Beanie Wells Stud Potential (1 Viewer)

[NajehHejan]

I'm a big fan of the "eyeball" test. To me, Beanie Wells looks like a stud RB in the making. However, I also like to look at the past when trying to predict the future. We all know that Wells shared the load with Hightower last year, never started a game, and didn’t start getting the bulk of the carries until the second half of the year. He was able to amass 793 yards on 176 carries, for a 4.5 average with 7 TD’s. I love his potential if he gets say 250-275 carries, and possible more receptions (he caught 12 balls last year). But I wanted to look at the history books and see how many RB’s rushed for the same or less that Beanie in their rookie year and then could be defined as having gone on to be a “Stud” RB for at least a few years. Here are the RB’s who had less than or equal to Beanie’s rookie rushing stats in their first year, with 16 games played (not 16 games started).

Rk Player Year Age Tm Lg G GS Att Yds Y/A TD Y/G

1 Chris Wells

2009 21 ARI

NFL

16 0 176 793 4.51 7 49.6

2 Ron Dayne

2000 22 NYG

NFL

16 4 228 770 3.38 5 48.1

3 Roosevelt Potts

1993 22 IND

NFL

16 15 179 711 3.97 0 44.4

4 Darick Holmes

1995 24 BUF

NFL

16 2 172 698 4.06 4 43.6

5 Leon Washington

2006 24 NYJ

NFL

16 8 151 650 4.30 4 40.6

6 Natrone Means

1993 21 SDG

NFL

16 0 160 645 4.03 8 40.3

7 LeSean McCoy

2009 21 PHI

NFL

16 4 155 637 4.11 4 39.8

8 Shawn Bryson

2000 24 BUF

NFL

16 7 161 591 3.67 0 36.9

9 Greg Hill

1994 22 KAN

NFL

16 2 141 574 4.07 1 35.9

10 Reggie Bush

2006 21 NOR

NFL

16 8 155 565 3.65 6 35.3

11 Vaughn Dunbar

1992 24 NOR

NFL

16 8 154 565 3.67 3 35.3

12 Kenny Watson

2002 24 WAS

NFL

16 4 116 534 4.60 1 33.4

13 Kenton Keith

2007 27 IND

NFL

16 1 121 533 4.40 3 33.3

14 Jonathan Wells

2002 23 HOU

NFL

16 11 197 529 2.69 3 33.1

15 Travis Prentice

2000 24 CLE

NFL

16 11 173 512 2.96 7 32.0

16 John Avery

1998 22 MIA

NFL

16 0 143 503 3.52 2 31.4

17 Napoleon Kaufman

1995 22 OAK

NFL

16 1 108 490 4.54 1 30.6

18 Reggie Cobb

1990 22 TAM

NFL

16 13 151 480 3.18 2 30.0

19 Tashard Choice

2008 24 DAL

NFL

16 3 92 472 5.13 2 29.5

20 Raymont Harris

1994 24 CHI

NFL

16 11 123 464 3.77 1 29.0

21 Dexter Carter

1990 23 SFO

NFL

16 5 114 460 4.04 1 28.8

22 James Joseph

1991 24 PHI

NFL

16 3 135 440 3.26 3 27.5

23 Kolby Smith

2007 23 KAN

NFL

16 6 112 407 3.63 2 25.4

24 Tim Hightower

2008 22 ARI

NFL

16 7 143 399 2.79 10 24.9

25 Terry Kirby

1993 23 MIA

NFL

16 8 119 390 3.28 3 24.4

26 Mike Alstott

1996 23 TAM

NFL

16 16 96 377 3.93 3 23.6

27 Greg Lewis

1991 22 DEN

NFL

16 4 99 376 3.80 4 23.5

28 Amp Lee

1992 21 SFO

NFL

16 3 91 362 3.98 2 22.6

29 Jamaal Charles

2008 22 KAN

NFL

16 2 67 357 5.33 0 22.3

30 Erric Pegram

1991 22 ATL

NFL

16 7 101 349 3.46 1 21.8

31 Byron Hanspard

1997 21 ATL

NFL

16 0 53 335 6.32 0 20.9

32 Rodney Culver

1992 23 IND

NFL

16 2 121 321 2.65 7 20.1

33 Shaun Alexander

2000 23 SEA

NFL

16 1 64 313 4.89 2 19.6

34 William Floyd

1994 22 SFO

NFL

16 11 87 305 3.51 6 19.1

35 Leeland McElroy

1996 22 ARI

NFL

16 6 89 305 3.43 1 19.1

36 Brian Leonard

2007 23 STL

NFL

16 7 86 303 3.52 0 18.9

37 Vaughn Hebron

1993 23 PHI

NFL

16 4 84 297 3.54 3 18.6

38 LaMont Jordan

2001 23 NYJ

NFL

16 0 39 292 7.49 1 18.3

39 Brad Hoover

2000 24 CAR

NFL

16 4 89 290 3.26 1 18.1

40 Travis Minor

2001 22 MIA

NFL

16 0 59 281 4.76 2 17.6

41 Troy Davis

1997 22 NOR

NFL

16 7 75 271 3.61 0 16.9

42 Ki-Jana Carter

1996 23 CIN

NFL

16 4 91 264 2.90 8 16.5

43 Darrell Thompson

1990 23 GNB

NFL

16 0 76 264 3.47 1 16.5

44 Arlen Harris

2003 23 STL

NFL

16 2 85 255 3.00 4 15.9

45 George Jones

1997 24 PIT

NFL

16 1 72 235 3.26 1 14.7

46 Glyn Milburn

1993 22 DEN

NFL

16 2 52 231 4.44 0 14.4

47 Jerry Ellison

1995 24 TAM

NFL

16 3 26 218 8.38 5 13.6

48 Edgar Bennett

1992 23 GNB

NFL

16 2 61 214 3.51 0 13.4

