In a non-PPR league this year, he was the #14 RB and had 1000+ yards and 10 tds. Obviously this was without Ryan Williams for the whole season and if the cardinals get manning beanie will probably be used less because he's weak at receiving. What do you think his production will be going into the future? Do you think he'll be a top 15 back for the next 2 years?
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Beanie Wells (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter nickdib
- Start date
Warhogs
Footballguy
I'm a bigger Beanie fan than most. I think the Cardinals will ease Williams into playing time for the upcoming season. Even if Williams is successful this coming year I think Beanie has a good shot at still being a productive RB either in Arizona or if he moves on to another team. He is still a very young RB.
Beanie showed that while injuries are still a bit of a concern, he can still play through them. It was a great "comeback" year for him. I think he continues to grow, and also see Williams being healthy as a good thing. Williams will be the guy out of the backfield that Beanie never was, so there isn't much of a loss there. If anything, Williams should take some stress off of Beanie, but I don't see Williams as an every down guy...so to me he's little risk to Beanie's job.
Touchdown There
Footballguy
Last year in a preseason Beanie Wells thread I wrote, "I am not a believer in his talent". Another poster was quick to write, "If talent is the only thing we are going to judge Beanie Wells on then he is going to be a super star".
Ryan Williams went on to rupture his patellar tendon and Beanie had all the opportunity in the world. Needless to say, Beanie did not turn into a superstar. I think he posted the best stats of his career last year, and I do not even see the starting RB role for Arizona as "Beanie's job".
Ryan Williams went on to rupture his patellar tendon and Beanie had all the opportunity in the world. Needless to say, Beanie did not turn into a superstar. I think he posted the best stats of his career last year, and I do not even see the starting RB role for Arizona as "Beanie's job".
wait, are you really using his performance last year as evidence his talent is questionable?
Shutout
Footballguy
Ohh c'mon man! You can't be serious.He played on bum knee all year and had some good games against some pretty good defenses, despite having absolutely NO threat of a passing game for almost the entire year. His coach has praised his toughness on multiple ocassions, the team, almost by default, MUST have a better passing game next season, and he is 23 years old.I really can't name 5-6 other teams that have a better lead RB opportunity than Beanie in terms of fantasy. He is a mortal lock to be the 75% portion of the combo in Arizona next season. I honestly thought people were being brutal towards beanie before the season last year and even during it. Its like they expect him to be Ray Rice every week and anything else is garbage. But the reality is there are only about 3 guys in the league right now with Ray Rice production and there are almost NONE who aren't missing games.Why can't people just see Beanie for what he is: a top 16-20 RB who is on a team that should improve, has little to no competition, and is YOUNG. Points-wise, the guy was basically the exact same as Frank Gore last year in terms of production. I bet if Frank Gore was 23 right now, he would be on of the most sought-after RBs in the league.I really think it's time to let the anti-Beanie biases go and accept it for what it is. people seem to be finally admitting they were wrong on Arian Foster. Apply that to Beanie and get yourself a good young RB.'Touchdown There said:
Lott's Fingertip
Footballguy
Beanie is an excellent runner, but a nearly non-existent receiver. That knocks him down to a probable RB2 upside. If the offense clicks and he gets bunches of TDs, he can be a RB1.
Of course, the biggest thing holding him back has been injuries. I don't generally prescribe to the injury-prone label, but Beanie has been hurt every year. I don't like knee injuries, either. He is a very effective runner due to his size/speed ratio, and an accumulation of knee issues will take a toll on his biggest asset, IMO. It isn't the death knell for him, but it is pretty hard to not discount his value until he can put together a whole injury-free year.
He was one of two starting RBs I had on my dynasty roster, and the only one with more than a 1 year contract, but I put him in a package as the 2nd piece to acquire the 1.01 rookie pick.
(Dez Bryant (5 yr), Beanie Wells(3 yr), Ryan Williams(2 yr), Denarius Moore (5 yr) and pick 13 were traded for pick 1.01)
Of course, the biggest thing holding him back has been injuries. I don't generally prescribe to the injury-prone label, but Beanie has been hurt every year. I don't like knee injuries, either. He is a very effective runner due to his size/speed ratio, and an accumulation of knee issues will take a toll on his biggest asset, IMO. It isn't the death knell for him, but it is pretty hard to not discount his value until he can put together a whole injury-free year.
He was one of two starting RBs I had on my dynasty roster, and the only one with more than a 1 year contract, but I put him in a package as the 2nd piece to acquire the 1.01 rookie pick.
