the weather might come in to play here though...
One or two rain delays might mean him leaving earlier than he otherwise might...
Sonny Lubick Blowup Doll
Footballguy
Love being on the same side as SLBDThis is why I like you. Not afraid to really GAMBLE now and again.
Of course, you realize we were on the "wrong side" all 4 games right? Damn!!
Sonny Lubick Blowup Doll
Footballguy
On the Tribe tonight.
![[icon]](/data/avatars/m/5/5167.jpg?1660313464){kind=avatar}
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Insoxicated
Just checking back in.You get my point... fine.. 100 / -110... whatever. If you wanna be aThe guy said the line should be Bos +100, Cleveland +110. Would you please book me 25k on Boston and 25k on Cleveland? Come on, I don't feel like really debating this - he's banking on the series not going 7 games. You have to make Boston at least -120 with having more home games than Clev - no brainer to me. Anyway, for tonight.
DBacks -126
Under 7' +114
Parlay: Under 7' +105/DBacks -130
I had no choice but to play the Under which was my lean anyway.
and nitpick that's cool. My POINT was that Cleveland was a HUGE value at that price and the line was reflecting a massive boston favoritism (and I'm a boston homer). I wasn't trying to read vegas' mind.. I was trying to guesstimate the likely outcome of the series. Looking very much like I was right.Regarding the "banking on hte series not going 7 games....betting is playing the odds. If there's only a 10-15% chance the series goes 7 games then why hell WOULDN'T you seriously consider that when setting lines?
FACT: Cleveland is as good of a team as boston.
FACT: Boston's home field advantage (which you're giving a 20+% swing for) only comes into play if the season reaches a 7th game (and is actually in cleveland's favor at 5 games)
I would have considered this series a dead heat... perhaps a 10% edge to Boston. Your assertions of 20-40% were way off.
GiantsRule
Footballguy
I know this will end up screwing me over, but I grabbed Byrd total pitches over 83.5 (-115) from Sportsbook. Saw 81.5 at CaribSports but I can't use any of my credit cards there and assumed Sportsbook had similar odds.Bank on 82 to 83 total pitches by Byrd tonight!
Good luck to all!
My book doesn't offer prop bets on pitches....but I would be on Byrd under 83.5 pitches.
Day off tomorrow
Cleveland's bullpen been good.
I suspect that the Tribe isn't afraid to dip in to it early, especially in a tight game.
that being said, I hope he throws 90 pitches for you guys. g'luck
Day off tomorrow
Cleveland's bullpen been good.
I suspect that the Tribe isn't afraid to dip in to it early, especially in a tight game.
that being said, I hope he throws 90 pitches for you guys. g'luck
I'm on Boston tonight (-105) for 3 units
Wakefield's well rested if nothing else. I like the spot for the BoSox tonight, and I also believe the Tribe bullpen's been pitching a bit above their heads. I don't think the Sox want to go down 1-3, with Sabathia at home coming at them next game. I know a team doesn't play harder, but I think their patience at the plate will pay off tonight and they'll get a bunch of runners and hits. I also think Wakefield is underrated, perhaps due to his bad back, but I'll take my chances here.
FWIW, Boston series price is at +135 right now....which is a lot too low if they aren't favored to win tonight.
Just my two cents, but I've been awful at bases for the year. Great fade material in here.
g'luck
Wakefield's well rested if nothing else. I like the spot for the BoSox tonight, and I also believe the Tribe bullpen's been pitching a bit above their heads. I don't think the Sox want to go down 1-3, with Sabathia at home coming at them next game. I know a team doesn't play harder, but I think their patience at the plate will pay off tonight and they'll get a bunch of runners and hits. I also think Wakefield is underrated, perhaps due to his bad back, but I'll take my chances here.
FWIW, Boston series price is at +135 right now....which is a lot too low if they aren't favored to win tonight.
Just my two cents, but I've been awful at bases for the year. Great fade material in here.
g'luck
Sonny Lubick Blowup Doll
Footballguy
The over, even at 10, looks good to me tonight (already on the Tribe).
Sonny Lubick Blowup Doll
Footballguy
I'll have a bite (no discussion going on). While the many reasons the over looks good are obviously in the line, I still like it. Not gonna over-analyze it, just think that Wakefield and/or Byrd could get shelled. Rain delay issues only help.
If I liked the Tribe, I would be on the under.I like the Sox, I think over is a better betI'll have a bite (no discussion going on). While the many reasons the over looks good are obviously in the line, I still like it. Not gonna over-analyze it, just think that Wakefield and/or Byrd could get shelled. Rain delay issues only help.
Sonny Lubick Blowup Doll
Footballguy
So Wakefield can't get shelled tonight?If I liked the Tribe, I would be on the under.I like the Sox, I think over is a better betI'll have a bite (no discussion going on). While the many reasons the over looks good are obviously in the line, I still like it. Not gonna over-analyze it, just think that Wakefield and/or Byrd could get shelled. Rain delay issues only help.
