What have the Rays done in the off season to warrant this adjustment?
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Baseball Wagering - Regular Season win totals (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter guru_007
- Start date
I know Baseball Prospectus had an article out there with them going 88-74 this year based on their projections. I just don't get that. When I try to look at these futures, the first thing I look at is pitching staffs, both starting and relief pitching.The Rays staff at present looks as follows:1 Scott Kazmir (L) (D.L.)2 James Shields ®3 Matt Garza ®4 Andy Sonnanstine ®5 Jason Hammel ®5 Edwin Jackson ®Kazmir is already out with arm problems which doesn't necessarily bode well for a young pitcher with a lot of innings on his arm, and the player this team wants to be their ace for years to come. Shields is a mediocre #3-#4 starter. Garza is another nice young pitcher, but very untested. After that, you're looking at a whole bunch of nothing (well, until you look at their minor leagues, Price, McGee Davis....but these guys are not going to be rushed up anytime soon).Their bullpen is anchored by the likes of Troy, coming out of retirement, Percival and Al, 88 mph heater, Reyes. Dan Wheeler makes a decent setup man (most of the time), but frankly their pitching is severely inferior to every team in this division, save the O's. that means their offense is going to be relied upon to score a lot of runs. Quite a bit of potential in that lineup, but I don't see it leading to much more than 72-73 wins. They remind me a lot of the Astros this year, good offense, no pitching. The AStros have the luxury of playing in the NL Central which is the weakest division in baseball. The Rays have to play in the AL East which is one of the most difficult divisions in baseball. Rays will have to have a lot of things break right, and a lot of players blossom simultaneously for this team to be near .500 this year. Until they can run out there 4 major league quality starters, and a real bullpen, this team is going to have trouble winning a lot of games, imo.
greedygoat
Footballguy
I know Baseball Prospectus had an article out there with them going 88-74 this year based on their projections. I just don't get that. When I try to look at these futures, the first thing I look at is pitching staffs, both starting and relief pitching.
The Rays staff at present looks as follows:
1 Scott Kazmir (L) (D.L.)
2 James Shields ®
3 Matt Garza ®
4 Andy Sonnanstine ®
5 Jason Hammel ®
5 Edwin Jackson ®
Kazmir is already out with arm problems which doesn't necessarily bode well for a young pitcher with a lot of innings on his arm, and the player this team wants to be their ace for years to come. Shields is a mediocre #3-#4 starter. Garza is another nice young pitcher, but very untested. After that, you're looking at a whole bunch of nothing (well, until you look at their minor leagues, Price, McGee Davis....but these guys are not going to be rushed up anytime soon).
Their bullpen is anchored by the likes of Troy, coming out of retirement, Percival and Al, 88 mph heater, Reyes. Dan Wheeler makes a decent setup man (most of the time), but frankly their pitching is severely inferior to every team in this division, save the O's. that means their offense is going to be relied upon to score a lot of runs. Quite a bit of potential in that lineup, but I don't see it leading to much more than 72-73 wins. They remind me a lot of the Astros this year, good offense, no pitching. The AStros have the luxury of playing in the NL Central which is the weakest division in baseball. The Rays have to play in the AL East which is one of the most difficult divisions in baseball. Rays will have to have a lot of things break right, and a lot of players blossom simultaneously for this team to be near .500 this year. Until they can run out there 4 major league quality starters, and a real bullpen, this team is going to have trouble winning a lot of games, imo.
Ok, good to know. Thanks for the write up.
Liquid Tension
Footballguy
I bet Baltimore and the under as there are just too many good teams they have to play without Bedard
commisholio
Come out with your pants down!
Hope you guys got on this one before the season started.Looking very dicey that the Giants will make 72 wins this year. I now expect them to lose more than 90. Their offense will be legendarily bad, this was known, but the defense is unexpectedly shaky too.
Sonny Lubick Blowup Doll
Footballguy
After one week, what teams would pick due to their start (aside form the obvious)? Any major injuries? I can still get in.
wilked
Footballguy
Sonny Lubick Blowup Doll
Footballguy
chisox o 78
cubs u 88
laa u 91
sd u 84
nym u 93
Doctor Detroit
Please remove your headgear
Overbacks
Alias
Footballguy
Tampa on pace for 97 (BP has them at 94.7)Boston on pace for 92 (BP has them at 92.9)
Yankees on pace for 87 (BP has them at 86.2)
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/statistics/ps_odds.php
Okay, it's only August 21st, but it's time for me to eat my crow here.The St Louis team just baffles me. If you had told me before the season, Pujols would miss a bunch of games due to injury, Carpenter would do nothing all year, Wainwright would go down early in the year, Isringhausen would be awful and out of the closers job in June, well, I would have been relaxed all season.Instead, this Cards team just plays great as a team, gets huge seasons out of guys like Ryan Ludwick, and is able to scrape together pitching from God knows where, and contends for the wild card. This was a big bet for me, as I think my capping was right on, but sometimes, when you're wrong, you're wrong.TB was a foolish pick really, I just saw what I thought was a huge overreaction to a mediocre team in a tough division. Instead, this mediocre team turns out to be a pretty damn decent team in a mediocre division. Fortunately, this was a small play, as I thought they would tinker on the cusp of 500 ball and coming down the stretch I could hedge my bet. But, well, awful decision here.Props to the board, almost all on the Rays over.Yanks under was mentioned prominently, and I should have just ran with that one like last year. Oh well. Still shaking my head about the Cards though.
NY/NJMFDIVER
Footballguy
Ooofa,one more reason I dont sports bet!
Doctor Detroit
Please remove your headgear
Over
Leroy Hoard
Footballguy
Easy money.
Sonny Lubick Blowup Doll
Footballguy
I was either really right, or really wrong. Only the Mets made it slightly interesting.3-2, I'll take it.chisox o 78
cubs u 88
laa u 91
sd u 84
nym u 93
Your Mother
Footballguy
i suck.