(Dez Bryant (5 yr), Beanie Wells(3 yr), Ryan Williams(2 yr), Denarius Moore (5 yr) and pick 13 were traded for pick 1.01)
Touchdown There
Footballguy
This is exactly what I mean.
I think what we saw from Wells last year is about the ceiling. Perhaps, should Williams get hurt again, we could see a repeat performance. Wells' lack of receiving skills hurt his value. He's not a true 3 down back so will have to rely on high TD totals to approach top 10-12 status.
I see Williams playing a role next season. How large is anyone's guess, but given Beanie's injury history and the 2nd round investment in Williams, a 65/35 split in carries is realistic.
My initial projection is 1150 rushing yards and 7-8 TDs. My bet is he'll end up between RB 16 and 24, making him a legit RB II.
I see Williams playing a role next season. How large is anyone's guess, but given Beanie's injury history and the 2nd round investment in Williams, a 65/35 split in carries is realistic.
My initial projection is 1150 rushing yards and 7-8 TDs. My bet is he'll end up between RB 16 and 24, making him a legit RB II.
Billy Ball Thorton
Footballguy
HIS CEILING WILL NOT COME FROM AN INJURY PLAGUED SEASON. He will be top 15 this year .
Grahamburn
Footballguy
I love me some Beanie.Good goalline back with a nose for the end zone on a team willing to run near the stripe.'nickdib said:
He's got as good a shot as anyone to finish in the top 15 the next couple years. I also don't think he's a poor receiver. He just doesn't get many opportunities to catch the ball. There are highlights of him catching the ball in his rookie year, and he looked very fluid to me.The Cardinals have been pretty easy to defend the last couple years. Stop the running game, double Larry Fitzgerald. If that changes Beanie could improve on his 2011 numbers.
Lott's Fingertip
Footballguy
Yea, it is silly to take a year that had a lot go wrong and say that is that player's ceiling.What is Beanie's ceiling if he is healthy for 16 games and the Cards get good QB play? Certainly his ceiling in that case is not last year's stats...
Touchdown There
Footballguy
Those are two huge "ifs". Don't forget about Ryan Williams.
What do you think would happen to beanie's value if Peyton Manning comes to the Cards? I think it would go down considering manning would be throwing a lot and beanie isn't typically a pass catching RB
ExaltedOne
Footballguy
Yeah but Peyton would take a lot of pressure off of the running game, no more 8 in the box. Beanie would run wild.
ExaltedOne
Footballguy
I think Beanie still has a lot of upside. He's a young, powerful runner who does well when healthy. He will get the lions share of the carry, Ryan Williams or no. Because of this, I view him as a solid RB2, with RB1 upside if the Cardinals offense improves and he stays healthy.
Scooby1974
Footballguy
Addai seemed to do pretty well behind Peyton with a 10 and 12 TD seasons with over 1000 yards. That James kid did alright too.
Lott's Fingertip
Footballguy
I agree that those are two big ifs, and that Ryan Williams is a consideration.But the QB play can only go up from where it was, Ryan Williams is coming off a major knee injury (and has never played a regular season NFL snap), and a player is only injury prone until he isn't (Fred Taylor).The main point here is that when we are talking about a player's ceiling, we are assuming a few things will go right. One doesn't draft based entirely on ceiling, obviously, but one cannot talk about that ceiling with the assumption that most things will go wrong.It is a ceiling, not a projection.
Grahamburn
Footballguy
Who do you take over Beanie right now in a dynasty? He'll be a freshly turned 24 when the season starts.
RiceFosterMcCoyTrentForteMJDCJ2KCharlesMathewsDMCJstewADPThose are the guys (probably in that order) that I'm taking over Beanie in a Dynasty league.
Shutout
Footballguy
Yeah, for those of you who may not have seen much of the Cards last year, believe me when I say this is no exaggeration: It is DIFFICULT to imagine that the cardinals could possibly be more inept at the QB position in 2012 than they were last year. If they get manning, then I think its clear that Manning makes a lot of things better. Less men in the box...guys like Addai and James had very productive years with him.
If they do nothing, at least Kolb hopefully stays healthier and has learned the system more (remember, this was a NEW system to Kolb last season and he missed alot of time due to the lockout and games).
With any improvement, Beanie goes from a top 16-20 RB (depending on your format) to a relaistic 12-15.
I don't agree with those who say he CAN'T catch. The reality is the team has not been able to set that part of an offense up. He might just be serviceable in that area. But if we assume for a second that he really can't, it still leaves the reasonability open that he could be a Michael Turner. And Michael Turner ahsn't caught anything except colds for the last decade and has been a top 5, top 10, top 12 RB.