49 LaBrandon Toefield

2003 23 JAX

NFL

16 0 53 212 4.00 2 13.3

50 Ahman Green

1998 21 SEA

NFL

16 0 35 209 5.97 1 13.1

51 Barry Foster

1990 22 PIT

NFL

16 1 36 203 5.64 1 12.7

52 Doug Chapman

2001 24 MIN

NFL

16 3 63 195 3.10 0 12.2

53 Winslow Oliver

1996 23 CAR

NFL

16 0 47 183 3.89 0 11.4

54 Robert E. Wilson

1991 22 TAM

NFL

16 15 42 179 4.26 0 11.2

55 Ben Gay

2001 21 CLE

NFL

16 0 51 172 3.37 1 10.8

56 Derrick Clark

1994 23 DEN

NFL

16 4 56 168 3.00 3 10.5

57 Justin Griffith

2003 22 ATL

NFL

16 11 38 168 4.42 0 10.5

58 Greg Jones

2004 23 JAX

NFL

16 3 62 162 2.61 3 10.1

59 Leon Johnson

1997 23 NYJ

NFL

16 1 48 158 3.29 2 9.9

60 Adrian Murrell

1993 23 NYJ

NFL

16 0 34 157 4.62 1 9.8

61 Alvin Pearman

2005 23 JAX

NFL

16 0 39 149 3.82 1 9.3

62 Jon Vaughn

1991 21 NWE

NFL

16 2 31 146 4.71 2 9.1

63 Terrell Fletcher

1995 22 SDG

NFL

16 0 26 140 5.38 1 8.8

64 Chad Morton

2000 23 NOR

NFL

16 3 36 136 3.78 0 8.5

65 Basil Mitchell

1999 24 GNB

NFL

16 2 29 117 4.03 0 7.3

66 John Harvey

1990 24 TAM

NFL

16 1 27 113 4.19 0 7.1

67 Marrio Grier

1996 25 NWE

NFL

16 0 27 105 3.89 1 6.6

68 Brandon Jacobs

2005 23 NYG

NFL

16 0 38 99 2.61 7 6.2

69 Jacob Hester

2008 23 SDG

NFL

16 3 19 95 5.00 1 5.9

70 Deuce McAllister

2001 23 NOR

NFL

16 4 16 91 5.69 1 5.7

71 Lex Hilliard

2009 25 MIA

NFL

16 0 23 89 3.87 1 5.6

72 Johnny Bailey

1990 23 CHI

NFL

16 1 26 86 3.31 0 5.4

73 Derrick Gainer

1990 24 CLE

NFL

16 1 30 81 2.70 1 5.1

74 Leonard Weaver

2005 23 SEA

NFL

16 0 17 80 4.71 0 5.0

75 Terry Jackson

1999 23 SFO

NFL

16 0 15 75 5.00 0 4.7

76 Ron Rivers

1995 24 DET

NFL

16 0 18 73 4.06 1 4.6

77 Jon Witman

1996 24 PIT

NFL

16 4 17 69 4.06 0 4.3

78 Rashaan Shehee

1998 23 KAN

NFL

16 0 22 57 2.59 0 3.6

79 James Rouse

1990 24 CHI

NFL

16 0 16 56 3.50 0 3.5

80 Bill Jones

1990 24 KAN

NFL

16 5 10 47 4.70 0 2.9

81 Eldra Buckley

2009 24 PHI

NFL

16 0 15 44 2.93 1 2.8

82 Jeremi Johnson

2003 23 CIN

NFL

16 13 15 41 2.73 1 2.6

83 Troy Fleming

2004 24 TEN

NFL

16 0 7 40 5.71 0 2.5

84 Kevin Turner

1992 23 NWE

NFL

16 1 10 40 4.00 0 2.5

85 Bruce Perkins

1990 23 TAM

NFL

16 3 13 36 2.77 0 2.3

86 Duce Staley

1997 22 PHI

NFL

16 0 7 29 4.14 0 1.8

87 Stanley Pritchett

1996 23 MIA

NFL

16 16 7 27 3.86 0 1.7

88 Rock Cartwright

2002 23 WAS

NFL

16 0 3 22 7.33 0 1.4

89 Chris Floyd

1998 23 NWE

NFL

16 2 6 22 3.67 0 1.4

90 B.J. Sams

2004 24 BAL

NFL

16 1 4 19 4.75 1 1.2

91 Le'Ron McClain

2007 23 BAL

NFL

16 11 8 18 2.25 0 1.1

92 Tim Tindale

1995 24 BUF

NFL

16 0 5 16 3.20 0 1.0

93 LaRod Stephens-Howling

2009 22 ARI

NFL

16 2 6 15 2.50 0 0.9

94 Jarrod Baxter

2002 23 HOU

NFL

16 10 7 14 2.00 0 0.9

95 Michael Bates

1993 24 SEA

NFL

16 1 2 12 6.00 0 0.8

96 Heath Evans

2001 23 SEA

NFL

16 0 2 11 5.50 0 0.7

97 Dexter McNabb

1992 23 GNB

NFL

16 0 2 11 5.50 0 0.7

98 Chris Warren

1990 22 SEA

NFL

16 0 6 11 1.83 1 0.7

99 B.J. Askew

2003 23 NYJ

NFL

16 0 2 9 4.50 0 0.6

100 Mike Karney

2004 23 NOR

NFL

16 8 3 7 2.33 0 0.4

This list troubles me. Even though Wells was held back by Coach Whisenhunt and the presence of Tim Hightower, there aren’t many studs to be found here. LeSean McCoy is a 2nd year player like Wells, so you can’t call him a stud. Reggie Bush has not been a stud. Jamaal Charles was studly in the 2nd half of last year, and could be a stud in the making. Shaun Alexander, Deuce McAllister, Lamont Jordan, and Ahman Green all had nice runs, but I’d probably only label Shaun Alexander and Deuce McAllister as studs. Brandon Jacobs has been ok, but you can’t call him a stud.

I know there are exceptions to all stats, but if you go by these stats, then Beanie’s chances of stud status are slim. Most stud RB’s had their yardage in their first year too, and did not take time to develop. Time to develop seems to be more of a QB and WR thing.