GiantsRule
Footballguy
He won't, but thanks!
.25 unit parlay on Byrd +102 and Over 10
Sonny Lubick Blowup Doll
Footballguy
Mother F'n A. I was screwing around on the message board and I missed both bets. 
Have the Tribe for the series still but damn!
Have the Tribe for the series still but damn!
GiantsRule
Footballguy
11 pitches away and Byrd gets pulled after back to back homers. I suck. But the 8-pitch first inning didn't do me any favors.
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skinnypimp
Footballguy
Friggin unbelievable.8 pitches in the first inning. Off to a great start!
MarshallPlan
Footballguy
He's correct with the correlation. Home/Under, dog/Over. Wakefield can get shelled, but if so Cleveland doesn't bat in the 9th if they're leading. It's a small advantage, but one nonetheless.So Wakefield can't get shelled tonight?If I liked the Tribe, I would be on the under.I like the Sox, I think over is a better betI'll have a bite (no discussion going on). While the many reasons the over looks good are obviously in the line, I still like it. Not gonna over-analyze it, just think that Wakefield and/or Byrd could get shelled. Rain delay issues only help.
Sonny Lubick Blowup Doll
Footballguy
Jesus ####### christ you don't think I realize that?He's correct with the correlation. Home/Under, dog/Over. Wakefield can get shelled, but if so Cleveland doesn't bat in the 9th if they're leading. It's a small advantage, but one nonetheless.So Wakefield can't get shelled tonight?If I liked the Tribe, I would be on the under.I like the Sox, I think over is a better betI'll have a bite (no discussion going on). While the many reasons the over looks good are obviously in the line, I still like it. Not gonna over-analyze it, just think that Wakefield and/or Byrd could get shelled. Rain delay issues only help.
Win on the Tribe and split on the parlay... That works :X And give me Mr. Sabathia to close this thing out
If you can't hit Paul Byrd, well, you suck Boston
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Insoxicated
Jesus ####### christ you don't think I realize that?He's correct with the correlation. Home/Under, dog/Over. Wakefield can get shelled, but if so Cleveland doesn't bat in the 9th if they're leading. It's a small advantage, but one nonetheless.So Wakefield can't get shelled tonight?If I liked the Tribe, I would be on the under.I like the Sox, I think over is a better betI'll have a bite (no discussion going on). While the many reasons the over looks good are obviously in the line, I still like it. Not gonna over-analyze it, just think that Wakefield and/or Byrd could get shelled. Rain delay issues only help.
Leroy Hoard
Footballguy
Pinny prices:
Rockies vs Red Sox
991 Rockies +216
992 Red Sox -236
Rockies vs Red Sox
991 Rockies +216
992 Red Sox -236
Gotta throw something down on the Rox
Leroy Hoard
Footballguy
Yes, I hate betting rusty teams off a hot streak, but at those odds there isn't much choice.
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Insoxicated
Hoping Bodog gets off their asses and gets a line up before it's bet back down to +160 or so.
Angry Beavers
Footballguy
Damm - fell far for me
Col +170 risking just a unit
just because there is a lot of value there to be had.
GLTA
Col +170 risking just a unit
just because there is a lot of value there to be had.
GLTA
MarshallPlan
Footballguy
Common sense to me on how to bet this series if you like the Rocks. Anything less than +200 is no good, IMO.
Bet them game 1 to win at +200. If you win, quit because you've already made more than if you bet the Rocks for the series.
If they lose game 1 you are down a unit, but then bet them to win the series at at least 3:1.
Bet them game 1 to win at +200. If you win, quit because you've already made more than if you bet the Rocks for the series.
If they lose game 1 you are down a unit, but then bet them to win the series at at least 3:1.
If Colorado is at +200 or higher, you almost have to bet that as they should win a best of 7 against the Red Sox at least 1/3, probably closer to 1/2 the time.
I'm laying off the series....but will probably play a game here, and a game there.
Tonight I like Boston RL, and the under.....but haven't played anything yet. Have a big slate of UEFA Champions League matches to pound out first.
I'm laying off the series....but will probably play a game here, and a game there.
Tonight I like Boston RL, and the under.....but haven't played anything yet. Have a big slate of UEFA Champions League matches to pound out first.
The Houston Stallions
Footballguy
Gonna take Col for tonight for one unit and take Col in the series for 1. Also playing the under tonight. If Boston wins tonight, and they should...I'll put a couple more on Col for the series since the ML price will be through the roof!
Can't pass up the +200 for Col tonight though! Just in case they stay hot.
Can't pass up the +200 for Col tonight though! Just in case they stay hot.
The Houston Stallions
Footballguy
Just put them in. Col for tonight is still at +200. And the under 8.5 was at -105. Col for the series is at +175. I know it was higher earlier in the week. Maybe waiting til tomorrow is a better plan.