I still believe Beanie is vastly underrated.
If they do nothing, at least Kolb hopefully stays healthier and has learned the system more (remember, this was a NEW system to Kolb last season and he missed alot of time due to the lockout and games).
With any improvement, Beanie goes from a top 16-20 RB (depending on your format) to a relaistic 12-15.
I don't agree with those who say he CAN'T catch. The reality is the team has not been able to set that part of an offense up. He might just be serviceable in that area. But if we assume for a second that he really can't, it still leaves the reasonability open that he could be a Michael Turner. And Michael Turner ahsn't caught anything except colds for the last decade and has been a top 5, top 10, top 12 RB.
I still believe Beanie is vastly underrated.
Beanie cannot stay healthy. His talent is not an issue. It is his durability that limits his upside. Couple that with Ryan Williams, a mediocre o-line, and shaky QB play and I simply don't think he's ever going to be an RB 1. He's a respectible RB 2 but those who think he's top 10 or top 12 are overrating him. He's had durability issues forever.
wiscstlatlmia
Footballguy
I really can't get a read on this guy. His career could go a number of different ways right now. I'm not buying or selling him right now, just gotta wait and see IMO
Kitrick Taylor
Footballguy
What he said.Another thing to consider is just how devastating Ryan Williams injury really was. According to Rotoworld, his kneecap was in his thigh when he tore his patellar tendon. He just started jogging again. Other's that have suffered this injury are Cadillac Williams and Mark Clayton. Arizona could very well be in the market for a RB. They thought it was enough of a need last year to use a 2nd on Ryan Williams. They may be of the opinion Williams will never be the same, and that Beanie is constantly struggling to stay healthy. It would be a reasonable position for them to take anyway.
Sudoku_in_the_Bathtub
Footballguy
Except they were even more inept in 2010.... (Derek Anderson/Max Hall saga)Point stands though, Beanie carried this offense this past year.I think he's in RB12-15. His upside is obviously greater.
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Grahamburn
Footballguy
Please point me in the direction of the RBs that can stay healthy.
Shutout
Footballguy
Exactly.People talk on Beanie like he's the only starting RB in the league that ever misses games when the truth is exactly the opposite; there are only about 3, maybe 4 that DO NO miss time.
It happens guys. Even the great Adrian Peterson is now a man on the mend. Beanie can be Fred Taylor and get healthy. He can be a guy like Forte and play well for a while an then get hurt. Who knows? He IS a RB and RBS, sooner or later, miss time.
But what people are completely overlooking is that he DID perform well on a team that had nothing to help him succeed. The Cardinals have not been able to throw the ball since Warner left. Much like Fitz, I am more amazed at his success DESPITE the situation instead of because of it. So, when that situation does improve, and it will, what is not to like about a top 20 RB who is 23 years old?
My, how times have changed! It used to be that if you saw a 23 year old RB who put up numbers like this despite the obstacles, you tried to get him.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
The whole "injury prone", "can't stay healthy" rhetoric is the most lazy analysis in fantasy football.Yeah, um, that's great and all... except in Beanie's case it happens to be true. 
If we are talking about a true RB 1, which, according to many posts in this thread, people view Wells as, than durability is a major issue. i'm not arguing that Wells is not talented, I'm arguing that his track record is not suggestive of a player who will play every game, thus making him more realistically ranked in the mid to upper teens, and perhaps as low as the early 20s.
If you want to build your team and think Wells is a true #1 back...awesome. I wish you luck because I think you will need it. Wells had nagging injuries throughout college and seems to be plagued by the same maladies in the NFL...sorry not an RB #1 in my book.
Call the analysis lazy if you like, but the accuracy and veracity of the claim remains true.
If we are talking about a true RB 1, which, according to many posts in this thread, people view Wells as, than durability is a major issue. i'm not arguing that Wells is not talented, I'm arguing that his track record is not suggestive of a player who will play every game, thus making him more realistically ranked in the mid to upper teens, and perhaps as low as the early 20s.
If you want to build your team and think Wells is a true #1 back...awesome. I wish you luck because I think you will need it. Wells had nagging injuries throughout college and seems to be plagued by the same maladies in the NFL...sorry not an RB #1 in my book.
Call the analysis lazy if you like, but the accuracy and veracity of the claim remains true.