Thoughts? Am I overthinking this? I love the way Beanie runs, and like his potential a lot, but at his current ADP (and not being the official starter), history is against him???

ETA Deuce McAllister

 

[D'OHtis]

I think he's every bit the runner Peterson is. The ankle issues really put a negative swing on the way people viewed him. He landed in the perfect situation in Arizona. My big question with him was handing his weight -- and he's now working with the best strength and conditioning guy in the business IMO in John Lott -- which really lessened that concern with me.

As I imagine most people do, I expect Beanie to get 250+ carries with Hightower on 3rds this season.

 

[Ted Lange as your Bartender]

I'll happily take a Shaun Alexander, Ahman Green or Deuce-like career from Beanie.

Plus Beanie was younger as a rookie than most of the guys on your list, so there's room for physical growth and improvement, along with more years in his prime.

 

[NajehHejan]

I took another look at this. Rushing yards may not be the best barometer. It doesn’t take into account opportunity. I re-ran the numbers to see the list of rookie running backs (post merger) who played at least 14 games and had at least 4.5 yards/carry on at least 150 carries. Beanie averaged 4.51 yards/carry so I used 4.5 as the minimum. I also figured at least 150 carries was a good min as it shows they were involved in the offense to a good extent.

Nice list! Great company!

Rk Player Year Age Tm Lg G GS Att Yds Y/A TD Y/G

1 Maurice Jones-Drew

2006 21 JAX

NFL

16 1 166 941 5.67 13 58.8

2 Adrian Peterson

2007 22 MIN

NFL

14 9 238 1341 5.63 12 95.8

3 Franco Harris*

1972 22 PIT

NFL

14 9 188 1055 5.61 10 75.4

4 Clinton Portis

2002 21 DEN

NFL

16 12 273 1508 5.52 15 94.3

5 Duane Thomas

1970 23 DAL

NFL

14 8 151 803 5.32 5 57.4

6 Barry Sanders*

1989 21 DET

NFL

15 13 280 1470 5.25 14 98.0

7 Ickey Woods

1988 22 CIN

NFL

16 10 203 1066 5.25 15 66.6

8 John Brockington

1971 23 GNB

NFL

14 0 216 1105 5.12 4 78.9

9 Ryan Grant

2007 25 GNB

NFL

15 7 188 956 5.09 8 63.7

10 Mike Anderson

2000 27 DEN

NFL

16 12 297 1487 5.01 15 92.9

11 Kevin Mack

1985 23 CLE

NFL

16 15 222 1104 4.97 7 69.0

12 Craig James

1984 23 NWE

NFL

15 7 160 790 4.94 1 52.7

13 Ricky Watters

1992 23 SFO

NFL

14 13 206 1013 4.92 9 72.4

14 Chris Johnson

2008 23 TEN

NFL

15 14 251 1228 4.89 9 81.9

15 Herschel Walker

1986 24 DAL

NFL

16 9 151 737 4.88 12 46.1

16 Jerome Bettis

1993 21 RAM

NFL

16 12 294 1429 4.86 7 89.3

17 Ottis Anderson

1979 22 STL

NFL

16 16 331 1605 4.85 8 100.3

18 Corey Dillon

1997 23 CIN

NFL

16 6 233 1129 4.85 10 70.6

19 Tony Dorsett*

1977 23 DAL

NFL

14 4 208 1007 4.84 12 71.9

20 Earl Campbell*

1978 23 HOU

NFL

15 14 302 1450 4.80 13 96.7

21 Joe Delaney

1981 23 KAN

NFL

15 10 234 1121 4.79 3 74.7

22 Joseph Addai

2006 23 IND

NFL

16 0 226 1081 4.78 7 67.6

23 Steve Slaton

2008 22 HOU

NFL

16 15 268 1282 4.78 9 80.1

24 Reggie Brooks

1993 22 WAS

NFL

16 11 223 1063 4.77 3 66.4

25 Dominic Rhodes

2001 22 IND

NFL

15 10 233 1104 4.74 9 73.6

26 Rueben Mayes

1986 23 NOR

NFL

16 12 286 1353 4.73 8 84.6

27 Terrell Davis

1995 23 DEN

NFL

14 14 237 1117 4.71 7 79.8

28 Kevin Jones

2004 22 DET

NFL

15 14 241 1133 4.70 5 75.5

29 Eric Dickerson*

1983 23 RAM

NFL

16 16 390 1808 4.64 18 113.0

30 Fred Taylor

1998 22 JAX

NFL

15 12 264 1223 4.63 14 81.5

31 Clark Gaines

1976 22 NYJ

NFL

14 8 157 724 4.61 3 51.7

32 Curtis Dickey

1980 24 BAL

NFL

15 5 176 800 4.55 11 53.3

33 Jonathan Stewart

2008 21 CAR

NFL

16 0 184 836 4.54 10 52.3

34 Chris Wells

2009 21 ARI

NFL

16 0 176 793 4.51 7 49.6

 

[KCC]

One thing to consider is that the Arizona passing game will be far less intimidating to opposing defenses this year, which will allow defensive coordinators to focus more attention on stopping Arizona's rushing game.

 

[Grahamburn]

I'm a big fan of the "eyeball" test. To me, Beanie Wells looks like a stud RB in the making. However, I also like to look at the past when trying to predict the future. We all know that Wells shared the load with Hightower last year, never started a game, and didn’t start getting the bulk of the carries until the second half of the year. He was able to amass 793 yards on 176 carries, for a 4.5 average with 7 TD’s. I love his potential if he gets say 250-275 carries, and possible more receptions (he caught 12 balls last year).

This is all you really need to worry about. Chris Wells becomes a "stud" as early as this season. Their 2010 schedule against the run is gravy. He's going to be a major contributor to successful fantasy teams this season and beyond.Beanie is a monster at 6'1 240, extremely fast for being that big(4.38 40 at his pro day), has great initial burst, is underrated as a receiver, and should bring a big-play component to the Cardinals running game with his agility and ability to break tackles.

