HANDICAPPING THE NFL STAKES
December 26, 2006
There is no team comparable to horse-racing's Secretariat, or any of the Triple Crown winners. There is no dominant team, heading into the postseason. The AFC team with the top record needed a last minute touchdown pass to slew Seattle. The NFC team with the best record is considering a change of jockeys. Here is how I handicap the race to win the Super Bowl.
Odds Team Trainer Jockey
2-1 Chargers Schottenheimer Rivers
5-2 Bears Smith Grossman
3-1 Ravens Billick McNair
9-2 Saints Payton Brees
5-1 Colts Dungy P. Manning
6-1 Eagles Reid Garcia
7-1 Cowboys Parcells Romo
7-1 Patriots Belichick Brady
10-1 Seahawks Holmgren Hasselbeck
12-1 Broncos Shanahan Cutler
15-1 Jets Mangini Pennington
20-1 Bengals Lewis Palmer
50-1 Giants Coughlin Manning
75-1 Packers McCarthy Favre
75-1 Jaguars DelRio Garrard
100-1 Titans Fisher Young
100-1 Rams Linehan Bulger
Chargers: The Chargers not only lead the NFL in scoring--with 10 more touchdowns than the next closest team--but this team is actually a better defensive team than offensive team. San Diego's defense leads the NFL with 60 sacks. There is a big question about the conservative nature of their coach in the postseason. There are questions about the young quarterback Rivers. Still, this team looks loaded compared to the competition.
Factoid that you should know about the Chargers: San Diego has won four games this year after trailing after three quarters.
Bears: Lovie Smith's team is the best team in the NFC, and maybe the class of the NFL. Still, there are problems. Troubles begin on defense. Opponents have scored touchdowns on 11 of their last 14 trips inside-the-red zone against the Bears. Of course, without Mike Brown, Nathan Vasher, and especially Tommie Harris, the Bears have not been at full strength since they were 6-0.
Factoid that you should know about the Bears: Backup quarterback Brian Griese has passed for more career yards and touchdowns than any quarterback in Bears history
Ravens: Baltimore didn't even qualify for the playoffs a year ago, but they are 12-3 this season. The Ravens have forced 37 turnovers (26 interceptions, 11 fumble recoveries). They have only turned the ball over 22 times, so they are +15 in turnover differential. They are +40 in sack differential. The Ravens have all sorts of hidden yardage (For instance, they are +327 in interception return yardage). Baltimore has 5 touchdowns on returns, and haven't allowed any.
Factoid that you should know about the Ravens: Baltimore has never gone into the playoffs seeded higher than 4th, prior to this season.
Saints: New Orleans was 3-13 last year, and is 10-5 with one game to go this season. The offense is the reason. Last year, the team scored 23 touchdowns. This year, it has scored 46 (with one game to go). Aaron Brooks and Todd Baumon combined to throw 15 touchdowns and 24 interceptions last year. This year, Drew Brees has thrown 24 touchdowns and only 9 interceptions. The Saints went from 31st in points in 2005 to fifth this season.
Factoid you should know about the Saints: Last year, the team committed 135 penalties. This year, it has been called for 75.
Colts: This team has the best jockey in Peyton Manning. This horse went off as an overwhelming favorite last year, only to finish out of the money. This year, it is coming off disappointing races in Dallas, Tennessee, Jacksonville, and Houston. The defense is a mess.
Factoid you should know about the Colts: Indianapolis is allowing 174.5 rushing yards per game, and 5.3 yards per rush. They have allowed 20 rushing touchdowns.
Eagles: Philadelphia has not only won four games in a row, but they won three straight road divisional games. Brian Westbrook has 1,214 rushing yards and 670 receiving yards. And he didn't make the Pro Bowl. Donovan McNabb was playing at a Pro Bowl level when he got hurt, with a passer rating of 95.5. Jeff Garcia has played even better. The two have combined for 28 touchdown passes. Only one team (the Colts, with 29) have more.
Factoid you should know about the Eagles: Brian Westbrook is averaging 5.1 yards per rush, fourth best among running backs (trailing only Maurice Jones-Drew, Frank Gore, and LaDainian Tomlinson).
Cowboys: In the last four games, Tony Romo has three games with a passer rating under 60. He has four touchdowns and seven interceptions in the last month. The Cowboys were staring at a first-round bye, but lost games home games to New Orleans and Philadelphia.
Factoid you should know about the Cowboys: If they do anything in the postseason, it will be because the defense comes around, probably led by linebacker DeMarcus Ware. Ware has 8.5 sacks, and needs three against the Lions on Sunday to set a franchise record for a linebacker. And this franchise has had some pretty fair linebackers.
Patriots: The smart money has to be on this team, fresh off their fourth consecutive division title. No team has the experience and big-game resume that the Patriots have. New England is 5-1 in its last six games, outscoring their opponents 144-73. Corey Dillon has played 42 games in his career with New England, and has scored 35 rushing touchdowns. For mere mortals (excluding Chargers great LaDainian Tomlinson) Dillon's numbers are superb. Tom Brady has thrown touchdown passes to 11 different players this season. That includes rookies Laurence Maroney (first-rounder), Chad Jackson (second-rounder), and tight end Dave Thomas (third-rounder). One of the two fourth-round picks, kicker Stephen Gostkowski, has replaced Adam Vinatierri and converted 18 of 23 field goal attempts.