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Grahamburn
Footballguy
He's only missed 5 games in his 3 year career. I'd say that's probably about average in the realm of an NFL running back. Again, which RBs are any healthier than Chris Wells?Yeah, um, that's great and all... except in Beanie's case it happens to be true.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
How does the 4 games he's missed in three NFL seasons stack up against other NFL RBs?Yeah, um, that's great and all... except in Beanie's case it happens to be true.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
And one of those games was Week 17 of this season where the coaching staff decided to keep him out of a meaningless game since he was playing on a bad knee for most of the season.He's only missed 5 games in his 3 year career. I'd say that's probably about average in the realm of an NFL running back. Again, which RBs are any healthier than Chris Wells?Yeah, um, that's great and all... except in Beanie's case it happens to be true.
Which speaks exactly to my point...Wells is ALWAYS dinged.I don't have the numbers on games played for all NFL RBs and Wells does indeed deserve credit for playing through injuries, but you cannot argue that he doesn't have durability issues. It's been the same since he was at Ohio St., which is part of the reason he was picked, I think at #24 in round 1. He has top end talent but not top end durability.And one of those games was Week 17 of this season where the coaching staff decided to keep him out of a meaningless game since he was playing on a bad knee for most of the season.He's only missed 5 games in his 3 year career. I'd say that's probably about average in the realm of an NFL running back. Again, which RBs are any healthier than Chris Wells?Yeah, um, that's great and all... except in Beanie's case it happens to be true.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
I don't have him ranked as a RB1, but it's not because of durability concerns. I just see 12 better backs for fantasy football.The fact is almost every back misses a game or two per season. Wells is just as tough and durable as any back in the NFL though. He just has his best season playing through a knee injury that required off season surgery. Here's some of the other starting RBs that were injured and missed games last season:RB Jamaal Charles, KC Torn ACL - Out for seasonRB Arian Foster, HOU Pulled Hamstring - Missed 2.5 gamesRB Rashard Mendenhall, PIT Hamstring / ACL tear - Missed 3 gamesRB Darren McFadden, OAK Foot sprain - missed multiple gamesRB Frank Gore, SF Sprained ankle - limited in 2 games RB Steven Jackson, STL quad injury - Missed essentially 2 games and was limited in 3rd RB Peyton Hillis, CLE Strep Throat & Hamstring - missed MULTIPLE gamesRB Mark Ingram, NO 12 Bruised heel in week 6 - missed multiple gamesRB LeGarrette Blount, TB Knee - missed 3 games RB Jahvid Best, DET Concussion - out for seasonRB Felix Jones, DAL HAS, shoulder - missed 4+ gamesRB Ryan Mathews, SD - various missed parts of a few gamesRB Knowshon Moreno, DEN hamstring/ACL - missed games early, then out for the season RB Joseph Addai, IND Hamstring - missed ~3 gamesRB Marshawn Lynch, SEA Back - 1 gameRB Ryan Grant, GB knee - missed 2 gamesRB Tim Hightower, WAS torn ACL out for the yearRB Adrian Peterson, MIN knee - missed at four gamesRB Ahmad Bradshaw, NYG foot - missed at least 4 gamesRB Daniel Thomas, MIA hamstring - missed multiple games, limitedRB Fred Jackson, BUF - knee - out for the seaonRB Beanie Wells, ARI - knee - missed a game, limited in othersThat's 22 or well over 50% of the league (and I probably missed some).and that's leaving out backup RBs like Willis McGahee, Montario Hardesty, and Earnest Graham that were injured and missed games while replacing their team's starters and rookies like Mikel LeShoure and Ryan Williams who got injured during the preseason before they even got a chance.So is Beanie injury prone or are NFL RBs generally injury prone?Yeah, um, that's great and all... except in Beanie's case it happens to be true.
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ppl that drafted wells in rounds 4-6 last year got pretty damn good return. he may go too high to make it worthwhile this yr, but its not smart to dismiss guys.Yeah, um, that's great and all... except in Beanie's case it happens to be true.
thriftyrocker
Footballguy
Games missed isn't the issue here. It's how effective he was when he was limited. Some RBs seem to always be on the injury report but play well when they're in there. Wells has been a low 3 YPC back when dinged which was a majority of the season and all of previous season. He started very well and looked like the "95% of ADP" his talent ceiling suggests. Then he got hurt, struggled to get back into form, finally got healthy and had the huge record setting game vs. STL (where he probably wore out the dinged knee and came back in when he shouldn't have to set the team record), and then was pedestrian again the rest of the way. I like Wells, own him a few places, and am basically holding him. But you can't dismiss the "durability" concern. It is legitimate.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
This isn't entirely true - the game against the Rams came during a week many thought that he might not even play. In fact Beanie detractors used the fact that most of his owners benched him for the Rams game because of injury concerns (he only had 8 carries the previous week) as a knock against Beanie.Wells dispelled the whole "he can't play through injuries" knock in 2011 by playing in almost every game despite a serious knee injury - and playing well for the most part.