With the loss of Kurt Warner and the addition of Alan Faneca to an already improving offensive line it seems obvious that Arizona is looking to alter their run/pass ratio to a more balanced attack (if not run heavy), and Chris Wells should be the direct beneficiary of that change in offensive philosophy.

It would be criminal to give him anything less than 250 carries this season. The perennially underrated Tim Hightower isn't going away, but his skillset doesn't match that of Wells. Hightower will be a 3rd and 5+ running back this season that should take a few short yardage and goalline carries.

Even with Leinart at QB defenses still have to respect Fitzgerald, Breaston, and Doucet leaving a juggernaught of a running back against 7 man fronts.

I posted these highlights in Wells' spotlight thread, but I'll put it in here as well. When Beanie started getting more consistently involved in the running game he showed his "stud" potential.

:drool:

 

[Grahamburn]

That was a much more impressive group of runners the second time running those numbers.

 

[Grahamburn]

One thing to consider is that the Arizona passing game will be far less intimidating to opposing defenses this year, which will allow defensive coordinators to focus more attention on stopping Arizona's rushing game.

I doubt too many defensive coordinators are going to leave Larry Fitzgerald in single coverage regardless of who the QB is.I'm also in the small minority that things Matt Leinart may surprise some people this year though.

 

[Chase Stuart]

Here are the RB’s who had less than or equal to Beanie’s rookie rushing stats in their first year, with 16 games played (not 16 games started).

...

I know there are exceptions to all stats, but if you go by these stats, then Beanie’s chances of stud status are slim. Most stud RB’s had their yardage in their first year too, and did not take time to develop.

I took another look at this. Rushing yards may not be the best barometer. It doesn’t take into account opportunity. I re-ran the numbers to see the list of rookie running backs (post merger) who played at least 14 games and had at least 4.5 yards/carry on at least 150 carries. Beanie averaged 4.51 yards/carry so I used 4.5 as the minimum. I also figured at least 150 carries was a good min as it shows they were involved in the offense to a good extent.

Nice list! Great company!

If you really want to look at useful historical comps to Wells, neither of these approaches work well IMO. You don't want the guy you're looking at to be at the top or the bottom of your list of comps. If you look at all RBs with no more than 800 yards played, you're going to include lots of guys with no rushing success like B.J Askew. If you're going to include guys with at least 4.5 YPC -- a group in which Wells will be at the very bottom -- you're going to include guys who were much more successful like Eric Dickerson.Also, rushing yards *does* take into account opportunity. Rushing YPC doesn't take into account opportunity, although that doesn't mean we shouldn't use it.

It probably makes sense to look at players with 40-60 rushing yards per game (Wells averaged 50 RYPG) and 4.25 to 4.75 YPC per game. Because Wells was only 21 last season, I'd only want to look at rookies who were 21 or 22. This still gives a group that's got an advantage over Wells (22 year old RBs, all other things being equal, do better than 21 year old ones) but that's mostly countered by the fact that YPC averages have been steadily rising lately, an advantage Wells will have over most of the group.

http://www.pro-football-reference.com/play-index/tiny/JRge4

For single seasons, from 1960 to 2009, in rookie season, from age 21 to 22, played RB, requiring Rushing Yds/Game >= 40 and Rushing Yds/Game <= 60 and Yds/Rushing Att >= 4.25 and Yds/Rushing Att <= 4.75, sorted by descending Year.

Game Game Rush Rush Rush Rush RushRk			 Player Year Age  Tm  Lg	G   GS  Att  Yds  Y/A   TD  Y/G1		 Chris Wells 2009  21 ARI NFL   16	0  176  793 4.51	7 49.62	Jonathan Stewart 2008  21 CAR NFL   16	0  184  836 4.54   10 52.33	Laurence Maroney 2006  21 NWE NFL   14	0  175  745 4.26	6 53.24	 Thurman Thomas* 1988  22 BUF NFL   15   15  207  881 4.26	2 58.75		Tony Collins 1981  22 NWE NFL   16   11  204  873 4.28	7 54.66	  Freeman McNeil 1981  22 NYJ NFL   11	6  137  623 4.55	2 56.67	   Rob Carpenter 1977  22 HOU NFL   11	7  144  652 4.53	1 59.38		Clark Gaines 1976  22 NYJ NFL   14	8  157  724 4.61	3 51.79	  Archie Griffin 1976  22 CIN NFL   14	0  138  625 4.53	3 44.610	  Sherman Smith 1976  22 SEA NFL   12	9  119  537 4.51	4 44.811	  Jim Bertelsen 1972  22 RAM NFL   14	8  123  581 4.72	5 41.512	  John Riggins* 1971  22 NYJ NFL   14   14  180  769 4.27	1 54.9

I think that's a pretty reasonable list of comparables. Two HOFers, one current star RB, a couple of players who were pretty good, and some busts.

 

[NajehHejan]

Here are the RB’s who had less than or equal to Beanie’s rookie rushing stats in their first year, with 16 games played (not 16 games started).

...

I know there are exceptions to all stats, but if you go by these stats, then Beanie’s chances of stud status are slim. Most stud RB’s had their yardage in their first year too, and did not take time to develop.

I took another look at this. Rushing yards may not be the best barometer. It doesn’t take into account opportunity. I re-ran the numbers to see the list of rookie running backs (post merger) who played at least 14 games and had at least 4.5 yards/carry on at least 150 carries. Beanie averaged 4.51 yards/carry so I used 4.5 as the minimum. I also figured at least 150 carries was a good min as it shows they were involved in the offense to a good extent.

Nice list! Great company!

If you really want to look at useful historical comps to Wells, neither of these approaches work well IMO. You don't want the guy you're looking at to be at the top or the bottom of your list of comps. If you look at all RBs with no more than 800 yards played, you're going to include lots of guys with no rushing success like B.J Askew. If you're going to include guys with at least 4.5 YPC -- a group in which Wells will be at the very bottom -- you're going to include guys who were much more successful like Eric Dickerson.Also, rushing yards *does* take into account opportunity. Rushing YPC doesn't take into account opportunity, although that doesn't mean we shouldn't use it.