Factoid that you should know: This team has allowed more than 21 points just once this season (27-20 loss to Indianapolis).
Seahawks: This team won some high stakes races last year, but have fallen in recent weeks. After starting out 3-0, the team is just 5-7, and losers of three games in a row.
But there are silver linings in addition to the clouds. Lofa Tatupu is back, and the defense held Philip Rivers to miss on nine of his 10 first-half attempts last week. Shaun Alexander had a pair of touchdowns, and is alive and well and in the Seahawk backfield.
Factoid that you should know about the Seahawks: Deion Branch dropped four passes last week.
Broncos: It's never an easy decision to change quarterbacks from a 13-3 team that went to the AFC Championship game the year before. That's what Mike Shanahan did, switching to rookie Jay Cutler. The results are promising. A win on Sunday against the 49ers assures a #5 seed, and a probable date at New England to open the playoffs. The defense still has holes, although the team has to be pleased with the secondary, led by Champ Bailey. In the first six games of the season, Denver allowed only two touchdowns. In their last nine games, they have allowed 25.
Factoid that you should know about the Broncos: If they can avoid the Chargers, the defense is outstanding. In two games versus San Diego, they allow 41.5 points per game. In all other games, it's under 15 points per game.
Jets: The Jets played a gutty game in rainy Miami on Christmas night. They converted nearly half their third downs, and committed only one penalty. They need only to defeat the Raiders to make the playoffs, after finishing 4-12 a year ago. Still, in the playoffs the arm strength of quarterback Chad Pennington and the questionable rush defense will do them in.
Factoid that you should know about the Jets: Eric Mangini is a big boxing fan, and shows his team films of great fights to motivate and inspire them. This week, my suggestion would be to show Joe Louis fight the "Bum of the Month." New York can't let down against Oakland.
Giants: The Giants fans are angry. They have a lame-duck general manager, and probably a lame-duck head coach. The team is 1-6 in its last seven games, winning only against the Panthers in that time. Tiki Barber has touched the ball 359 times and scored twice, or just two less times than he'll score for ESPN next year. They've lost four straight home games, gained only 142 yards last week against the Saints, their lowest total since they totaled 132 in the shutout loss to the Panthers in the playoffs last year.
Factoid that you should know: The Giants had 59 net passing yards against the Saints, despite a 55-yard touchdown pass 137 seconds into the game.
Bengals: They have offensive tackles Levi Jones and Willie Anderson back on the field, and they are a dangerous team. Will they be boxed out by the Broncos and Jets?
Factoid that you should know about the Bengals: One extra-point about the Bengals: 99.1% of the extra points in the NFL have been converted this season. The Bengals had converted 38 of 39 until the bad snap cost them in Denver last week.
Packers: Another team that has improved tremendously from a year ago. How hard will the Bears play them on Sunday night?
Factoid that you should know about the Packers: Even Eli Manning has outrated Brett Favre this season. Favre is only the 25th highest rated passer in the NFL.
Jaguars: This team was 8-5 after running over Indianapolis on December 10. Since then, the team has dropped two heartbreakers in a row, to the Titans and Patriots. The team has discovered one of the brightest stars in the league in Maurice Jones-Drew. Jones-Drew has scored 15 touchdowns (12 rush, 2 receiving, 1 punt return) this season. This would be a dangerous team to face in the playoffs.
Rams: Stephen Jackson and Marc Bulger are having super seasons. The Rams would be the division champs if not for two Josh Brown field goals at the end of both Rams-Seahawks games.
Falcons: This is your classic front-running horse. Jim Mora's crew finished 1-4 in 2005 to miss the playoffs. This year, they wasted a 5-2 start. Atlanta is 2-6 in its last eight games, and is virtually assured of missing the playoffs.
I admit a desire to see the expressions on the faces of you and your fellow 'AFC elitists' about six weeks from now, should a certain 'messed up' NFC team (not even worthy of being considered a top 5 team in the NFL - according to you) be celebrating a championship and be holding high the Lombardi trophy.
I admit a desire to see the expressions on the faces of you and your fellow 'AFC elitists' about six weeks from now, should a certain 'messed up' NFC team (not even worthy of being considered a top 5 team in the NFL - according to you) be celebrating a championship and be holding high the Lombardi trophy. 
Saints have won 4 out of their last 5. Averaging 29.5 ppg over that span (and scored 30 or more in 4 of those 5). Giving up 12.5 ppg in those 5 games, with a high of 17. The offense has been balanced - 18 TDs (9 rushing and 9 passing), with 2 300 yd passing games and 4 100 yd rushing days (three Deuce, one Bush) in those 5 games. Going into the playoffs, alot of teams would hope to be so "inconsistent".