His coach seemed to be impressed:
Once again, some RBs just seem to get a rep on message boards and the "legend" just keeps growing until it becomes fact. I'd still love to hear who are the RBs in the NFL that don't miss games or get banged up - Ray Rice and Chris Johnson are the only backs that I can't remember missing any time due to injury during the last couple of seasons.
. I'm not dismissing him, but I'm not drafting him as an RB 1, either. He's a solid #2 RB IMO until he proves it. If he was so exceptionally durable, as some people contend, then why did the Cardinals draft Ryan Williams in the second round last year even though they had drafted Beanie in the first just two years prior?ppl that drafted wells in rounds 4-6 last year got pretty damn good return. he may go too high to make it worthwhile this yr, but its not smart to dismiss guys.Yeah, um, that's great and all... except in Beanie's case it happens to be true.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
No one said that - most people are only saying that he's no more and no less likely to get hurt than any other back in the NFL.
inzanitee
Footballguy
Boy I dunno about this. Do we know exactly what his knee problems have been the last couple of years? I may have missed it, but IIRC there always seemed to be vague descriptions of his knee injury, and he's had issues for more than one season. I'd be slightly leery of this; not that I'd stay away completely, I just think he may be a bit more prone to injury than some other RBs.
thriftyrocker
Footballguy
If you actually had to start him in a couple leagues last year you might disagree with that. Here's his YPC by week. It drops off a cliff after his two high usage days. He "played well" in a couple spots but had a long stretch of meh where he was noticeable less effective.5.0
6.6
DNP
5.1 (NYG - 3 TDs)
3.0
3.5 (Pit)
3.8 (Bal)
2.0
2.7
4.1 (SF - 8 carries)
8.4 (200 yard day)
3.4
1.8 (SF)
3.4
3.8
DNP (this actually mattered to me in an ESPN league)
There were also reports like http://www.azcentral.com/members/Blog/KentSomers/147985
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
Some of those weeks with low ypc came against tough defenses and he still produced from a fantasy standpoint during weeks where he had a low ypc (83 yds and a TD in that Baltimore game; 67 yards and a TD in the Dallas game; 51 and a TD in the Cleveland game).Sure after the Rams game he wasn't the same - but he was gutting out a serious knee injury that required offseason surgery. That wasn't Wells showing he couldn't play through the common nicks and soreness a RB plays through during the course of the season - this was him playing through a major injury while still being reasonably effective.
As previously brought up, the Arizona passing game wasn't scaring anyone at all further hindering his production.
I don't want to come across as a Wells apologist - as I said I don't view him as a RB1 - but at the same time I think the "injury prone" label is silly. I'm pretty sure we could play this exercise with a vast majority of NFL RBs - most slow down as the season wears on and most get banged up at various points of a season, and most have some poor games.
Grahamburn
Footballguy
Beanie played well most of the season and produced, much to the apparent chagrin of several posters here. He apparently can't quiet the critics.He still managed to have a solid season despite being "plagued by injuries," and overcoming "durability concerns." He seems like a good guy to buy considering some of the views here, because if he ever has a season where he doesn't get nicked up it could be huge.
Therein lies the rub. Have fun finding the NFL running back that doesn't get nicked up over a 16 game season...
To answer the OP's last question. Yes, I believe he's a top 15 RB for the next two years.
how much worse is that ypc distribution than other rbs? id imagine not much. football is an up and down game.
Grahamburn
Footballguy
I just read a couple old Calvin Johnson threads. It's amazing how quickly you can shake the "injury prone" labels. There were quite a few people down on him as well, and for similar reasons.
Now there's a poll on this board showing Calvin as the runaway 1.1 in startup dynasty drafts. Prior to this season he wasn't even the consensus #1 dynasty receiver.
Just saying.
Now there's a poll on this board showing Calvin as the runaway 1.1 in startup dynasty drafts. Prior to this season he wasn't even the consensus #1 dynasty receiver.
Just saying.
thriftyrocker
Footballguy
Okay, you'll give me that one. Now let's agree he wasn't the same for over a month after the NYG game and we're on the same page (see the beat reporter quote from the 1st STL game I gave above). He gutted out an injury and several aggravations to that injury and was noticeably better when closer to 100%. Luckily he only needed the knee scoped and his 2012 outlook isn't diminished, and it's TBD whether that's the script for him or if he can turn it around.'Dr. Octopus said:
