Note: ADP based on three January drafts 1/2/3/1/1/1 lineup (best ball). 1 pt ppr (2 pt ppr TE), 1 pt / 10 yd rush and rec, 1 pt / 20 yd pass, all TDs = 6.
Shout out to ffweasel ADP Spreadsheet
The things we do to avoid tax preparation. As you read this, keep in mind that I tried to highlight value plays from the top to bottom of the draft and across all positions. Obviously the list could be deeper at RB/WR if I solely focused there and there are tons of sleepers out there. I also tried to stay focused on value plays that were stat or situational based rather then gut based (except for one instance).
Jay Cutler QB17 – I’ll admit that I was a detractor last year and think Shanahan kissed the season good bye pre-maturely. That said Cutler posted QB9 numbers during his starting role on a ppg basis. Cutler offers solid value as viable situational starter at this draft position.
Finished QB11, decent value, good call
Matt Hasselbeck QB8 – Last year most experts had him ranked in the top five. Hasselbeck has finished the fantasy in the top five twice in the last four years. I haven’t seen any changes in Seattle that would suggest a regression in the passing game. Branch should be adapted to the system in his second year and there are several other WR options on the roster even if DJax departs. Furthermore, a division which includes STL, SF, and ARI lends itself. Good players coming off injuries often offer opportunity.
Finished QB6 not bad.
Laurence Maroney RB17 – Interestingly enough his ADP was only a few spots behind this last year. Going to the tape, Maroney posted numbers of 175-745-6 rushing and 22-194-1 receiving in 14 games. I like those numbers, especially the receptions in split duty during a rookie campaign. If Maroney becomes the guy, his upside is huge in the NE system. I see 2006 as the absolute floor and really believe that Belichick was limiting his action as a rookie to keep him from hitting the wall as the Pats generally play more games than most teams.
RB25 missed
Lamont Jordan RB24 - Last year he was being drafted in the mid to late first and I warned of a bust. This year you can get him in the fifth round. Why was I waving the bust flag…Art Shell and his motel manager. Fast forward and 2007 brings a piece of the USC offensive juggernaut to hold the reigns. Kiffin has already stated there will be changes to the offensive. I wonder if the guy who watched Bush might notice that Jordan had 70 receptions in 2005? His drop-off in receiving numbers alone was about 120 ff points. The 2006 Raiders offense was a mess and Jordan’s stock has fallen accordingly. Ask yourself, is he any less skilled then he was in 2005?
RB41 missed
Damanick Williams RB46 – Who??? Per the blogger/ESPN…HOUSTON -- Domanick Davis appeared in Houston's locker room Monday with a new haircut and a new attitude. But the biggest change is in his name. "I'm a new man," he said. "That was Domanick Davis that y'all knew about. This is Domanick Williams that y'all looking at." Williams said he is feeling great and he can't wait to get back on the field. "I wouldn't say I'm 100 percent, but its close," he said. "It's on its way and it's going real good. My knee is allowing me to lift heavy weight without swelling up and that was the biggest
problem I had." I’ll take this risk with the upside in the 12th-14th round. Hey FBG.com, up date your site to reflect the correct name.
Missed
TJ Duckett RB62 – Call it a gut feeling, but I see him wearing Panther teal and black. Fox longs for a bruiser RB and will sign someone in the Stephan Davis mold this off season. Grab him now before he signs as his price will go up. Definitely worth a stab with your last round pick.
push - but its really a miss
Terrell Owens WR9 – Yeah, I can stand him either. Fact of the matter is that he’s finished in the top five WR on a ppg basis in 6 of the last 7 years and never lower than WR9 during those years. He’s the second best WR in the game behind Steve Smith and about 2 rounds undervalued. If your league let’s the LT owner select him, I hope that you have a monetary prize for second place.
Good call!
Javon Walker WR14 – This could be the biggest bargain of the year. He finished 2006 as WR9 people…after changing teams…coming off a major knee injury…with a rookie QB for half the year. He broke every fantasy football rule in the book. Last year’s production was his floor for this year. Walker is a top five WR.
Miss
Terrance Copper WR78 – At this stage in the off season, Copper is a must have flyer for me. Horn could very well be gone and Copper could be lining up across form Colsten. This is the game that stood out to me
http://www.nfl.com/gamecenter/live/NFL_20061112_NO@PIT Horn out, Colsten healthy, and Henderson available. Henderson is being drafted much higher, but I see him as the third WR. Regardless, WR flyers are best spent on players that play for explosive offenses.
Miss
Randy Michael TE12 – Three things you can count on; death, taxes (me putting them off), and McMichael being the last available third tier TE available in your draft. He finished 9th last year in the 2 ppr format with an unsettled QB situation and sparse TDs.
Miss
Eric Johnson TE26 – Johnson finished ranked #22 in 2 ppr leagues despite missing 4 games. Not sure of his home team this year, but he could land in a very good situation. You just can’t pass on top ten talent as the beer is running low at the draft.
push
John Kasey K17 – Don’t draft a kicker early. Kasey went 24/27 last year, with all three misses beyond 50+. Speaking of which, if you’re in a distance based league, he was 8/8 from 40-49 and 4/7 from 50+. I expect the Panthers offensive to bounce back enough to increase Kasy’s opportunities.
miss
Joe Nedney K20 – Just wanted to remind you that he finished ranked #7 last year.
miss
nice expression. H.K.: "When the black death comes to your door just ignore it and you will be fine".
Even more specifically, HK was looking for simple risk mitigation. If Walker finishes as WR5, HK likes his chances for a three-peat. Not much downside to losing a silly bet to Bass compared to the $ earned elsewhere. As of now, WR 15 - 20 seems about right. He was WR12 in PPR last year, and much worse than that with Cutler at QB. In our personal scenario, he has more value for the price of a low to medium WR2 to me than the cost of a high WR1.
Even more specifically, HK was looking for simple risk mitigation. If Walker finishes as WR5, HK likes his chances for a three-peat. Not much downside to losing a silly bet to Bass compared to the $ earned elsewhere. As of now, WR 15 - 20 seems about right. He was WR12 in PPR last year, and much worse than that with Cutler at QB. In our personal scenario, he has more value for the price of a low to medium WR2 to me than the cost of a high WR1.
Lets wait and see their situations first.
Lets wait and see their situations first.