It probably makes sense to look at players with 40-60 rushing yards per game (Wells averaged 50 RYPG) and 4.25 to 4.75 YPC per game. Because Wells was only 21 last season, I'd only want to look at rookies who were 21 or 22. This still gives a group that's got an advantage over Wells (22 year old RBs, all other things being equal, do better than 21 year old ones) but that's mostly countered by the fact that YPC averages have been steadily rising lately, an advantage Wells will have over most of the group.

http://www.pro-football-reference.com/play-index/tiny/JRge4

For single seasons, from 1960 to 2009, in rookie season, from age 21 to 22, played RB, requiring Rushing Yds/Game >= 40 and Rushing Yds/Game <= 60 and Yds/Rushing Att >= 4.25 and Yds/Rushing Att <= 4.75, sorted by descending Year.

Game Game Rush Rush Rush Rush RushRk			 Player Year Age  Tm  Lg	G   GS  Att  Yds  Y/A   TD  Y/G1		 Chris Wells 2009  21 ARI NFL   16	0  176  793 4.51	7 49.62	Jonathan Stewart 2008  21 CAR NFL   16	0  184  836 4.54   10 52.33	Laurence Maroney 2006  21 NWE NFL   14	0  175  745 4.26	6 53.24	 Thurman Thomas* 1988  22 BUF NFL   15   15  207  881 4.26	2 58.75		Tony Collins 1981  22 NWE NFL   16   11  204  873 4.28	7 54.66	  Freeman McNeil 1981  22 NYJ NFL   11	6  137  623 4.55	2 56.67	   Rob Carpenter 1977  22 HOU NFL   11	7  144  652 4.53	1 59.38		Clark Gaines 1976  22 NYJ NFL   14	8  157  724 4.61	3 51.79	  Archie Griffin 1976  22 CIN NFL   14	0  138  625 4.53	3 44.610	  Sherman Smith 1976  22 SEA NFL   12	9  119  537 4.51	4 44.811	  Jim Bertelsen 1972  22 RAM NFL   14	8  123  581 4.72	5 41.512	  John Riggins* 1971  22 NYJ NFL   14   14  180  769 4.27	1 54.9

I think that's a pretty reasonable list of comparables. Two HOFers, one current star RB, a couple of players who were pretty good, and some busts.

Chase to the rescue! It makes a lot of sense to run the numbers that way. Thanks for the insight and feedback.

 

[NajehHejan]

Also interesting to note that of all the different ways I looked at this, the name Jonathan Stewart always came up right above or below Wells. Stewart's potential has clearly been capped by Denagelo, but Wells has a much smoother road to a full workload.

 

[destro]

That list of comps looks much better. I like Wells as one of the very best (top 5ish) in the league in terms of pure rushing talent. In terms of fantasy success, having Hightower lingering, and his seemingly below average skills as a receiver do hold him back somewhat, but his talent and situation still make for a recipe for an elite fantasy career. I love him in all leagues and have him in virtually every league I am in. I consistently see people valuing/taking Greene over Wells, and it blows my mind.

 

[HoleFiller]

That list of comps looks much better. I like Wells as one of the very best (top 5ish) in the league in terms of pure rushing talent. In terms of fantasy success, having Hightower lingering, and his seemingly below average skills as a receiver do hold him back somewhat, but his talent and situation still make for a recipe for an elite fantasy career. I love him in all leagues and have him in virtually every league I am in. I consistently see people valuing/taking Greene over Wells, and it blows my mind.

Why? They are similar players in terms of talent, both have history of nagging injuries although Greene maybe more, both have similar running styles. Tim Hightower right now is a better version of what LT may potentially be with the Jets. So the Jets are the better team and have the better defense and Greene is a prototype of the kind of guy you want closing out a game.

I like Wells, but i think Greene could be on the verge of a big 3 to 4 year run here, he won't last longer than that with the way he runs.

 

[B. Nugget]

That list of comps looks much better. I like Wells as one of the very best (top 5ish) in the league in terms of pure rushing talent. In terms of fantasy success, having Hightower lingering, and his seemingly below average skills as a receiver do hold him back somewhat, but his talent and situation still make for a recipe for an elite fantasy career. I love him in all leagues and have him in virtually every league I am in. I consistently see people valuing/taking Greene over Wells, and it blows my mind.

Why? They are similar players in terms of talent, both have history of nagging injuries although Greene maybe more, both have similar running styles. Tim Hightower right now is a better version of what LT may potentially be with the Jets. So the Jets are the better team and have the better defense and Greene is a prototype of the kind of guy you want closing out a game.

I like Wells, but i think Greene could be on the verge of a big 3 to 4 year run here, he won't last longer than that with the way he runs.

I don't think they are close in terms of talent with Beanie way ahead of Greene in most categories, but I think Greene is getting ready to become Rudi Johnson and put together several good to great years of 1300-1500 yd 10-15 TD seasons based on his playing style, the offense and the opportunity in NY.

 

[gandalas]

Why? They are similar players in terms of talent, both have history of nagging injuries although Greene maybe more, both have similar running styles. Tim Hightower right now is a better version of what LT may potentially be with the Jets. So the Jets are the better team and have the better defense and Greene is a prototype of the kind of guy you want closing out a game. I like Wells, but i think Greene could be on the verge of a big 3 to 4 year run here, he won't last longer than that with the way he runs.

I don't think they are close in terms of talent with Beanie way ahead of Greene in most categories, but I think Greene is getting ready to become Rudi Johnson and put together several good to great years of 1300-1500 yd 10-15 TD seasons based on his playing style, the offense and the opportunity in NY.

I agree...after watching both in the Big-10 for 3-4 years in college, Beanie's talent clearly outshone Greene's. But Greene did the most with his talent at Iowa, and had the better college season in 2008. I think with that talented Jets O-line, that same scenario may repeat this year. I love Beanie's skill-set more, but Greene has a much better situation.

 

[FreeBaGeL]

Restricting this study to just running backs who played in all 16 games is just silly. So because Beanie Wells received two carries in week 3 rather than zero that differentiates him from guys who played in just under 16 games?

Ray Rice, Steven Jackson, Frank Gore, Michael Turner, and DeAngelo Williams had almost identical rookie seasons to Beanie Wells. But because they "played" in 14 games rather than 16 that somehow differentiates them in any way? Because those two extra games where Beanie got a whopping 5 carries are going to make the difference in the 150+ yards he had over all of them?

Some future stud running backs come out with stud rookie seasons. But not only do some come out with solid rookie seasons that show immense promise towards the future almost exactly like Beanie's, but MORE come out with seasons like that. Well over half of the top running backs right now had rookie years almost identical to what Wells did last year.

 

[DoubleG]

That list of comps looks much better. I like Wells as one of the very best (top 5ish) in the league in terms of pure rushing talent. In terms of fantasy success, having Hightower lingering, and his seemingly below average skills as a receiver do hold him back somewhat, but his talent and situation still make for a recipe for an elite fantasy career. I love him in all leagues and have him in virtually every league I am in. I consistently see people valuing/taking Greene over Wells, and it blows my mind.

I'm not sure why Wells has been branded with this misconception. Statistically speaking he had an 80% reception % (which is virtually identical to CJ, MJD and Forsett - all of whom are thought to be good pass catchers), was 2nd amoung RBs in yards per reception and top 20 amoung RBs in YAC/reception.

Now, if you want to question the fact that Arizona didn't use him that way, that's fine - but the limitation seems to be due to use, not ability. This is also likely a function of his weakness in pass blocking situations. As he becomes more proficient at that aspect of his game, he will likely see more playing time in those situations (which are typically the ones where RBs are thrown to as well), thus bumping up his reception numbers.

 

[destro]

That list of comps looks much better. I like Wells as one of the very best (top 5ish) in the league in terms of pure rushing talent. In terms of fantasy success, having Hightower lingering, and his seemingly below average skills as a receiver do hold him back somewhat, but his talent and situation still make for a recipe for an elite fantasy career. I love him in all leagues and have him in virtually every league I am in. I consistently see people valuing/taking Greene over Wells, and it blows my mind.

I'm not sure why Wells has been branded with this misconception. Statistically speaking he had an 80% reception % (which is virtually identical to CJ, MJD and Forsett - all of whom are thought to be good pass catchers), was 2nd amoung RBs in yards per reception and top 20 amoung RBs in YAC/reception.

Now, if you want to question the fact that Arizona didn't use him that way, that's fine - but the limitation seems to be due to use, not ability. This is also likely a function of his weakness in pass blocking situations. As he becomes more proficient at that aspect of his game, he will likely see more playing time in those situations (which are typically the ones where RBs are thrown to as well), thus bumping up his reception numbers.

The key word there was "seemingly." Given the fact that he was very underutilized in passing situations, it seems as though his pass catching skills were below average, or that Hightower is very much above average receiving the ball. Whatever the reason, the Cardinals staff felt that they frequently wanted someone else in on passing downs in 2009. As I said, I am definitely way on the Wells bandwagon, and love him in all leagues. It's just one potential knock you can come up with for him. I also am sure that he could be more than adequate in the passing game and force Whisenhunt to play him on those downs. Regardless, I still love him, even if he does loss some touches to Hightower in the passing game or is a slightly below average receiver, because I think his combination of rushing talent/age is among the top 5 in the league.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

One thing to consider is that the Arizona passing game will be far less intimidating to opposing defenses this year, which will allow defensive coordinators to focus more attention on stopping Arizona's rushing game.

Agree 100% with this

 

[destro]

One thing to consider is that the Arizona passing game will be far less intimidating to opposing defenses this year, which will allow defensive coordinators to focus more attention on stopping Arizona's rushing game.

Agree 100% with this

Hasn't this been more or less debunked here on FBG? Haven't there been many examples of mediocre to bad passing offenses that still manage to generate elite fantasy runningbacks? The most obvious example off the top of my head is Deangelo/Stewart with "Horsefeathers" Delhomme in Carolina. I'm sure in some cases, where the running talent is just average, and the OL play is average to below average, it will be difficult to develop a running game without a successful passing offense. But if the OL is solid and the running back is solid to great, I think the running game will still be successful regardless. I doubt Leinart is going to be Ken Dorsey-bad and ruin any chance of offensive production...

 

[Ministry of Pain]

One thing to consider is that the Arizona passing game will be far less intimidating to opposing defenses this year, which will allow defensive coordinators to focus more attention on stopping Arizona's rushing game.

Agree 100% with this

Hasn't this been more or less debunked here on FBG? Haven't there been many examples of mediocre to bad passing offenses that still manage to generate elite fantasy runningbacks? The most obvious example off the top of my head is Deangelo/Stewart with "Horsefeathers" Delhomme in Carolina. I'm sure in some cases, where the running talent is just average, and the OL play is average to below average, it will be difficult to develop a running game without a successful passing offense. But if the OL is solid and the running back is solid to great, I think the running game will still be successful regardless. I doubt Leinart is going to be Ken Dorsey-bad and ruin any chance of offensive production...

Are you comparing Ryan Kalil, arguably one of the best Centers in the game to Lyle Sendlein(who)? It's night and day the run blocking capability of Carolina on the interior of their OL vs what Arizona lines up. Now add the inept Leinart into the mix and you understand maybe where we are coming from. It's possible we're off our rockers but I believe I can see this clearly, to the point I don't even pause to 2nd guess it.

 

[Chase Stuart]

One thing to consider is that the Arizona passing game will be far less intimidating to opposing defenses this year, which will allow defensive coordinators to focus more attention on stopping Arizona's rushing game.

Agree 100% with this

Hasn't this been more or less debunked here on FBG? Haven't there been many examples of mediocre to bad passing offenses that still manage to generate elite fantasy runningbacks? The most obvious example off the top of my head is Deangelo/Stewart with "Horsefeathers" Delhomme in Carolina. I'm sure in some cases, where the running talent is just average, and the OL play is average to below average, it will be difficult to develop a running game without a successful passing offense. But if the OL is solid and the running back is solid to great, I think the running game will still be successful regardless. I doubt Leinart is going to be Ken Dorsey-bad and ruin any chance of offensive production...

Or the fact that two of the best three QBs in the NFL were paired with the worst two rushing attacks in the league last season.

 

[NajehHejan]

One thing to consider is that the Arizona passing game will be far less intimidating to opposing defenses this year, which will allow defensive coordinators to focus more attention on stopping Arizona's rushing game.

Agree 100% with this

Hasn't this been more or less debunked here on FBG? Haven't there been many examples of mediocre to bad passing offenses that still manage to generate elite fantasy runningbacks? The most obvious example off the top of my head is Deangelo/Stewart with "Horsefeathers" Delhomme in Carolina. I'm sure in some cases, where the running talent is just average, and the OL play is average to below average, it will be difficult to develop a running game without a successful passing offense. But if the OL is solid and the running back is solid to great, I think the running game will still be successful regardless. I doubt Leinart is going to be Ken Dorsey-bad and ruin any chance of offensive production...

Or the fact that two of the best three QBs in the NFL were paired with the worst two rushing attacks in the league last season.

I agree that the “Leinart is going to be so bad that the running game will suffer” is far overblown.A great RB will shine regardless of poor QB play. In addition to the Deangelo/Stewart example, here are more examples just in the past few years:Steven JacksonAdrian Peterson before FavreFrank Gore

 

[destro]

One thing to consider is that the Arizona passing game will be far less intimidating to opposing defenses this year, which will allow defensive coordinators to focus more attention on stopping Arizona's rushing game.

Agree 100% with this

Hasn't this been more or less debunked here on FBG? Haven't there been many examples of mediocre to bad passing offenses that still manage to generate elite fantasy runningbacks? The most obvious example off the top of my head is Deangelo/Stewart with "Horsefeathers" Delhomme in Carolina. I'm sure in some cases, where the running talent is just average, and the OL play is average to below average, it will be difficult to develop a running game without a successful passing offense. But if the OL is solid and the running back is solid to great, I think the running game will still be successful regardless. I doubt Leinart is going to be Ken Dorsey-bad and ruin any chance of offensive production...

Are you comparing Ryan Kalil, arguably one of the best Centers in the game to Lyle Sendlein(who)? It's night and day the run blocking capability of Carolina on the interior of their OL vs what Arizona lines up. Now add the inept Leinart into the mix and you understand maybe where we are coming from. It's possible we're off our rockers but I believe I can see this clearly, to the point I don't even pause to 2nd guess it.

First of all, the initial assertion I was responding to was that Leinart's play at QB would allow teams to stop the run, NOT that their OL wasn't good enough.Secondly, I'm pretty sure we both know that at no point did I claim or even imply that the Cardinals had an OL that was equal to that of the Panthers. What did I imply? I implied following: that a lot of teams with bad passing offenses still produce solid rushing games, that the Cardinals OL was at least solid, Wells running ability is well above average, and that Leinart/Anderson is not so bad that the offense will be incapable of moving the football. I'll also add that I think Delhomme was horrific and likely far worse than anything the Cardinals will have at QB this year. You could argue that the Carolina OL's exceptional play made up for quite a bit of that, but in the end the less bad QB and less effective OL should result in roughly the same level of opportunity for success running the football.

 

[NajehHejan]

One thing to consider is that the Arizona passing game will be far less intimidating to opposing defenses this year, which will allow defensive coordinators to focus more attention on stopping Arizona's rushing game.

Agree 100% with this

Hasn't this been more or less debunked here on FBG? Haven't there been many examples of mediocre to bad passing offenses that still manage to generate elite fantasy runningbacks? The most obvious example off the top of my head is Deangelo/Stewart with "Horsefeathers" Delhomme in Carolina. I'm sure in some cases, where the running talent is just average, and the OL play is average to below average, it will be difficult to develop a running game without a successful passing offense. But if the OL is solid and the running back is solid to great, I think the running game will still be successful regardless. I doubt Leinart is going to be Ken Dorsey-bad and ruin any chance of offensive production...

Are you comparing Ryan Kalil, arguably one of the best Centers in the game to Lyle Sendlein(who)? It's night and day the run blocking capability of Carolina on the interior of their OL vs what Arizona lines up. Now add the inept Leinart into the mix and you understand maybe where we are coming from. It's possible we're off our rockers but I believe I can see this clearly, to the point I don't even pause to 2nd guess it.

First of all, the initial assertion I was responding to was that Leinart's play at QB would allow teams to stop the run, NOT that their OL wasn't good enough.Secondly, I'm pretty sure we both know that at no point did I claim or even imply that the Cardinals had an OL that was equal to that of the Panthers. What did I imply? I implied following: that a lot of teams with bad passing offenses still produce solid rushing games, that the Cardinals OL was at least solid, Wells running ability is well above average, and that Leinart/Anderson is not so bad that the offense will be incapable of moving the football. I'll also add that I think Delhomme was horrific and likely far worse than anything the Cardinals will have at QB this year. You could argue that the Carolina OL's exceptional play made up for quite a bit of that, but in the end the less bad QB and less effective OL should result in roughly the same level of opportunity for success running the football.

:( Garrard (MJD) and Vince Young (CJ2K) aren't exactly lighting up the QB stats either.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

First of all, the initial assertion I was responding to was that Leinart's play at QB would allow teams to stop the run, NOT that their OL wasn't good enough.Secondly, I'm pretty sure we both know that at no point did I claim or even imply that the Cardinals had an OL that was equal to that of the Panthers. What did I imply? I implied following: that a lot of teams with bad passing offenses still produce solid rushing games, that the Cardinals OL was at least solid, Wells running ability is well above average, and that Leinart/Anderson is not so bad that the offense will be incapable of moving the football. I'll also add that I think Delhomme was horrific and likely far worse than anything the Cardinals will have at QB this year. You could argue that the Carolina OL's exceptional play made up for quite a bit of that, but in the end the less bad QB and less effective OL should result in roughly the same level of opportunity for success running the football.

I have a hard time finding 5 QBs I like less than Leinart...Delhomme, St Louis(Bradford), Buffalo...they are bottom 5 IMO.

 

[destro]

First of all, the initial assertion I was responding to was that Leinart's play at QB would allow teams to stop the run, NOT that their OL wasn't good enough.Secondly, I'm pretty sure we both know that at no point did I claim or even imply that the Cardinals had an OL that was equal to that of the Panthers. What did I imply? I implied following: that a lot of teams with bad passing offenses still produce solid rushing games, that the Cardinals OL was at least solid, Wells running ability is well above average, and that Leinart/Anderson is not so bad that the offense will be incapable of moving the football. I'll also add that I think Delhomme was horrific and likely far worse than anything the Cardinals will have at QB this year. You could argue that the Carolina OL's exceptional play made up for quite a bit of that, but in the end the less bad QB and less effective OL should result in roughly the same level of opportunity for success running the football.

I have a hard time finding 5 QBs I like less than Leinart...Delhomme, St Louis(Bradford), Buffalo...they are bottom 5 IMO.

Well, that's good to know, but I'm not sure how that refutes anything said in this thread.Meanwhile, of the teams in the bottom half of the league in passing offense in 2009, 10 of them were among the top 16 in rushing yardage. Those 10 include the three least productive passing offenses. So, in other words, the three worst passing offenses had at least average rushing offenses (New York Jets, Cleveland Browns, and the Buffalo Bills). Two of those teams, the Jets and Browns, both were in the top 10 in rushing yards. If you think that rushing yardage isn't the best measure of overall success running the football, you could try yards per carry average instead. The result is similar, though; 11 of teams with below average passing offenses end up in the top half of the league in terms of yards per carry.You could use this information to argue that "Bad passing team = Good Rushing team," and on the surface, it might seem somewhat convincing. These stats aren't exactly perfect, though, and don't control for enough variables to argue that point on their own. Fortunately, that's not my goal here. My goal here is to simply show that a below average passing offense, even if it's among the worst in the league, does not, in any way prevent you from having a productive rushing offense, especially if you have an elite talent at RB.

 

[Multiple Scores]

Wow, this topic has taken a great turn. Get a private chat going if you want to discuss Delhomme to death.

 

[GreatLakesMike]

That list of comps looks much better. I like Wells as one of the very best (top 5ish) in the league in terms of pure rushing talent. In terms of fantasy success, having Hightower lingering, and his seemingly below average skills as a receiver do hold him back somewhat, but his talent and situation still make for a recipe for an elite fantasy career. I love him in all leagues and have him in virtually every league I am in. I consistently see people valuing/taking Greene over Wells, and it blows my mind.

I'm not sure why Wells has been branded with this misconception. Statistically speaking he had an 80% reception % (which is virtually identical to CJ, MJD and Forsett - all of whom are thought to be good pass catchers), was 2nd amoung RBs in yards per reception and top 20 amoung RBs in YAC/reception.

Now, if you want to question the fact that Arizona didn't use him that way, that's fine - but the limitation seems to be due to use, not ability. This is also likely a function of his weakness in pass blocking situations. As he becomes more proficient at that aspect of his game, he will likely see more playing time in those situations (which are typically the ones where RBs are thrown to as well), thus bumping up his reception numbers.

The key word there was "seemingly." Given the fact that he was very underutilized in passing situations, it seems as though his pass catching skills were below average, or that Hightower is very much above average receiving the ball. Whatever the reason, the Cardinals staff felt that they frequently wanted someone else in on passing downs in 2009. As I said, I am definitely way on the Wells bandwagon, and love him in all leagues. It's just one potential knock you can come up with for him. I also am sure that he could be more than adequate in the passing game and force Whisenhunt to play him on those downs. Regardless, I still love him, even if he does loss some touches to Hightower in the passing game or is a slightly below average receiver, because I think his combination of rushing talent/age is among the top 5 in the league.

Beanie wasn't asked to catch the ball or pass protect very often at Ohio State. Tressel simply doesn't throw the RB's or TE's. It's no secret that Ohio State doesn't throw the ball often under Tressel, but when they do, Tressel is known to spread the offense out by lining up an extra slot WR or two. Beanie's lack of receptions in college, and his "problems" with pass protection more than likely are because of lack of reps in game situations. He did have a nice YPR last year, although the sample size was small.

 

[FreeBaGeL]

One thing to consider is that the Arizona passing game will be far less intimidating to opposing defenses this year, which will allow defensive coordinators to focus more attention on stopping Arizona's rushing game.

Agree 100% with this

Hasn't this been more or less debunked here on FBG? Haven't there been many examples of mediocre to bad passing offenses that still manage to generate elite fantasy runningbacks? The most obvious example off the top of my head is Deangelo/Stewart with "Horsefeathers" Delhomme in Carolina. I'm sure in some cases, where the running talent is just average, and the OL play is average to below average, it will be difficult to develop a running game without a successful passing offense. But if the OL is solid and the running back is solid to great, I think the running game will still be successful regardless. I doubt Leinart is going to be Ken Dorsey-bad and ruin any chance of offensive production...

Or the fact that two of the best three QBs in the NFL were paired with the worst two rushing attacks in the league last season.

I agree that the “Leinart is going to be so bad that the running game will suffer” is far overblown.A great RB will shine regardless of poor QB play. In addition to the Deangelo/Stewart example, here are more examples just in the past few years:Steven JacksonAdrian Peterson before FavreFrank Gore

We don't even need to look for examples. We can pretty much just go right down the list of top rushing attacks from last year and we'll notice that pretty much all of them played with poor passing games.Seriously, anyone still throwing out this argument is just being lazy. Hopefully sometime in the future we'll get past the point of throwing out random things that have no basis in reality because they sound pretty and make sense in our heads, which seems to be the majority of "points" being made on the boards nowadays.